NBA · Mon, Nov 2 · 10:00 PM

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors

O/U 226.5 · SPREAD Golden State Warriors -3.5 · Chase Center

GARY'S PICK

NBAvs Suns· -105

Chase Center, 10 p.m. Eastern: Steph Curry and Draymond Green are back after sitting Sunday, and a Suns team on a two-game skid walks into the second night of a Warriors back-to-back. The schedule spot looks like it favors Phoenix. I don't think it does. Start by tossing out the first meeting. Phoenix won 131-122 on Oct. 24, but Golden State was on a back-to-back and played without Curry, Green, Brandin Podziemski and Al Horford. That short-handed group still lost by only 9 on the road. Tonight it's at home with its stars. The back-to-back tag is mostly a label. Curry and Green last played Friday, the same night Phoenix did, so the two players who drive this team are as fresh as anyone on the Suns. The tired legs belong to Podziemski (37 minutes Sunday) and Yaxel Lendeborg (34). Phoenix can't guard anybody. The Suns have allowed 122 or more in all four games, about 126 points per 100 possessions, and opponents are 68-of-155 from three against them. In Golden State's last three games with Curry, the Warriors scored 134, 119 and 112 and won by 20, 5 and 17, with Curry going 17-of-33 from deep. Denver tells the same story. Golden State won there by 20; Phoenix lost to the Nuggets at home by 7. Meanwhile Devin Booker is 8-of-26 over the last two losses, Jalen Green scored 2 on Friday and got pulled from the close, and Dillon Brooks has drawn flagrants in back-to-back games. The risks are real. With Horford, Gui Santos and Kristaps Porzingis out, Green plays center next to Georges Niang, and Phoenix scored 60 in the paint in the first meeting. Golden State also leaks late: Memphis closed on a 17-0 run, the Clippers ripped off 13 straight Sunday, and a 24-point lead at Minnesota became a 5-point win. The Warriors have turned it over 15 to 19 times every game, and Booker dropped 43 the last time. Still, a rested Curry against a defense that has given up 122 or more every night is the side I want. If Curry or Green is a late scratch, I'm off it.

The pick & result

Published pick: Golden State Warriors -3.5 -105
Published odds: -105
Result: Lost
Final score: 113-116

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Start by tossing out the first meeting. Phoenix won 131-122 on Oct. 24, but Golden State was on a back-to-back and played without Curry, Green, Brandin Podziemski and Al Horford. That short-handed group still lost by only 9 on the road. Tonight it's at home with its stars.

The back-to-back tag is mostly a label. Curry and Green last played Friday, the same night Phoenix did, so the two players who drive this team are as fresh as anyone on the Suns. The tired legs belong to Podziemski (37 minutes Sunday) and Yaxel Lendeborg (34).

Phoenix can't guard anybody. The Suns have allowed 122 or more in all four games, about 126 points per 100 possessions, and opponents are 68-of-155 from three against them. In Golden State's last three games with Curry, the Warriors scored 134, 119 and 112 and won by 20, 5 and 17, with Curry going 17-of-33 from deep.

Denver tells the same story. Golden State won there by 20; Phoenix lost to the Nuggets at home by 7. Meanwhile Devin Booker is 8-of-26 over the last two losses, Jalen Green scored 2 on Friday and got pulled from the close, and Dillon Brooks has drawn flagrants in back-to-back games.

The risks are real. With Horford, Gui Santos and Kristaps Porzingis out, Green plays center next to Georges Niang, and Phoenix scored 60 in the paint in the first meeting. Golden State also leaks late: Memphis closed on a 17-0 run, the Clippers ripped off 13 straight Sunday, and a 24-point lead at Minnesota became a 5-point win. The Warriors have turned it over 15 to 19 times every game, and Booker dropped 43 the last time.

Still, a rested Curry against a defense that has given up 122 or more every night is the side I want. If Curry or Green is a late scratch, I'm off it.

Injuries noted

Phoenix Suns: Mark Williams (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Shoulder Surgery

Golden State Warriors: Jimmy Butler III (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right ACL Repair / Surgery; Al Horford (Out) — Injury/Illness - Bilateral Low Back Injury Management; Moses Moody (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Patellar Tendon Repair / Surgery; Kristaps Porzingis (Out) — Not With Team; Gui Santos (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Knee Tendinitis; Brandon Williams (Questionable) — Injury/Illness - Left Quadriceps Contusion

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

GSW won last season's series 3-2
3-2
Golden State won three of five against Phoenix last season, but the average margin was 0.4 points. That is about as even as a series gets, so the record barely leans either way. Gui Santos is out tonight for the Warriors with a knee injury, which trims their depth a little.

REPLACEMENT

Kristaps Porzingis is OUT for GSW
OUT
Kristaps Porzingis is out for Golden State and away from the team indefinitely for personal reasons. With Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody also out, the Warriors' rotation is short.
Jimmy Butler is OUT for GSW
OUT
Jimmy Butler is out for Golden State as he recovers from a torn right ACL, with a possible return between January and February. This is a long-term absence the market already knows about.
Moses Moody is OUT for GSW
OUT
Moses Moody is out for Golden State as he works back from a ruptured left patellar tendon, with a possible return between December and January. A known, long-term absence.
Mark Williams is OUT for PHX
OUT
Mark Williams is out for Phoenix after left shoulder surgery. Phoenix's center rotation is thinner, though Golden State is short-handed in the frontcourt too.
Stephen Curry is OUT for GSW
OUT
Golden State is without Stephen Curry against Phoenix. He sat for rest on Sunday, the first game of a back-to-back, and is listed out again here. Check the final status before tipoff, since rest decisions can change, and the Warriors offense is a very different thing without him.
Draymond Green is OUT for GSW
OUT
Draymond Green is listed out for Golden State against Phoenix with back trouble. He sat Sunday, and earlier reporting expected him back for the second game of the back-to-back, so his status may yet flip. Check the final report before betting the Warriors side.
Drew Timme is OUT for PHX
OUT
Timme is on a two-way deal and is listed as out because he is with the G League side. A two-way player sitting is routine paperwork and rarely moves a line or a rotation, so this tells you little about how Phoenix plays at Golden State. Leave it out of your read on this game.
Gui Santos is Day-To-Day for GSW
Day-To-Day
Santos left Sunday's win over the Clippers at halftime with a knee injury and will not play against Phoenix. He is a bench forward, so his absence trims Golden State's depth a little in a matchup that was nearly even last season.

SITUATIONAL

GSW on a back-to-back, PHX rested
B2B vs 3d
Golden State played last night while Phoenix rested three days. The Warriors are also without Kristaps Porzingis, Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody, so a thin rotation on tired legs puts more weight on Stephen Curry.

STREAK

GSW has won 4 straight
W4
GSW won its last 4 by an average of 13.5; their last-10 mark is 4-3.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, rebet, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, draftkings, betmgm, betway.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
KHAMAN MALUACHREBOUNDS UNDER 7.5
NBAPhoenix Suns· -140
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2
The ceiling on this prop is Maluach's minutes, and the minutes are shrinking. He has played between 17 and 28 minutes in every game. Now Oso Ighodaro is healthy again. In his first game back Ighodaro played 21 minutes and grabbed 9 boards, while Maluach got pulled in the third quarter and finished at 17. Jordan Ott has a second big he trusts, and that big moves the ball the way this offense wants. The matchup pushes the same way. With Horford and Santos out, Golden State plays Draymond at center and spreads the floor with Niang and Lendeborg. A rookie seven footer gets dragged out to the arc in that look. He can't sit in the paint and collect misses, and small units like that tend to send a coach looking for a more mobile option late in games. Maluach also shares the glass with Miles Bridges, who has been clearing the defensive boards hard, and with a Dillon Brooks who goes after loose balls. His best game came against a Warriors team missing basically its entire rotation, and he still only reached 9. I will lay the price and take the under on a young center in a minutes squeeze against a team that wants to play him off the floor.
Khaman Maluach
Rebounds under 7.5
-140 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2
Phoenix Suns
The ceiling on this prop is Maluach's minutes, and the minutes are shrinking. He has played between 17 and 28 minutes in every game. Now Oso Ighodaro is healthy again. In his first game back Ighodaro played 21 minutes and grabbed 9 boards, while Maluach got pulled in the third quarter and finished at 17. Jordan Ott has a second big he trusts, and that big moves the ball the way this offense wants.
The matchup pushes the same way. With Horford and Santos out, Golden State plays Draymond at center and spreads the floor with Niang and Lendeborg. A rookie seven footer gets dragged out to the arc in that look. He can't sit in the paint and collect misses, and small units like that tend to send a coach looking for a more mobile option late in games. Maluach also shares the glass with Miles Bridges, who has been clearing the defensive boards hard, and with a Dillon Brooks who goes after loose balls. His best game came against a Warriors team missing basically its entire rotation, and he still only reached 9. I will lay the price and take the under on a young center in a minutes squeeze against a team that wants to play him off the floor.
GARY'S PICK
YAXEL LENDEBORGREBOUNDS OVER 7.5
NBAGolden State Warriors· +108
LOST · ACTUAL 5
Golden State takes the floor tonight without Al Horford and without Gui Santos, which strips two bodies out of an already thin frontcourt. That leaves Draymond Green playing center at his size and Georges Niang at the four. Niang has given this team almost nothing on the glass all season. The boards have to go to somebody, and Lendeborg has been that somebody whenever the minutes are there. He pulled 9 in the first meeting with Phoenix, 12 in Denver and 13 against Memphis. His one empty night came when he fouled out in 24 minutes, which tells you nothing about his role. Phoenix fires a heavy volume of threes and misses plenty of them. Long caroms off the rim land on the wings, which is exactly where a 6'9" forward who crashes from the perimeter makes his living. The Warriors also pounded the Suns on the offensive glass the last time these two met, so this matchup suits him. Curry coming back changes his scoring load. It does nothing to his rebounding, and with the bigs sitting he should log heavy minutes on the second night of a back to back. I am getting plus money on a guy who should clear this with normal minutes, and I will take that.
Yaxel Lendeborg
Rebounds over 7.5
+108 · LOST · ACTUAL 5
Golden State Warriors
Golden State takes the floor tonight without Al Horford and without Gui Santos, which strips two bodies out of an already thin frontcourt. That leaves Draymond Green playing center at his size and Georges Niang at the four. Niang has given this team almost nothing on the glass all season. The boards have to go to somebody, and Lendeborg has been that somebody whenever the minutes are there. He pulled 9 in the first meeting with Phoenix, 12 in Denver and 13 against Memphis. His one empty night came when he fouled out in 24 minutes, which tells you nothing about his role.
Phoenix fires a heavy volume of threes and misses plenty of them. Long caroms off the rim land on the wings, which is exactly where a 6'9" forward who crashes from the perimeter makes his living. The Warriors also pounded the Suns on the offensive glass the last time these two met, so this matchup suits him. Curry coming back changes his scoring load. It does nothing to his rebounding, and with the bigs sitting he should log heavy minutes on the second night of a back to back. I am getting plus money on a guy who should clear this with normal minutes, and I will take that.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NBA game this day The NBA record Today's NBA picks Every sport this day