TD Garden gets a 1-6 Bucks team tonight, but it won't get Jayson Tatum, who sits for rest with Boston in a stretch of eight games in 13 days. Milwaukee has earned its bad reputation, yet 11.5 asks a lot of this version of the Celtics. Boston has won by 12 or more just twice in seven games, and both came against Chicago. In the other five games, the Celtics are a combined -8, including home wins of 4 over the Knicks and 1 in overtime over the Nets. All of that came with Tatum playing. Tatum's absence hits the offense hard. Over the last five games, Tatum averaged 28.0 points and 7.4 assists and took 63 of Boston's 153 free throws. That has mattered with the Celtics shooting 45-for-159 from three over their last four games. The projected starting five is the same group that opened the 16-point loss at Houston, with Paul George in Tatum's spot. George can pass, but is 9-for-30 from three over the last four games played. Payton Pritchard is questionable with a shooting-shoulder injury and has missed all 12 threes over the last two games, and Devin Carter is out. Milwaukee also has real ways to stay inside the number. The Bucks average 15.0 offensive rebounds and 19.0 second-chance points, and Boston allows 17.0 second-chance points. The back door is open too. Boston led Chicago by 32 on Oct. 30 and won by 14, and a big lead tonight probably means an early night for George and Derrick White. Milwaukee scored 35 in the fourth against Cleveland and 31 against Houston with its starters mostly sitting. The risks are real. The Bucks allow 124.1 points a game, have given up 127 or more five times and scored just 100, 111 and 100 in their last three. They trailed by 33 and 26 after three quarters in their two worst losses. If Boston's shooters catch fire the way they did in a 21-for-44 night against Chicago, Tatum's absence won't matter much. The hook matters too, since two of Milwaukee's three road losses were by exactly 12. Still, this is a price play, not a vote of confidence in the Bucks. Give me Milwaukee and the points against a short-handed Boston team that hasn't shown it can win by this much against anyone but Chicago.
TD Garden gets a 1-6 Bucks team tonight, but it won't get Jayson Tatum, who sits for rest with Boston in a stretch of eight games in 13 days. Milwaukee has earned its bad reputation, yet 11.5 asks a lot of this version of the Celtics.
Boston has won by 12 or more just twice in seven games, and both came against Chicago. In the other five games, the Celtics are a combined -8, including home wins of 4 over the Knicks and 1 in overtime over the Nets. All of that came with Tatum playing.
Tatum's absence hits the offense hard. Over the last five games, Tatum averaged 28.0 points and 7.4 assists and took 63 of Boston's 153 free throws. That has mattered with the Celtics shooting 45-for-159 from three over their last four games. The projected starting five is the same group that opened the 16-point loss at Houston, with Paul George in Tatum's spot. George can pass, but is 9-for-30 from three over the last four games played. Payton Pritchard is questionable with a shooting-shoulder injury and has missed all 12 threes over the last two games, and Devin Carter is out.
Milwaukee also has real ways to stay inside the number. The Bucks average 15.0 offensive rebounds and 19.0 second-chance points, and Boston allows 17.0 second-chance points. The back door is open too. Boston led Chicago by 32 on Oct. 30 and won by 14, and a big lead tonight probably means an early night for George and Derrick White. Milwaukee scored 35 in the fourth against Cleveland and 31 against Houston with its starters mostly sitting.
The risks are real. The Bucks allow 124.1 points a game, have given up 127 or more five times and scored just 100, 111 and 100 in their last three. They trailed by 33 and 26 after three quarters in their two worst losses. If Boston's shooters catch fire the way they did in a 21-for-44 night against Chicago, Tatum's absence won't matter much. The hook matters too, since two of Milwaukee's three road losses were by exactly 12.
Still, this is a price play, not a vote of confidence in the Bucks. Give me Milwaukee and the points against a short-handed Boston team that hasn't shown it can win by this much against anyone but Chicago.
Bucks +11.5