NBA · Mon, Oct 26 · 7:30 PM

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics

O/U 232.5 · SPREAD Boston Celtics -13.5 · TD Garden

GARY'S PICK

NBA@ Celtics· -104

Chicago walks into TD Garden on its third game in four nights. The Bulls are 1-2, blown out once and scrapping in the other two, and they face a 1-1 Boston team coming off two days of rest. The Celtics lay 13.5 at home, and the question is whether they win by two touchdowns. Most of tonight is already in that number. The schedule was set before the line opened. Claxton and Williams are out for Chicago, but neither has played this season, so the Bulls bring the same rotation they've used in all three games. Carter is out for Boston and hasn't played either. Essengue being cleared adds a forward who logged 17 and 10 minutes in two appearances. Boston hasn't won big yet. The Celtics lost by 8 at Detroit. They beat a Knicks team that is now 0-3 by just 4 at home, after New York got within one with 1:41 left. They've scored 113 and 107. Two games is a small sample, but nothing so far says this group buries teams. Chicago doesn't need threes to score. The Bulls went 12-of-45 and 12-of-43 from deep and still put up 132 and 120. They lived at the line, going 28-of-30 both nights, and on the offensive glass, with 13 boards at Milwaukee and 21 at Toronto. That isn't a bet on shots falling, because nothing is due. The points simply come from somewhere else, and Boston has committed 26 and 22 fouls. Then there's tomorrow. Tonight opens Boston's first back-to-back, and Tatum has played 37 minutes in both games. With a big lead in the fourth, Boston has every reason to sit Tatum and George early and let Garza, González and Scheierman finish. At 13.5, those minutes matter. The risk is another Toronto. Chicago trailed 43-23 after one quarter that night and turned it over 27 times, nine of them by Wilson. Boston has forced 17 and 16 turnovers, George already has seven steals, and the Bulls have allowed 124 or more in every game. Wilson played 38 minutes Saturday, and Giddey has shot 1-for-10, 3-for-9 and 3-for-7. If the giveaways return, this one gets away. Still, the line already charges Chicago for its legs and its defense. Asking Boston to clear 13.5 with a back-to-back tomorrow is asking a lot. Small lean to the Bulls with the points.

Most of tonight is already in that number. The schedule was set before the line opened. Claxton and Williams are out for Chicago, but neither has played this season, so the Bulls bring the same rotation they've used in all three games. Carter is out for Boston and hasn't played either. Essengue being cleared adds a forward who logged 17 and 10 minutes in two appearances.

Boston hasn't won big yet. The Celtics lost by 8 at Detroit. They beat a Knicks team that is now 0-3 by just 4 at home, after New York got within one with 1:41 left. They've scored 113 and 107. Two games is a small sample, but nothing so far says this group buries teams.

Chicago doesn't need threes to score. The Bulls went 12-of-45 and 12-of-43 from deep and still put up 132 and 120. They lived at the line, going 28-of-30 both nights, and on the offensive glass, with 13 boards at Milwaukee and 21 at Toronto. That isn't a bet on shots falling, because nothing is due. The points simply come from somewhere else, and Boston has committed 26 and 22 fouls.

Then there's tomorrow. Tonight opens Boston's first back-to-back, and Tatum has played 37 minutes in both games. With a big lead in the fourth, Boston has every reason to sit Tatum and George early and let Garza, González and Scheierman finish. At 13.5, those minutes matter.

The risk is another Toronto. Chicago trailed 43-23 after one quarter that night and turned it over 27 times, nine of them by Wilson. Boston has forced 17 and 16 turnovers, George already has seven steals, and the Bulls have allowed 124 or more in every game. Wilson played 38 minutes Saturday, and Giddey has shot 1-for-10, 3-for-9 and 3-for-7. If the giveaways return, this one gets away.

Still, the line already charges Chicago for its legs and its defense. Asking Boston to clear 13.5 with a back-to-back tomorrow is asking a lot. Small lean to the Bulls with the points.

The pick & result

Published pick: Chicago Bulls +13.5 -104
Published odds: -104
Result: Lost
Final score: 99-134

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Still, the line already charges Chicago for its legs and its defense. Asking Boston to clear 13.5 with a back-to-back tomorrow is asking a lot. Small lean to the Bulls with the points.

Injuries noted

Chicago Bulls: Nic Claxton (Out) — Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain; Patrick Williams (Out) — Injury/Illness - Right Adductor / Groin Soreness / Tightness

Boston Celtics: Devin Carter (Out) — Injury/Illness - Illness

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

BOS won last season's series 2-1
2-1
Boston took 2 of 3 from Chicago last season, by 10 a game. Three games is a small sample, but the home side had the better of it. Chicago is without Nicolas Claxton tonight, and Boston has a 1-day rest edge. The history and the injury both tilt slightly toward Boston.

REPLACEMENT

Nicolas Claxton is OUT for CHI
OUT
Nicolas Claxton is out for Chicago with a left hamstring strain. Losing a big man shifts rebounding and rim protection to others. That can matter for the opponent's interior scoring tonight.

SITUATIONAL

BOS on 3d, CHI on 2d
3d vs 2d
Boston has 3 days of rest, and Chicago has 2. A 1-day gap this early rarely changes much, since both teams come in fresh. This is a neutral spot, so look at Chicago's missing Nicolas Claxton before the rest numbers.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: rebet, draftkings, caesars, fanatics, betmgm, fanduel, betrivers, ballybet, betparx, betway.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
MITCHELL ROBINSONREBOUNDS UNDER 7.5
NBABoston Celtics· +112
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 7
Robinson starts at center for Boston, and that's the only part of this job that's secure. He's played 18 and 22 minutes, and Queta has matched him in both games. Against the Knicks, Robinson picked up two fouls and sat three minutes in. Queta was on the floor for the final defensive possession. Boston's closing groups have used Queta or gone small with Hauser, so Robinson isn't there when the late minutes get handed out. He's pulled down 3 and 4 rebounds. A line of 7.5 asks him to roughly double that. Chicago makes it harder. The Bulls start Jalen Smith at center, and Smith has taken 15 threes in three games. When Robinson follows him to the arc, he's 25 feet from the glass when shots go up. When he doesn't, Smith shoots open. Chicago also gets to the line: 28 free throws twice, 34 at Toronto. A rim protector facing that many drives tends to pick up fouls, and fouls cut minutes. Tatum is grabbing 9 a night from the four, and George had 7 against New York, so the defensive boards are split several ways before Robinson gets his. Tonight also opens a back-to-back. With a double-digit lead, Boston has little reason to push a center who's already sharing time. What beats this is volume. Chicago misses a lot, with 85 to 98 shots a game and threes falling at a poor rate, so long rebounds will be everywhere. If Robinson stays out of foul trouble and plays 28 minutes, he can get to eight just by standing near the paint. I'll take plus money that he doesn't get that run.
Mitchell Robinson
Rebounds under 7.5
+112 · CASHED · ACTUAL 7
Boston Celtics
Robinson starts at center for Boston, and that's the only part of this job that's secure. He's played 18 and 22 minutes, and Queta has matched him in both games. Against the Knicks, Robinson picked up two fouls and sat three minutes in. Queta was on the floor for the final defensive possession. Boston's closing groups have used Queta or gone small with Hauser, so Robinson isn't there when the late minutes get handed out. He's pulled down 3 and 4 rebounds. A line of 7.5 asks him to roughly double that.
Chicago makes it harder. The Bulls start Jalen Smith at center, and Smith has taken 15 threes in three games. When Robinson follows him to the arc, he's 25 feet from the glass when shots go up. When he doesn't, Smith shoots open. Chicago also gets to the line: 28 free throws twice, 34 at Toronto. A rim protector facing that many drives tends to pick up fouls, and fouls cut minutes. Tatum is grabbing 9 a night from the four, and George had 7 against New York, so the defensive boards are split several ways before Robinson gets his. Tonight also opens a back-to-back. With a double-digit lead, Boston has little reason to push a center who's already sharing time.
What beats this is volume. Chicago misses a lot, with 85 to 98 shots a game and threes falling at a poor rate, so long rebounds will be everywhere. If Robinson stays out of foul trouble and plays 28 minutes, he can get to eight just by standing near the paint. I'll take plus money that he doesn't get that run.
GARY'S PICK
JOSH GIDDEYPOINTS UNDER 10.5
NBAChicago Bulls· -115
LOST · ACTUAL 11
Giddey runs Chicago's offense, but he isn't finishing it. He's scored 2, 6 and 9 on 7-of-26 shooting, with one made three. His nights come from the passing: 6, 9 and 10 assists. Wilson, Powell, Buzelis and Smith take the shots. With Wilson taking 20-plus a night and Powell close behind, Giddey's job is to get them the ball. He also isn't guaranteed the minutes. He's played 24 to 30, and at Milwaukee Chicago sat him for the finish and closed with Tre Jones. Essengue is back tonight, which adds another body to the rotation. If the game stays close, Billy Donovan already showed whom he trusts late, and Giddey isn't on that list. If Boston pulls away, the Bulls on their third game in four nights have no reason to ride their starters. Boston's backcourt isn't where shooting slumps end. White and George bring length to the perimeter, and George already has seven steals. Giddey doesn't get to the line much, so his points have to come from shots he hasn't been making. Boston will leave him open from three and dare him to take it. What beats it is one decent shooting night. He went 3-of-7 for 9 against Washington, so add a three or a couple of free throws and he's at 11. A long garbage-time stretch where he's looking for his own shot could do the same. For now, he hasn't shown he'll shoot enough to clear 10.5.
Josh Giddey
Points under 10.5
-115 · LOST · ACTUAL 11
Chicago Bulls
Giddey runs Chicago's offense, but he isn't finishing it. He's scored 2, 6 and 9 on 7-of-26 shooting, with one made three. His nights come from the passing: 6, 9 and 10 assists. Wilson, Powell, Buzelis and Smith take the shots. With Wilson taking 20-plus a night and Powell close behind, Giddey's job is to get them the ball.
He also isn't guaranteed the minutes. He's played 24 to 30, and at Milwaukee Chicago sat him for the finish and closed with Tre Jones. Essengue is back tonight, which adds another body to the rotation. If the game stays close, Billy Donovan already showed whom he trusts late, and Giddey isn't on that list. If Boston pulls away, the Bulls on their third game in four nights have no reason to ride their starters.
Boston's backcourt isn't where shooting slumps end. White and George bring length to the perimeter, and George already has seven steals. Giddey doesn't get to the line much, so his points have to come from shots he hasn't been making. Boston will leave him open from three and dare him to take it.
What beats it is one decent shooting night. He went 3-of-7 for 9 against Washington, so add a three or a couple of free throws and he's at 11. A long garbage-time stretch where he's looking for his own shot could do the same. For now, he hasn't shown he'll shoot enough to clear 10.5.

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