San Francisco 49ers picks

The unbeaten 49ers fly cross-country off a Monday-night game to face a Falcons team whose 2-4 record hides how different it looks with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. San Francisco is only a short favorite. I think this game is closer to a coin flip than the records suggest, which makes Atlanta at plus money the side I want. With Penix, Atlanta is 2-2. That's blowouts at Green Bay and New Orleans, an overtime loss to Baltimore and a 23-31 loss to Chicago that included three lost fumbles. Penix is 71-of-110 for 944 yards, 6 TD and 1 INT. The 0-2 start belongs to Cooper Rush. San Francisco's passing game shrinks this week. Mike Evans, the team leader with 420 receiving yards, is out. Deebo Samuel misses again, and Christian Kirk plays for the first time this season. That leaves Brock Purdy leaning on George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. The 6-0 record also looks bigger than the wins. The last four finished 23-17, 32-29, 24-14 and 36-30, against opponents who are now 1-4-1, 3-3, 4-2, 2-4, 0-5 and 2-4. Seattle handed over four takeaways and a defensive touchdown, and that game still finished 32-29. San Francisco also turns around from Monday to Sunday with a 10 a.m. body-clock kickoff, while the Falcons are home on seven days' rest. The case against is real. Atlanta won its blowouts running for 242 and 205 yards, and San Francisco hasn't allowed more than 122 on the ground. The Falcons gave up 5 and 3 sacks the last two weeks, while the 49ers have 4 and 5 without Nick Bosa. If Bijan Robinson gets bottled up and Penix has to throw from behind that line, Atlanta stalls. That's why this is a modest play. Any late news on Penix's ribs takes me off it. At +124, Atlanta doesn't have to be the better team. It only has to win a close game at home often enough, and I think it does.