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NFL · Sun, Oct 4 · 4:25 PM

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers

O/U 40.5 · SPREAD San Francisco 49ers -7.5 · Levi's Stadium

GARY'S PICK
49ers -2.5
NFLvs Broncos· -118

49ers
-2.5

-118 · CASHED · DEN 14 · SF 24

Broncos

The pick & result

Published pick
San Francisco 49ers -2.5 -118
Published odds
-118
Result
Won
Final score
14-24

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 44 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 28 6:00 AM
Close
Oct 4 4:16 PM
Move
SPREADSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-105)San Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)Price
TOTAL46.5 (-108)48.5 (-108)+2
MONEYLINESan Francisco 49ers -155San Francisco 49ers -165−10
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 28 6:00 AMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-105)46.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -155 · Denver Broncos +130
Sep 28 1:46 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-102)46.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 28 2:16 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-102)46.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 28 4:17 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)46.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 28 5:15 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)46.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 29 6:00 AMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-102)46.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 29 6:30 AMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (+100)46.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 29 8:30 AMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-102)46.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 29 1:04 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-105)46.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 29 2:04 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)46.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 29 4:05 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-105)47 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 29 6:08 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-102)47.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 29 8:09 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-102)48 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 29 10:09 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 30 12:09 AMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 30 6:00 AMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Sep 30 3:34 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 1 4:04 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 1 7:05 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 2 5:32 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 2 10:32 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 3 4:11 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 3 5:12 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 3 10:51 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 3 11:14 PMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115)48.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 4 5:00 AMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 4 6:30 AMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 4 7:30 AMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 4 7:41 AMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 4 9:21 AMSan Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118)48.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 4 10:50 AMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-102)48.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -160 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 4 11:00 AMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -160 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 4 11:10 AMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -160 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 4 11:20 AMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -160 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 4 11:50 AMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-105)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -160 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 4 12:00 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-105)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -165 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 4 12:10 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -165 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 4 12:20 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -165 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 4 12:30 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -160 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 4 1:20 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -165 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 4 2:46 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -160 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 4 3:08 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48.5 (-105)San Francisco 49ers -160 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 4 3:46 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48 (-118)San Francisco 49ers -165 · Denver Broncos +140
Oct 4 4:06 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -165 · Denver Broncos +140
CLOSEOct 4 4:16 PMSan Francisco 49ers -3 (-108)48.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -165 · Denver Broncos +140

The read

I'm laying the 2.5 because San Francisco has several ways to punish Denver's aggressive defense. McCaffrey's running and receiving, alongside Kittle, give Purdy alternatives when pressure arrives. Denver has allowed 143.7 rushing yards per game through three games. My read is that San Francisco can sustain offense even if its sack-free streak ends.

Denver's slow starts carry more weight for me than its comeback wins. It has scored just 10 first-half points across three games. Last week's victory included a pick-six and a penalty-assisted winning drive; I respect the recovery, but those events don't establish dependable offensive production. At this number, a San Francisco win by three covers.

The strongest argument against my pick is Denver's disruptive rush and San Francisco's depleted defensive front giving Dobbins room to get going. Bosa already missed last week's game; White's questionable status adds uncertainty, and Evans remains unresolved. Those risks, plus the small sample, keep my confidence moderate. I still trust San Francisco's ways of generating offense more than Denver's announced plans to fix its running game.

Injuries noted

Denver Broncos: Caleb Lohner (IR-R) — Lohner (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Broncos on Sunday with a designation to return, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports.; Nick Gargiulo (PUP-R) — Gargiulo (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Broncos on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Michael Deiter (IR) — ir; Matt Henningsen (IR) — ir; Levelle Bailey (IR) — Bailey (leg) reverted to the Broncos' injured-reserve list Friday, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.; Frank Crum (IR-R) — Crum (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Broncos on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Marvin Mims Jr. (Questionable) — questionable; Jonah Coleman (IR) — Coleman (ankle) is being placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Jaylen Waddle (Questionable) — Waddle is believed to be "fine" despite being seen wearing a walking boot on his right foot following Sunday's victory over the Rams, Sam Jane of The Denver Post reports.; Dondrea Tillman (Out) — Tillman (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers: Isaac Guerendo (PUP-R) — Guerendo (pectoral) was placed on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.; Brandon Aiyuk (Reserve-DNR) — Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Sunday that he's not viewing Aiyuk as an option for the 49ers while the club contends with multiple injuries at receiver, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.; Christian Kirk (IR-R) — Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Friday that the 49ers could open Kirk's (calf) practice window to return from injured reserve in two weeks, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.; Mykel Williams (PUP-R) — The 49ers opened Williams' (knee) 21-day practice window Wednesday to return from the reserve/PUP list, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; Ricky Pearsall (IR) — Knee - PCL; Andrew Farmer II (IR) — Back; Darrick Forrest (IR) — Undisclosed; Mikail Kamara (IR) — Knee; Sam Okuayinonu (IR) — Okuayinonu broke his foot in practice last week and is set to have surgery to repair the issue, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.; Brett Toth (IR) — The 49ers placed Toth (concussion) on injured reserve Sunday.; Nate Hobbs (IR) — ir; Nick Martin (IR) — The 49ers placed Martin (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Austen Pleasants (IR-R) — The 49ers placed Pleasants (knee) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Nick Zakelj (IR) — Zakelj (undisclosed) was placed on the 49ers' injured reserve Sunday.; Alfred Collins (IR) — San Francisco placed Collins (knee) on injured reserve Thursday.; De'Zhaun Stribling (IR) — The 49ers placed Stribling (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jake Tonges (IR) — Tonges (knee) requires surgery for an MCL tear and is done for the season, Cam Inman reports.; Keion White (Questionable) — questionable; Romello Height (Questionable) — questionable; Demarcus Robinson (IR) — The 49ers placed Robinson (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Mike Evans (Questionable) — Evans (ribs) has said "he'll do his best to be out there" Sunday against the Broncos, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; James Thompson Jr. (Out) — Thompson (ankle) won't play in San Francisco's Week 4 matchup versus the Broncos, Jennifer Lee Chan of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; C.J. West (IR) — The 49ers placed West (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Nick Bosa (Out) — Coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Bosa (calf) won't play this coming Sunday against the Broncos, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.; Dre Greenlaw (Questionable) — Greenlaw (quadriceps) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Denver.; KhaDarel Hodge (Questionable) — Hodge (knee) did not practice Wednesday, Vic Tafur of The Athletic reports.; Jaden Dugger (Questionable) — questionable

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Bo Nix is the projected starting quarterback for DEN

    6.5 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Bo Nix threw for 605 passing yards, completed 60.2% of his passes and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3931 yards, completed 63.4% and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt, 25-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

  • Brock Purdy is the projected starting quarterback for SF

    9.51 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Brock Purdy threw for 789 passing yards, completed 72.3% of his passes and averaged 9.51 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 2167 yards, completed 69.4% and averaged 7.63 yards per attempt, 20-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

TRENCHES

  • SF: 105.7 rushing yards allowed per game to DEN's 143.7

    38 YPG

    DEN is at 143.7 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; SF is at 105.7 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

PASS RUSH

  • SF: 0 sacks taken per game to DEN's 1.67

    1.67 SACKS

    DEN is at 1.67 sacks taken per game over 3 games; SF is at 0 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season DEN was at 1.77 over 17 games and SF at 1.8 over 17 games.

  • SF: 0 sack yards lost per game to DEN's 7.7

    7.7 YDS

    DEN is at 7.7 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; SF is at 0 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season DEN was at 9.5 over 17 games and SF at 10.7 over 17 games.

  • DEN: 2.67 sacks recorded per game to SF's 2

    0.67 SACKS

    DEN is at 2.67 sacks recorded per game over 3 games; SF is at 2 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • SF: 32.7 points per game to DEN's 20

    12.7 PPG

    DEN is at 20 points per game over 3 games; SF is at 32.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season DEN was at 23.6 over 17 games and SF at 25.7 over 17 games.

  • SF: 16.7 points allowed per game to DEN's 23.3

    6.7 PPG

    DEN is at 23.3 points allowed per game over 3 games; SF is at 16.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season DEN was at 18.3 over 17 games and SF at 21.8 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • DEN: 1.33 takeaways per game to SF's 0.67

    0.67 TO

    Denver has forced 1.33 takeaways a game over 3 games, double San Francisco's 0.67. In raw terms that is four turnovers against two, a gap of two plays. Takeaways are the noisiest defensive stat and rarely hold their pace across a season. Denver's edge is real on the sheet but too thin to lean on in this game.

  • SF: 0.67 turnovers committed per game to DEN's 1.33

    0.67 TO

    DEN is at 1.33 turnovers committed per game over 3 games; SF is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season DEN was at 1 over 17 games and SF at 1.29 over 17 games.

  • SF: 0.33 interceptions thrown per game to DEN's 1

    0.67 INT

    DEN is at 1 interceptions thrown per game over 3 games; SF is at 0.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season DEN was at 0.65 over 17 games and SF at 0.94 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • SF: 7.47 yards per play to DEN's 4.87

    2.6 Y/P

    DEN is at 4.87 yards per play over 3 games; SF is at 7.47 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season DEN was at 5.32 over 17 games and SF at 5.49 over 17 games.

RED ZONE

  • SF: 90% red-zone scoring rate to DEN's 60%

    30 PP

    DEN is at 60% red-zone scoring rate over 3 games; SF is at 90% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season DEN was at 57.9% over 17 games and SF at 65.2% over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • SF: 7.47 yards a snap to DEN's 4.87

    7.47 VS 4.87

    San Francisco's offense is gaining 7.47 yards a snap through 3 games, and Denver's is at 4.87. Last season they were nearly level, San Francisco at 5.49 and Denver at 5.32 over 17 games, so San Francisco's jump is the outlier and likely cools some. Denver needs long, patient drives to shorten the game and keep that offense on the sideline. If Denver stalls early, San Francisco's per-play edge has more chances to show up on the scoreboard.

COVERAGE

  • SF: 4.9 yards per play allowed to DEN's 5.57

    0.67 Y/P

    DEN is at 5.57 yards per play allowed over 3 games; SF is at 4.9 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

  • SF: 207.3 passing yards allowed per game to DEN's 237

    29.7 YPG

    DEN is at 237 passing yards allowed per game over 3 games; SF is at 207.3 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

REPLACEMENT

  • Christian Kirk (WR) is ir-r for SF

    IR-R

    Kirk is on injured reserve with a calf injury and still a ways off. Kyle Shanahan said Friday the 49ers could open his practice window in two weeks, which rules him out against Denver and leaves the receiver group thin. Expect the targets to stay with the healthy wideouts and tight end until his window opens.

  • Mykel Williams (DE) is pup-r for SF

    PUP-R

    Williams is on the PUP list with a knee injury, and the 49ers opened his 21-day practice window Wednesday, Sep 30. That starts the clock on a return, though he still needs to be activated to face Denver. Check the final injury report before counting on him in the pass rush.

  • Brandon Aiyuk (WR) is reserve-dnr for SF

    RESERVE-DNR

    Aiyuk is on the reserve list and Kyle Shanahan said Sep 21 he is not viewing him as an option, even with the 49ers short at receiver. Kirk and Demarcus Robinson are also on injured reserve, so San Francisco is thin at the position against Denver. Do not expect Aiyuk to factor in.

  • Jonah Coleman (RB) is on injured reserve for DEN

    IR

    Coleman went on injured reserve Sep 26 with an ankle injury, so he is out at San Francisco. The carries he would have handled go to the other Denver backs.

  • Demarcus Robinson (WR) is on injured reserve for SF

    IR

    Robinson went on injured reserve Sep 26 with an ankle injury, so he misses Denver. He joins Kirk on injured reserve, which leaves the 49ers short at receiver. The healthy wideouts and tight end pick up his targets.

  • C.J. West (DT) is on injured reserve for SF

    IR

    West went on injured reserve Sep 23 with an undisclosed injury, so he is out against Denver. His snaps on the defensive interior go to the other 49ers tackles.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Nick Bosa

    Out

    Knee, Calf · Did not practice · Out

  • James Thompson Jr.

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Dondrea Tillman

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Dre Greenlaw

    Questionable

    Quadricep · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Jaden Dugger

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Keion White

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Mike Evans

    Questionable

    Ribs · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Romello Height

    LP

    Limited practice

  • J.K. Dobbins

    FP

    Full practice

  • Marvin Mims Jr.

    FP

    Full practice

  • Zach Allen

    FP

    Full practice

  • D.J. Jones

    FP

    Full practice

  • Christian McCaffrey

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jaylen Waddle

    FP

    Full practice

  • Trent Williams

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • DEN (2-1) at SF (3-0)

    +58 PT GAP

    Denver has won two straight, but a 2-1 team at -10 points has been winning close and losing big, so the record flatters them. San Francisco is +48 through three games and 2-0 at home, which is a real margin even in a short sample. Denver has played one road game and lost it, so that split is one game deep. The win streaks look similar on paper, and the point totals show these teams arriving in very different shape.

STREAK

  • SF has won 3 straight

    W3

    San Francisco is 3-0 and hosts Denver. Three games is a short run, and the sheet does not show who those wins came against, so the quality of the start is hard to judge. Unbeaten home favorites tend to attract heavy public backing, which can stretch a line. Weigh whether the number fits the matchup or just the record.

AFTER GARY

  • SF -2.5 → -2.5

    GARY +1.23PP

    Gary's number was -2.5; the same book now shows -2.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    BROCK PURDYPASSING TDS OVER 1.5
    NFLSan Francisco 49ers· -109

    Brock Purdy
    Passing Tds over 1.5

    -109 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

    San Francisco 49ers

    I'm taking Brock Purdy over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -109. He has thrown four, two and three in his three starts this season, nine total with one interception, and he hasn't been sacked once. The price is the main reason I'm interested. This same line sat at -175 two weeks ago and -157 last week. Now it's near even money against a defense that has given up four passing touchdowns in three games.

    The matchup reason is how San Francisco finishes drives. The 49ers have scored touchdowns on nine of ten red zone trips, and Purdy has six touchdown passes on 17 red zone throws this year. Kittle has three of his own inside the 20. Denver's offense has scored 10 first-half points across three games, so this sets up as a game where San Francisco has the ball with a lead and good field position for long stretches. The spread and total point to roughly a 25-point day for the 49ers. Denver is also without Dondrea Tillman, one of its regular blitzers, which takes away one of the pressure looks that bothered Stafford last week.

    The strongest case against this is Denver's red zone defense, which was among the league's toughest last season and has held up again through three games. Christian McCaffrey also takes a lot of the short goal-line work, with five carries inside the 5 already, so a couple of San Francisco scores could easily come on the ground. Mike Evans is questionable with a rib injury and says he'll try to play, and Denver's front has piled up quarterback hits. Purdy did finish under two touchdowns in a few of his 2025 starts, so this isn't automatic. Three games is a small sample, but at this price I'll back the most efficient passing offense in the league to throw for two.

  • GARY'S PICK
    RJ HARVEYRUSHING RECEIVING YARDS OVER 41.5
    NFLDenver Broncos· -111

    RJ Harvey
    Rushing Receiving Yards over 41.5

    -111 · CASHED · ACTUAL 93

    Denver Broncos

    I'm taking RJ Harvey over 41.5 rushing plus receiving yards at -111. He has played two games this season and gone for 41 and 47, so this number sits right on his output. I'm betting that the game script pushes him over.

    Harvey's value right now is as a receiver. He has 10 catches on 11 targets in those two games, including six for 41 yards against the Rams. He has taken 11 of Denver's 58 targets in the games he played. Denver has trailed at halftime in all three games, and it comes into Levi's as an underdog against an offense scoring 32.7 points a game. When Bo Nix is playing from behind against a San Francisco front that is missing Bosa and Thompson and played 87 snaps last week, the quick throw to the back becomes a regular outlet. Last season he averaged 63.2 combined yards across ten games in a bigger role, so he has shown he can clear this when the touches come.

    The case against is real. Harvey is the second running back, with two and three carries in his two games and a snap share between a third and half of the offense. Payton has said this week that J.K. Dobbins could take on a larger role, and fullback Adam Prentice is now on the active roster. San Francisco has also held running backs to under six yards per catch this season, so his catches tend to be short, and Marvin Mims returning gives Nix another short option. This is a thin edge built on two games of usage, so my confidence stays modest. The way this game is likely to unfold still favors his receiving role.

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