Skip to content
GARY A.I.Get the app
NFL · Sun, Sep 20 · 4:25 PM

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

O/U 48.5 · SPREAD San Francisco 49ers -22.5 · Levi's Stadium

GARY'S PICK
49ers -13.5
NFLvs Dolphins· -105

49ers
-13.5

-105 · CASHED · MIA 13 · SF 35

Dolphins

The pick & result

Published pick
San Francisco 49ers -13.5 -105
Published odds
-105
Result
Won
Final score
13-35

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 47 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 14 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 20 4:07 PM
Move
SPREADSan Francisco 49ers -12.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -13 (-108)+½
TOTAL45.5 (-110)45 (-108)−½
MONEYLINESan Francisco 49ers -900San Francisco 49ers -900Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 14 6:00 AMSan Francisco 49ers -12.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 14 11:02 AMSan Francisco 49ers -12.5 (-110)46 (-105)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 14 1:03 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-105)45.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 14 2:03 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-110)45.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 14 2:33 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 14 5:03 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 15 12:18 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 15 6:00 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-118)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 15 8:30 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-112)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +625
Sep 15 9:31 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 15 11:01 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 15 7:01 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-120)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 15 8:01 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 15 11:02 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-112)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 16 8:31 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-120)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 16 12:31 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 16 2:31 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105)45.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700
Sep 16 3:32 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105)45 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700
Sep 16 4:32 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-120)45 (-118)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 16 5:18 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 16 10:38 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700
Sep 16 11:08 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-120)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 17 6:00 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-120)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700
Sep 17 6:30 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-120)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 17 7:30 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-120)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700
Sep 17 9:31 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-118)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 17 10:01 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 17 1:32 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 17 2:02 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700
Sep 17 9:46 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 18 2:03 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)45 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 18 4:04 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)44.5 (-118)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 19 2:08 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)44.5 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 19 4:09 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)45 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
Sep 19 9:56 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)45 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 20 12:44 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)45 (-110)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 20 6:00 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700
Sep 20 8:51 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700
Sep 20 9:00 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 20 9:10 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700
Sep 20 10:13 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 20 11:22 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 20 11:33 AMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700
Sep 20 12:03 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 20 3:16 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-112)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700
Sep 20 3:26 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-112)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675
Sep 20 3:57 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-110)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650
CLOSESep 20 4:07 PMSan Francisco 49ers -13 (-108)45 (-108)San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650

The read

San Francisco returns from Australia for its home opener at Levi’s Stadium. Miami finishes its extended West Coast trip looking to clean up the mistakes that undermined its opener.

I’m backing San Francisco because the advantages connect on both sides of the ball. Brock Purdy went without a sack against the Rams, while Miami generated only two quarterback hits against Las Vegas. With Christian McCaffrey and Kaelon Black complementing a receiving group featuring Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle, San Francisco has multiple ways to sustain possessions. Its 55.8% early-down success rate in the opener supports that assessment, although one game does not establish its season-long level.

Miami faces the more difficult execution problem. Its five sacks allowed came alongside protection, timing and route issues identified by its own coaching staff. San Francisco generated eight quarterback hits against the Rams despite finishing without a sack. I expect that disruption to make sustained Miami possessions difficult again, especially if Achane’s running lanes remain as limited as they were in the opener. Miami’s kickoff-coverage mistakes offer another route to favorable scoring opportunities for the home team.

The strongest objection is Miami’s defense: it allowed only 4.63 yards per play and performed well on early downs. Willis’ mobility and Douglas’ receiving production also give the Dolphins ways to threaten the spread. I’m taking those seriously; San Francisco needs separation, and a late Miami touchdown could undo an otherwise convincing performance.

Still, I trust San Francisco’s available offensive personnel and execution more than I trust Miami to fix several connected problems in the same afternoon. The 49ers have ten days between games following Australia, while Miami’s stay in California removes the argument for a fresh cross-country travel disadvantage. My cover case rests on San Francisco sustaining drives while repeatedly interrupting Miami’s—not simply repeating last week’s scores. At -105, that is the ticket I’m taking.

Injuries noted

Miami Dolphins: Darrell Baker Jr. (PUP-R) — Baker (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Dolphins on Sunday.; Storm Duck (PUP-R) — Duck (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by Miami on Sunday.; Rene Konga (IR) — Undisclosed; Kenneth Grant (IR-R) — ir; Trey Moore (IR-R) — ir; Cole Turner (IR) — Turner (undisclosed) reverted to the Dolphins' injured-reserve list Thursday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; DJ Campbell (Inactive) — inactive; Brady Cook (Inactive) — Cook (coach's decision) will be the emergency quarterback for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Chukwuebuka Godrick (Inactive) — inactive; Justin Joly (Inactive) — Joly (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Reese Taylor (Inactive) — inactive; Jalen Tolbert (Inactive) — Tolbert (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Kyle Louis (IR) — The Dolphins placed Louis (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Ronnie Harrison Jr. (IR) — The Dolphins placed Harrison (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Tucker Addington (Questionable) — questionable; Chop Robinson (Out) — Robinson (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the 49ers, Travis Wingfield of the Dolphins' official site reports.; Seydou Traore (Questionable) — questionable

San Francisco 49ers: Isaac Guerendo (PUP-R) — Guerendo (pectoral) was placed on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.; Brandon Aiyuk (Reserve-DNR) — Knee - ACL + MCL; Christian Kirk (IR-R) — Kirk (calf) was placed on injured reserve by the 49ers on Sunday with a designation to return.; Mykel Williams (PUP-R) — out; Ricky Pearsall (IR) — Knee - PCL; Andrew Farmer II (IR) — Back; Darrick Forrest (IR) — Undisclosed; Mikail Kamara (IR) — Knee; Sam Okuayinonu (IR) — Okuayinonu broke his foot in practice last week and is set to have surgery to repair the issue, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.; Brett Toth (IR) — The 49ers placed Toth (concussion) on injured reserve Sunday.; Nate Hobbs (IR) — ir; Nick Martin (IR) — The 49ers placed Martin (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Austen Pleasants (IR-R) — The 49ers placed Pleasants (knee) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Nick Zakelj (IR) — Zakelj (undisclosed) was placed on the 49ers' injured reserve Sunday.; Alfred Collins (IR) — San Francisco placed Collins (knee) on injured reserve Thursday.; Tatum Bethune (Inactive) — Bethune (coach's decision) is officially inactive for Thursday's game against the Rams, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; Enrique Cruz Jr. (Inactive) — inactive; Jordan James (Inactive) — James (coach's decision) is officially inactive for Thursday's game against the Rams, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; Ephesians Prysock (Inactive) — Prysock (coach's decision) is officially inactive for Thursday's game against the Rams, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; Kurtis Rourke (Inactive) — inactive; Jordan Watkins (Inactive) — Watkins (coach's decision) is officially inactive for Thursday's game against the Rams, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; De'Zhaun Stribling (IR) — The 49ers placed Stribling (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jake Tonges (IR) — Tonges (knee) requires surgery for an MCL tear and is done for the season, Cam Inman reports.; Kyle Juszczyk (Questionable) — questionable; Khalid Kareem (Questionable) — questionable; George Kittle (Questionable) — Kittle (Achilles) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; Eddy Pineiro (Questionable) — Pineiro (illness) is expected to be active Sunday against the Dolphins, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; Keion White (Questionable) — questionable; Kaelon Black (Questionable) — Black (groin) is on track to play Sunday against the Dolphins, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Brock Purdy is the projected starting quarterback for SF

    6.03 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Brock Purdy threw for 205 passing yards, completed 73.5% of his passes and averaged 6.03 yards per attempt. His 3-1 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

  • Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA

    8.15 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Malik Willis threw for 220 passing yards, completed 55.6% of his passes and averaged 8.15 yards per attempt. His 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

TRENCHES

  • SF is +100 rush yards per game

    100 YPG

    MIA is at 74 rushing yards per game over 1 game; SF is at 174 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • SF gets +1.7 more yards a carry

    1.7 Y/C

    MIA is at 4.1 yards per rush attempt over 1 game; SF is at 5.8 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

PASS RUSH

  • SF's offense takes 5 fewer sacks per game

    5 SACKS

    MIA is at 5 sacks taken per game over 1 game; SF is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • SF's pocket leaks 35 fewer yards per game

    35 YDS

    MIA is at 35 sack yards lost per game over 1 game; SF is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • SF is scoring +14 points per game

    14 PPG

    MIA is at 13 points per game over 1 game; SF is at 27 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • SF's defense gives up 20 fewer points per game

    20 PPG

    MIA is at 27 points allowed per game over 1 game; SF is at 7 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • SF holds the ball 8:43 longer per game

    8:43 TOP

    MIA is at 25:07 time of possession per game over 1 game; SF is at 33:50 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • MIA @ SF carries a 48.5 market total

    48.5

    MIA @ SF carries a 48.5 total, 10 points above the 38.5 median across 15 posted games. That places its scoring expectation clearly above the slate middle; a break would require combined scoring to finish well below 48.5.

  • SF runs +14 more plays per game

    14 PLAYS

    MIA is at 50 offensive plays per game over 1 game; SF is at 64 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

TURNOVERS

  • SF commits 1 fewer turnovers per game

    1 TO

    MIA is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; SF is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • SF puts 1 fewer fumbles on the ground per game

    1 FUM

    MIA is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 1 game; SF is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • SF owns a +0.7 yards-per-play gap

    0.7 Y/P

    MIA is at 5.2 yards per play over 1 game; SF is at 5.9 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

RED ZONE

  • SF allows a red-zone scoring rate 41.7 percentage points lower

    41.7 PP

    MIA is at 75% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; SF is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

MISMATCH

  • SF's protection against a MIA front — MIA takes 5 sacks a game to SF's 0

    0 VS 5

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: sacks taken / g — MIA 5, SF 0, over 1 and 1 game samples.

COVERAGE

  • SF allows a third-down conversion rate 16.2 percentage points lower

    16.2 PP

    MIA is at 38.5% third downs allowed over 1 game; SF is at 22.2% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

  • MIA's defense surrenders 0.8 fewer yards a snap

    0.8 Y/P

    MIA is at 4.3 yards per play allowed over 1 game; SF is at 5.1 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

REPLACEMENT

  • Demarcus Robinson (WR) is out for SF

    OUT

    Robinson is out for MIA at SF, reported Sep. 20. As a WR, the absence is on San Francisco’s offense, but the item does not name a replacement or workload change.

  • Jaylen Wright (RB) is questionable for MIA

    QUESTIONABLE

    Wright (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the 49ers. Reported Sep 20.

  • Kurtis Rourke (QB) is inactive for SF

    INACTIVE

    Rourke (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Dolphins but will serve as the emergency third quarterback. Reported Sep 20.

  • Brady Cook (QB) is inactive for MIA

    INACTIVE

    Cook (coach's decision) is inactive as the Dolphins' emergency third quarterback for Sunday's game against the 49ers. Reported Sep 20.

SITUATIONAL

  • MIA (0-1) at SF (1-0)

    +34 PT GAP

    SF enters 1-0 with a +20 point differential and a one-game winning streak, while MIA is 0-1 with a -14 differential and a one-game skid. MIA is 0-1 on the road; SF has not played at home yet.

  • SF has 3 more days of rest

    7d vs 10d

    SF enters with 10 days of rest and a bye behind it. MIA has had 7 days since its last game, creating a 3-day spacing gap in MIA @ SF.

AFTER GARY

  • SF -13.5 → -13.5

    NO MOVE

    FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 17, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

3
  • GARY'S PICK
    CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREYRECEIVING YARDS UNDER 104.5
    NFLSan Francisco 49ers· -113

    Christian McCaffrey
    Receiving Yards under 104.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 43

    San Francisco 49ers

    I’m taking McCaffrey under 104.5 receiving yards at -113. He had 20 receiving yards on eight targets in Week 1, and his final 10 games of 2025 produced an average of 40.8 with a high of 67.

    San Francisco can attack Miami on the ground after rushing for 174 yards against the Rams, so McCaffrey does not need anything close to a career-level receiving day. The strongest contrary evidence is his elite, game-script-resistant role: he had 23 touches and eight targets in the opener, and a negative play can turn into a long gain in his hands.

    Still, this number requires more than double his best receiving output across the cited 11-game sample.

  • GARY'S PICK
    KAELON BLACKRUSHING YARDS OVER 37.5
    NFLSan Francisco 49ers· -112

    Kaelon Black
    Rushing Yards over 37.5

    -112 · LOST · ACTUAL 25

    San Francisco 49ers

    I’m taking Black over 37.5 rushing yards at -112. In his only NFL regular-season game, he received 14 carries and gained 65 yards while splitting the backfield with Christian McCaffrey.

    Miami allowed 130 rushing yards in its opener, and San Francisco is favored by 13.5 points after producing 174 rushing yards against the Rams. That combination supports another meaningful second-back workload, particularly if the 49ers control the second half.

    The strongest contrary evidence is the extremely small sample and Black’s fresh groin concern. He is expected to play, but any limitation or a heavier McCaffrey workload could erase the volume edge quickly.

  • THE LONG SHOT
    DEEBO SAMUEL SR.ANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
    NFLSan Francisco 49ers· +230

    Deebo Samuel Sr.
    Anytime TD over 0.5

    +230 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

    San Francisco 49ers

    I’m taking Samuel over 0.5 touchdowns at +230. He caught six of seven targets for 48 yards and scored in Week 1, while also receiving a designed carry.

    San Francisco continues to move him around the formation, giving him more paths to the end zone than a conventional receiver. Miami’s young defense allowed three passing touchdowns in its opener, and the 49ers’ 13.5-point favorite status creates a strong team-scoring environment.

    The strongest contrary evidence is target competition: Evans, Kittle and McCaffrey can absorb the most valuable touches, and Samuel’s current San Francisco role has only a one-game 2026 sample. At +230, I’m willing to accept that volatility for a player used both through the air and on designed backfield touches.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NFL game this dayThe NFL recordToday's NFL picksEvery sport this day