Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
O/U 48.5 · SPREAD San Francisco 49ers -22.5 · Levi's Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- San Francisco 49ers -13.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 13-35
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 47 moves| Market | Opened Sep 14 6:00 AM | Close Sep 20 4:07 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | San Francisco 49ers -12.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-108) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 45.5 (-110) | 45 (-108) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | San Francisco 49ers -900 | San Francisco 49ers -900 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 14 6:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -12.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 14 11:02 AM | San Francisco 49ers -12.5 (-110) | 46 (-105) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 14 1:03 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-105) | 45.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 14 2:03 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 14 2:33 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 14 5:03 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 15 12:18 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 15 6:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-118) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 15 8:30 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-112) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +625 |
| Sep 15 9:31 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 15 11:01 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 15 7:01 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-120) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 15 8:01 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 15 11:02 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-112) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 16 8:31 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-120) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 16 12:31 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105) | 45.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 16 2:31 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105) | 45.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700 |
| Sep 16 3:32 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105) | 45 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700 |
| Sep 16 4:32 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-120) | 45 (-118) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 16 5:18 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 16 10:38 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-105) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700 |
| Sep 16 11:08 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-120) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 17 6:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-120) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700 |
| Sep 17 6:30 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-120) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 17 7:30 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-120) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700 |
| Sep 17 9:31 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-118) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 17 10:01 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 17 1:32 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 17 2:02 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700 |
| Sep 17 9:46 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 18 2:03 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 45 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 18 4:04 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-118) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 19 2:08 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 19 4:09 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 45 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| Sep 19 9:56 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 45 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 20 12:44 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 45 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 20 6:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700 |
| Sep 20 8:51 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700 |
| Sep 20 9:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 20 9:10 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700 |
| Sep 20 10:13 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 20 11:22 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-110) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 20 11:33 AM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700 |
| Sep 20 12:03 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (-108) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 20 3:16 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-112) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +700 |
| Sep 20 3:26 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-112) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -1000 · Miami Dolphins +675 |
| Sep 20 3:57 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-110) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
| CLOSESep 20 4:07 PM | San Francisco 49ers -13 (-108) | 45 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -900 · Miami Dolphins +650 |
The read
San Francisco returns from Australia for its home opener at Levi’s Stadium. Miami finishes its extended West Coast trip looking to clean up the mistakes that undermined its opener.
I’m backing San Francisco because the advantages connect on both sides of the ball. Brock Purdy went without a sack against the Rams, while Miami generated only two quarterback hits against Las Vegas. With Christian McCaffrey and Kaelon Black complementing a receiving group featuring Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle, San Francisco has multiple ways to sustain possessions. Its 55.8% early-down success rate in the opener supports that assessment, although one game does not establish its season-long level.
Miami faces the more difficult execution problem. Its five sacks allowed came alongside protection, timing and route issues identified by its own coaching staff. San Francisco generated eight quarterback hits against the Rams despite finishing without a sack. I expect that disruption to make sustained Miami possessions difficult again, especially if Achane’s running lanes remain as limited as they were in the opener. Miami’s kickoff-coverage mistakes offer another route to favorable scoring opportunities for the home team.
The strongest objection is Miami’s defense: it allowed only 4.63 yards per play and performed well on early downs. Willis’ mobility and Douglas’ receiving production also give the Dolphins ways to threaten the spread. I’m taking those seriously; San Francisco needs separation, and a late Miami touchdown could undo an otherwise convincing performance.
Still, I trust San Francisco’s available offensive personnel and execution more than I trust Miami to fix several connected problems in the same afternoon. The 49ers have ten days between games following Australia, while Miami’s stay in California removes the argument for a fresh cross-country travel disadvantage. My cover case rests on San Francisco sustaining drives while repeatedly interrupting Miami’s—not simply repeating last week’s scores. At -105, that is the ticket I’m taking.
Injuries noted
Miami Dolphins: Darrell Baker Jr. (PUP-R) — Baker (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Dolphins on Sunday.; Storm Duck (PUP-R) — Duck (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by Miami on Sunday.; Rene Konga (IR) — Undisclosed; Kenneth Grant (IR-R) — ir; Trey Moore (IR-R) — ir; Cole Turner (IR) — Turner (undisclosed) reverted to the Dolphins' injured-reserve list Thursday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; DJ Campbell (Inactive) — inactive; Brady Cook (Inactive) — Cook (coach's decision) will be the emergency quarterback for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Chukwuebuka Godrick (Inactive) — inactive; Justin Joly (Inactive) — Joly (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Reese Taylor (Inactive) — inactive; Jalen Tolbert (Inactive) — Tolbert (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Kyle Louis (IR) — The Dolphins placed Louis (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Ronnie Harrison Jr. (IR) — The Dolphins placed Harrison (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Tucker Addington (Questionable) — questionable; Chop Robinson (Out) — Robinson (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the 49ers, Travis Wingfield of the Dolphins' official site reports.; Seydou Traore (Questionable) — questionable
San Francisco 49ers: Isaac Guerendo (PUP-R) — Guerendo (pectoral) was placed on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.; Brandon Aiyuk (Reserve-DNR) — Knee - ACL + MCL; Christian Kirk (IR-R) — Kirk (calf) was placed on injured reserve by the 49ers on Sunday with a designation to return.; Mykel Williams (PUP-R) — out; Ricky Pearsall (IR) — Knee - PCL; Andrew Farmer II (IR) — Back; Darrick Forrest (IR) — Undisclosed; Mikail Kamara (IR) — Knee; Sam Okuayinonu (IR) — Okuayinonu broke his foot in practice last week and is set to have surgery to repair the issue, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.; Brett Toth (IR) — The 49ers placed Toth (concussion) on injured reserve Sunday.; Nate Hobbs (IR) — ir; Nick Martin (IR) — The 49ers placed Martin (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Austen Pleasants (IR-R) — The 49ers placed Pleasants (knee) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Nick Zakelj (IR) — Zakelj (undisclosed) was placed on the 49ers' injured reserve Sunday.; Alfred Collins (IR) — San Francisco placed Collins (knee) on injured reserve Thursday.; Tatum Bethune (Inactive) — Bethune (coach's decision) is officially inactive for Thursday's game against the Rams, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; Enrique Cruz Jr. (Inactive) — inactive; Jordan James (Inactive) — James (coach's decision) is officially inactive for Thursday's game against the Rams, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; Ephesians Prysock (Inactive) — Prysock (coach's decision) is officially inactive for Thursday's game against the Rams, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; Kurtis Rourke (Inactive) — inactive; Jordan Watkins (Inactive) — Watkins (coach's decision) is officially inactive for Thursday's game against the Rams, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; De'Zhaun Stribling (IR) — The 49ers placed Stribling (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jake Tonges (IR) — Tonges (knee) requires surgery for an MCL tear and is done for the season, Cam Inman reports.; Kyle Juszczyk (Questionable) — questionable; Khalid Kareem (Questionable) — questionable; George Kittle (Questionable) — Kittle (Achilles) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; Eddy Pineiro (Questionable) — Pineiro (illness) is expected to be active Sunday against the Dolphins, Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.; Keion White (Questionable) — questionable; Kaelon Black (Questionable) — Black (groin) is on track to play Sunday against the Dolphins, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Brock Purdy is the projected starting quarterback for SF
6.03 Y/AIn his first 2026 game, Brock Purdy threw for 205 passing yards, completed 73.5% of his passes and averaged 6.03 yards per attempt. His 3-1 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.
Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA
8.15 Y/AIn his first 2026 game, Malik Willis threw for 220 passing yards, completed 55.6% of his passes and averaged 8.15 yards per attempt. His 0-1 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.
TRENCHES
SF is +100 rush yards per game
100 YPGMIA is at 74 rushing yards per game over 1 game; SF is at 174 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.
SF gets +1.7 more yards a carry
1.7 Y/CMIA is at 4.1 yards per rush attempt over 1 game; SF is at 5.8 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.
PASS RUSH
SF's offense takes 5 fewer sacks per game
5 SACKSMIA is at 5 sacks taken per game over 1 game; SF is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.
SF's pocket leaks 35 fewer yards per game
35 YDSMIA is at 35 sack yards lost per game over 1 game; SF is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.
PACE & SCRIPT
SF is scoring +14 points per game
14 PPGMIA is at 13 points per game over 1 game; SF is at 27 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.
SF's defense gives up 20 fewer points per game
20 PPGMIA is at 27 points allowed per game over 1 game; SF is at 7 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.
SF holds the ball 8:43 longer per game
8:43 TOPMIA is at 25:07 time of possession per game over 1 game; SF is at 33:50 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.
MIA @ SF carries a 48.5 market total
48.5MIA @ SF carries a 48.5 total, 10 points above the 38.5 median across 15 posted games. That places its scoring expectation clearly above the slate middle; a break would require combined scoring to finish well below 48.5.
SF runs +14 more plays per game
14 PLAYSMIA is at 50 offensive plays per game over 1 game; SF is at 64 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.
TURNOVERS
SF commits 1 fewer turnovers per game
1 TOMIA is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; SF is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.
SF puts 1 fewer fumbles on the ground per game
1 FUMMIA is at 1 fumbles lost per game over 1 game; SF is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
SF owns a +0.7 yards-per-play gap
0.7 Y/PMIA is at 5.2 yards per play over 1 game; SF is at 5.9 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.
RED ZONE
SF allows a red-zone scoring rate 41.7 percentage points lower
41.7 PPMIA is at 75% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; SF is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.
MISMATCH
SF's protection against a MIA front — MIA takes 5 sacks a game to SF's 0
0 VS 5The widest gap on this matchup's tape: sacks taken / g — MIA 5, SF 0, over 1 and 1 game samples.
COVERAGE
SF allows a third-down conversion rate 16.2 percentage points lower
16.2 PPMIA is at 38.5% third downs allowed over 1 game; SF is at 22.2% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.
MIA's defense surrenders 0.8 fewer yards a snap
0.8 Y/PMIA is at 4.3 yards per play allowed over 1 game; SF is at 5.1 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.
REPLACEMENT
Demarcus Robinson (WR) is out for SF
OUTRobinson is out for MIA at SF, reported Sep. 20. As a WR, the absence is on San Francisco’s offense, but the item does not name a replacement or workload change.
Jaylen Wright (RB) is questionable for MIA
QUESTIONABLEWright (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the 49ers. Reported Sep 20.
Kurtis Rourke (QB) is inactive for SF
INACTIVERourke (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Dolphins but will serve as the emergency third quarterback. Reported Sep 20.
Brady Cook (QB) is inactive for MIA
INACTIVECook (coach's decision) is inactive as the Dolphins' emergency third quarterback for Sunday's game against the 49ers. Reported Sep 20.
SITUATIONAL
MIA (0-1) at SF (1-0)
+34 PT GAPSF enters 1-0 with a +20 point differential and a one-game winning streak, while MIA is 0-1 with a -14 differential and a one-game skid. MIA is 0-1 on the road; SF has not played at home yet.
SF has 3 more days of rest
7d vs 10dSF enters with 10 days of rest and a bye behind it. MIA has had 7 days since its last game, creating a 3-day spacing gap in MIA @ SF.
AFTER GARY
SF -13.5 → -13.5
NO MOVEFANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 17, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKCHRISTIAN MCCAFFREYRECEIVING YARDS UNDER 104.5
I’m taking McCaffrey under 104.5 receiving yards at -113. He had 20 receiving yards on eight targets in Week 1, and his final 10 games of 2025 produced an average of 40.8 with a high of 67.
San Francisco can attack Miami on the ground after rushing for 174 yards against the Rams, so McCaffrey does not need anything close to a career-level receiving day. The strongest contrary evidence is his elite, game-script-resistant role: he had 23 touches and eight targets in the opener, and a negative play can turn into a long gain in his hands.
Still, this number requires more than double his best receiving output across the cited 11-game sample.
- GARY'S PICKKAELON BLACKRUSHING YARDS OVER 37.5
I’m taking Black over 37.5 rushing yards at -112. In his only NFL regular-season game, he received 14 carries and gained 65 yards while splitting the backfield with Christian McCaffrey.
Miami allowed 130 rushing yards in its opener, and San Francisco is favored by 13.5 points after producing 174 rushing yards against the Rams. That combination supports another meaningful second-back workload, particularly if the 49ers control the second half.
The strongest contrary evidence is the extremely small sample and Black’s fresh groin concern. He is expected to play, but any limitation or a heavier McCaffrey workload could erase the volume edge quickly.
- THE LONG SHOTDEEBO SAMUEL SR.ANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
I’m taking Samuel over 0.5 touchdowns at +230. He caught six of seven targets for 48 yards and scored in Week 1, while also receiving a designed carry.
San Francisco continues to move him around the formation, giving him more paths to the end zone than a conventional receiver. Miami’s young defense allowed three passing touchdowns in its opener, and the 49ers’ 13.5-point favorite status creates a strong team-scoring environment.
The strongest contrary evidence is target competition: Evans, Kittle and McCaffrey can absorb the most valuable touches, and Samuel’s current San Francisco role has only a one-game 2026 sample. At +230, I’m willing to accept that volatility for a player used both through the air and on designed backfield touches.
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