San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
O/U 49.5 · SPREAD San Francisco 49ers -2.5 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Atlanta Falcons ML +124
- Published odds
- +124
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 20-29
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 54 moves| Market | Opened Oct 19 6:00 AM | Close Sun 12:51 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | San Francisco 49ers -4.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115) | −2 |
| TOTAL | 51 (-110) | 50 (-110) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | San Francisco 49ers -235 | San Francisco 49ers -145 | +90 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 19 6:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -4.5 (-110) | 51 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -235 · Atlanta Falcons +190 |
| Oct 19 9:31 AM | San Francisco 49ers -4.5 (-110) | 51 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -235 · Atlanta Falcons +195 |
| Oct 19 11:31 AM | San Francisco 49ers -4.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-112) | San Francisco 49ers -235 · Atlanta Falcons +195 |
| Oct 19 4:01 PM | San Francisco 49ers -4.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-112) | San Francisco 49ers -235 · Atlanta Falcons +190 |
| Oct 19 6:36 PM | San Francisco 49ers -4 (-110) | 50.5 (-120) | San Francisco 49ers -225 · Atlanta Falcons +185 |
| Oct 20 12:25 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -200 · Atlanta Falcons +165 |
| Oct 20 6:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-110) | 49.5 (-115) | San Francisco 49ers -200 · Atlanta Falcons +165 |
| Oct 20 7:32 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-110) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -200 · Atlanta Falcons +165 |
| Oct 20 8:38 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-110) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -210 · Atlanta Falcons +170 |
| Oct 20 10:01 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-110) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -200 · Atlanta Falcons +165 |
| Oct 20 10:44 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-105) | 50.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -190 · Atlanta Falcons +160 |
| Oct 20 11:44 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (+100) | 50.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -185 · Atlanta Falcons +150 |
| Oct 20 2:46 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-125) | 50 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -185 · Atlanta Falcons +155 |
| Oct 20 3:47 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (-105) | 49 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -175 · Atlanta Falcons +145 |
| Oct 20 4:47 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-125) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -185 · Atlanta Falcons +150 |
| Oct 20 5:47 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-115) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -175 · Atlanta Falcons +145 |
| Oct 20 8:47 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-115) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -185 · Atlanta Falcons +150 |
| Oct 20 9:47 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-115) | 50 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -185 · Atlanta Falcons +150 |
| Oct 21 6:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (+100) | 50 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -175 · Atlanta Falcons +145 |
| Oct 21 8:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-125) | 50 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -175 · Atlanta Falcons +145 |
| Oct 21 9:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-125) | 50 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -185 · Atlanta Falcons +150 |
| Oct 21 11:32 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (+100) | 50 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -185 · Atlanta Falcons +150 |
| Oct 21 12:32 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-118) | 50 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -175 · Atlanta Falcons +145 |
| Oct 21 1:32 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-115) | 50 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -175 · Atlanta Falcons +145 |
| Oct 21 3:32 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-115) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -175 · Atlanta Falcons +145 |
| Oct 21 4:32 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-102) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -155 · Atlanta Falcons +130 |
| Oct 21 6:19 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-102) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -160 · Atlanta Falcons +130 |
| Oct 21 10:22 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-102) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -155 · Atlanta Falcons +130 |
| Thu 8:30 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-102) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Thu 11:58 AM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (+100) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Thu 12:28 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Thu 1:59 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Thu 2:59 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-105) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Thu 6:03 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-125) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Thu 8:14 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Fri 6:31 AM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Fri 5:59 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120 |
| Fri 11:00 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Sat 9:00 AM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Sat 1:02 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Sat 1:32 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Sat 3:02 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Sat 3:32 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Sat 4:32 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115) | 49.5 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120 |
| Sat 8:34 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115) | 50.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| Sun 4:45 AM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-112) | 50.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120 |
| Sun 7:31 AM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-110) | 50.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120 |
| Sun 8:12 AM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115) | 50.5 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120 |
| Sun 10:40 AM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115) | 50 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120 |
| Sun 10:50 AM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115) | 50 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120 |
| Sun 11:51 AM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-112) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120 |
| Sun 12:00 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120 |
| Sun 12:30 PM | San Francisco 49ers -3 (-105) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120 |
| Sun 12:41 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-118) | 50 (-108) | San Francisco 49ers -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125 |
| CLOSESun 12:51 PM | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-115) | 50 (-110) | San Francisco 49ers -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120 |
The read
The unbeaten 49ers fly cross-country off a Monday-night game to face a Falcons team whose 2-4 record hides how different it looks with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. San Francisco is only a short favorite. I think this game is closer to a coin flip than the records suggest, which makes Atlanta at plus money the side I want.
With Penix, Atlanta is 2-2. That's blowouts at Green Bay and New Orleans, an overtime loss to Baltimore and a 23-31 loss to Chicago that included three lost fumbles. Penix is 71-of-110 for 944 yards, 6 TD and 1 INT. The 0-2 start belongs to Cooper Rush.
San Francisco's passing game shrinks this week. Mike Evans, the team leader with 420 receiving yards, is out. Deebo Samuel misses again, and Christian Kirk plays for the first time this season. That leaves Brock Purdy leaning on George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey.
The 6-0 record also looks bigger than the wins. The last four finished 23-17, 32-29, 24-14 and 36-30, against opponents who are now 1-4-1, 3-3, 4-2, 2-4, 0-5 and 2-4. Seattle handed over four takeaways and a defensive touchdown, and that game still finished 32-29. San Francisco also turns around from Monday to Sunday with a 10 a.m. body-clock kickoff, while the Falcons are home on seven days' rest.
The case against is real. Atlanta won its blowouts running for 242 and 205 yards, and San Francisco hasn't allowed more than 122 on the ground. The Falcons gave up 5 and 3 sacks the last two weeks, while the 49ers have 4 and 5 without Nick Bosa. If Bijan Robinson gets bottled up and Penix has to throw from behind that line, Atlanta stalls. That's why this is a modest play. Any late news on Penix's ribs takes me off it.
At +124, Atlanta doesn't have to be the better team. It only has to win a close game at home often enough, and I think it does.
Injuries noted
San Francisco 49ers: Isaac Guerendo (PUP-R) — Guerendo (pectoral) was placed on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.; Ricky Pearsall (IR) — Pearsall announced Thursday in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery to repair the PCL in his right knee, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports.; Andrew Farmer II (IR) — San Francisco placed Farmer (back) on its injured-reserve list Thursday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Darrick Forrest (IR) — San Francisco placed Forrest (undisclosed) on its injured reserve list Thursday.; Mikail Kamara (IR); Sam Okuayinonu (IR) — Okuayinonu broke his foot in practice last week and is set to have surgery to repair the issue, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.; Nate Hobbs (IR) — ir; Nick Martin (IR) — Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday that Martin's (hamstring) status will be evaluated "in these next couple of days," Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com reports.; Austen Pleasants (IR-R) — The 49ers placed Pleasants (knee) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday.; Nick Zakelj (IR) — Zakelj (undisclosed) was placed on the 49ers' injured reserve Sunday.; Alfred Collins (IR) — San Francisco placed Collins (knee) on injured reserve Thursday.; De'Zhaun Stribling (IR) — The 49ers placed Stribling (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jake Tonges (IR) — Tonges (knee) requires surgery for an MCL tear and is done for the season, Cam Inman reports.; Demarcus Robinson (IR) — Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Thursday that Robinson (ankle) has an "outside chance" to return from injured reserve for the 49ers' Week 7 game versus the Falcons but is more likely to be activated following the team's Week 8 bye, David Lombardi of SFStandard.com reports.; C.J. West (IR) — The 49ers placed West (undisclosed) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Nick Bosa (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Knee); practice: DNP. Bosa (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Falcons.; Marques Sigle (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Ankle); practice: DNP. Sigle (ankle) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Falcons.; Deebo Samuel Sr. (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Hamstring); practice: DNP. Samuel (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game at Atlanta, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.; Garret Wallow (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Hamstring); practice: DNP. Wallow (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Atlanta.; Mike Evans (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Ribs); practice: DNP. Evans (Achilles) is out for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Matt Barrows of The Athletic reports.; Luke Gifford (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Groin); practice: DNP. Gifford (groin) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons.; Upton Stout (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Shoulder); practice: Limited. Stout (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons.; Siran Neal (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited. questionable; Christian Kirk (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Calf); practice: Full.
Atlanta Falcons: Storm Norton (PUP-R) — out; DeAngelo Malone (PUP-R) — The Falcons placed Malone (undisclosed) on the reserve/PUP list Tuesday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; James Pearce Jr. (Reserve-Sus) — reserve-sus; JD Bertrand (IR) — The Falcons placed Bertrand (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Beaux Collins (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Hip); practice: Full. Collins (hip) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the 49ers, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.; Trey Sermon (IR) — ir; Cameron Williams (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Ankle); practice: Limited. The Falcons designated Williams (ankle) for return to practice from injured reserve Thursday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Da'Shawn Hand (IR) — The Falcons placed Hand (quadriceps) on injured reserve Wednesday, William McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Yasir Abdullah (IR) — The Falcons placed Abdullah (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.; C.J. Henderson (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Groin); practice: Full. Henderson (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the 49ers, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.; Divine Deablo (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Forearm); practice: DNP. Deablo (forearm) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the 49ers, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.; Billy Bowman Jr. (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Hamstring); practice: DNP. Bowman (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the 49ers, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.; Michael Jerrell (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Biceps); practice: DNP. The Falcons placed Jerrell (biceps) on injured reserve Saturday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.; Brian Robinson Jr. (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Hamstring); practice: DNP. Robinson (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the 49ers, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.; Olamide Zaccheaus (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Shoulder); practice: Limited. Zaccheaus (shoulder) is questionable for Sunday's game against the 49ers, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.; Samson Ebukam (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Hamstring); practice: Limited. questionable; Za'Darius Smith (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Neck); practice: Full. Smith (neck) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the 49ers, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.; Avieon Terrell (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Back); practice: Limited. Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Groin); practice: Full. Terrell (back) is now recovering from an illness ahead of Sunday's game against the 49ers, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.; Kendal Daniels (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Neck); practice: Full. Daniels (neck) is questionable for Sunday's game against the 49ers, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.; Gervon Dexter Sr. (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Hamstring); practice: Limited. questionable
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Michael Penix Jr. is the projected starting quarterback for ATL
8.58 Y/AThrough 4 games in 2026, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 944 passing yards, completed 64.5% of his passes and averaged 8.58 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 1982 yards, completed 60.1% and averaged 7.18 yards per attempt, 9-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
Brock Purdy is the projected starting quarterback for SF
8.54 Y/AThrough 6 games in 2026, Brock Purdy threw for 1460 passing yards, completed 69.6% of his passes and averaged 8.54 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 2167 yards, completed 69.4% and averaged 7.63 yards per attempt, 20-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 14-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.
TRENCHES
ATL: 149.5 rushing yards per game to SF's 128.2
21.3 YPGSF is at 128.2 rushing yards per game over 6 games; ATL is at 149.5 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season SF was at 106.9 over 17 games and ATL at 125.8 over 17 games.
PASS RUSH
SF: 0.83 sacks taken per game to ATL's 2.67
1.83 SACKSSan Francisco's quarterback is going down under once a game over 6 games, down from 1.8 last season. Atlanta is taking 2.67, up from 1.86. Both moved in opposite directions from nearly the same starting point, so expect each to drift back somewhat. For now, Atlanta is more likely to see drives die on sacks, which hurts the Falcons more at home than San Francisco.
SF: 4.8 sack yards lost per game to ATL's 16.2
11.3 YDSSF is at 4.8 sack yards lost per game over 6 games; ATL is at 16.2 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season SF was at 10.7 over 17 games and ATL at 12.9 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
SF @ ATL carries a 50.5 market total
50.5At 7 points over the 43.5 median across 13 games, the market sees this as one of the higher-scoring spots on the board. That points to both offenses moving the ball with some regularity. The expectation cracks if one side controls the clock and shortens the game. A slow, grinding first half is the scenario that works against this number.
SF: 18.3 points allowed per game to ATL's 25.5
7.2 PPGSF is at 18.3 points allowed per game over 6 games; ATL is at 25.5 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season SF was at 21.8 over 17 games and ATL at 23.6 over 17 games.
SF: 29.5 points per game to ATL's 23.7
5.8 PPGSF is at 29.5 points per game over 6 games; ATL is at 23.7 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season SF was at 25.7 over 17 games and ATL at 20.8 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
SF: 1 turnover committed per game to ATL's 2
1 TOAtlanta is coughing it up twice a game over six games, up from 1.06 last season. San Francisco is at one a game, a bit better than last season's 1.29. Atlanta's jump looks inflated and should come down, since last season it protected the ball well. San Francisco has the steadier profile on the road, but a turnover-driven edge is the least reliable kind to bet on.
SF: 0.33 interceptions thrown per game to ATL's 1.17
0.83 INTSF is at 0.33 interceptions thrown per game over 6 games; ATL is at 1.17 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season SF was at 0.94 over 17 games and ATL at 0.47 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
SF: 6.48 yards per play to ATL's 5.72
0.77 Y/PSan Francisco gains 6.48 yards a snap over 6 games, nearly a full yard above last season's 5.49, and Atlanta is up too, from 5.38 to 5.72. Both lean on big passes: Brock Purdy hit Mike Evans for 54 and George Kittle for 35 last game, and Michael Penix Jr. found Jahan Dotson and Drake London for 41 and 39. Jumps this large often cool, but both offenses are pushing the ball downfield, which supports a game where each side can score quickly.
RED ZONE
SF: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to ATL's 64%
14 PPSF is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 6 games; ATL is at 64% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
MISMATCH
SF: 0.83 sacks taken a game to ATL's 2.67
0.83 VS 2.67San Francisco has taken 0.83 sacks a game over six games, down from 1.8 last season, while Atlanta is taking 2.67, up from 1.86. The Falcons' line is giving up more pressure, and they need quicker throws to hide it. Both numbers moved a lot from last season, so expect some drift back. Drives stalled by sacks hand San Francisco extra possessions.
COVERAGE
SF: 209.8 passing yards allowed per game to ATL's 252
42.2 YPGSF is at 209.8 passing yards allowed per game over 6 games; ATL is at 252 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
SF lead the series with ATL since 2025
1-0 SERIESSan Francisco beat Atlanta 20-10 at home on Oct 19 last season, the only meeting in this span. That was a comfortable, low-scoring win, but one game at a different site says little about this trip to Atlanta.
REPLACEMENT
Beaux Collins (WR) is ir-r for ATL
IR-RCollins has been ruled out for Sunday against the 49ers with a hip injury while still in his return window from injured reserve. He stays sidelined for at least another week, so the Falcons' receiver group looks the same as it has. There's no new piece to account for in this matchup.
Cameron Williams (OL) is ir-r for ATL
IR-RWilliams has been on injured reserve with an ankle injury, and the Falcons opened his practice window Thursday, reported Oct 23. Being designated to return lets him practice, but he still has to be activated before he can play, so he is unlikely to factor in against San Francisco. Think of it as a sign that help on the line is coming later, with no effect on this game.
Michael Jerrell (OT) is on injured reserve for ATL
IRJerrell went on injured reserve Saturday with a biceps injury, reported Oct 24, so he will not play against San Francisco. The sheet does not say whether he was a starter or who replaces him at tackle. Check who Atlanta lines up at tackle before you count on its pass protection in this one.
Demarcus Robinson (WR) is on injured reserve for SF
IRRobinson is on injured reserve with an ankle injury, and Kyle Shanahan put his chances of playing against the Falcons as an "outside chance." The more likely plan is activation after the Week 8 bye. Assume the 49ers' receiver group looks the same this week.
Nick Martin (LB) is on injured reserve for SF
IRMartin is on injured reserve with a hamstring, and Kyle Shanahan said Monday the team will evaluate him in the next couple of days. IR means he is out until the team activates him, so the evaluation is about a return timeline, not this game's availability by default. Until San Francisco makes a roster move, price the defense as if he is not on the field.
PRACTICE REPORT
Luke Gifford
OutGroin · Did not practice · Out
Nick Bosa
OutKnee, Calf · Did not practice · Out
Deebo Samuel Sr.
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Divine Deablo
OutForearm · Did not practice · Out
Billy Bowman Jr.
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Brian Robinson Jr.
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Mike Evans
OutRibs, Achilles · Did not practice · Out
Garret Wallow
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Marques Sigle
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Avieon Terrell
QuestionableBack · Limited practice · Questionable
Olamide Zaccheaus
QuestionableShoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
C.J. Henderson
QuestionableGroin · Full practice · Questionable
Christian Kirk
QuestionableCalf · Full practice · Questionable
A.J. Terrell Jr.
QuestionableGroin · Full practice · Questionable
Gervon Dexter Sr.
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Samson Ebukam
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Siran Neal
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
Za'Darius Smith
QuestionableNeck · Full practice · Questionable
Upton Stout
QuestionableShoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
Kendal Daniels
QuestionableNeck · Full practice · Questionable
Jake Matthews
LPLimited practice
Romello Height
FPFull practice
Jawaan Taylor
FPFull practice
Trent Williams
FPFull practice
Cameron Thomas
FPFull practice
Ashtyn Davis
FPFull practice
Mykel Williams
FPFull practice
Jaden Dugger
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
SF: 75% fourth-down conversion rate to ATL's 16.7%
58.3 PPSF is at 75% fourth-down conversion rate over 6 games; ATL is at 16.7% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season SF was at 59.1% over 17 games and ATL at 50% over 17 games.
SF: 51.5% third-down conversion rate to ATL's 38.9%
12.6 PPSF is at 51.5% third-down conversion rate over 6 games; ATL is at 38.9% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season SF was at 49.8% over 17 games and ATL at 33.3% over 17 games.
SF: 8.47 yards per pass attempt to ATL's 6.75
1.72 Y/ASF is at 8.47 yards per pass attempt over 6 games; ATL is at 6.75 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season SF was at 6.9 over 17 games and ATL at 6.21 over 17 games.
SF: 238.5 team passing yards per game to ATL's 194.8
43.7 YPGSF is at 238.5 team passing yards per game over 6 games; ATL is at 194.8 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season SF was at 244.5 over 17 games and ATL at 207.2 over 17 games.
SF (6-0) at ATL (2-4)
-78 PT GAPSan Francisco is unbeaten and has outscored teams by 67, so the six wins are mostly real margin, and they are 2-0 away from home. Atlanta has dropped two straight and has yet to win at home in three tries, though a -11 point differential says the 2-4 record is closer than it looks. The home edge that usually helps an underdog has not shown up for Atlanta, which makes this a spot to judge on form and margin rather than venue.
STREAK
SF has won 6 straight
W6SF hasn't lost yet: 6-0, and every win is part of the streak. The sheet doesn't say who those six came against, so the record alone can't tell you how much of it was earned against real teams. Six games is a solid start and a 6-0 team is usually a real one, but streaks end and road games at ATL are where they often do. Expect the market to price SF as the clear better team, so the question for a bettor is whether that price already asks too much.
AFTER GARY
ATL +124 → +126
NOW +0.4PPGary's number was 124; the same book now shows 126.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKKYLE PITTS SR.RECEPTIONS OVER 3.5
San Francisco's defense lets tight ends catch the ball and then tackles them. Tight ends have 32 catches on 45 targets against the 49ers through six games, but only 251 yards and no touchdowns. That's a bad matchup for a tight end's yardage prop and a good one for his catch count, and I'm betting the catch count at plus money.
Pitts has grown into a real piece of this offense. His targets have climbed from 2 to 3 to 6 to 7 over Penix's four starts, and he caught 5 balls in each of the last two games, with three touchdowns in that stretch. Austin Hooper's role keeps shrinking. Penix also took 5 sacks against Chicago and 3 against Baltimore, and San Francisco has 9 sacks over its last two games even without Nick Bosa. A young quarterback under that kind of heat looks for his tight end over the middle, and the 49ers have been willing to give up that throw all year. Olamide Zaccheaus is questionable with a shoulder after limited practices, so the short middle could get even more traffic through Pitts.
What beats it is a game Atlanta controls early. With Brian Robinson out, Bijan Robinson carries the whole backfield, and a Falcons lead turns this into a run-heavy afternoon with fewer throws. Drake London has drawn 10 and 11 targets the last two weeks and can soak up the volume. Pitts also still sits for about a quarter of the snaps, so a quiet script leaves him at two or three catches. At +107 I'll take that risk.
- GARY'S PICKCHRISTIAN MCCAFFREYRECEIVING YARDS UNDER 47.5
This number moved up because Mike Evans is out, and I think it moved too far. McCaffrey averages 31.7 receiving yards a game this season and his best day was 53. He catches the ball close to the line: 28 catches for 190 yards, under 7 yards a catch. Atlanta defends backs the same way, allowing 32 catches for only 193 yards to running backs all season.
The Washington game is the best preview of this week. Evans played less than half the snaps, Deebo Samuel was out, and Purdy leaned on McCaffrey for 10 targets. He caught 9 of them and still finished with only 53 yards. To clear 47.5, he needs that kind of volume again plus that same efficiency. George Kittle is the first read with Evans gone, Christian Kirk makes his season debut, and Kaelon Black takes his share of backfield snaps. San Francisco is also playing a 10 a.m. body-clock game, and I expect this offense to be grinding for short gains.
What beats it is one screen that breaks. Atlanta is down Divine Deablo at linebacker and Kendal Daniels is questionable, so the underneath coverage is thinner than usual. If San Francisco falls behind, which my side on this game expects, Purdy could dump it to McCaffrey a dozen times. That risk is why this is a modest play, but even the heavy-volume version of his day has landed right around this line.
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