New Orleans Saints picks

The NFL's first regular-season game in France kicks off at Stade de France with wind forecast at 15 mph and gusts into the 30s. Pittsburgh is laying 3 on a neutral field, and the weather favors the team that can run the ball and defend. The gap between these teams is defense. Both offenses gain about the same yardage, 320 a game for Pittsburgh and 322 for New Orleans. But the Steelers allow 308 a game and the Saints allow 378. That includes 205 rushing yards to Atlanta, 165 to Detroit and 153 to Minnesota. Jaylen Warren is averaging 5.5 yards a carry, and the wind makes that run game worth even more. The Saints' backs are at 3.1 and 3.4, so New Orleans gets pushed into throwing into the gusts. The Saints' offense also looks better on paper than it is. They've scored touchdowns on 16 of 19 red-zone trips, and that rate won't hold. Tyler Shough has gone 32-of-55 for 240 yards over the last two games. Last week's win over the Giants came despite being outgained 461-319; four takeaways handed them four drives starting in Giants territory. Their offensive line is patched together, with Kelvin Banks Jr. on IR and Cesar Ruiz questionable, against a Steelers front with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith healthy. New Orleans does have a real path. Pittsburgh has allowed 19 sacks, and the Saints hit the quarterback 8 times last week. The Steelers' receiver room is thin, with Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson on IR and Ben Skowronek out. Pittsburgh also leans on field goals, 13 made so far, and gusts this strong make long kicks shaky. That's how this ends up a 1- or 2-point Steelers win. The turnover margins (Pittsburgh +3, New Orleans -3), the "home team" label, the travel and the off-field stories don't move me. The Steelers have the better defense and the better run game, and the weather rewards both. I'll lay the 3, with modest confidence.