Skip to content
GARY A.I.Get the app
NFL · Sun, Sep 27 · 4:25 PM

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

O/U 62.5 · SPREAD Las Vegas Raiders -7.5 · Caesars Superdome

GARY'S PICK
Raiders +3
NFL@ Saints· -102

Raiders
+3

-102 · CASHED · LV 35 · NO 27

Saints

The pick & result

Published pick
Las Vegas Raiders +3 -102
Published odds
-102
Result
Won
Final score
35-27

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 44 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 21 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 27 4:16 PM
Move
SPREADNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-108)+½
TOTAL43.5 (-108)44 (-110)+½
MONEYLINENew Orleans Saints -175New Orleans Saints -200−25
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 21 6:00 AMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)43.5 (-108)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 21 11:01 AMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 21 5:15 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (+100)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 22 6:30 AMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)43.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 22 9:31 AMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 22 10:32 AMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 22 1:47 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sep 22 3:56 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 22 5:57 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sep 22 7:58 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-115)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 22 8:58 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-105)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 22 11:58 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 23 12:58 AMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-108)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 23 6:00 AMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 23 7:00 AMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-108)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sep 23 1:05 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-125)44 (-108)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 23 2:05 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sep 23 3:05 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-115)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 23 4:06 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (+100)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 23 6:06 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-125)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sep 23 7:07 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105)43.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sep 23 8:07 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-125)43.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sep 24 9:31 AMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-115)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 24 5:25 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 24 5:46 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (+100)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 25 12:48 AMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 25 6:00 AMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 25 4:03 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (+100)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 25 6:05 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 25 8:05 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (+100)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 25 9:05 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 26 6:34 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)43.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 26 8:04 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 26 10:43 PMNew Orleans Saints -3 (-118)43.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145
Sep 27 12:14 AMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sep 27 12:44 AMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-102)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150
Sep 27 11:53 AMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-102)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Sep 27 12:24 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-102)43.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Sep 27 12:54 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-102)43.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Sep 27 1:04 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-102)44 (-105)New Orleans Saints -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Sep 27 3:16 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +155
Sep 27 3:36 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Sep 27 3:46 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105)43.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +160
Sep 27 4:06 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105)44 (-105)New Orleans Saints -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165
CLOSESep 27 4:16 PMNew Orleans Saints -3.5 (-108)44 (-110)New Orleans Saints -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +170

The read

Las Vegas’ pass rush is the matchup I trust most. The Raiders have eight sacks in two games, while Tyler Shough has already taken eight, and New Orleans now has Asim Richards replacing Kelvin Banks Jr.

at left tackle. The best case against this pick is Shough’s explosive passing game, especially in the Saints’ home opener.

But at +3 and -102, I’ll back the Raiders’ pressure to keep this close; a three-point Saints win pushes.

Injuries noted

Las Vegas Raiders: Chris Collier (IR) — Collier (undisclosed) reverted to injured reserve with the Raiders on Sunday, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.; Justin Shorter (IR) — Undisclosed; Corey Rucker (IR) — Undisclosed; Justin Pickett (IR) — ir; Chigozie Anusiem (IR) — The Raiders placed Anusiem (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Keyron Crawford (IR) — The Raiders placed Crawford (ankle) on injured reserve Sunday, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.; Brennan Jackson (IR) — ir; Carter Runyon (IR-R) — Runyon (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Raiders on Sunday with a designation to return.; Dont'e Thornton Jr. (IR) — ir; Brock Bowers (Questionable) — Bowers (knee), who is listed as questionable for Week 3, is expected to make his season debut Sunday at New Orleans, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.; Aidan O'Connell (Out) — O'Connell (personal) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.; Darien Porter (Questionable) — Porter (foot) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Wednesday, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.; Treydan Stukes (Out) — Stukes (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Saints, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.; Nakobe Dean (Questionable) — Dean (shoulder) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Wednesday, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.; Folorunso Fatukasi (Questionable) — questionable; Kwity Paye (Questionable) — questionable

New Orleans Saints: Mason Tipton (PUP-R) — Tipton (leg) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Saints on Sunday.; Nick Saldiveri (PUP-R) — Knee; Bryan Bresee (IR) — Knee - ACL; Dillon Radunz (IR) — ir; Jordyn Tyson (IR-R) — Tyson (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by New Orleans on Sunday.; Ty Chandler (IR) — The Saints placed Chandler (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Jaylan Ford (IR-R) — Ford (undisclosed) was placed on New Orleans' injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; David Long Jr. (IR) — The Saints placed Long (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; Moliki Matavao (IR) — The Saints placed Matavao (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Lorenzo Styles Jr. (IR) — ir; Rejzohn Wright (IR) — Wright (hip) was put on injured reserve by the Saints on Monday.; Audric Estime (IR) — The Saints placed Estime (thigh) on injured reserve Saturday, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports.; Isaiah Stalbird (Questionable) — questionable; Zach Wood (IR) — The Saints placed Wood (calf) on injured reserve Friday.; Chase Young (Questionable) — Young (calf) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.; Christen Miller (Out) — Miller (toe) is listed as out for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Kendre Miller (Questionable) — Miller was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Martin Emerson Jr. (Questionable) — Emerson (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game versus the Raiders.; Kelvin Banks Jr. (IR) — Banks (ankle) underwent surgery this week, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.; Travis Etienne Jr. (Questionable) — Etienne (hamstring) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Barion Brown (Out) — Brown (hamstring) is listed as out for Sunday's game versus Las Vegas.; Jonas Sanker (Questionable) — Sanker (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.; Nathan Shepherd (Questionable) — questionable

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Kirk Cousins is the projected starting quarterback for LV

    7 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Kirk Cousins threw for 413 passing yards, completed 67.8% of his passes and averaged 7 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1721 yards, completed 61.7% and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

  • Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO

    7.36 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Tyler Shough threw for 662 passing yards, completed 68.9% of his passes and averaged 7.36 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 2384 yards, completed 67.6% and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

TRENCHES

  • LV: 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game to NO's 136.5

    36 YPG

    LV is at 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; NO is at 136.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

PASS RUSH

  • LV: 4 sacks recorded per game to NO's 2

    2 SACKS

    Las Vegas has recorded 4 sacks per game, while New Orleans has recorded 2. Both defenses have only 2 games behind those rates, so the gap can shift on a few successful rushes. Las Vegas brings the stronger early sack profile, while pressure markets need caution when the sample is this short.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • LV: 13.5 points allowed per game to NO's 24

    10.5 PPG

    LV is at 13.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; NO is at 24 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LV was at 25.4 over 17 games and NO at 22.5 over 17 games.

  • NO: 75 offensive plays per game to LV's 63.5

    11.5 PLAYS

    LV is at 63.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; NO is at 75 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LV was at 55.8 over 17 games and NO at 63.2 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • LV: 2.5 takeaways per game to NO's 1

    1.5 TO

    Las Vegas has produced 2.5 takeaways per game, compared with 1 for New Orleans. Those totals span 2 games, and turnovers can turn on a small number of plays. Las Vegas has created more disruption so far, but turnover production is a volatile input when sizing any matchup angle.

  • NO: 1 interception thrown per game to LV's 1.5

    0.5 INT

    LV is at 1.5 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; NO is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LV was at 1.12 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • NO: 5.1 yards per play to LV's 4.7

    0.4 Y/P

    New Orleans has the stronger early offense per play and is almost exactly at its 17-game level from last season. Las Vegas has improved from its own prior-season mark, but remains behind New Orleans through two games. The sample is small, so the useful matchup angle is whether New Orleans can keep its usual efficiency while Las Vegas tries to sustain its early improvement.

RED ZONE

  • LV: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to NO's 71.4%

    11.4 PP

    LV is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; NO is at 71.4% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

MISMATCH

  • LV: 1 sacks taken a game to NO's 4

    1 VS 4

    Las Vegas has taken 1 sack a game through 2 games, while New Orleans has taken 4. Las Vegas was at 4 sacks a game last season, so its protection has improved sharply early, while New Orleans is above its 3.06 rate. The Raiders can keep their offense on schedule if they protect the quarterback; New Orleans needs to reduce negative plays to avoid stalled drives.

COVERAGE

  • LV: 29.2% third downs allowed to NO's 40.9%

    11.7 PP

    Las Vegas has forced more third-down stops than New Orleans through 2 games. The Raiders' early edge matters for drive length, though 2 games is too little evidence to treat either rate as fixed.

REPLACEMENT

  • Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT) is on injured reserve for NO

    IR

    Banks is on injured reserve after ankle surgery this week. He is unavailable against Las Vegas, removing a Saints offensive tackle from the line for this game.

  • Zach Wood (LS) is on injured reserve for NO

    IR

    Wood is out for New Orleans after a calf injury led to an injured-reserve placement Friday. A long snapper works on punts, field goals and extra points, so the Saints need a replacement in that specialist role against Las Vegas.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Treydan Stukes

    Out

    Concussion · Did not practice · Out

  • Barion Brown

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Christen Miller

    Out

    Toe · Did not practice · Out

  • Martin Emerson Jr.

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Aidan O'Connell

    Questionable

    Not injury related - personal matter · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Brock Bowers

    Questionable

    Knee · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Kwity Paye

    Questionable

    Illness · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Chris Olave

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Nathan Shepherd

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Nakobe Dean

    FP

    Full practice

  • JJ Pegues

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

  • Juwan Johnson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Ashton Jeanty

    FP

    Full practice

  • Folorunso Fatukasi

    FP

    Full practice

  • Alvin Kamara

    FP

    Full practice

  • Darien Porter

    FP

    Full practice

  • Oscar Delp

    FP

    Full practice

  • Kendre Miller

    FP

    Full practice

  • Travis Etienne Jr.

    FP

    Hamstring · Full practice

  • Dareke Young

    FP

    Full practice

  • Chase Young

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cameron Jordan

    FP

    Full practice

  • Davon Godchaux

    FP

    Full practice

  • Isaiah Stalbird

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jonas Sanker

    FP

    Full practice

  • Segun Olubi

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • LV (2-0) at NO (1-1)

    -20 PT GAP

    Las Vegas is 2-0 and +26, while New Orleans is 1-1 and +6. The Raiders won their only road game, and the Saints have no home result listed, so Las Vegas brings the stronger overall start without much evidence about New Orleans in this building. The Raiders' two-game streak is useful context, though it remains an early-season sample.

AFTER GARY

  • LV +3 → +3.5

    NOW +0.5

    Gary's number was 3; the same book now shows 3.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    TRAVIS ETIENNE JR.RECEPTIONS OVER 1.5
    NFLNew Orleans Saints· -132

    Travis Etienne Jr.
    Receptions over 1.5

    -132 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

    New Orleans Saints

    New Orleans is a pass-first offense right now: 331 passing yards a game against 78 on the ground, and Tyler Shough has done his best work swinging the ball to the outlet when the rush gets home. Etienne has drawn 5.5 targets a game in 2026, a stable figure across both starts, and he has caught 2 passes in one game and 7 in the other. Las Vegas has allowed 7 catches to running backs across two games, 3.5 a game, and the Raiders' pressure package should force exactly the quick throws that make the back the answer. The line sits at 1.5, so one catch in the flow of the offense plus one checkdown on a late third down clears it.

    The strongest case against is his own health. Etienne is on the injury report with a hamstring and was only a limited participant in practice, so his snaps and routes could shrink, and Alvin Kamara carries an elite touch share of his own out of the same backfield. Two games is a thin read on his 2026 role, and his 2025 season produced only 2.2 catches a game.

  • GARY'S PICK
    KIRK COUSINSRUSHING YARDS OVER 1.5
    NFLLas Vegas Raiders· -113

    Kirk Cousins
    Rushing Yards over 1.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3

    Las Vegas Raiders

    New Orleans has given up 36 rushing yards to quarterbacks over two games, 18 a game, and their front is built to make a veteran move off his spot rather than sit on a sack. Cousins has carried the ball four times and five times in his two starts, and he has been sacked only twice, which tells me he is getting the ball out and still using his legs enough to pick up yards when the pocket closes. The number I need is two rushing yards. One keeper off play action or one scramble on a third down clears it, and the Saints' rush should create that kind of escape lane.

    The strongest case against: Cousins is a 15th-year pocket passer whose 2026 rushing line reads 1 yard and minus 6 yards, and six games in 2025 produced 7 rushing yards total. Kneel-downs count against him, and if the New Orleans pressure lands the way it did against Baltimore, he takes the sack instead of running for a gain.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NFL game this dayThe NFL recordToday's NFL picksEvery sport this day