Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
O/U 62.5 · SPREAD Las Vegas Raiders -7.5 · Caesars Superdome
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Las Vegas Raiders +3 -102
- Published odds
- -102
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 35-27
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 44 moves| Market | Opened Sep 21 6:00 AM | Close Sep 27 4:16 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-108) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 43.5 (-108) | 44 (-110) | +½ |
| MONEYLINE | New Orleans Saints -175 | New Orleans Saints -200 | −25 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 21 6:00 AM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-108) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 21 11:01 AM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 21 5:15 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 22 6:30 AM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-112) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 22 9:31 AM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 22 10:32 AM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 22 1:47 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150 |
| Sep 22 3:56 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 22 5:57 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150 |
| Sep 22 7:58 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-115) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 22 8:58 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-105) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 22 11:58 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 23 12:58 AM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-108) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 23 6:00 AM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 23 7:00 AM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-108) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150 |
| Sep 23 1:05 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-125) | 44 (-108) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 23 2:05 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150 |
| Sep 23 3:05 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 23 4:06 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 23 6:06 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-125) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150 |
| Sep 23 7:07 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-112) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150 |
| Sep 23 8:07 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-125) | 43.5 (-112) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150 |
| Sep 24 9:31 AM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 24 5:25 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 24 5:46 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 25 12:48 AM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 25 6:00 AM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 25 4:03 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 25 6:05 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 25 8:05 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 25 9:05 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 26 6:34 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-112) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 26 8:04 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 26 10:43 PM | New Orleans Saints -3 (-118) | 43.5 (-112) | New Orleans Saints -175 · Las Vegas Raiders +145 |
| Sep 27 12:14 AM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150 |
| Sep 27 12:44 AM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-102) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +150 |
| Sep 27 11:53 AM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-102) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +155 |
| Sep 27 12:24 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-102) | 43.5 (-112) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +155 |
| Sep 27 12:54 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-102) | 43.5 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +155 |
| Sep 27 1:04 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-102) | 44 (-105) | New Orleans Saints -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +155 |
| Sep 27 3:16 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -185 · Las Vegas Raiders +155 |
| Sep 27 3:36 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +160 |
| Sep 27 3:46 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-112) | New Orleans Saints -190 · Las Vegas Raiders +160 |
| Sep 27 4:06 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-105) | 44 (-105) | New Orleans Saints -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +165 |
| CLOSESep 27 4:16 PM | New Orleans Saints -3.5 (-108) | 44 (-110) | New Orleans Saints -200 · Las Vegas Raiders +170 |
The read
Las Vegas’ pass rush is the matchup I trust most. The Raiders have eight sacks in two games, while Tyler Shough has already taken eight, and New Orleans now has Asim Richards replacing Kelvin Banks Jr.
at left tackle. The best case against this pick is Shough’s explosive passing game, especially in the Saints’ home opener.
But at +3 and -102, I’ll back the Raiders’ pressure to keep this close; a three-point Saints win pushes.
Injuries noted
Las Vegas Raiders: Chris Collier (IR) — Collier (undisclosed) reverted to injured reserve with the Raiders on Sunday, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.; Justin Shorter (IR) — Undisclosed; Corey Rucker (IR) — Undisclosed; Justin Pickett (IR) — ir; Chigozie Anusiem (IR) — The Raiders placed Anusiem (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Keyron Crawford (IR) — The Raiders placed Crawford (ankle) on injured reserve Sunday, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.; Brennan Jackson (IR) — ir; Carter Runyon (IR-R) — Runyon (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Raiders on Sunday with a designation to return.; Dont'e Thornton Jr. (IR) — ir; Brock Bowers (Questionable) — Bowers (knee), who is listed as questionable for Week 3, is expected to make his season debut Sunday at New Orleans, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.; Aidan O'Connell (Out) — O'Connell (personal) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.; Darien Porter (Questionable) — Porter (foot) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Wednesday, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.; Treydan Stukes (Out) — Stukes (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Saints, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.; Nakobe Dean (Questionable) — Dean (shoulder) was a limited participant at the Raiders' practice Wednesday, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.; Folorunso Fatukasi (Questionable) — questionable; Kwity Paye (Questionable) — questionable
New Orleans Saints: Mason Tipton (PUP-R) — Tipton (leg) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Saints on Sunday.; Nick Saldiveri (PUP-R) — Knee; Bryan Bresee (IR) — Knee - ACL; Dillon Radunz (IR) — ir; Jordyn Tyson (IR-R) — Tyson (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by New Orleans on Sunday.; Ty Chandler (IR) — The Saints placed Chandler (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Jaylan Ford (IR-R) — Ford (undisclosed) was placed on New Orleans' injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; David Long Jr. (IR) — The Saints placed Long (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; Moliki Matavao (IR) — The Saints placed Matavao (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Lorenzo Styles Jr. (IR) — ir; Rejzohn Wright (IR) — Wright (hip) was put on injured reserve by the Saints on Monday.; Audric Estime (IR) — The Saints placed Estime (thigh) on injured reserve Saturday, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports.; Isaiah Stalbird (Questionable) — questionable; Zach Wood (IR) — The Saints placed Wood (calf) on injured reserve Friday.; Chase Young (Questionable) — Young (calf) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.; Christen Miller (Out) — Miller (toe) is listed as out for Sunday's game against the Raiders.; Kendre Miller (Questionable) — Miller was a non-participant in Thursday's practice due to an illness, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Martin Emerson Jr. (Questionable) — Emerson (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game versus the Raiders.; Kelvin Banks Jr. (IR) — Banks (ankle) underwent surgery this week, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.; Travis Etienne Jr. (Questionable) — Etienne (hamstring) practiced in a limited capacity Thursday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Barion Brown (Out) — Brown (hamstring) is listed as out for Sunday's game versus Las Vegas.; Jonas Sanker (Questionable) — Sanker (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice.; Nathan Shepherd (Questionable) — questionable
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Kirk Cousins is the projected starting quarterback for LV
7 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Kirk Cousins threw for 413 passing yards, completed 67.8% of his passes and averaged 7 yards per attempt. Last season over 10 games he threw for 1721 yards, completed 61.7% and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO
7.36 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Tyler Shough threw for 662 passing yards, completed 68.9% of his passes and averaged 7.36 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 2384 yards, completed 67.6% and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
TRENCHES
LV: 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game to NO's 136.5
36 YPGLV is at 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; NO is at 136.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.
PASS RUSH
LV: 4 sacks recorded per game to NO's 2
2 SACKSLas Vegas has recorded 4 sacks per game, while New Orleans has recorded 2. Both defenses have only 2 games behind those rates, so the gap can shift on a few successful rushes. Las Vegas brings the stronger early sack profile, while pressure markets need caution when the sample is this short.
PACE & SCRIPT
LV: 13.5 points allowed per game to NO's 24
10.5 PPGLV is at 13.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; NO is at 24 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LV was at 25.4 over 17 games and NO at 22.5 over 17 games.
NO: 75 offensive plays per game to LV's 63.5
11.5 PLAYSLV is at 63.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; NO is at 75 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LV was at 55.8 over 17 games and NO at 63.2 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
LV: 2.5 takeaways per game to NO's 1
1.5 TOLas Vegas has produced 2.5 takeaways per game, compared with 1 for New Orleans. Those totals span 2 games, and turnovers can turn on a small number of plays. Las Vegas has created more disruption so far, but turnover production is a volatile input when sizing any matchup angle.
NO: 1 interception thrown per game to LV's 1.5
0.5 INTLV is at 1.5 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; NO is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season LV was at 1.12 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
NO: 5.1 yards per play to LV's 4.7
0.4 Y/PNew Orleans has the stronger early offense per play and is almost exactly at its 17-game level from last season. Las Vegas has improved from its own prior-season mark, but remains behind New Orleans through two games. The sample is small, so the useful matchup angle is whether New Orleans can keep its usual efficiency while Las Vegas tries to sustain its early improvement.
RED ZONE
LV: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to NO's 71.4%
11.4 PPLV is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; NO is at 71.4% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.
MISMATCH
LV: 1 sacks taken a game to NO's 4
1 VS 4Las Vegas has taken 1 sack a game through 2 games, while New Orleans has taken 4. Las Vegas was at 4 sacks a game last season, so its protection has improved sharply early, while New Orleans is above its 3.06 rate. The Raiders can keep their offense on schedule if they protect the quarterback; New Orleans needs to reduce negative plays to avoid stalled drives.
COVERAGE
LV: 29.2% third downs allowed to NO's 40.9%
11.7 PPLas Vegas has forced more third-down stops than New Orleans through 2 games. The Raiders' early edge matters for drive length, though 2 games is too little evidence to treat either rate as fixed.
REPLACEMENT
Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT) is on injured reserve for NO
IRBanks is on injured reserve after ankle surgery this week. He is unavailable against Las Vegas, removing a Saints offensive tackle from the line for this game.
Zach Wood (LS) is on injured reserve for NO
IRWood is out for New Orleans after a calf injury led to an injured-reserve placement Friday. A long snapper works on punts, field goals and extra points, so the Saints need a replacement in that specialist role against Las Vegas.
PRACTICE REPORT
Treydan Stukes
OutConcussion · Did not practice · Out
Barion Brown
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Christen Miller
OutToe · Did not practice · Out
Martin Emerson Jr.
QuestionableShoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
Aidan O'Connell
QuestionableNot injury related - personal matter · Did not practice · Questionable
Brock Bowers
QuestionableKnee · Did not practice · Questionable
Kwity Paye
QuestionableIllness · Limited practice · Questionable
Chris Olave
LPLimited practice
Nathan Shepherd
LPLimited practice
Nakobe Dean
FPFull practice
JJ Pegues
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Juwan Johnson
FPFull practice
Ashton Jeanty
FPFull practice
Folorunso Fatukasi
FPFull practice
Alvin Kamara
FPFull practice
Darien Porter
FPFull practice
Oscar Delp
FPFull practice
Kendre Miller
FPFull practice
Travis Etienne Jr.
FPHamstring · Full practice
Dareke Young
FPFull practice
Chase Young
FPFull practice
Cameron Jordan
FPFull practice
Davon Godchaux
FPFull practice
Isaiah Stalbird
FPFull practice
Jonas Sanker
FPFull practice
Segun Olubi
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
LV (2-0) at NO (1-1)
-20 PT GAPLas Vegas is 2-0 and +26, while New Orleans is 1-1 and +6. The Raiders won their only road game, and the Saints have no home result listed, so Las Vegas brings the stronger overall start without much evidence about New Orleans in this building. The Raiders' two-game streak is useful context, though it remains an early-season sample.
AFTER GARY
LV +3 → +3.5
NOW +0.5Gary's number was 3; the same book now shows 3.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKTRAVIS ETIENNE JR.RECEPTIONS OVER 1.5
New Orleans is a pass-first offense right now: 331 passing yards a game against 78 on the ground, and Tyler Shough has done his best work swinging the ball to the outlet when the rush gets home. Etienne has drawn 5.5 targets a game in 2026, a stable figure across both starts, and he has caught 2 passes in one game and 7 in the other. Las Vegas has allowed 7 catches to running backs across two games, 3.5 a game, and the Raiders' pressure package should force exactly the quick throws that make the back the answer. The line sits at 1.5, so one catch in the flow of the offense plus one checkdown on a late third down clears it.
The strongest case against is his own health. Etienne is on the injury report with a hamstring and was only a limited participant in practice, so his snaps and routes could shrink, and Alvin Kamara carries an elite touch share of his own out of the same backfield. Two games is a thin read on his 2026 role, and his 2025 season produced only 2.2 catches a game.
- GARY'S PICKKIRK COUSINSRUSHING YARDS OVER 1.5
New Orleans has given up 36 rushing yards to quarterbacks over two games, 18 a game, and their front is built to make a veteran move off his spot rather than sit on a sack. Cousins has carried the ball four times and five times in his two starts, and he has been sacked only twice, which tells me he is getting the ball out and still using his legs enough to pick up yards when the pocket closes. The number I need is two rushing yards. One keeper off play action or one scramble on a third down clears it, and the Saints' rush should create that kind of escape lane.
The strongest case against: Cousins is a 15th-year pocket passer whose 2026 rushing line reads 1 yard and minus 6 yards, and six games in 2025 produced 7 rushing yards total. Kneel-downs count against him, and if the New Orleans pressure lands the way it did against Baltimore, he takes the sack instead of running for a gain.
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