Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints
O/U 35.5 · SPREAD Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 · Stade de France
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Pittsburgh Steelers -3 -106
- Published odds
- -106
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 16-10
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 55 moves| Market | Opened Oct 19 6:00 AM | Close Sun 9:21 AM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-110) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 44 (-112) | 43 (-110) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | Pittsburgh Steelers -145 | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 | −20 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 19 6:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-112) | 44 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -145 · New Orleans Saints +120 |
| Oct 19 8:31 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-115) | 44 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -145 · New Orleans Saints +120 |
| Oct 19 9:31 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-105) | Pittsburgh Steelers -145 · New Orleans Saints +120 |
| Oct 19 1:01 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-118) | 44.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -150 · New Orleans Saints +125 |
| Oct 19 1:31 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-102) | 44.5 (-105) | Pittsburgh Steelers -155 · New Orleans Saints +130 |
| Oct 19 2:01 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-108) | 44.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
| Oct 19 2:31 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
| Oct 19 3:31 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +130 |
| Oct 19 4:01 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -155 · New Orleans Saints +130 |
| Oct 19 5:15 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-110) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
| Oct 19 5:25 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 44.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
| Oct 19 6:16 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
| Oct 19 9:10 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +140 |
| Oct 19 9:17 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 · New Orleans Saints +140 |
| Oct 19 9:47 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · New Orleans Saints +155 |
| Oct 19 9:54 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -185 · New Orleans Saints +150 |
| Oct 19 10:55 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · New Orleans Saints +155 |
| Oct 20 7:32 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-102) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · New Orleans Saints +155 |
| Oct 20 8:38 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (+100) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -185 · New Orleans Saints +150 |
| Oct 20 12:45 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-102) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -185 · New Orleans Saints +150 |
| Oct 20 1:46 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (+100) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -185 · New Orleans Saints +150 |
| Oct 20 7:47 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (+100) | 44.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -185 · New Orleans Saints +150 |
| Oct 21 6:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (+100) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -185 · New Orleans Saints +150 |
| Oct 21 12:32 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (+100) | 44.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -185 · New Orleans Saints +150 |
| Oct 21 6:19 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-102) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +150 |
| Oct 21 10:22 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (+100) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -185 · New Orleans Saints +150 |
| Oct 22 12:52 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-102) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +150 |
| Thu 9:31 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-102) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +145 |
| Thu 4:29 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (+100) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +145 |
| Thu 5:43 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-102) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +145 |
| Fri 12:25 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +150 |
| Fri 9:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +145 |
| Fri 4:03 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 44.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +140 |
| Sat 9:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 45 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +140 |
| Sat 3:32 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 44.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +140 |
| Sat 7:03 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +140 |
| Sat 7:33 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 44.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +140 |
| Sat 8:04 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 43.5 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +140 |
| Sat 9:34 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 43.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · New Orleans Saints +140 |
| Sat 10:04 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 43.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 · New Orleans Saints +140 |
| Sat 10:34 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-112) | 43.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 · New Orleans Saints +138 |
| Sun 12:04 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-110) | 43.5 (-105) | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 · New Orleans Saints +140 |
| Sun 12:34 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 · New Orleans Saints +138 |
| Sun 4:45 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
| Sun 6:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-110) | 43 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
| Sun 6:30 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 · New Orleans Saints +138 |
| Sun 7:11 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
| Sun 7:41 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
| Sun 8:12 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
| Sun 8:22 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +130 |
| Sun 8:32 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +130 |
| Sun 8:42 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +130 |
| Sun 8:52 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-108) | 43.5 (-105) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +130 |
| Sun 9:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 · New Orleans Saints +138 |
| Sun 9:11 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -160 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
| CLOSESun 9:21 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -165 · New Orleans Saints +135 |
The read
The NFL's first regular-season game in France kicks off at Stade de France with wind forecast at 15 mph and gusts into the 30s. Pittsburgh is laying 3 on a neutral field, and the weather favors the team that can run the ball and defend.
The gap between these teams is defense. Both offenses gain about the same yardage, 320 a game for Pittsburgh and 322 for New Orleans. But the Steelers allow 308 a game and the Saints allow 378. That includes 205 rushing yards to Atlanta, 165 to Detroit and 153 to Minnesota. Jaylen Warren is averaging 5.5 yards a carry, and the wind makes that run game worth even more. The Saints' backs are at 3.1 and 3.4, so New Orleans gets pushed into throwing into the gusts.
The Saints' offense also looks better on paper than it is. They've scored touchdowns on 16 of 19 red-zone trips, and that rate won't hold. Tyler Shough has gone 32-of-55 for 240 yards over the last two games. Last week's win over the Giants came despite being outgained 461-319; four takeaways handed them four drives starting in Giants territory. Their offensive line is patched together, with Kelvin Banks Jr. on IR and Cesar Ruiz questionable, against a Steelers front with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith healthy.
New Orleans does have a real path. Pittsburgh has allowed 19 sacks, and the Saints hit the quarterback 8 times last week. The Steelers' receiver room is thin, with Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson on IR and Ben Skowronek out. Pittsburgh also leans on field goals, 13 made so far, and gusts this strong make long kicks shaky. That's how this ends up a 1- or 2-point Steelers win.
The turnover margins (Pittsburgh +3, New Orleans -3), the "home team" label, the travel and the off-field stories don't move me. The Steelers have the better defense and the better run game, and the weather rewards both. I'll lay the 3, with modest confidence.
Injuries noted
Pittsburgh Steelers: Daequan Hardy (IR) — Hardy (undisclosed) reverted to Pittsburgh's injured reserve Tuesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Cole Burgess (IR) — ir; Logan Lee (IR) — ir; Jack Driscoll (IR-R) — The Steelers placed Driscoll (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.; Gennings Dunker (IR) — The Steelers placed Dunker (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Michael Pittman Jr. (IR) — The Steelers placed Pittman (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.; Derrick Harmon (IR) — The Steelers placed Harmon (foot) on injured reserve Monday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.; Ben Skowronek (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Calf); practice: DNP. The Steelers have ruled Skowronek (calf) out for Sunday's matchup against the Saints, Mike DeFabo of The Athletic reports.; Roman Wilson (IR) — Wilson (finger) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.; Brandin Echols (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Hamstring); practice: DNP. Echols (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's matchup with the Saints, Mike DeFabo of The Athletic reports.; Rico Dowdle (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited. Dowdle (knee) was a limited participant in Friday's practice and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints in Paris, NFL insider Adam Caplan reports.; Sebastian Joseph-Day (IR) — Joseph-Day (triceps) was placed on injured reserve by the Steelers on Thursday, Teresa Varley of the team's official website reports.; DeShon Elliott (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Full. The Steelers activated Elliott (knee) from IR on Saturday ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints.
New Orleans Saints: Mason Tipton (PUP-R) — Tipton (leg) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Saints on Sunday.; Nick Saldiveri (PUP-R) — New Orleans placed Saldiveri (knee) on its reserve/physically unable to perform list Tuesday.; Bryan Bresee (IR) — ir; Dillon Radunz (IR) — ir; Jordyn Tyson (IR); Ty Chandler (IR) — The Saints placed Chandler (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; David Long Jr. (IR) — The Saints placed Long (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; Moliki Matavao (IR) — The Saints placed Matavao (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Rejzohn Wright (IR) — Wright (hip) was put on injured reserve by the Saints on Monday.; Kelvin Banks Jr. (IR) — Banks (ankle) underwent surgery this week, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.; Travis Etienne Jr. (IR) — The Saints are placing Etienne (hamstring) on injured reserve, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.; Cesar Ruiz (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited. Ruiz (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.; Nathan Shepherd (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Illness); practice: DNP. Shepherd (illness) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers in Paris.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Aaron Rodgers is the projected starting quarterback for PIT
6.38 Y/AThrough 6 games in 2026, Aaron Rodgers threw for 1487 passing yards, completed 61.4% of his passes and averaged 6.38 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3322 yards, completed 65.7% and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 12-5 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.
Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO
6.14 Y/AThrough 6 games in 2026, Tyler Shough threw for 1443 passing yards, completed 65.1% of his passes and averaged 6.14 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 2384 yards, completed 67.6% and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 12-5 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.
TRENCHES
PIT: 103.2 rushing yards allowed per game to NO's 138
34.8 YPGThe Steelers give up 103.2 rushing yards a game over 6 games; the Saints give up 138 over 6. Rushing yards allowed lean on game script, since teams that fall behind see opponents run late, so some of the Saints number may come from trailing. Even so the gap is wide. For this game, Pittsburgh's ground game has the better matchup, which matters for running back props and clock control.
PASS RUSH
NO: 2.17 sacks taken per game to PIT's 3.17
1 SACKSPIT is at 3.17 sacks taken per game over 6 games; NO is at 2.17 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season PIT was at 2.38 over 17 games and NO at 3.06 over 17 games.
NO: 16.3 sack yards lost per game to PIT's 26.5
10.2 YDSPIT is at 26.5 sack yards lost per game over 6 games; NO is at 16.3 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season PIT was at 14.8 over 17 games and NO at 18.7 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
PIT: 21.3 points allowed per game to NO's 29.7
8.3 PPGNew Orleans allows 29.7 a game after 22.5 last season, a big jump over six games. Pittsburgh is at 21.3, slightly better than last season's 22.8. The Saints' number is likely to drift down some, but six games of this means something is off. Pittsburgh's offense has a good spot here, even if the full gap shrinks.
TURNOVERS
PIT: 1.17 turnovers committed per game to NO's 2
0.83 TONew Orleans turns it over twice a game, up from 1.41 last season, while Pittsburgh is at 1.17 after 0.88. Six games is a decent sample, but turnovers bounce around, so expect the Saints' number to come down some. Pittsburgh has the safer offense on the road. The Saints giving away possessions is a real worry until they show they can stop it.
PIT: 0.33 fumbles lost per game to NO's 1.17
0.83 FUMPIT is at 0.33 fumbles lost per game over 6 games; NO is at 1.17 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season PIT was at 0.35 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
PIT: 5.1 yards per play to NO's 4.68
0.42 Y/PPittsburgh gets a bit more out of each snap than New Orleans, but both offenses sit below what they did last season: the Steelers at 5.1 over 6 games against 5.22, and the Saints at 4.68 against 5.05. Pittsburgh had no play of 20 yards or more in its last game, so it is moving the ball in short pieces. The Saints at least found chunk plays from Tyler Shough, a 31-yard touchdown pass to Alvin Kamara and a 25-yard run. Expect a grinding game where one or two explosive plays decide it, and New Orleans has shown more of those lately.
RED ZONE
NO: 84.2% red-zone scoring rate to PIT's 53.3%
30.9 PPNew Orleans is scoring on 84.2% of red-zone trips over 6 games, a massive jump from 44.4% last season. Pittsburgh is at 53.3%, close to its 58.8% a year ago. The Saints' rate is far above their own recent history and red-zone numbers swing hard over short stretches, so expect it to come down. Pittsburgh's figure looks more like its true level.
PIT: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to NO's 61.5%
11.5 PPPIT is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 6 games; NO is at 61.5% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
MISMATCH
PIT: 21.3 points allowed a game to NO's 29.7
21.3 VS 29.7New Orleans allows 29.7 points a game over six games, a big jump from 22.5 last season, while Pittsburgh gives up 21.3, slightly better than 22.8. The Steelers get to attack a defense that has slipped badly, and the Saints have to outscore them. A seven-point jump over six games may ease some. Pittsburgh's steadier defense against a leaky unit tilts the scoring.
COVERAGE
PIT: 32.5% third downs allowed to NO's 44.6%
12.1 PPPittsburgh lets offences convert 32.5% of third downs over 6 games, and New Orleans allows 44.6% over 6. That gap is the difference between getting off the field and giving up long drives. Third down rates swing a lot over six games, so expect both to drift somewhat toward the middle. For this game, the Steelers offence should find more extra chances on the money down than the Saints offence will, which matters for time of possession and the pace of the game.
PIT: 5.1 yards per play allowed to NO's 5.9
0.8 Y/PPittsburgh allows 5.1 yards a snap over 6 games, and New Orleans allows 5.9 over 6. That difference means the Saints defense gives up chunk plays more easily. Six games is a modest sample and the opponents faced are not listed, so both can move. It points to the Steelers offence having the cleaner path to moving the ball in this game.
PIT: 204.3 passing yards allowed per game to NO's 239.7
35.3 YPGPIT is at 204.3 passing yards allowed per game over 6 games; NO is at 239.7 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
REPLACEMENT
Roman Wilson (WR) is on injured reserve for PIT
IRPittsburgh put receiver Roman Wilson on injured reserve with a finger injury on Oct 17. IR means he misses the New Orleans game and several more after it. Other Steelers receivers absorb his targets, so the passing game runs through a smaller group for now.
Sebastian Joseph-Day (DT) is on injured reserve for PIT
IRSebastian Joseph-Day went on injured reserve with a triceps injury on Oct 23, so the Steelers defensive line plays New Orleans without him. IR keeps him out this week and for at least several more. Other interior linemen take his snaps, which is worth weighing if you like the Saints on the ground.
Jordyn Tyson (WR) is on injured reserve for NO
IRNew Orleans has receiver Jordyn Tyson on injured reserve as of Oct 21, with no injury listed. He misses the Pittsburgh game, and IR rules out a quick return. His targets move to the other Saints receivers, and New Orleans enters this game short a pass catcher just like Pittsburgh.
PRACTICE REPORT
Brandin Echols
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
CJ Donaldson
OutFull practice · Out
Ben Skowronek
OutCalf · Did not practice · Out
Cesar Ruiz
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
Nathan Shepherd
QuestionableIllness, Not injury related - resting player · Did not practice · Questionable
Rico Dowdle
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
DeShon Elliott
QuestionableKnee · Full practice · Questionable
Alvin Kamara
LPLimited practice
Cameron Heyward
FPFull practice
Tyler Shough
FPFull practice
Daniel Carlson
FPFull practice
Kool-Aid McKinstry
FPFull practice
Anfernee Jennings
FPFull practice
Kaden Elliss
FPFull practice
T.J. Watt
FPFull practice
Spencer Rattler
FPFull practice
Asim Richards
FPFull practice
Davon Godchaux
FPFull practice
Jalen Ramsey
FPFull practice
Alex Highsmith
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
PIT (4-2) at NO (2-4)
-35 PT GAPPittsburgh is 4-2 but only +9 on the year, so the wins have been narrow, and the Steelers are 1-2 on the road. New Orleans is 0-3 at home and -26 overall, though it did win its last game. The Saints have yet to win in their own building, which removes the usual home edge. Pittsburgh's thin margin suggests a team that wins close, so expect this to stay tighter than the records imply.
TEAM RECORD
PIT is 1-2 on the road; NO is 0-3 at home
1-2NO hasn't won at home, 0-3, and PIT has one win in three road games. Three games apiece is a thin sample, and home records like this usually even out over a season. The split points to PIT, but with only one road win of their own, the edge here is smaller than the headline makes it sound.
AFTER GARY
PIT -3 → -3
GARY +0.93PPGary's number was -3; the market closed at -3.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, caesars, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJAYLEN WARRENRUSHING YARDS OVER 64.5
The forecast at Stade de France calls for a 15 mph west wind with gusts into the 30s, and that pushes this game onto the ground. Pittsburgh has every reason to lean on Jaylen Warren here. The receiver room is short: Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson are on IR and Ben Skowronek is out. Warren is getting about 14 carries a game at 5.5 yards a pop, and he already has 101 against the Colts, 93 against the Browns and 127 against the Bengals.
New Orleans is the right opponent for it. Atlanta ran for 205 on them, Detroit 165 and Minnesota 153. Backs are averaging close to five yards a carry against this front, with 11 rushing touchdowns in six games. The interior is thin too. Bryan Bresee is on IR, and Nathan Shepherd is questionable with an illness after missing practice all week and the last two games. A Steelers team laying 3 in gusty conditions will want to protect a lead with handoffs, and that adds fourth-quarter carries to a line that only asks for about what Warren does in a normal week.
What beats it: Rico Dowdle. He was limited on Friday with the knee and is listed questionable. If he plays, he took 7 carries last week, and a bigger split cuts into Warren's volume. Kaden Elliss is off the injury report after missing Week 6, so the Saints may have their linebacker back. And if New Orleans gets an early lead off a turnover, Rodgers ends up throwing, which is how Warren finished with 50 yards on 14 carries at Tampa.
- GARY'S PICKTYLER SHOUGHPASSING YARDS UNDER 221.5
Tyler Shough's passing has dried up over the last two weeks: 96 yards against Minnesota and 144 at the Giants. New Orleans has already moved toward the run. They handed off 33 times last week and Kendre Miller got 20 carries. Gusts in the 30s give them every reason to keep doing that, because wind hurts the intermediate and deep throws that produce yardage most of all.
The matchup points the same way. Pittsburgh has given up six passing touchdowns with six interceptions, and with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith healthy they'll be rushing against a Saints line missing Kelvin Banks Jr. and maybe Cesar Ruiz. Chris Olave is the Saints' route to a big passing day, and his targets have fallen to 7 and 6 the last two weeks. He hasn't topped 46 yards in either game. Once a short field or two puts New Orleans in scoring range, the play is to run Miller and Shough himself on the goal line and skip anything risky into the wind.
What beats it: game script. If Pittsburgh gets up by two scores, Shough can throw 45 to 55 times like he did in the 410-yard game at Detroit and the 286-yard loss to Atlanta, and volume alone can carry him past this number. The Steelers are without cornerback Brandin Echols, and DeShon Elliott is playing his first game off IR. If the coverage gives up a couple of catch-and-run plays to Olave or Devaughn Vele, this line is gone.
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