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NFL · Mon, Oct 5 · 8:15 PM

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

O/U 47.5 · SPREAD New Orleans Saints -1.5 · Caesars Superdome

GARY'S PICK
Falcons Moneyline
NFL@ Saints· -102

Falcons
Moneyline

-102 · CASHED · ATL 45 · NO 24

Saints

The pick & result

Published pick
Atlanta Falcons ML -102
Published odds
-102
Result
Won
Final score
45-24

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 46 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 30 6:00 AM
Close
Oct 5 8:14 PM
Move
SPREADNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-118)New Orleans Saints -1 (-105)−1½
TOTAL48 (-118)48 (-110)Price
MONEYLINENew Orleans Saints -150New Orleans Saints -115+35
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 30 6:00 AMNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-118)48 (-118)New Orleans Saints -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125
Sep 30 10:31 AMNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-118)48.5 (-108)New Orleans Saints -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125
Sep 30 1:34 PMNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-118)47.5 (-108)New Orleans Saints -150 · Atlanta Falcons +125
Sep 30 2:34 PMNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-112)47.5 (-108)New Orleans Saints -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120
Sep 30 5:35 PMNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-115)47.5 (-108)New Orleans Saints -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120
Sep 30 6:35 PMNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-112)47.5 (-108)New Orleans Saints -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120
Oct 1 5:04 PMNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-115)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120
Oct 1 6:15 PMNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-115)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120
Oct 1 7:56 PMNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-115)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120
Oct 1 9:17 PMNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -145 · Atlanta Falcons +120
Oct 2 5:32 PMNew Orleans Saints -2.5 (-108)48 (-110)New Orleans Saints -140 · Atlanta Falcons +115
Oct 2 6:02 PMNew Orleans Saints -2 (-110)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -135 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 3 8:31 AMNew Orleans Saints -2 (-108)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 3 4:11 PMNew Orleans Saints -2 (-110)47.5 (-108)New Orleans Saints -135 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 3 9:20 PMNew Orleans Saints -2 (-110)48 (-110)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 3 9:50 PMNew Orleans Saints -2 (-108)48 (-108)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 3 10:51 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)48 (-108)New Orleans Saints -125 · Atlanta Falcons +105
Oct 4 7:30 AMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)48 (-110)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +105
Oct 4 7:41 AMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 4 6:50 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)47.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 4 7:11 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)48 (-110)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 4 7:21 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)47.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 4 8:12 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)48 (-110)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 4 9:22 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)47.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 4 9:52 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)48 (-110)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 4 10:22 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)47.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 4 10:53 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)48 (-110)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 4 11:23 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)47.5 (-112)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 5 12:24 AMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -125 · Atlanta Falcons +105
Oct 5 5:00 AMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)48 (-110)New Orleans Saints -125 · Atlanta Falcons +105
Oct 5 6:00 AMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -125 · Atlanta Falcons +105
Oct 5 6:31 AMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -130 · Atlanta Falcons +110
Oct 5 8:01 AMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-108)48 (-110)New Orleans Saints -120 · Atlanta Falcons +105
Oct 5 3:56 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-110)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -118 · Atlanta Falcons +100
Oct 5 4:15 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-105)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -125 · Atlanta Falcons +105
Oct 5 4:57 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-105)48 (-108)New Orleans Saints -120 · Atlanta Falcons +100
Oct 5 5:15 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-105)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -125 · Atlanta Falcons +105
Oct 5 6:05 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-105)47.5 (-108)New Orleans Saints -125 · Atlanta Falcons +105
Oct 5 6:11 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-105)48 (-108)New Orleans Saints -125 · Atlanta Falcons +105
Oct 5 6:22 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-105)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -120 · Atlanta Falcons +100
Oct 5 6:59 PMNew Orleans Saints -1.5 (-105)47.5 (-108)New Orleans Saints -120 · Atlanta Falcons +100
Oct 5 7:13 PMNew Orleans Saints -1 (-120)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -120 · Atlanta Falcons +100
Oct 5 7:23 PMNew Orleans Saints -1 (-118)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -118 · Atlanta Falcons +100
Oct 5 7:33 PMNew Orleans Saints -1 (-105)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -118 · Atlanta Falcons -102
Oct 5 7:53 PMNew Orleans Saints -1 (-105)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -118 · Atlanta Falcons +100
Oct 5 8:03 PMNew Orleans Saints -1 (-105)47.5 (-110)New Orleans Saints -112 · Atlanta Falcons -105
CLOSEOct 5 8:14 PMNew Orleans Saints -1 (-105)48 (-110)New Orleans Saints -115 · Atlanta Falcons -105

The read

This line says the teams are about even, with the Saints getting a small edge for playing at home. I think the matchup favors Atlanta enough to win the game outright.

1. The Saints' defense is missing its key run defenders. Kaden Elliss is inactive after playing every snap this season; Elliss leads the team in tackles and was their main blitzer. Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings are also inactive, and those are the edge players who stop outside runs. Pete Werner is playing after being questionable with a neck injury and played only 27% of snaps last week. About 70% of Atlanta's runs go outside the tackles. The Saints already allow 5.7 yards per carry on those runs and 128.7 rushing yards per game. Now backups like Stutsman and the newly elevated Diggs and Sirmon have to tackle Bijan Robinson, who leads the league in scrimmage yards and has 22 forced missed tackles. The line hasn't moved much on these losses. Most are not big names, but they matter a lot for how this game is played.

2. Atlanta's season numbers come mostly from its backup quarterbacks. Cooper Rush and Jack Strand played in Weeks 1 and 2, when the offense was well below average. With Michael Penix Jr. back, Atlanta gained 498 yards and gave up no sacks. Penix has also had 11 days to prepare and took all the first-team practice reps for the first time this season. I'm betting on the offense Atlanta has with Penix, not its 1-2 record. If Atlanta can run the ball and control the clock the way it did at Green Bay, the Saints' offense spends a lot of the game on the sideline.

3. Atlanta can pressure Tyler Shough without blitzing. Atlanta gets pressure 41.6% of the time while blitzing only 19%. The Saints are playing without starting left tackle Kelvin Banks, and Shough has been sacked 10 times and is responsible for 6 of their 7 turnovers, including 3 lost fumbles. The Saints have turned it over 7 times in their two losses and none in their win. Atlanta's pressure gives them a real chance to force mistakes.

4. The Saints lose some of their own scoring and pass rush. Noah Fant is out, and the tight ends have scored 6 of the Saints' 9 red-zone touchdowns. Losing Granderson and Jennings also leaves Chase Young and Cameron Jordan to carry the pass rush mostly on their own.

The risks: this ticket needs Atlanta to win outright, and this rivalry tends to produce close games, so a narrow Saints win beats it. Penix has played only one game since returning, and Green Bay ran just 9 times, which helped Atlanta's numbers. Atlanta's secondary is weak, with Mike Hughes allowing 10.5 yards per target. Chris Olave and a pass-heavy Saints offense can attack that, and the emotional Superdome anniversary crowd could help the Saints. Because of those risks I'm only modestly confident, but I'd still put money on Atlanta at close to even money.

Injuries noted

Atlanta Falcons: Storm Norton (PUP-R) — out; DeAngelo Malone (PUP-R) — Undisclosed; Anterio Thompson (NFI-R) — The Falcons moved Thompson (undisclosed) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Jalon Walker (IR) — Knee - ACL; James Pearce Jr. (Reserve-Sus) — reserve-sus; JD Bertrand (IR) — The Falcons placed Bertrand (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Beaux Collins (IR-R) — The Falcons placed Collins (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return during the season, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Trey Sermon (IR) — ir; Cameron Williams (IR) — The Falcons placed Williams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Malcolm DeWalt IV (Inactive) — Coach's Decision; Ethan Onianwa (Inactive) — Coach's Decision; Da'Shawn Hand (IR) — The Falcons placed Hand (quadriceps) on injured reserve Wednesday, William McFadden of the team's official site reports.; A.J. Terrell Jr. (IR) — The Falcons placed Terrell (groin) on injured reserve Tuesday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.; Kendal Daniels (Questionable) — questionable; Divine Deablo (Questionable) — Deablo (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Saints, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.; Samson Ebukam (Questionable) — questionable; Robert Longerbeam (Inactive) — Coach's Decision; Cooper Rush (Inactive) — Coach's Decision; Jack Strand (Inactive) — Coach's Decision; Yasir Abdullah (Questionable) — Abdullah is questionable for Monday's matchup against New Orleans due to an illness, Daniel Flick of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

New Orleans Saints: Mason Tipton (PUP-R) — Tipton (leg) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Saints on Sunday.; Nick Saldiveri (PUP-R) — Knee; Bryan Bresee (IR) — Knee - ACL; Dillon Radunz (IR) — ir; Jordyn Tyson (IR-R) — Tyson (hamstring) is said to be making progress and feeling good but isn't expected to be activated from injured reserve until Week 7 at the soonest, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Ty Chandler (IR) — The Saints placed Chandler (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Jaylan Ford (IR-R) — Ford (undisclosed) was placed on New Orleans' injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; David Long Jr. (IR) — The Saints placed Long (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; Moliki Matavao (IR) — The Saints placed Matavao (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Lorenzo Styles Jr. (IR) — ir; Rejzohn Wright (IR) — Wright (hip) was put on injured reserve by the Saints on Monday.; Zach Wilson (Inactive) — inactive; Zach Wood (IR) — The Saints placed Wood (calf) on injured reserve Friday.; Christen Miller (Inactive) — inactive; Decamerion Richardson (Inactive) — inactive; Martin Emerson Jr. (Questionable) — questionable; Kelvin Banks Jr. (IR) — Banks (ankle) underwent surgery this week, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.; Travis Etienne Jr. (IR) — The Saints are placing Etienne (hamstring) on injured reserve, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.; Barion Brown (Questionable) — questionable; Pete Werner (Questionable) — Werner (neck) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Falcons, Matthew Paras of The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports.; Anfernee Jennings (Inactive) — inactive; Noah Fant (Inactive) — inactive; Julian Blackmon (Questionable) — Blackmon (calf) was a limited participant at the Saints' practice Thursday.; Kaden Elliss (Inactive) — inactive; Carl Granderson (Inactive) — inactive

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Michael Penix Jr. is the projected starting quarterback for ATL

    10.24 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 256 passing yards, completed 72% of his passes and averaged 10.24 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 1982 yards, completed 60.1% and averaged 7.18 yards per attempt, 9-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.

  • Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO

    6.95 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Tyler Shough threw for 917 passing yards, completed 68.9% of his passes and averaged 6.95 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 2384 yards, completed 67.6% and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 8-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

TRENCHES

  • ATL: 47.7 rushing yards allowed per game to NO's 128.7

    81 YPG

    Atlanta has allowed only 47.7 rushing yards a game over 3 games, while New Orleans gives up 128.7. Three games is a thin sample, and run defense numbers bend with game script: teams that fall behind stop running. Expect Atlanta's figure to climb. In this spot, Atlanta's backs face a defense that has given up yards on the ground, while New Orleans may have to lean on the pass.

PASS RUSH

  • ATL: 13.7 sack yards lost per game to NO's 24.3

    10.7 YDS

    ATL is at 13.7 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; NO is at 24.3 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 4. Last season ATL was at 12.9 over 17 games and NO at 18.7 over 17 games.

  • ATL: 2.33 sacks taken per game to NO's 3.33

    1 SACKS

    ATL is at 2.33 sacks taken per game over 3 games; NO is at 3.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 4. Last season ATL was at 1.86 over 17 games and NO at 3.06 over 17 games.

  • NO: 2.33 sacks recorded per game to ATL's 1.67

    0.67 SACKS

    ATL is at 1.67 sacks recorded per game over 3 games; NO is at 2.33 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 4.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • NO: 27 points per game to ATL's 17

    10 PPG

    ATL is at 17 points per game over 3 games; NO is at 27 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 4. Last season ATL was at 20.8 over 17 games and NO at 18 over 17 games.

  • NO: 74 offensive plays per game to ATL's 63.3

    10.7 PLAYS

    ATL is at 63.3 offensive plays per game over 3 games; NO is at 74 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 4. Last season ATL was at 61.6 over 17 games and NO at 63.2 over 17 games.

  • ATL: 22.7 points allowed per game to NO's 27.7

    5 PPG

    ATL is at 22.7 points allowed per game over 3 games; NO is at 27.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 4. Last season ATL was at 23.6 over 17 games and NO at 22.5 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • NO: 1 interception thrown per game to ATL's 2

    1 INT

    ATL is at 2 interceptions thrown per game over 3 games; NO is at 1 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 4. Last season ATL was at 0.47 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.

  • ATL: 0.67 fumbles lost per game to NO's 1.33

    0.67 FUM

    ATL is at 0.67 fumbles lost per game over 3 games; NO is at 1.33 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 4. Last season ATL was at 0.59 over 17 games and NO at 0.71 over 17 games.

RED ZONE

  • NO: 3.67 red-zone trips per game to ATL's 1.67

    2 TRIPS

    ATL is at 1.67 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; NO is at 3.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 4. Last season ATL was at 2.94 over 17 games and NO at 2.65 over 17 games.

  • ATL: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to NO's 61.5%

    11.5 PP

    ATL is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 3 games; NO is at 61.5% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 4.

MISMATCH

  • NO: 281.3 pass yards a game to ATL's 167.7

    281.3 VS 167.7

    New Orleans is throwing for 281.3 yards a game through only 3 games, and Atlanta is at 167.7. Last season the Saints were at 219.3 and the Falcons at 207.2, so both numbers have moved far from their normal in a short stretch. Expect them to drift back toward each other. Atlanta's job at New Orleans is to run the ball and keep the Saints passing game on the bench.

COVERAGE

  • ATL: 35.7% third downs allowed to NO's 47.1%

    11.3 PP

    Atlanta allows 35.7% on third down, New Orleans 47.1%, both over just three games. That puts the Saints near the bottom on getting off the field, and the Falcons in a decent spot. Three games is a very small sample, so both numbers could move a lot. For this game, the Saints defense looks more likely to give Atlanta extended drives.

  • NO: 211.7 passing yards allowed per game to ATL's 263

    51.3 YPG

    New Orleans has allowed 211.7 passing yards a game, Atlanta 263, and both figures come from only 3 games. That sample is short enough that one opponent's game plan, a pass-heavy comeback or a run-first script, can shape the whole average. The fact sheet doesn't say who either team faced, so the gap could narrow quickly. When Atlanta's offense takes the field, the Saints' secondary looks like the tougher matchup on paper, but a three-game read is a starting point.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • ATL lead the series with NO since 2025

    2-0 SERIES

    Atlanta has won both meetings, but they looked very different: a 24-10 road win in New Orleans in November, then a 19-17 squeaker at home in January. Two games is a small sample, and the second one shows the gap was much narrower by season's end. Heading back to New Orleans, the closer January game is the more useful picture of this matchup.

REPLACEMENT

  • Zach Wilson (QB) is inactive for NO

    INACTIVE

    Wilson is inactive by coach's decision and will be the Saints' emergency third quarterback for the game against the Falcons. That is a routine roster spot with no injury involved. It has no bearing on the Saints' starter or game plan unless two quarterbacks go down.

  • Cooper Rush (QB) is inactive for ATL

    INACTIVE

    Rush is inactive by coach's decision for Thursday's game against the Saints, but he will serve as the emergency quarterback. This is a depth-chart move, not an injury, so it changes nothing about who starts for Atlanta. It only matters if the starter gets hurt during the game.

  • Za'Darius Smith (DE) is questionable for ATL

    QUESTIONABLE

    Smith left Monday night's game against the Saints with a concussion and was ruled out for the rest of it. Concussions go through a set protocol, so his status for the next game depends on how he clears it, and the questionable tag reflects that uncertainty. A pass rusher missing time means less pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the other edge players take on his snaps.

  • Jake Matthews (OT) is questionable for ATL

    QUESTIONABLE

    Matthews, the Falcons' left tackle, was downgraded to out for the rest of Monday's game against the Saints with a groin injury. Questionable leaves his next game open, and groin injuries can take time to settle. If he sits, a backup has to protect the quarterback's blind side, which is a spot where bettors can expect more pressure on Atlanta's passer.

  • Divine Deablo (LB) is questionable for ATL

    QUESTIONABLE

    Deablo's hamstring makes him a true game-time question for Monday in New Orleans, and hamstrings can linger or tighten up mid-game. The sheet doesn't say who fills in at linebacker if he sits. If he's out, the Saints short passing game and Fant, if active, get an easier matchup.

  • Jack Strand (QB) is inactive for ATL

    INACTIVE

    Atlanta lists Strand as inactive. The sheet gives no injury or reason, and as a depth quarterback his absence has no effect on who starts. There is nothing here for a bettor to act on.

  • Yasir Abdullah (LB) is questionable for ATL

    QUESTIONABLE

    Abdullah is questionable for Monday's matchup against New Orleans due to an illness, Daniel Flick of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. Reported Oct 3.

  • Julian Blackmon (S) is questionable for NO

    QUESTIONABLE

    Blackmon (calf) was a limited participant at the Saints' practice Thursday. Reported Oct 2.

  • Pete Werner (LB) is questionable for NO

    QUESTIONABLE

    Werner (neck) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Falcons, Matthew Paras of The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports. Reported Oct 3.

  • Barion Brown (WR) is questionable for NO

    QUESTIONABLE

    NO lists Barion Brown as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

  • Jordyn Tyson (WR) is ir-r for NO

    IR-R

    Tyson (hamstring) is said to be making progress and feeling good but isn't expected to be activated from injured reserve until Week 7 at the soonest, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Oct 5.

  • Martin Emerson Jr. (CB) is questionable for NO

    QUESTIONABLE

    NO lists Martin Emerson Jr. as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

  • Samson Ebukam (DE) is questionable for ATL

    QUESTIONABLE

    ATL lists Samson Ebukam as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 29.

  • Noah Fant (TE) is inactive for NO

    INACTIVE

    Fant (abdomen) is listed as inactive for Monday's game against the Falcons. Reported Oct 5.

  • Travis Etienne Jr. (RB) is on injured reserve for NO

    IR

    The Saints are placing Etienne (hamstring) on injured reserve, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports. Reported Oct 1.

  • Kendal Daniels (LB) is questionable for ATL

    QUESTIONABLE

    ATL lists Kendal Daniels as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 2.

  • Christen Miller (DT) is inactive for NO

    INACTIVE

    Miller (coach's decision) is inactive for Monday night's contest against the Falcons. Reported Oct 5.

  • Carl Granderson (DE) is inactive for NO

    INACTIVE

    NO lists Carl Granderson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Oct 5.

  • Robert Longerbeam (CB) is inactive for ATL

    INACTIVE

    ATL lists Robert Longerbeam as inactive on the injury report. Reported Oct 5.

  • Malcolm DeWalt IV (CB) is inactive for ATL

    INACTIVE

    ATL lists Malcolm DeWalt IV as inactive on the injury report. Reported Oct 5.

  • Decamerion Richardson (CB) is inactive for NO

    INACTIVE

    NO lists Decamerion Richardson as inactive on the injury report. Reported Oct 5.

  • Ethan Onianwa (OT) is inactive for ATL

    INACTIVE

    ATL lists Ethan Onianwa as inactive on the injury report. Reported Oct 5.

  • Kaden Elliss (LB) is inactive for NO

    INACTIVE

    NO lists Kaden Elliss as inactive on the injury report. Reported Oct 5.

  • Anfernee Jennings (LB) is inactive for NO

    INACTIVE

    NO lists Anfernee Jennings as inactive on the injury report. Reported Oct 5.

  • Jared Ivey (LB) is inactive for ATL

    INACTIVE

    ATL lists Jared Ivey as inactive on the injury report. Reported Oct 6.

  • A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB) is on injured reserve for ATL

    IR

    The Falcons placed Terrell (groin) on injured reserve Tuesday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 22.

  • Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT) is on injured reserve for NO

    IR

    Banks (ankle) underwent surgery this week, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports. Reported Sep 26.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Anfernee Jennings

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Kaden Elliss

    Out

    Calf · Did not practice · Out

  • Carl Granderson

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Noah Fant

    Questionable

    Abdomen · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Samson Ebukam

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Full practice · Questionable

  • Yasir Abdullah

    Questionable

    Illness · Full practice · Questionable

  • Divine Deablo

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Pete Werner

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Treyton Welch

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Nathan Shepherd

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Jake Matthews

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Jayden Price

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Kendal Daniels

    FP

    Full practice

  • Julian Blackmon

    FP

    Full practice

  • Martin Emerson Jr.

    FP

    Full practice

  • Davon Godchaux

    FP

    Full practice

  • Christen Miller

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

  • LaCale London

    FP

    Full practice

  • Za'Darius Smith

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jawaan Taylor

    FP

    Full practice

  • Barion Brown

    FP

    Full practice

  • Travis Etienne Jr.

    LISTED

    Hamstring

SITUATIONAL

  • ATL (1-2) at NO (1-2), a division game

    +15 PT GAP

    Both teams are 1-2 after three games, but New Orleans at -2 has played much closer than Atlanta at -17. The Saints are 0-1 at home, a one-game sample that says little. Atlanta is 1-1 on the road and just won its last game. In a division game between two even records, a bettor should trust the Saints' tighter margin more than Atlanta's one-game streak.

  • ATL has 3 more days of rest

    11d vs 8d

    Atlanta gets 11 days to prepare off its bye, while New Orleans has had 8, so the Falcons have three extra days to heal and game plan for a division rival. Bye weeks tend to help most with nagging injuries and installing a few new wrinkles, though teams can also start slow after the layoff. The gap is fixed, so it holds up. Use it as a tiebreaker on how the Falcons handle the first quarter, and do not let it carry the whole case.

AFTER GARY

  • ATL -102 → -106

    GARY +0.96PP

    Gary's number was -102; the same book now shows -106.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 1, 2026 at 4:37 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    ALVIN KAMARARUSHING RECEIVING YARDS UNDER 57.5
    NFLNew Orleans Saints· -115

    Alvin Kamara
    Rushing Receiving Yards under 57.5

    -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 58

    New Orleans Saints

    I'm taking Kamara under 57.5 rushing plus receiving yards at -115. The line asks him to do something the whole Saints backfield hasn't done this year, against the best run defense in the league.

    Kamara has played two games this season. He totaled 41 yards against the Raiders and 22 against the Ravens: 18 carries for 51 yards and six catches for 12 yards. That is 2.8 yards a carry from a 31-year-old back, and New Orleans' run game was already one of its weak spots before tonight.

    Now he faces Atlanta's front. Through three games, opposing running backs have 46 carries for 144 yards against the Falcons, no rushing touchdowns, and 14 catches for 60 yards. That's every back on every opponent combined, and it comes to well under 70 scrimmage yards a game. Green Bay ran for 17 yards total. Atlanta got bigger inside with Gervon Dexter and Maason Smith, and Brandon Dorlus is winning his matchups, so this front is beating blocks and the low numbers can't be blamed on light volume alone. The Saints line in front of Kamara is still without Kelvin Banks, with Asim Richards at left tackle. If Atlanta runs the ball and keeps it for long stretches like it did at Lambeau, New Orleans will lean on Shough's arm and Kamara's carries will come in obvious running situations against a front built to stop them.

    The main risk is fresh. Travis Etienne went on injured reserve this week, and he was the lead back. Kamara played about a third of the snaps in each of his two games, and tonight he may get the biggest share of the backfield he's had all year. In 2025, when he was the main back, he went past this number several times, including games of 115, 76, 72 and 120. More snaps also likely means more checkdowns, and he caught five passes against Baltimore. Kendre Miller and CJ Donaldson will still take some of the work. I'm judging Kamara on a two-game sample, so a bigger role is the scenario that beats this ticket. Even with that bump, I don't see him reaching this total on Atlanta's front at his current yards per carry.

  • GARY'S PICK
    TYLER SHOUGHPASSING YARDS UNDER 257.5
    NFLNew Orleans Saints· -113

    Tyler Shough
    Passing Yards under 257.5

    -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 286

    New Orleans Saints

    I'm taking Shough under 257.5 passing yards at -113. His 305 yards a game looks big, but one overtime game is doing most of the work in that average.

    In his two regulation games he threw for 252 at Baltimore on 34 attempts and 255 against the Raiders on 42. Both finished below tonight's number. The 410 came at Detroit in an 86-play overtime game where he dropped back 61 times. The attempts line is 36.5 with the under priced as the favorite, so the market also expects fewer throws tonight than his season average.

    The matchup points the same way. Atlanta's interior rush is producing: Dexter is tied for the most pressures by a defensive tackle, and Dorlus and Maason Smith both rank near the top in pass-rush win rate. Atlanta gets that pressure with four rushers and rarely blitzes, so Shough won't get many free shots against a pressure package. He's working behind a backup left tackle after Kelvin Banks had surgery, and he has turned the ball over six times in three games, including strip-sacks. Atlanta has allowed only 6.3 yards per attempt. Their 273 passing yards allowed per game come mostly from volume, with Jordan Love throwing 53 times while Green Bay chased the game. And if Atlanta runs the ball with Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson and keeps possession the way it did in Green Bay, the Saints get fewer total snaps.

    The case against me is real. This is a pass-first offense, and losing Etienne against a front that stuffs the run pushes New Orleans even further toward throwing. My game call has Atlanta winning, and a Saints team playing from behind will throw. Chris Olave is getting about twelve targets a game, and Mike Hughes has given up a 137 passer rating in coverage, a matchup Shough can go after all night. Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant give him reliable short options. One extra drive could push him over. I'm betting on the version of this game that matches his two regulation games, so I'm keeping my confidence modest.

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