Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
O/U 36.5 · SPREAD Minnesota Vikings -9.5 · Caesars Superdome
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Minnesota Vikings ML -134
- Published odds
- -134
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 23-13
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 50 moves| Market | Opened Oct 5 6:00 AM | Close Oct 11 12:53 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | +1 |
| TOTAL | 42.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-108) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | Minnesota Vikings -125 | Minnesota Vikings -140 | −15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 5 6:00 AM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 42.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · New Orleans Saints +105 |
| Oct 5 3:57 PM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-108) | 42 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -120 · New Orleans Saints +100 |
| Oct 6 12:54 AM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-108) | 42 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · New Orleans Saints +105 |
| Oct 6 6:00 AM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-108) | 42 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · New Orleans Saints +105 |
| Oct 6 9:00 AM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 42 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 6 9:41 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-108) | 42 (-112) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 6 10:42 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-108) | 42 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 6 12:43 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-108) | 42 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 6 2:13 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-108) | 42 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 6 3:14 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-108) | 42 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 6 8:03 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-108) | 42 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 7 6:00 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-108) | 42 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 7 7:30 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 42 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 7 8:30 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 42 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 7 3:33 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 42 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 8 6:00 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-108) | 42 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 8 6:30 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 8 8:00 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-108) | 42 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -135 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 8 8:30 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-108) | 42 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 8 9:31 AM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 8 11:31 AM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 8 12:32 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 8 1:32 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -135 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 8 3:33 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -145 · New Orleans Saints +120 |
| Oct 8 4:30 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 9 12:48 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 9 6:00 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -145 · New Orleans Saints +120 |
| Oct 9 8:30 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -145 · New Orleans Saints +120 |
| Oct 9 11:31 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 9 1:01 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -145 · New Orleans Saints +120 |
| Oct 9 2:01 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -145 · New Orleans Saints +120 |
| Oct 9 4:02 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -145 · New Orleans Saints +120 |
| Oct 10 5:00 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -145 · New Orleans Saints +120 |
| Oct 10 11:01 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 10 5:39 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -135 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 10 7:09 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 10 8:39 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 10 9:09 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-118) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 10 11:09 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -135 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 11 6:30 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 11 7:11 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 41.5 (-105) | Minnesota Vikings -135 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 11 7:41 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -135 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 11 7:52 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -135 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 11 10:31 AM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · New Orleans Saints +110 |
| Oct 11 10:41 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 11 11:01 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -135 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 11 11:11 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 42 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -135 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 11 11:21 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 42 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 11 11:32 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
| Oct 11 11:52 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -145 · New Orleans Saints +120 |
| CLOSEOct 11 12:53 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · New Orleans Saints +115 |
The read
This comes down to the best unit on the field against the worst one. Brian Flores is blitzing about 70% of the time, and his defense leads the league in pressure, holds teams to 22.6% on third down and has become close to impossible to score a touchdown on in the red zone. Now it gets a Saints offense that can't run the ball: 2.5 and 2.6 yards per carry in two of its four games, with Etienne on IR and Kamara banged up. Tyler Shough has already thrown more than anyone in the league and taken 73 pressures, and he's never seen a blitz team like this. Shough has made some throws against the blitz, but over four quarters he'll put the ball on the ground or get stuck in third-and-long more often than New Orleans can survive.
On the other side, the Saints just gave up 205 rushing yards to Atlanta, and their linebacker Kaden Elliss is out again. That suits how Kevin O'Connell wants to play: feed Aaron Jones, run the gap schemes that worked late against Miami, keep the ball for 35-plus minutes and keep Olave on the sideline. Minnesota's offense won't win any beauty contests, but it doesn't turn the ball over, with two giveaways all season. Then there's the third phase. Will Reichard has made 31 straight field goals, Myles Price is flipping the field on returns, and the Saints' kicker has already missed from 50-plus.
A low-scoring game that comes down to field position and field goals is exactly the game the Vikings have been winning all year. The worry is a reshuffled left side of the line against Chase Young, and that's real. But this defense and kicker have been good enough to win close games with two different quarterbacks, and I'll back them to do it once more before the bye.
Injuries noted
Minnesota Vikings: Jamal Adams (IR) — ir; Tyler Batty (IR) — The Vikings placed Batty (knee) on injured reserve Sunday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Michael Jurgens (Questionable) — The Vikings activated Jurgens (elbow) from injured reserve Saturday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.; Ben Yurosek (Questionable) — The Vikings activated Yurosek (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.; Nick Samac (IR) — The Vikings placed Samac (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.; Jordan Mason (IR) — ir; Brian O'Neill (Questionable) — O'Neill (knee) is questionable against the Saints on Sunday.; Justin Jefferson (Questionable) — Jefferson (ankle) will go through a pregame workout before the Vikings make a decision on his availability for Sunday's contest at New Orleans, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Charles Demmings (Out) — Demmings (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Saints.; Josh Oliver (IR) — The Vikings placed Oliver (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.; Donovan Jackson (IR) — Jackson (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Vikings on Tuesday.; Christian Darrisaw (Out) — Darrisaw (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Saints.; Jordan Addison (Questionable) — Addison (hamstring) will work out pregame before the Vikings make a call on his availability for Sunday's contest in New Orleans, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
New Orleans Saints: Mason Tipton (PUP-R) — Tipton (leg) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Saints on Sunday.; Nick Saldiveri (PUP-R) — New Orleans placed Saldiveri (knee) on its reserve/physically unable to perform list Tuesday.; Bryan Bresee (IR) — ir; Dillon Radunz (IR) — ir; Jordyn Tyson (IR); Ty Chandler (IR) — The Saints placed Chandler (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Jaylan Ford (Questionable) — The Saints activated Ford (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday.; Alvin Kamara (Questionable) — Kamara (back) is expected to play in Sunday's contest against the Vikings, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; David Long Jr. (IR) — The Saints placed Long (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; Moliki Matavao (IR) — The Saints placed Matavao (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Lorenzo Styles Jr. (Questionable); Rejzohn Wright (IR) — Wright (hip) was put on injured reserve by the Saints on Monday.; Zach Wood (IR) — The Saints placed Wood (calf) on injured reserve Friday.; Kelvin Banks Jr. (IR) — Banks (ankle) underwent surgery this week, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.; Travis Etienne Jr. (IR) — The Saints are placing Etienne (hamstring) on injured reserve, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.; Barion Brown (Questionable) — Brown (thigh) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Vikings, Emily Leiker of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.; Anfernee Jennings (Out) — Jennings (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Vikings, Emily Leiker of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.; Julian Blackmon (Questionable) — Blackmon (shoulder) is listed as questionable against the Vikings on Sunday, Emily Leiker of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.; Kaden Elliss (Out) — Elliss (calf) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Vikings, Emily Leiker of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.; Brock Rechsteiner (Reserve-Sus) — The Saints waived Rechsteiner (suspension) on Sunday, Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Jeremiah Wright (Out) — Wright (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Vikings, Emily Leiker of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.; Christen Miller (Questionable) — questionable; Nathan Shepherd (Questionable) — Shepherd (illness) is now questionable for Sunday's game against the Vikings.; Vernon Broughton (Questionable) — questionable
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO
6.68 Y/AThrough 4 games in 2026, Tyler Shough threw for 1203 passing yards, completed 67.2% of his passes and averaged 6.68 yards per attempt. Last season over 11 games he threw for 2384 yards, completed 67.6% and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt, 10-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
Kyler Murray is the projected starting quarterback for MIN
6.1 Y/AThrough 3 games in 2026, Kyler Murray threw for 433 passing yards, completed 63.4% of his passes and averaged 6.1 yards per attempt. Last season over 5 games he threw for 962 yards, completed 68.3% and averaged 5.97 yards per attempt, 6-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.
TRENCHES
MIN: 94.5 rushing yards allowed per game to NO's 147.8
53.3 YPGMIN is at 94.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 4 games; NO is at 147.8 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 10.
PASS RUSH
MIN: 4 sacks recorded per game to NO's 2
2 SACKSMinnesota is averaging 4 sacks a game through four games, double New Orleans at 2. That pass rush lines up with Minnesota's strong third-down and red-zone numbers on the same matchup, which suggests the pressure is doing real work. Four games is still a small sample, and sack totals depend on the lines faced. In the Superdome, Minnesota's rush is the side most likely to shape drives.
PACE & SCRIPT
MIN: 12.8 points allowed per game to NO's 32
19.3 PPGMinnesota's defense is allowing 12.8 points over four games, well under its 19.6 last season. New Orleans is giving up 32, up from 22.5. The Saints throw a lot, which can mean shootouts, and turnovers have hurt them. Both numbers are four games deep and likely to move toward last season, but the gap points to Minnesota controlling how this game gets played.
NO: 72.8 offensive plays per game to MIN's 59.8
13 PLAYSMIN is at 59.8 offensive plays per game over 4 games; NO is at 72.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season MIN was at 56.1 over 17 games and NO at 63.2 over 17 games.
NO: 26.3 points per game to MIN's 21.5
4.8 PPGMIN is at 21.5 points per game over 4 games; NO is at 26.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season MIN was at 20.2 over 17 games and NO at 18 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
MIN: 1.75 takeaways per game to NO's 0.75
1 TOMIN is at 1.75 takeaways per game over 4 games; NO is at 0.75 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 10.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
NO: 5.03 yards per play to MIN's 4.4
0.63 Y/PNew Orleans is moving the ball at almost exactly its pace from last season, 5.05 then and 5.03 now, so that side looks stable. The gap comes from Minnesota dropping to 4.4 from 4.82 over 4 games, with Kyler Murray's longest gain last time a 27-yarder to Jordan Addison. Both offenses had 3 plays of 20 or more yards in their last game, so this projects as a grind where Minnesota needs its efficiency to bounce back toward last season's level.
RED ZONE
MIN: 18.2% red-zone scoring allowed to NO's 66.7%
48.5 PPOpponents have scored on only 18.2% of red-zone trips against Minnesota over four games, compared with 66.7% against New Orleans. Red-zone rates rest on a small number of trips, so four games can swing them hard, and 18.2% is very likely to climb. New Orleans at 66.7% looks more like a real weakness. Bettors thinking about totals should expect Minnesota's stinginess near the goal line to loosen some.
NO: 80% red-zone scoring rate to MIN's 50%
30 PPMIN is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; NO is at 80% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season MIN was at 56.9% over 17 games and NO at 44.4% over 17 games.
NO: 3.75 red-zone trips per game to MIN's 2
1.75 TRIPSMIN is at 2 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; NO is at 3.75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season MIN was at 3 over 17 games and NO at 2.65 over 17 games.
MISMATCH
MIN: 12.8 points allowed a game to NO's 32
12.8 VS 32Minnesota has allowed 12.8 points a game through 4 games, while New Orleans has given up 32. Both are big moves from last season, when the Vikings allowed 19.6 and the Saints 22.5, so four games are stretching each side toward an extreme. Expect both to drift back toward those numbers. The gap is still wide enough that New Orleans has to score against a defense playing far above its usual level while hoping its own defense stops leaking.
COVERAGE
MIN: 22.6% third downs allowed to NO's 47.6%
25 PPMinnesota lets opponents convert just 22.6% of third downs over four games, while New Orleans allows 47.6%, which means one defense gets off the field and the other keeps drives alive. The sheet does not list the offenses faced, so some of that gap could be schedule. A rate this low usually rises over a full season. Even with some pullback, the difference matters for drive length and possession count in this matchup.
MIN: 4.93 yards per play allowed to NO's 5.9
0.97 Y/PMIN is at 4.93 yards per play allowed over 4 games; NO is at 5.9 over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 10.
REPLACEMENT
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB) is on injured reserve for NO
IRNew Orleans running back Travis Etienne Jr. went on injured reserve with a hamstring injury on Oct 1, so he will miss the Minnesota game. That is a multi-week absence for a back with a starting name. Saints rushing props should be read through whoever has taken his carries since he went down.
Jordyn Tyson (WR) is on injured reserve for NO
IRSaints receiver Jordyn Tyson is on injured reserve as of Oct 5, so he is out against Minnesota. No injury is listed. His absence puts more of the New Orleans passing game on the receivers still active.
Josh Oliver (TE) is on injured reserve for MIN
IRMinnesota tight end Josh Oliver went on injured reserve with a biceps injury on Sep 30, so he is out at New Orleans. He has been sidelined for over a week already, and the Vikings have been playing without him. The other Minnesota tight ends absorb his blocking and receiving snaps.
Donovan Jackson (G) is on injured reserve for MIN
IRVikings guard Donovan Jackson was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury on Oct 7, so he misses the trip to New Orleans. Losing a starting-caliber guard means a backup lines up inside. That can show up in the Minnesota run game and in pressure up the middle.
PRACTICE REPORT
Anfernee Jennings
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Charles Demmings
OutHamstring · Limited practice · Out
Jeremiah Wright
OutConcussion · Did not practice · Out
Kaden Elliss
OutCalf · Did not practice · Out
Christian Darrisaw
OutConcussion · Did not practice · Out
Alvin Kamara
QuestionableBack · Limited practice · Questionable
Michael Jurgens
QuestionableElbow · Full practice · Questionable
Barion Brown
QuestionableThigh · Full practice · Questionable
Brian O'Neill
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
Ben Yurosek
QuestionableAnkle · Full practice · Questionable
Lorenzo Styles Jr.
QuestionableCalf · Full practice · Questionable
Justin Jefferson
QuestionableAnkle · Limited practice · Questionable
Jordan Addison
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Christen Miller
QuestionableIllness · Did not practice · Questionable
Julian Blackmon
QuestionableShoulder · Limited practice · Questionable
Jaylan Ford
QuestionableAnkle · Full practice · Questionable
Harrison Smith
LPLimited practice
Aaron Jones Sr.
LPLimited practice
Jayden Price
FPFull practice
Mike Reid
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Davon Godchaux
FPFull practice
Carl Granderson
FPFull practice
Noah Fant
FPFull practice
Brett Thorson
FPFull practice
Tyler Shough
FPFull practice
Chris Olave
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
MIN (4-0) at NO (1-3)
-58 PT GAPMinnesota is 4-0 at +35 and 2-0 on the road, so the unbeaten start comes with a real margin. New Orleans is 1-3 at -23, has lost 2 straight and is 0-2 at home. Every split here leans the same way. A +35 margin over four games points to a good team winning some close ones, so the Vikings' form looks real even if 4-0 slightly overstates the gap.
MIN: 100% fourth-down conversion rate to NO's 77.8%
22.2 PPMIN is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 4 games; NO is at 77.8% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season MIN was at 62.5% over 17 games and NO at 41.2% over 17 games.
STREAK
MIN has won 4 straight
W4Minnesota is 4-0 and has not lost yet. The sheet does not show who those wins came against, so the strength of the run is unknown. Four games is early, and unbeaten teams often get priced up as the public piles on. On the road at New Orleans, check whether the number asks Minnesota to win by more than their form supports.
AFTER GARY
MIN -134 → -134
NO MOVEGary's number was -134; the same book now shows -134.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 8, 2026 at 4:52 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKKYLER MURRAYPASSING TDS UNDER 1.5
I'm taking Kyler Murray under 1.5 passing touchdowns at -160. That's a steep price, and I'll pay it.
Minnesota's offense has gone 12 straight quarters without a touchdown of any kind. Murray has one touchdown pass in three appearances for this team. Inside the 20 he has thrown six passes this season and scored on none of them, and the Vikings settled for three red zone field goals against Miami last week.
The game plan matters more than the slump. Kevin O'Connell has openly built this team around running the ball, protecting it and leaning on Will Reichard. This week he gets the softest run defense he has seen. The Saints just gave up 205 rushing yards and five rushing scores to Atlanta, and linebacker Kaden Elliss is out again. When Minnesota gets close, Aaron Jones and the counter and power runs that worked late against Miami will be the first call.
The passing side has its own problems:
- Ryan Van Demark and Joe Huber are a patched left side, and they face Chase Young. - Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison both have to prove themselves in pregame warmups. - Murray did not attempt a single deep throw last week.
Two touchdown passes needs a lot to break right.
The case against me is real. New Orleans has allowed seven touchdown passes in four games and gives up 32 points a game. If Tyler Shough throws 45 times and this turns into a shootout, Minnesota has to throw back. A healthy Jefferson in his hometown would also change the red zone picture. Still, Murray hasn't thrown two touchdowns in a game for Minnesota, and this offense's best path today runs on the ground.
- GARY'S PICKJUSTIN JEFFERSONRECEPTIONS UNDER 6.5
Justin Jefferson under 6.5 receptions at -132.
He sprained his ankle six snaps into the Tampa game and sat out against Miami. He will test it in pregame warmups before Minnesota decides whether he plays. If he goes, he goes on a sore ankle, in an offense that has thrown less than its game situations call for all season.
Even when healthy, Jefferson's usual game sits around four catches. He averaged that across ten games last year and again across three games this year. The eight-catch opener against Green Bay is the outlier.
The matchup points the same way. The Saints defense just got run over, so Minnesota has every reason to keep the ball on the ground. When Murray does throw, his comfortable read has been T.J. Hockenson, who caught all thirteen of his targets last week. Seven catches would take heavy volume and a full workload from a receiver coming off a missed game.
The strongest argument against me is the setting. This is Jefferson's homecoming at the Superdome, and he said he is fiending to play. Addison is also questionable, and New Orleans has given up plenty to wide receivers. If Addison sits and the Saints jump ahead, the targets could funnel to Jefferson. I don't see Minnesota playing from behind against this defense, so I'll take the under.
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