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NFL · Sun, Sep 20 · 1:00 PM

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

O/U 41.5 · SPREAD New Orleans Saints -6.5 · M&T Bank Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Saints +8.5
NFL@ Ravens· -115

Saints
+8.5

-115 · CASHED · NO 24 · BAL 17

Ravens

The pick & result

Published pick
New Orleans Saints +8.5 -115
Published odds
-115
Result
Won
Final score
24-17

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 57 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 14 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 20 12:55 PM
Move
SPREADBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)Price
TOTAL47.5 (-112)45 (-110)−2½
MONEYLINEBaltimore Ravens -450Baltimore Ravens -400+50
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 14 6:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)47.5 (-112)Baltimore Ravens -450 · New Orleans Saints +340
Sep 14 8:01 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)47.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 14 10:01 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)47.5 (-105)Baltimore Ravens -450 · New Orleans Saints +340
Sep 14 11:02 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)47.5 (-105)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 14 11:32 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)47.5 (-105)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 14 2:03 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)47 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 14 5:03 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)47 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 14 9:18 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)47 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 15 7:30 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)47 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -450 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 15 9:31 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)47 (-112)Baltimore Ravens -450 · New Orleans Saints +340
Sep 15 4:01 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)47 (-112)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 15 5:01 PMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-118)47 (-105)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 15 7:01 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)47 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 15 9:02 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)47 (-120)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 15 10:02 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)47.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 15 11:02 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-110)47.5 (-105)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +310
Sep 16 6:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-110)47.5 (-105)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 16 12:31 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)46.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 16 2:31 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)46.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 16 5:18 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)46.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +310
Sep 16 6:37 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-110)46.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -375 · New Orleans Saints +310
Sep 16 7:37 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-110)46.5 (-112)Baltimore Ravens -375 · New Orleans Saints +310
Sep 16 8:37 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-110)46.5 (-112)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 16 11:08 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-110)46.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 17 12:08 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)46.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 17 2:02 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)46 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 17 4:32 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)46 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 17 5:02 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)46.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +310
Sep 17 5:15 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-110)46 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -375 · New Orleans Saints +310
Sep 17 8:05 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)46 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 17 11:46 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)46 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 18 1:02 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)46 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 18 3:03 PMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-118)46 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 18 4:04 PMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-118)46 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 18 8:07 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-108)46.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 18 11:02 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)46 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 19 5:01 AMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-118)46 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 19 7:30 AMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-110)46 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 19 9:31 AMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-112)46 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 19 5:10 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)46.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 19 8:56 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 19 9:26 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 19 10:27 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 19 10:57 PMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-118)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 20 6:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-112)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 20 7:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-110)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 20 8:19 AMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-112)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 20 8:51 AMBaltimore Ravens -8 (-110)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 20 10:13 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 20 10:51 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 20 11:22 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-102)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 20 11:33 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 20 11:53 AMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)45 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +333
Sep 20 12:03 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-102)45 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 20 12:14 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-102)45 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -425 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 20 12:25 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)45 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
Sep 20 12:45 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-102)45 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +320
CLOSESep 20 12:55 PMBaltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)45 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -400 · New Orleans Saints +310

The read

Baltimore opens its home schedule after an emphatic win at Indianapolis. New Orleans arrives for another road game after taking Detroit to overtime, with both teams coming off seven days’ rest.

The biggest adjustment is Baltimore’s receiving personnel. Zay Flowers is a FRESH absence after supplying 150 receiving yards in the opener; Ja’Kobi Lane is also newly on injured reserve. That matters when assessing how readily Baltimore can build another substantial lead. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry remain a formidable foundation, but reproducing the passing production now requires more from Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews. Baltimore scored 10 second-half points after the receiver injuries last week. Game situation contributed, so that is no scoring ceiling, but the full-game offensive explosion came with personnel unavailable today.

New Orleans has a credible way to stay within this spread. Tyler Shough’s connection with Chris Olave extends beyond the Detroit comeback: they combined for 660 yards and six touchdowns across eight games last season. Olave, Devaughn Vele and Juwan Johnson give Shough multiple receiving options, while Alvin Kamara returns to join Travis Etienne Jr. I’m treating the questionable players as full-strength participants. The Saints’ recovery against Detroit showed an ability to sustain scoring drives after falling behind—a meaningful consideration when taking +8.5.

The danger is another damaging start. Shough took five sacks and committed three turnovers against Detroit, while Baltimore generated nine quarterback hits against Indianapolis. Henry’s 144 rushing yards also present an uncomfortable matchup for a Saints defense that allowed 165 rushing yards. Those are legitimate reasons Baltimore could pull away, and they keep my confidence measured.

I’m backing New Orleans’ receiving continuity and ability to respond against a Baltimore offense adjusting to fresh losses. At +8.5 (-115), the Saints can lose a competitive game and still cash. Their protection and turnover risks make that cushion more attractive to me than the +330 moneyline.

Injuries noted

New Orleans Saints: Mason Tipton (PUP-R) — Tipton (leg) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Saints on Sunday.; Nick Saldiveri (PUP-R) — Knee; Bryan Bresee (IR) — Knee - ACL; Cameron Jordan (Questionable) — Jordan (hamstring) was a limited participant in practice Thursday.; Dillon Radunz (IR) — ir; Jordyn Tyson (IR-R) — Tyson (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by New Orleans on Sunday.; Ty Chandler (IR) — The Saints placed Chandler (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Oscar Delp (Questionable) — Delp (hamstring) was a limited participant in practice for the second straight day Thursday.; Jaylan Ford (IR-R) — Ford (undisclosed) was placed on New Orleans' injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; Alvin Kamara (Questionable) — questionable; David Long Jr. (IR) — The Saints placed Long (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; Moliki Matavao (IR) — The Saints placed Matavao (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Lorenzo Styles Jr. (IR) — ir; Rejzohn Wright (IR) — Wright (hip) was put on injured reserve by the Saints on Monday.; Audric Estime (IR) — The Saints placed Estime (thigh) on injured reserve Saturday, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports.; Khristian Boyd (Inactive) — inactive; Mason Murphy (Inactive) — inactive; John Ridgeway III (Inactive) — inactive; Zach Wilson (Inactive) — Wilson (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday's game against the Lions.; Juwan Johnson (Questionable) — Johnson (illness) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice.; Isaiah Stalbird (Doubtful) — doubtful; Zach Wood (IR) — The Saints placed Wood (calf) on injured reserve Friday.; Chris Olave (Questionable) — Olave (hamstring), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens, is on track to play, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Chase Young (Questionable) — Young (calf), who is listed questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens, is expected to play, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Christen Miller (Questionable) — Miller (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game versus Baltimore.

Baltimore Ravens: Teddye Buchanan (Out) — Buchanan (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints.; Jahquez Robinson (IR) — Robinson (undisclosed) reverted to the Ravens' injured reserve list Wednesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Skylar Thompson (IR) — ir; Bilhal Kone (IR-R) — ir; Nnamdi Madubuike (Out) — Madubuike (neck) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Saints.; Danny Pinter (IR) — Pinter (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Wednesday, Clifton Brown of the team's official website reports.; Adam Randall (IR-R) — Randall (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Sunday with a designation to return, Ryan Mink of the team's official website reports.; Devontez Walker (Questionable) — questionable; Joe Fagnano (Inactive) — Fagnano (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's matchup with the Colts.; Emery Jones Jr. (Inactive) — inactive; Chandler Rivers (Inactive) — inactive; Elijah Sarratt (Inactive) — Sarratt (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Colts.; T.J. Tampa (IR) — The Ravens placed Tampa (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Zay Flowers (Out) — Flowers (hamstring) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Saints.; Ja'Kobi Lane (IR) — Coach Jesse Minter said Lane underwent wrist surgery Wednesday, and the Ravens placed the rookie wide receiver on injured reserve, Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun reports.; Trey Hendrickson (Questionable) — Hendrickson (finger) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports.; Keondre Jackson (Questionable) — questionable; John Simpson (Questionable) — Simpson (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints.; Ronnie Stanley (Questionable) — Stanley (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Lamar Jackson is the projected starting quarterback for BAL

    12.96 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Lamar Jackson threw for 324 passing yards, completed 68% of his passes and averaged 12.96 yards per attempt. His 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

  • Tyler Shough is the projected starting quarterback for NO

    7.32 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Tyler Shough threw for 410 passing yards, completed 62.5% of his passes and averaged 7.32 yards per attempt. His 3-2 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

TRENCHES

  • BAL's front holds runners to 63 fewer yards per game

    63 YPG

    NO is at 165 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; BAL is at 102 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

PASS RUSH

  • BAL's rush gets home 1 more time per game

    1 SACKS

    NO is at 1 sacks recorded per game over 1 game; BAL is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • NO runs +22 more plays per game

    22 PLAYS

    NO is at 86 offensive plays per game over 1 game; BAL is at 64 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • BAL is scoring +11 points per game

    11 PPG

    NO is at 30 points per game over 1 game; BAL is at 41 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • BAL's defense gives up 8 fewer points per game

    8 PPG

    NO is at 31 points allowed per game over 1 game; BAL is at 23 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • BAL holds the ball 3:45 longer per game

    3:45 TOP

    NO is at 31:35 time of possession per game over 1 game; BAL is at 35:20 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

TURNOVERS

  • BAL's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game

    1 TO

    NO is at 1 takeaways per game over 1 game; BAL is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • BAL owns a +2.4 yards-per-play gap

    2.4 Y/P

    NO is at 5.5 yards per play over 1 game; BAL is at 7.9 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

RED ZONE

  • NO allows a red-zone scoring rate 20 percentage points lower

    20 PP

    NO is at 80% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; BAL is at 100% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

MISMATCH

  • BAL's ground game against NO's — 202 rush yards a game to 91

    202 VS 91

    BAL averaged 202 rush yards per game to NO’s 91 over 1-game samples. The ground game is the supplied separation, though no NO rush-defense data identifies how it can be stopped.

COVERAGE

  • BAL's secondary gives up 55 fewer passing yards per game

    55 YPG

    NO is at 204 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; BAL is at 149 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

  • BAL allows a third-down conversion rate 8.5 percentage points lower

    8.5 PP

    NO is at 38.5% third downs allowed over 1 game; BAL is at 30% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

REPLACEMENT

  • Zach Wilson (QB) is inactive for NO

    INACTIVE

    Wilson (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Saints' emergency third quarterback against the Ravens on Sunday. Reported Sep 20.

  • Alvin Kamara (RB) is questionable for NO

    QUESTIONABLE

    questionable Reported Sep 15.

  • Chris Olave (WR) is questionable for NO

    QUESTIONABLE

    Olave (hamstring), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens, is on track to play, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Sep 20.

  • Devontez Walker (WR) is questionable for BAL

    QUESTIONABLE

    questionable Reported Sep 15.

SITUATIONAL

  • NO's fourth-down conversion rate is 100 percentage points higher

    100 PP

    NO is at 100% fourth-down conversion rate over 1 game; BAL is at 0% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • NO's passing game is +74 yards per game

    74 YPG

    NO is at 378 team passing yards per game over 1 game; BAL is at 304 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • NO gives away 33 fewer penalty yards per game

    33 YDS

    NO is at 53 penalty yards per game over 1 game; BAL is at 86 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • NO's third-down conversion rate is 13.7 percentage points higher

    13.7 PP

    NO is at 47.1% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; BAL is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • NO moves the chains 6 more times per game

    6 FD

    NO is at 29 first downs per game over 1 game; BAL is at 23 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • NO goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down

    1 ATT/G

    NO is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 1 game; BAL is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • NO (0-1) at BAL (1-0)

    +19 PT GAP

    NO is 0-1, -1 points on the year, has lost 1 straight this season. BAL is 1-0, +18 points on the year, has won 1 straight this season. NO is 0-1 on the road; BAL is 0-0 at home.

AFTER GARY

  • NO +8.5 → +8.5

    GARY +1.06PP

    FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 17, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

3
  • GARY'S PICK
    TRAVIS ETIENNE JR.RECEIVING YARDS UNDER 56.5
    NFLNew Orleans Saints· -115

    Travis Etienne Jr.
    Receiving Yards under 56.5

    -115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 6

    New Orleans Saints

    I’m taking under 56.5 receiving yards at -115. Etienne caught seven passes on nine targets in the opener, but they produced only 32 yards despite New Orleans running 86 offensive plays and spending much of the game chasing a 21-point deficit.

    He averaged 21.2 receiving yards over his final 10 games of 2025 and exceeded 56.5 only once. Alvin Kamara’s expected return also creates competition for backfield routes and checkdowns.

    The clearest danger is game script: Baltimore is favored by 8.5, and another large deficit could keep Etienne involved as a receiver just as he was in Detroit.

  • GARY'S PICK
    DERRICK HENRYRUSHING YARDS OVER 94.5
    NFLBaltimore Ravens· -113

    Derrick Henry
    Rushing Yards over 94.5

    -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 68

    Baltimore Ravens

    I’m taking over 94.5 rushing yards at -113. Henry opened with 144 yards on 24 carries, and he has cleared this number in six of his last 10 regular-season games.

    Baltimore ran for 202 yards in Declan Doyle’s debut, while New Orleans surrendered 165 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to Detroit. An 8.5-point home favorite also gives Henry a favorable path to another heavy second-half workload.

    The strongest concern is the limited 2026 sample: each team has played once, and Henry averaged only 19.8 carries across his final 10 games of 2025, clearing 20.5 attempts only three times.

  • THE LONG SHOT
    LAMAR JACKSONANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
    NFLBaltimore Ravens· +220

    Lamar Jackson
    Anytime TD over 0.5

    +220 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

    Baltimore Ravens

    I’m taking Jackson to score a touchdown at +220. He ran seven times for 40 yards and a score in the opener, and New Orleans allowed Detroit to score twice on the ground.

    Baltimore’s offense generated 506 yards and reached scoring position repeatedly, giving Jackson several potential paths through designed runs, scrambles and goal-line keepers. The price is the appeal.

    The strongest contrary evidence is workload: Jackson exceeded 8.5 rushing attempts only once in his last 10 games of 2025, and Derrick Henry commands most of Baltimore’s goal-line carries after scoring three times last week.

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