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NFL · Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

O/U 61.5 · SPREAD Detroit Lions -1.5 · Ford Field

GARY'S PICK
Saints +6.5
NFL@ Lions· +100

Saints
+6.5

+100 · CASHED · NO 30 · DET 31

Lions

The pick & result

Published pick
New Orleans Saints +6.5 +100
Published odds
+100
Result
Won
Final score
30-31

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 21 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 9 10:49 AM
Close
Sep 13 12:48 PM
Move
SPREADDetroit Lions -7 (-110)Detroit Lions -7 (-105)Price
TOTAL50 (-110)50 (-110)Holds
MONEYLINEDetroit Lions -330Detroit Lions -330Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 9 10:49 AMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)50 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 9 2:44 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-115)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 9 5:20 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)50 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 9 5:43 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-115)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 9 6:16 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)50 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 10 4:03 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-105)50 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 10 5:03 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-105)50 (-110)Detroit Lions -320 · New Orleans Saints +250
Sep 10 9:09 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-105)50 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 10 9:40 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)50 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 11 5:03 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-115)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 11 6:03 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 11 7:03 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-115)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 11 8:21 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 11 9:22 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-115)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 11 11:23 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 12 12:23 AMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-115)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 12 5:01 AMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)50 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 13 10:14 AMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
Sep 13 11:26 AMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -340 · New Orleans Saints +265
Sep 13 12:17 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)49.5 (-115)Detroit Lions -340 · New Orleans Saints +265
Sep 13 12:27 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-110)50 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260
CLOSESep 13 12:48 PMDetroit Lions -7 (-105)50 (-110)Detroit Lions -330 · New Orleans Saints +260

The read

The season opens Sunday afternoon at Ford Field, with Detroit hosting New Orleans and both teams starting fresh.

New Orleans’ defense is the foundation of this ticket. Its improvement late last season went beyond winning games: opponent passer rating fell from 107.2 over Weeks 1–9 to 74.7 over Weeks 10–18, when the defense also ranked in the top 10 in DVOA. Carl Granderson’s pass-rush win rate improved from 8.0% in the first half to 12.3% in the second. That gives the Saints a concrete way to challenge Detroit’s offense: disrupt its protection and prevent comfortable passing possessions from becoming repeated explosive gains. Detroit ranked 31st in pass-block win rate last season. Its reshuffled line could improve that performance, but Granderson presents a credible opening test.

The other part of the bet is Shough sustaining enough offense to keep New Orleans competitive through the fourth quarter. His nine-start sample—69.2% completions and 7.6 yards per attempt—is more relevant to this matchup than the Saints’ full-season offensive averages across different quarterbacks. Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson give him established targets where his strongest passing work came last season, over the middle. Travis Etienne Jr. adds another avenue for production, although his arrival alone does not establish that the Saints have fixed their running game. I expect New Orleans to put together enough productive possessions that Detroit cannot create separation solely by controlling the ball.

Detroit’s strongest counterargument is substantial: Goff threw 34 touchdowns against eight interceptions last season, and the offense generated explosive plays on 10.5% of its snaps. If the protection holds and Gibbs keeps Detroit ahead of the chains, the Lions have a clear covering path. That is why I prefer the points to the Saints moneyline. My judgment is that New Orleans’ defensive improvement and Shough’s starter-specific efficiency translate well enough to this matchup to make +6.5 at even money the better ticket. The Saints can stay competitive without needing to match Detroit’s offensive ceiling.

Injuries noted

New Orleans Saints: Mason Tipton (PUP-R) — Tipton (leg) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Saints on Sunday.; Nick Saldiveri (PUP-R) — Knee; Bryan Bresee (IR) — Knee - ACL; Cameron Jordan (Out) — Coach Kellen Moore said Wednesday that Jordan (hamstring) will not play Sunday against the Lions, Katherine Terrell of ESPN.com reports.; Dillon Radunz (IR) — ir; Jordyn Tyson (IR-R) — Tyson (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by New Orleans on Sunday.; Ty Chandler (IR) — The Saints placed Chandler (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Oscar Delp (Out) — Delp (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Lions.; Jaylan Ford (IR-R) — Ford (undisclosed) was placed on New Orleans' injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; Alvin Kamara (Questionable) — Kamara (knee), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game in Detroit, isn't in line to play in the season opener and is instead slated to make his 2026 debut Week 2 at Baltimore, Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football reports.; David Long Jr. (IR) — The Saints placed Long (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday.; Moliki Matavao (IR) — The Saints placed Matavao (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.; Lorenzo Styles Jr. (IR) — ir; Rejzohn Wright (IR) — Wright (hip) was put on injured reserve by the Saints on Monday.; Audric Estime (IR) — The Saints placed Estime (thigh) on injured reserve Saturday, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports.

Detroit Lions: Giovanni Manu (NFI-R) — The Lions moved Manu (knee) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday.; Brian Branch (PUP-R) — The Lions placed Branch (Achilles) on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Kerby Joseph (PUP-R) — The Lions placed Joseph (knee) on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Kendrick Law (IR) — Knee - ACL; Cade Mays (IR-R) — Mays (wrist) is looking to return from injured reserve by mid-October, Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports.; Isiah Pacheco (IR) — Lions GM Brad Holmes said Wednesday that Pacheco (back) doesn't have a clear timetable for return, Colton Pouncy of The Athletic reports.; Payton Turner (IR) — ir; Damone Clark (IR) — Detroit placed Clark (undisclosed) on its injured reserve list Tuesday.; Christian Izien (Questionable) — Izien (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Saints.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • DET's passing game is +33.8 yards per game (2025 season)

    33.8 YPG

    NO is at 219.3 team passing yards per game over 17 games; DET is at 253.1 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

  • Tyler Shough starts at quarterback for NO

    7.29 Y/A

    Tyler Shough averaged 7.29 yards per attempt with a 67.6% completion rate over 11 games, producing 2,384 passing yards and a 10-6 TD-INT line. The supplied facts do not establish what kind of test DET presents.

  • Jared Goff starts at quarterback for DET

    7.9 Y/A

    Jared Goff combined volume and efficiency over 17 games: 4,564 passing yards, 68% completions and 7.9 yards per attempt. His 34-8 TD-INT line also shows substantially more touchdowns than interceptions; no NO defensive facts define the matchup test.

  • DET averages +1.03 yards every time it drops back (2025 season)

    1.03 Y/A

    NO is at 6.06 yards per pass attempt over 17 games; DET is at 7.09 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

TRENCHES

  • DET gets +0.86 more yards a carry (2025 season)

    0.86 Y/C

    NO is at 3.65 yards per rush attempt over 17 games; DET is at 4.52 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

  • DET is +25.8 rush yards per game (2025 season)

    25.8 YPG

    NO is at 94.3 rushing yards per game over 17 games; DET is at 120.1 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • NO @ DET carries a 61.5 market total

    61.5

    NO-DET’s 61.5 total is 14 points above the 47.5 median across 13 games with posted totals, placing it among the slate’s elevated scoring environments. That framing breaks if scoring arrives well below the market’s level.

  • DET is scoring +10.3 points per game (2025 season)

    10.3 PPG

    In the 2025 regular season, DET scored 28.3 points per game over 17 games, 10.3 more than NO’s 18. That gives DET the higher scoring profile entering this comparison, though no 2026 finals yet test whether the gap still describes these clubs.

TURNOVERS

  • DET commits 0.53 fewer turnovers per game (2025 season)

    0.53 TO

    NO is at 1.41 turnovers committed per game over 17 games; DET is at 0.88 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • DET owns a +0.92 yards-per-play gap (2025 season)

    0.92 Y/P

    NO is at 5.05 yards per play over 17 games; DET is at 5.97 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

RED ZONE

  • DET's red-zone scoring rate is 18.1 percentage points higher (2025 season)

    18.1 PP

    NO is at 44.4% red-zone scoring rate over 17 games; DET is at 62.5% over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

  • DET gets inside the 20 1.12 more times per game (2025 season)

    1.12 TRIPS

    NO is at 2.65 red-zone trips per game over 17 games; DET is at 3.76 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

MISMATCH

  • DET's explosiveness against NO's — 5.97 yards a snap to 5.05 (2025 season)

    5.97 VS 5.05

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: yds / play — NO 5.05, DET 5.97, over 17 and 17 game samples from the 2025 regular season.

REPLACEMENT

  • Zach Wilson (QB) is inactive for NO

    INACTIVE

    Zach Wilson is inactive by coach’s decision as New Orleans’ emergency third quarterback against Detroit on Sep. 13. The report does not indicate that he was expected to handle offensive work.

  • Audric Estime (RB) is on injured reserve for NO

    IR

    The Saints placed Estime (thigh) on injured reserve Saturday, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports. Reported Sep 12.

  • Alvin Kamara (RB) is inactive for NO

    INACTIVE

    Kamara (knee) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Lions, Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football reports. Reported Sep 13.

  • Christian Mahogany (G) is questionable for DET

    QUESTIONABLE

    Mahogany (knee) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Saints, Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Oscar Delp

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Cameron Jordan

    Out

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Out

  • Christian Izien

    Questionable

    Groin · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Alvin Kamara

    Questionable

    Knee · Full practice · Questionable

  • Ennis Rakestraw Jr.

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

  • Thomas Harper

    FP

    Full practice

  • Keith Abney II

    FP

    Full practice

  • Mekhi Wingo

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

  • Derrick Moore

    FP

    Full practice

  • Trevor Nowaske

    FP

    Full practice

  • Davon Godchaux

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jimmy Rolder

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • DET's fourth-down conversion rate is 16.9 percentage points higher (2025 season)

    16.9 PP

    NO is at 41.2% fourth-down conversion rate over 17 games; DET is at 58.1% over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

AFTER GARY

  • NO +6.5 → +6.5

    NO MOVE

    FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, betmgm.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

4
  • GARY'S PICK
    JARED GOFFPASSING YARDS OVER 258.5
    NFLDetroit Lions· -113

    Jared Goff
    Passing Yards over 258.5

    -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 206

    Detroit Lions

    Detroit should lean into its passing game early, especially with New Orleans capable of scoring enough to keep the Lions aggressive. Goff cleared this number in seven of his last 10 games, and the Saints will have to respect Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta across the field. I expect enough volume for Goff to get past 258.5 yards.

  • GARY'S PICK
    TRAVIS ETIENNE JR.RUSHING YARDS OVER 55.5
    NFLNew Orleans Saints· -115

    Travis Etienne Jr.
    Rushing Yards over 55.5

    -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 46

    New Orleans Saints

    This is the role New Orleans brought Etienne in to fill. The Saints need to keep Detroit from teeing off on Tyler Shough, and Etienne has averaged 16.3 carries while going over this rushing number in six of his last 10 games. With Alvin Kamara expected to miss the opener, the workload should be there from the start.

  • THE LONG SHOT
    AMON-RA ST. BROWNANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
    NFLDetroit Lions· +105

    Amon-Ra St. Brown
    Anytime TD over 0.5

    +105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

    Detroit Lions

    St. Brown remains Detroit's most dependable option near the goal line and should see plenty of attention from a Saints defense trying to limit explosive plays. That attention can create favorable leverage for him inside the red zone, and the Lions are projected to generate multiple scoring chances at home. Plus money makes this worth taking.

  • THE LONG SHOT
    TRAVIS ETIENNE JR.ANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
    NFLNew Orleans Saints· +108

    Travis Etienne Jr.
    Anytime TD over 0.5

    +108 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

    New Orleans Saints

    Etienne should be the centerpiece of the Saints' offensive plan, with Kamara unavailable and the team emphasizing balance. A heavy touch count gives him multiple paths to the end zone, whether New Orleans finishes a drive on the ground or uses him near the goal line as a receiver. At plus money, I like the opportunity.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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