Miami Dolphins picks

The Patriots come into Hard Rock Stadium on 10 days' rest for a 4:25 division kickoff, with drizzle in the forecast and gusts up to 26 mph. Miami is 1-5, but it would have covered this number in each of its last three games, so laying 7.5 here takes conviction. Mine starts with Drake Maye. Over the last four games, Maye has thrown 12 touchdowns and 2 interceptions at nearly 9 yards per attempt. Miami's pass defense has allowed 77% completions, 8.1 yards per attempt and 14 touchdown passes against 4 picks. The Dolphins have 6 sacks all season and none in four of six games, so expect a clean pocket. Opponents convert 54% of third downs against them and have scored touchdowns on 17 of 25 red-zone trips. The season numbers back the price. New England gains 6.1 yards per play and allows 5.4. Miami gains 5.2 and allows 5.9. The point differentials are +17 and -59. Both teams played the Raiders: the Patriots won 45-17 at home, while Miami lost 27-13 in Las Vegas. The injury report hurts Miami more. Tackle Kadyn Proctor, who has played every snap this season, is out, and Miami's run game leans on its blocking. New England is without A.J. Brown, but Brown has caught just 6 of 16 targets with 3 drops since returning, and the Patriots scored 45 without Brown in Week 5. Center Ben Brown and cornerback Carlton Davis both practiced fully this week. The risks are real. New England is 1-3 on the road, and its biggest road win is 3 points. The Patriots have 14 giveaways in seven games. Ollie Gordon II has 291 rushing yards over the last three games, and Miami can shorten this game on the ground, as it did when it held the ball for 34:36 against the Jets. The wind could also blunt the passing edge. Still, all three of New England's road losses came against winning teams, and Miami's defense has forced only 5 turnovers all year. I'm laying the 7.5, but I wouldn't lay a point more.