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NFL · Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

O/U 34.5 · SPREAD Kansas City Chiefs -13.5 · Hard Rock Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Chiefs -10.5
NFL@ Dolphins· -102

Chiefs
-10.5

-102 · CASHED · KC 24 · MIA 10

Dolphins

The pick & result

Published pick
Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 -102
Published odds
-102
Result
Won
Final score
24-10

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 51 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 21 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 27 10:31 AM
Move
SPREADKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-105)−1
TOTAL45.5 (-108)45.5 (-110)Price
MONEYLINEKansas City Chiefs -650Kansas City Chiefs -550+100
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 21 6:00 AMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 21 8:30 AMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)46 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 21 10:31 AMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-112)45.5 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 21 12:32 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-110)46 (-105)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 21 1:02 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-110)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 21 5:03 PMKansas City Chiefs -11.5 (-110)46 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 21 5:15 PMKansas City Chiefs -12 (-108)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 21 6:05 PMKansas City Chiefs -12 (-108)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -750 · Miami Dolphins +550
Sep 22 9:31 AMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 22 10:32 AMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-110)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -750 · Miami Dolphins +550
Sep 22 4:56 PMKansas City Chiefs -11.5 (-110)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -750 · Miami Dolphins +550
Sep 22 5:57 PMKansas City Chiefs -11.5 (-110)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +550
Sep 22 6:57 PMKansas City Chiefs -11.5 (-110)46.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -750 · Miami Dolphins +550
Sep 22 10:58 PMKansas City Chiefs -11.5 (-110)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -750 · Miami Dolphins +550
Sep 23 6:00 AMKansas City Chiefs -12 (-112)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -750 · Miami Dolphins +550
Sep 23 9:49 AMKansas City Chiefs -11.5 (-110)46.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -750 · Miami Dolphins +550
Sep 23 1:05 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-112)46.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -750 · Miami Dolphins +575
Sep 23 2:05 PMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)46 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 23 3:05 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-108)46.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 23 4:06 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-108)46.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 23 5:06 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-120)46.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 23 6:06 PMKansas City Chiefs -11.5 (-108)46 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 23 11:10 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-110)46 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 24 1:52 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-110)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 24 2:53 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-108)46 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -625 · Miami Dolphins +475
Sep 24 3:23 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-108)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 24 4:23 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-108)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 24 4:53 PMKansas City Chiefs -11 (-110)46 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 24 6:47 PMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)46 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 25 10:31 AMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 25 11:31 AMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -625 · Miami Dolphins +475
Sep 25 4:03 PMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-110)45 (-112)Kansas City Chiefs -625 · Miami Dolphins +475
Sep 25 8:05 PMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -700 · Miami Dolphins +525
Sep 25 9:05 PMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 26 12:07 AMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-108)45.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 26 5:00 AMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-105)45 (-112)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 26 6:00 AMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-108)45 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 26 11:01 AMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-105)45 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +475
Sep 26 1:02 PMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-105)45 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 26 9:05 PMKansas City Chiefs -10.5 (-108)45 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 26 9:35 PMKansas City Chiefs -10 (-110)45 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 26 10:05 PMKansas City Chiefs -10 (-110)45.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -650 · Miami Dolphins +500
Sep 26 11:43 PMKansas City Chiefs -10 (-110)45.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -625 · Miami Dolphins +475
Sep 27 12:44 AMKansas City Chiefs -10 (-110)45.5 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -625 · Miami Dolphins +475
Sep 27 8:30 AMKansas City Chiefs -10 (-108)45.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -600 · Miami Dolphins +450
Sep 27 9:00 AMKansas City Chiefs -10 (-110)45.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -625 · Miami Dolphins +475
Sep 27 9:08 AMKansas City Chiefs -10 (-110)45.5 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -625 · Miami Dolphins +475
Sep 27 9:31 AMKansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-110)45.5 (-108)Kansas City Chiefs -600 · Miami Dolphins +450
Sep 27 10:00 AMKansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-110)45.5 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -600 · Miami Dolphins +425
Sep 27 10:10 AMKansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-108)45.5 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -600 · Miami Dolphins +425
Sep 27 10:21 AMKansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-108)45.5 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -550 · Miami Dolphins +425
CLOSESep 27 10:31 AMKansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-105)45.5 (-110)Kansas City Chiefs -550 · Miami Dolphins +425

The read

Miami has no sacks through two games, while Kansas City has allowed only four on 84 dropbacks. That gives Mahomes and Walker a strong path to sustained drives against a defense allowing 31 points per game.

On the other side, Willis has taken nine sacks, and Miami’s leading receiver Caleb Douglas is out. The risk is a Chiefs defense with several questionable players and a Miami home opener that could stay close.

But Miami has scored 13 points in each game, and I trust Kansas City to create more than a ten-point gap at this price. These are only two-game samples, so this is a measured play.

Injuries noted

Kansas City Chiefs: Omarr Norman-Lott (PUP-R) — Norman-Lott (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Chiefs on Sunday.; Ethan Downs (IR) — Knee - ACL; John Michael Gyllenborg (IR) — Knee; Jeff Caldwell (IR) — Caldwell (knee) reverted to the Chiefs' injured reserve list Tuesday, Charles Goldman of AtoZSports.com reports.; Jimmy Holiday (IR) — Holiday (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Chiefs on Sunday.; Matt Waletzko (IR) — Waletzko (undisclosed) reverted from waivers to Kansas City's injured reserve list Friday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Cooper McDonald (IR) — The Chiefs placed McDonald (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Chris Jones (Questionable) — questionable; Felix Anudike-Uzomah (Questionable) — questionable; L'Jarius Sneed (Questionable) — questionable

Miami Dolphins: Darrell Baker Jr. (PUP-R) — Baker (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Dolphins on Sunday.; Storm Duck (PUP-R) — Duck (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by Miami on Sunday.; Rene Konga (IR) — Undisclosed; Kenneth Grant (IR-R) — ir; Trey Moore (IR-R) — ir; Cole Turner (IR) — Turner (undisclosed) reverted to the Dolphins' injured-reserve list Thursday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Kyle Louis (IR) — The Dolphins placed Louis (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Ronnie Harrison Jr. (IR) — The Dolphins placed Harrison (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Tucker Addington (Questionable) — questionable; Chop Robinson (Questionable) — Robinson (concussion) was a full participant at practice Wednesday, C. Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald reports.; Robert Beal Jr. (Out) — Beal (hamstring) is listed as out for Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Matt McMullen of the Chiefs' official site reports.; Jaylen Wright (Doubtful) — Wright (foot) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice.; Caleb Douglas (Out) — Douglas (ankle) didn't practice Thursday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.; Chris Bell (Questionable) — Bell (knee) said Thursday that he'll be ready to play Sunday against the Chiefs, C. Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald reports.; JuJu Brents (Questionable) — questionable; Ryan Miller (Questionable) — Miller (hip) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Matt McMullen of the Chiefs' official site reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Patrick Mahomes is the projected starting quarterback for KC

    7.65 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Patrick Mahomes threw for 566 passing yards, completed 63.5% of his passes and averaged 7.65 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3587 yards, completed 62.7% and averaged 7.14 yards per attempt, 22-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 5-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

  • Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA

    8.34 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Malik Willis threw for 417 passing yards, completed 58% of his passes and averaged 8.34 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 422 yards, completed 85.7% and averaged 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

TRENCHES

  • KC: 90 rushing yards allowed per game to MIA's 112.5

    22.5 YPG

    KC is at 90 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 112.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

PASS RUSH

  • KC: 2 sacks recorded per game to MIA's 0

    2 SACKS

    Kansas City has produced sacks through 2 games, while Miami has none. A two-game sack total can be shaped by a handful of passing situations, and there is no opponent or pressure context to show whether it will hold. In this matchup, use the difference to assess passing-game disruption and how often each offense may face long downs.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • KC: 32 points per game to MIA's 13

    19 PPG

    Kansas City is scoring far more often through 2 games, while Miami has opened below its 20.4 points per game last season. Kansas City's 32 is also above its 21.3 last-season rate, so both sides have moved in opposite directions early. That gap matters if Miami cannot generate enough offense to keep Kansas City from controlling the game's pace.

  • KC: 72.5 offensive plays per game to MIA's 53

    19.5 PLAYS

    KC is at 72.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; MIA is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season KC was at 62.4 over 17 games and MIA at 55.8 over 17 games.

  • KC: 35:21 time of possession per game to MIA's 27:40

    7:41 TOP

    KC is at 35:21 time of possession per game over 2 games; MIA is at 27:40 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season KC was at 30:09 over 17 games and MIA at 28:57 over 17 games.

  • KC: 20 points allowed per game to MIA's 31

    11 PPG

    KC is at 20 points allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 31 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season KC was at 19.3 over 17 games and MIA at 24.9 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • KC: 1.5 takeaways per game to MIA's 1

    0.5 TO

    KC is at 1.5 takeaways per game over 2 games; MIA is at 1 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • KC: 6.3 yards per play to MIA's 5.15

    1.15 Y/P

    Kansas City is gaining more on each snap, with its big-play output led by Mahomes finding Thornton and Rice downfield last game. The Chiefs are above last season's level through two games, while Miami is below its 17-game mark despite a 77-yard touchdown pass in its last game. Miami's explosive plays keep this from being a simple pace mismatch, but Kansas City has created the steadier early efficiency.

RED ZONE

  • KC: 60% red-zone scoring allowed to MIA's 88.9%

    28.9 PP

    KC is at 60% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; MIA is at 88.9% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

MISMATCH

  • KC: 186 rush yards a game to MIA's 88

    186 VS 88

    Kansas City is running for 186 yards a game through 2 games, while Miami is at 88. Kansas City has surged from 106.6 rushing yards last season, and Miami has dropped from 120.2, though each figure comes from only 2 games. The Chiefs can use the ground game to keep drives moving and shorten Miami's opportunities; Miami needs its own rushing output to avoid a one-sided possession battle.

COVERAGE

  • KC: 4.45 yards per play allowed to MIA's 6.05

    1.6 Y/P

    Kansas City has allowed fewer yards per play than Miami through 2 games, a broad sign that opponents have found less efficiency against the Chiefs. It is only 2 games, with no opponent or game-script context to explain the split. In this matchup, use it to judge whether Miami's offense can maintain efficient drives rather than focus on one stat line.

  • KC: 29.2% third downs allowed to MIA's 50%

    20.8 PP

    Kansas City has allowed fewer third-down conversions than Miami through 2 games, giving the Chiefs an early edge at getting off the field. Third down is volatile in a two-game sample, and the sheet gives no opponent or down-and-distance context. For this matchup, the gap matters when weighing which offense can extend possessions.

  • KC: 162.5 passing yards allowed per game to MIA's 223.5

    61 YPG

    KC is at 162.5 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; MIA is at 223.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

REPLACEMENT

  • Cooper McDonald (LB) is on injured reserve for KC

    IR

    McDonald is on injured reserve after Kansas City placed him there Wednesday with a knee injury. He is unavailable at Miami, and no replacement linebacker is identified on the fact sheet.

  • Kyle Louis (LB) is on injured reserve for MIA

    IR

    Louis is on injured reserve after Miami placed him there Wednesday with a knee injury. He is unavailable against Kansas City, with no replacement linebacker listed on the fact sheet.

  • Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB) is on injured reserve for MIA

    IR

    Harrison is out for the Dolphins after a hamstring injury sent him to injured reserve Saturday. IR removes him from this game against Kansas City, leaving Miami to cover his linebacker role with available depth.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Robert Beal Jr.

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Josh Simmons

    Out

    Back · Did not practice · Out

  • Caleb Douglas

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Jaylen Wright

    Doubtful

    Stinger, Foot · Did not practice · Doubtful

  • Chamarri Conner

    Doubtful

    Knee · Limited practice · Doubtful

  • Ryan Miller

    Questionable

    Hip, Back · Full practice · Questionable

  • JuJu Brents

    Questionable

    Knee · Full practice · Questionable

  • L'Jarius Sneed

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Tucker Addington

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Chris Jones

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Chris Johnson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jadon Canady

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jeffrey Bassa

    FP

    Full practice

  • Mansoor Delane

    FP

    Full practice

  • R Mason Thomas

    FP

    Full practice

  • Dante Trader Jr.

    FP

    Full practice

  • Malik Willis

    FP

    Full practice

  • Chop Robinson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Ashton Gillotte

    FP

    Full practice

  • Seydou Traore

    FP

    Full practice

  • Rashee Rice

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jaden Hicks

    FP

    Full practice

  • Chris Bell

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jack Cochrane

    FP

    Full practice

  • Patrick Mahomes

    FP

    Full practice

  • Felix Anudike-Uzomah

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • KC: 271.5 team passing yards per game to MIA's 183.5

    88 YPG

    Kansas City has produced more through the air, while Miami's passing output is only slightly above its 180.5 mark last season. Kansas City's 271.5 is well above 214.1 last season, though both numbers cover 2 games. The matchup can swing on whether Miami can keep Kansas City from pairing its passing production with its strong rushing output.

  • KC: 24 first downs per game to MIA's 13

    11 FD

    KC is at 24 first downs per game over 2 games; MIA is at 13 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season KC was at 19.8 over 17 games and MIA at 17.1 over 17 games.

  • KC: 80% fourth-down conversion rate to MIA's 33.3%

    46.7 PP

    KC is at 80% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; MIA is at 33.3% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season KC was at 75% over 17 games and MIA at 47.8% over 17 games.

  • KC: 46.7% third-down conversion rate to MIA's 36%

    10.7 PP

    KC is at 46.7% third-down conversion rate over 2 games; MIA is at 36% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season KC was at 37.4% over 17 games and MIA at 34.9% over 17 games.

  • KC (2-0) at MIA (0-2)

    -60 PT GAP

    Kansas City is 2-0 with a +24 point margin, while Miami is 0-2 and -36, a clear separation through two games. The Chiefs have won two straight and the Dolphins have lost two straight, but neither team has a listed result in this venue. Kansas City's early form is the stronger baseline, while Miami's 0-2 start makes any turnaround case depend on more than a home split.

  • KC: 2.5 fourth-down attempts per game to MIA's 1.5

    1 ATT/G

    KC is at 2.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; MIA is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season KC was at 1.88 over 17 games and MIA at 1.35 over 17 games.

AFTER GARY

  • KC -10.5 → -9.5

    NOW +1

    Gary's number was -10.5; the market closed at -9.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    EMMETT JOHNSONRUSHING RECEIVING YARDS UNDER 42.5
    NFLKansas City Chiefs· -114

    Emmett Johnson
    Rushing Receiving Yards under 42.5

    -114 · CASHED · ACTUAL 17

    Kansas City Chiefs

    Emmett Johnson is the second back in this Kansas City offense, and the usage says so plainly: ten carries and four catches over two games, fourteen touches total, roughly five carries and two targets a game. He played fourteen snaps against Denver and twenty five against Indianapolis while Kenneth Walker handled the heavy work. The season average of 51.5 combined yards per game looks like real production until you find the 44 yard catch against the Broncos inside it. Strip that one play out and he has been a short yardage and checkdown piece.

    The line asks him to clear 42.5 combined yards tonight, which is a big ask for a depth back on this touch count. The strongest case against me is Miami's run defense. The Dolphins have given up 207 rushing yards and 115 receiving yards to running backs across two games, and that unit has not generated pressure or negative plays. A lopsided score could also hand Johnson extra fourth quarter carries with the game decided.

    I am treating that as the live risk and keeping the stake modest. Walker is the engine here, Johnson is the change of pace, and at -114 the number sits above what his role has produced.

  • GARY'S PICK
    CHRIS BELLRECEPTIONS UNDER 1.5
    NFLMiami Dolphins· -114

    Chris Bell
    Receptions under 1.5

    -114 · LOST · ACTUAL 4

    Miami Dolphins

    Chris Bell has one catch on three targets across two games, and his slice of Miami's passing work is thin. He is on the injury report with a knee, though he has said he expects to play Sunday. The line sits at 1.5 receptions, so he needs two catches to beat me, and he has never drawn more than two targets in a game this season.

    Kansas City has allowed nineteen catches on thirty three targets to receivers over two games with no touchdowns, so this is not a secondary handing out easy completions underneath. Malik Willis has been pressured on a heavy share of his dropbacks and sacked nine times, which pushes the ball toward De'Von Achane, Malik Washington and the tight ends rather than a rotational rookie wideout. The case against me is Miami's receiver room.

    Caleb Douglas is out with an ankle injury, Bell plays a starter's share of snaps, and the targets have to go somewhere, so concentration around him is possible. I am also aware a blowout in either direction changes how Miami throws late. Bell's role has been real but small, and at -114 I will take the under on a receiver who has caught one ball in two games.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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