Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings

Injuries noted

Miami Dolphins: Darrell Baker Jr. (PUP-R) — Baker (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Dolphins on Sunday.; Storm Duck (PUP-R) — The Dolphins opened Duck's (knee) 21-day practice window Wednesday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.; Rene Konga (IR) — Undisclosed; Kenneth Grant (IR-R) — Head coach Jeff Hafley said Friday that Grant (leg) could begin practicing next week, C. Isaiah Smalls II of the Miami Herald reports.; Trey Moore (IR-R) — ir; Cole Turner (IR) — Turner (undisclosed) reverted to the Dolphins' injured-reserve list Thursday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Kyle Louis (IR) — The Dolphins placed Louis (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Ronnie Harrison Jr. (IR) — The Dolphins placed Harrison (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Tucker Addington (Questionable) — questionable; Robert Beal Jr. (Out) — Beal (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Vikings, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports.; Jaylen Wright (Questionable) — Wright (foot) officially was limited at Wednesday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.; Caleb Douglas (Out) — Douglas (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Vikings, Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.com reports.; Chris Bell (Questionable) — Bell (knee) was a limited participant in Thursday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.; De'Von Achane (IR) — The Dolphins placed Achane (knee) on injured reserve Monday.; Aaron Brewer (Questionable) — questionable

Minnesota Vikings: Jamal Adams (IR) — ir; Tyler Batty (IR) — The Vikings placed Batty (knee) on injured reserve Sunday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Tyreek Chappell (IR) — Undisclosed; Jeshaun Jones (Reserve-Sus) — The NFL suspended Jones three games Tuesday for violating the league's substance-abuse policy, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.; Michael Jurgens (IR-R) — The Vikings placed Jurgens (undisclosed) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday, Rob Kleifield of the team's official site reports.; Taki Taimani (IR) — Undisclosed; Ben Yurosek (IR) — Minnesota placed Yurosek on injured reserve Tuesday due to an undisclosed injury.; Audric Estime (IR) — The Saints placed Estime (thigh) on injured reserve Saturday, Ross Jackson of WWL Louisiana reports.; Nick Samac (IR) — The Vikings placed Samac (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.; Jordan Mason (IR) — ir; Blake Cashman (Questionable) — Cashman (elbow) was limited in Thursday's practice session.; Brett Thorson (Out) — Thorson (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Dolphins.; Justin Jefferson (Out) — Jefferson (ankle) has been already been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, but the Vikings are hopeful that the superstar wide receiver will return for Week 5 against the Saints, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.; Charles Demmings (Out) — Demmings (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Dolphins.; Josh Oliver (IR) — The Vikings placed Oliver (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday, Craig Peters of the team's official site reports.

QUARTERBACK

• Kyler Murray is the projected starting quarterback for MIN

  5.47 Y/A

  Through 2 games in 2026, Kyler Murray threw for 186 passing yards, completed 52.9% of his passes and averaged 5.47 yards per attempt. Last season over 5 games he threw for 962 yards, completed 68.3% and averaged 5.97 yards per attempt, 6-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

• Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA

  7.29 Y/A

  Through 3 games in 2026, Malik Willis threw for 627 passing yards, completed 57% of his passes and averaged 7.29 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 422 yards, completed 85.7% and averaged 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

TRENCHES

• MIN: 85.7 rushing yards allowed per game to MIA's 104.3

  18.7 YPG

  MIA is at 104.3 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; MIN is at 85.7 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

PASS RUSH

• MIN: 4.67 sacks recorded per game to MIA's 0

  4.67 SACKS

  Minnesota averages 4.67 sacks a game, and Miami has not recorded one through 3 games. That is a big split in pressure, though 3 games is a small sample and depends on which offensive lines each team has faced. Miami's quarterback looks likely to face a lot of pressure, while Minnesota's should have clean pockets. That points toward Minnesota's offense finding rhythm and Miami's being forced into quicker throws.

PACE & SCRIPT

• MIN: 13.7 points allowed per game to MIA's 28.7

  15 PPG

  Minnesota allows 13.7 points a game while Miami gives up 28.7 over three games. The Vikings were at 19.6 last season, so this defense is playing above last year's level, and the Dolphins are worse than their 24.9. Minnesota will likely give up a bit more over time, but at home against a Miami team struggling on both sides, the Vikings defense has the edge in setting the tone.

• MIN: 23.7 points per game to MIA's 12

  11.7 PPG

  MIA is at 12 points per game over 3 games; MIN is at 23.7 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season MIA was at 20.4 over 17 games and MIN at 20.2 over 17 games.

• MIA @ MIN carries a 38.5 market total

  38.5

  A 38.5 total is 8 points below the 46.5 median on this slate, which tells you the market sees a slow game with points coming in small pieces. No player, unit or matchup detail is on the sheet to explain it. The expectation cracks if either side hits explosive plays or the game turns into a trading of turnovers. Bettors can watch how the first quarter plays out: a fast start breaks the script the number assumes.

TURNOVERS

• MIN: 2 takeaways per game to MIA's 1

  1 TO

  MIA is at 1 takeaways per game over 3 games; MIN is at 2 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

• MIA: 5.07 yards per play to MIN's 4.3

  0.77 Y/P

  Miami is gaining more per snap than Minnesota over three games each, and both last games ran through the deep pass: Malik Willis hit Chris Bell for 44, while Kyler Murray found Jordan Addison for a 41-yard score. Both teams are below last season's marks, 5.4 for MIA and 4.82 for MIN, so three games may be underselling each offense. With explosive throws driving both sides, the game likely swings on which secondary gives up the chunk play.

RED ZONE

• MIN: 11.1% red-zone scoring allowed to MIA's 78.6%

  67.5 PP

  MIA is at 78.6% red-zone scoring allowed over 3 games; MIN is at 11.1% over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

MISMATCH

• MIN: 13.7 points allowed a game to MIA's 28.7

  13.7 VS 28.7

  The widest gap between these two is points allowed a game: MIA's defense allowed 28.7 points a game over 3 games; MIN's defense allowed 13.7 points a game over 3 games this season. Last season MIA was at 24.9 over 17 games and MIN at 19.6 over 17 games.

COVERAGE

• MIN: 22.7% third downs allowed to MIA's 48.1%

  25.4 PP

  Minnesota allows opponents to convert just 22.7% of third downs, while Miami allows 48.1%. Through 3 games, Minnesota is getting off the field on most money downs, and Miami is letting nearly half of them through. A 22.7% rate is hard to sustain over a full season, so expect some drift upward. For this game, Miami's offense may find long drives tough to put together while Minnesota keeps getting extra chances.

• MIN: 4.77 yards per play allowed to MIA's 6.3

  1.53 Y/P

  MIA is at 6.3 yards per play allowed over 3 games; MIN is at 4.77 over 3 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 3.

REPLACEMENT

• Storm Duck (CB) is pup-r for MIA

  PUP-R

  Duck is coming back from a knee injury, and Miami opened his 21-day practice window Wednesday, which means he can practice but still has to be activated to play. Opening the window does not mean he plays at Minnesota. Wait for news that Miami has activated him before counting him in the Dolphins' secondary.

• De'Von Achane (RB) is on injured reserve for MIA

  IR

  Miami put Achane on injured reserve Monday with a knee injury, so he will not play at Minnesota and is out for several weeks at minimum. He is the lead back, and the sheet does not name who gets his carries. Expect Miami's run game to look different, and price their backup backs off a fresh look at the depth chart.

• Kenneth Grant (DT) is ir-r for MIA

  IR-R

  Grant is on injured reserve with a leg injury but designated to return, and coach Jeff Hafley said Friday he could start practicing next week. That makes him unlikely for the game at Minnesota. Miami's defensive line stays without him for now, so look for his return in the following weeks.

• Josh Oliver (TE) is on injured reserve for MIN

  IR

  Minnesota put Oliver on injured reserve Tuesday with a biceps injury, so he will not play against Miami. He is a tight end the team uses heavily as a blocker, and the sheet does not name his replacement. Expect a little less from the Vikings' heavier run formations with him out.

• Nick Samac (C) is on injured reserve for MIN

  IR

  The Vikings put Samac, a center, on injured reserve Saturday with a knee injury, so he misses the Miami game. Losing a center can hurt the snaps and protection calls up front. The sheet does not say who starts in his place, so check Minnesota's line before betting on their run game or sack totals.

PRACTICE REPORT

• Justin Jefferson

  Out

  Ankle · Did not practice · Out

• Robert Beal Jr.

  Out

  Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

• Charles Demmings

  Out

  Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

• Brett Thorson

  Out

  Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

• Caleb Douglas

  Out

  Ankle · Did not practice · Out

• Christian Darrisaw

  DNP

  Did not practice

• Aaron Jones Sr.

  LP

  Limited practice

• Harrison Smith

  LP

  Limited practice

• Tucker Addington

  LP

  Limited practice

• Chris Bell

  FP

  Full practice

• Blake Cashman

  FP

  Full practice

• Josh Uche

  FP

  Full practice

• Zeek Biggers

  FP

  Full practice

• Aaron Brewer

  FP

  Full practice

• Dante Trader Jr.

  FP

  Full practice

• Chop Robinson

  FP

  Full practice

• JuJu Brents

  FP

  Full practice

• Jaylen Wright

  FP

  Full practice

• Seydou Traore

  FP

  Full practice

SITUATIONAL

• MIA: 192.3 team passing yards per game to MIN's 137

  55.3 YPG

  MIA is at 192.3 team passing yards per game over 3 games; MIN is at 137 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season MIA was at 180.5 over 17 games and MIN at 166.7 over 17 games.

• MIA: 2 fourth-down attempts per game to MIN's 0.67

  1.33 ATT/G

  MIA is at 2 fourth-down attempts per game over 3 games; MIN is at 0.67 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season MIA was at 1.35 over 17 games and MIN at 1.41 over 17 games.

• MIA: 41.5% third-down conversion rate to MIN's 30.2%

  11.2 PP

  MIA is at 41.5% third-down conversion rate over 3 games; MIN is at 30.2% over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season MIA was at 34.9% over 17 games and MIN at 31.8% over 17 games.

• MIA (0-3) at MIN (3-0)

  +80 PT GAP

  Miami is 0-3 and -50, meaning the Dolphins are losing by wide margins, and they are 0-2 on the road. Minnesota is 3-0 and +30 with one home game played. Three games is still early, yet a margin that lopsided is hard to wave off as bad luck. The question is whether a line this wide is already as big as Miami's losses justify.

• MIA: 6.1 yards per pass attempt to MIN's 5.07

  1.03 Y/A

  MIA is at 6.1 yards per pass attempt over 3 games; MIN is at 5.07 over 3 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 3. Last season MIA was at 6 over 17 games and MIN at 5.1 over 17 games.

STREAK

• MIN has won 3 straight

  W3

  Minnesota is 3-0 and hosts Miami, which has not won yet. Three games is a short run, and without the opponents on the sheet there is no telling how tough those wins were. A spot like this usually draws one-sided public money toward the unbeaten home team. That tends to inflate the spread, so the question is how many points this streak is really worth.

• MIA has lost 3 straight

  L3

  Miami is 0-3, and now has to go to Minnesota, which is 3-0. Three games is a small sample for both sides, and the sheet does not show who either team played. Matchups between an unbeaten home team and a winless road team often get priced at the extremes. The spot to think about is whether the gap in the line is bigger than the gap in how these teams have actually played.

AFTER GARY

• MIA +9.5 → +9.5

  NOW +0.24PP

  Gary's number was 9.5; the same book now shows 9.5.