New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
O/U 41.5 · SPREAD New England Patriots -7.5 · Hard Rock Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- New England Patriots -7.5 -108
- Published odds
- -108
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 24-19
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 68 moves| Market | Opened Oct 25 6:11 PM | Close Sun 4:15 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | New England Patriots -7.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -7 (-102) | −½ |
| TOTAL | 44.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-110) | −3 |
| MONEYLINE | New England Patriots -400 | New England Patriots -350 | +50 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 25 6:11 PM | New England Patriots -7.5 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -400 · Miami Dolphins +320 |
| Oct 25 8:53 PM | New England Patriots -7.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +310 |
| Oct 25 9:53 PM | New England Patriots -7.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +300 |
| Oct 25 10:23 PM | New England Patriots -7.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +300 |
| Oct 26 12:23 AM | New England Patriots -7.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +300 |
| Oct 26 6:00 AM | New England Patriots -7.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +310 |
| Oct 26 8:31 AM | New England Patriots -7.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +300 |
| Oct 26 9:00 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-118) | 44.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +300 |
| Oct 26 10:01 AM | New England Patriots -7.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +300 |
| Oct 26 1:02 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-115) | 44.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +300 |
| Oct 26 3:03 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-115) | 44.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Oct 27 3:01 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Oct 27 4:02 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Oct 27 5:02 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +275 |
| Oct 27 8:05 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Oct 27 9:05 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Oct 27 11:05 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-105) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Oct 28 6:00 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 44 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Oct 28 8:01 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-110) | 44.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Oct 28 9:00 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Oct 28 10:01 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 44 (-108) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Oct 28 11:02 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 44 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Oct 28 12:17 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 44 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Oct 28 3:48 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 44 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Thu 9:00 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 44 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Thu 9:31 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 44 (-108) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Thu 10:16 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Thu 1:02 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Thu 2:02 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Thu 2:48 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Thu 3:33 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Thu 3:57 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Thu 4:36 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Fri 9:00 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Fri 12:38 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Fri 2:02 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Fri 4:02 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Fri 6:02 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 43 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Fri 8:02 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 43 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Sat 9:00 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Sat 2:32 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 43 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Sat 5:04 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 43 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +260 |
| Sat 5:34 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 43 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Sat 6:04 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43 (-110) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Sat 9:35 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43 (-108) | New England Patriots -325 · Miami Dolphins +270 |
| Sun 4:45 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +280 |
| Sun 6:00 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 43 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +275 |
| Sun 7:01 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 43 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +280 |
| Sun 8:31 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 42.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +280 |
| Sun 9:00 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 42 (-112) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +275 |
| Sun 9:30 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-112) | 42 (-108) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +300 |
| Sun 10:00 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Sun 10:11 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-115) | 41.5 (-105) | New England Patriots -375 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Sun 10:41 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-115) | 41.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Sun 10:51 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-110) | 41.5 (-105) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +280 |
| Sun 11:32 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +280 |
| Sun 11:42 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-110) | 41.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +280 |
| Sun 11:52 AM | New England Patriots -7 (-110) | 41.5 (-105) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Sun 12:00 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 41.5 (-105) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Sun 12:13 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 41.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +280 |
| Sun 12:33 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 41.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Sun 12:43 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-108) | 41.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Sun 1:13 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-110) | 41.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Sun 2:14 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-102) | 41.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| Sun 3:15 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-102) | 41.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +280 |
| Sun 3:25 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 41.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +280 |
| Sun 3:35 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-105) | 41.5 (-108) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +280 |
| Sun 4:05 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-102) | 41.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +290 |
| CLOSESun 4:15 PM | New England Patriots -7 (-102) | 41.5 (-110) | New England Patriots -350 · Miami Dolphins +280 |
The read
The Patriots come into Hard Rock Stadium on 10 days' rest for a 4:25 division kickoff, with drizzle in the forecast and gusts up to 26 mph. Miami is 1-5, but it would have covered this number in each of its last three games, so laying 7.5 here takes conviction.
Mine starts with Drake Maye. Over the last four games, Maye has thrown 12 touchdowns and 2 interceptions at nearly 9 yards per attempt. Miami's pass defense has allowed 77% completions, 8.1 yards per attempt and 14 touchdown passes against 4 picks. The Dolphins have 6 sacks all season and none in four of six games, so expect a clean pocket. Opponents convert 54% of third downs against them and have scored touchdowns on 17 of 25 red-zone trips.
The season numbers back the price. New England gains 6.1 yards per play and allows 5.4. Miami gains 5.2 and allows 5.9. The point differentials are +17 and -59. Both teams played the Raiders: the Patriots won 45-17 at home, while Miami lost 27-13 in Las Vegas.
The injury report hurts Miami more. Tackle Kadyn Proctor, who has played every snap this season, is out, and Miami's run game leans on its blocking. New England is without A.J. Brown, but Brown has caught just 6 of 16 targets with 3 drops since returning, and the Patriots scored 45 without Brown in Week 5. Center Ben Brown and cornerback Carlton Davis both practiced fully this week.
The risks are real. New England is 1-3 on the road, and its biggest road win is 3 points. The Patriots have 14 giveaways in seven games. Ollie Gordon II has 291 rushing yards over the last three games, and Miami can shorten this game on the ground, as it did when it held the ball for 34:36 against the Jets. The wind could also blunt the passing edge. Still, all three of New England's road losses came against winning teams, and Miami's defense has forced only 5 turnovers all year.
I'm laying the 7.5, but I wouldn't lay a point more.
Injuries noted
New England Patriots: Harold Landry III (PUP-R) — Landry (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Patriots on Sunday.; Julian Hill (IR) — The Patriots placed Hill (knee) on IR on Monday.; Myles Montgomery (IR); Marcus Bryant (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full. Bryant (ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Dolphins.; Khalil Jacobs (IR) — The Patriots placed Jacobs (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Mike Onwenu (IR) — The Patriots placed Onwenu (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Dell Pettus (IR) — The Patriots placed Pettus (ankle) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Reggie Gilliam (IR) — The Patriots placed Gilliam (ankle/knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Quintayvious Hutchins (IR) — Hutchins (knee) was placed on injured reserve Friday.; Greg Van Roten (IR) — The Patriots placed Van Roten (thigh) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Mack Hollins (IR) — The Patriots placed Hollins (calf) on injured reserve Saturday.; Romeo Doubs (IR) — Doubs (shoulder) is hopeful to return after the Patriots' Week 11 bye and isn't expected to face a long-term absence.; Alijah Vera-Tucker (IR) — Vera-Tucker (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve by the Patriots on Thursday.; A.J. Brown (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle, knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Brown (knee/ankle) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Dolphins.; TreVeyon Henderson (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: illness; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Henderson (illness) has been downgraded from questionable to out for Sunday's game against the Dolphins.; Carlton Davis III (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: neck; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full. Davis (neck) is questionable for Sunday's Week 8 contest in Miami.; Christian Elliss (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: chest; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full. Elliss (chest) is listed as questionable against the Dolphins on Sunday.; DaQuan Jones (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: back; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Morgan Moses (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: foot; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Kevin Byard (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: chest; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Dre'Mont Jones (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Ben Brown (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Drake Maye (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Karon Prunty (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Channing Canada (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.
Miami Dolphins: Darrell Baker Jr. (PUP-R) — Baker (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Dolphins on Sunday.; Rene Konga (IR); Trey Moore (IR-R) — ir; Cole Turner (IR) — Turner (undisclosed) reverted to the Dolphins' injured-reserve list Thursday.; Reese Taylor (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: quadricep; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full. Taylor (quadriceps) is questionable for Sunday's contest against New England.; Ronnie Harrison Jr. (IR) — The Dolphins placed Harrison (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; De'Von Achane (IR) — The Dolphins placed Achane (knee) on injured reserve Monday.; JuJu Brents (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: neck, concussion; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full. Brents (neck/concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Patriots.; Kadyn Proctor (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: concussion; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Proctor (concussion) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Patriots.; Greg Dulcich (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Tucker Addington (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Malik Willis (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: groin; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Rob Beal Jr. (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jared Wayne (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jaylen Wright (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: foot, quadricep; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Malik Washington (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Dante Trader Jr. (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Will Kacmarek (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Michael Taaffe (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: neck, foot; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Drake Maye is the projected starting quarterback for NE
8.34 Y/AThrough 7 games in 2026, Drake Maye threw for 1784 passing yards, completed 65.9% of his passes and averaged 8.34 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4394 yards, completed 72% and averaged 8.93 yards per attempt, 31-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 13-8 touchdown-to-interception line is 7 games in.
Malik Willis is the projected starting quarterback for MIA
7 Y/AThrough 6 games in 2026, Malik Willis threw for 1057 passing yards, completed 57.6% of his passes and averaged 7 yards per attempt. Last season over 4 games he threw for 422 yards, completed 85.7% and averaged 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.
TRENCHES
MIA: 4.72 yards per rush attempt to NE's 4.17
0.55 Y/CNE is at 4.17 yards per rush attempt over 7 games; MIA is at 4.72 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season NE was at 4.4 over 17 games and MIA at 4.64 over 17 games.
PASS RUSH
NE: 2.43 sacks recorded per game to MIA's 1
1.43 SACKSNew England averages 2.43 sacks a game over 7 games, while Miami's defense has just 1 in its 6, among the weakest pass rushes. Sack totals depend on how often opponents drop back, and the sheet doesn't say who either team faced. In Miami, the Patriots' quarterback should have a cleaner pocket than the Dolphins' will.
PACE & SCRIPT
NE: 22.9 points per game to MIA's 16.3
6.5 PPGNew England outscores Miami by about a touchdown a game, though both offenses are down from last season: NE from 28.8, MIA from 20.4. Miami's 16.3 over 6 games is a low bar for an offense that averaged 20.4 last year. Scoring is the noisiest of these stats over a partial season, so some bounce back is possible for both teams.
NE: 20.4 points allowed per game to MIA's 26.2
5.7 PPGNE is at 20.4 points allowed per game over 7 games; MIA is at 26.2 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season NE was at 18.8 over 17 games and MIA at 24.9 over 17 games.
NE: 62.4 offensive plays per game to MIA's 56.3
6.1 PLAYSNE is at 62.4 offensive plays per game over 7 games; MIA is at 56.3 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season NE was at 61.4 over 17 games and MIA at 55.8 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
MIA: 1.33 turnovers committed per game to NE's 2
0.67 TONE is at 2 turnovers committed per game over 7 games; MIA is at 1.33 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season NE was at 0.94 over 17 games and MIA at 1.41 over 17 games.
MIA: 0.67 interceptions thrown per game to NE's 1.14
0.48 INTNE is at 1.14 interceptions thrown per game over 7 games; MIA is at 0.67 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season NE was at 0.47 over 17 games and MIA at 1.06 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
NE: 6.06 yards per play to MIA's 5.23
0.82 Y/PPer snap, New England moves the ball more efficiently than Miami, and last season looked almost the same: 6.23 against 5.4 over 17 games. That consistency makes this one of the more trustworthy gaps. Miami needs more plays to cover the same ground, which raises the odds a drive stalls. NE should hold the edge in efficiency.
RED ZONE
NE: 54.5% red-zone scoring allowed to MIA's 65.4%
10.8 PPNE is at 54.5% red-zone scoring allowed over 7 games; MIA is at 65.4% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 31.
MISMATCH
NE: 253 pass yards a game to MIA's 162
253 VS 162New England is throwing for 253 a game over seven games, Miami 162 over six. The Patriots are right on last season's 250.5, so that is who they are. Miami has dropped from 180.5 last season, and a passing game that limited makes it hard to chase points. If New England gets ahead early, the Dolphins' path back runs through an offense that has not shown it can throw its way there.
COVERAGE
NE: 36.6% third downs allowed to MIA's 52.1%
15.5 PPNew England holds opponents to 36.6% on third down over 7 games, while Miami allows 52.1% in its 6, which is very bad. Third-down rates swing, but Miami giving up more than half over six games points to a real weakness. The Patriots' offense should be able to stay on the field in Miami and run longer drives.
NE: 5.4 yards per play allowed to MIA's 5.93
0.53 Y/PNew England allows 5.4 yards per play over 7 games, while Miami gives up 5.93 over 6. Yards per play is one of the steadier defensive numbers, so a half-yard gap across this many games usually reflects a real difference between the units. The sheet has no opponent or last-season context, so it can't show how much schedule has helped. For this game, New England's offense should find steadier gains against Miami than Miami finds against them.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
NE lead the series with MIA since 2025
2-0 SERIESNew England won both games last season, 33-27 in Miami in September and 38-10 at home in January. The second game was one-way. The first was a shootout that Miami kept close at home, and this one is back in Miami. The Patriots have scored 33 and 38 in the two meetings, so their offense has had the upper hand. The home crowd mattered more in the closer game.
REPLACEMENT
Marcus Bryant (OT) is ir-r for NE
IR-RBryant has an ankle injury and has been ruled out for Sunday's game at Miami. His status is designated to return from injured reserve, so a comeback is in view, but it won't come this week. New England plays this one a tackle short.
Romeo Doubs (WR) is on injured reserve for NE
IRDoubs is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury and is hoping to return after New England's Week 11 bye, according to an Oct 19 report. He isn't expected to miss long term, but he won't play at Miami, so the Patriots go without him here.
Alijah Vera-Tucker (G) is on injured reserve for NE
IRThe Patriots put Vera-Tucker on injured reserve on Oct 22 with a hamstring injury, which rules him out at guard against Miami and for at least a few more weeks. IR leaves no doubt about this game. The facts don't say who takes his spot, so the interior line is the place to watch. Before you bet a run-heavy angle for New England, check who is starting at guard.
PRACTICE REPORT
Kadyn Proctor
OutConcussion · Did not practice · Out
TreVeyon Henderson
QuestionableIllness · Did not practice · Questionable
Christian Elliss
QuestionableChest · Full practice · Questionable
Carlton Davis III
QuestionableNeck · Full practice · Questionable
JuJu Brents
QuestionableNeck, Concussion · Full practice · Questionable
Reese Taylor
QuestionableQuadricep · Full practice · Questionable
A.J. Brown
QuestionableAnkle, Knee · Did not practice · Questionable
Tucker Addington
LPLimited practice
Malik Washington
FPFull practice
Jared Wayne
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Michael Taaffe
FPFull practice
Jaylen Wright
FPFull practice
Kevin Byard
FPFull practice
Karon Prunty
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Will Kacmarek
FPFull practice
DaQuan Jones
FPFull practice
Greg Dulcich
FPFull practice
Drake Maye
FPFull practice
Malik Willis
FPFull practice
Dante Trader Jr.
FPFull practice
Channing Canada
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Dre'Mont Jones
FPFull practice
Ben Brown
FPFull practice
Morgan Moses
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
NE: 253 team passing yards per game to MIA's 162
91 YPGNew England throws for 253 a game to Miami's 162, and NE's number is almost exactly last season's 250.5, so that side is steady. Miami's passing game has dropped from 180.5 last season, over six games this year. The Patriots look set to control how this game is played through the air. If MIA can't keep pace passing, it will need its defense to slow NE to stay in it.
NE (4-3) at MIA (1-5), a division game
-76 PT GAPNew England is 4-3 and +17, but only 1-3 on the road, so most of its success has come at home. Miami is 1-5 and -59, winless in two home games, and coming off its only win. The season numbers favor the Patriots clearly. The road split is the one soft spot, and in a division game it is the part of New England's record to discount before trusting the overall gap.
NE: 7.63 yards per pass attempt to MIA's 5.85
1.78 Y/ANew England gains a lot more per throw than Miami, and the gap looks real: last season NE was at 7.99 and MIA at 6 over 17 games. Seven and six games this year line up with that history, so this is a stable trait. Miami's passing game rarely stretches the field, which means it needs long drives to score. Expect NE to have the easier path to chunk plays through the air in this matchup.
NE: 21.1 first downs per game to MIA's 16.7
4.5 FDNE is at 21.1 first downs per game over 7 games; MIA is at 16.7 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season NE was at 21.2 over 17 games and MIA at 17.1 over 17 games.
NE has 3 more days of rest
10d vs 7dNew England comes in on 10 days with a bye behind it, and Miami plays on a normal 7-day week. Three extra days is a smaller cushion than a full extra week, but it still gives the Patriots more time to rest and plan, which helps cancel some of the cost of going on the road. Miami runs its usual weekly routine at home. Count it as a slight edge for New England's preparation, not enough on its own to outweigh home field.
NE: 72.7% fourth-down conversion rate to MIA's 50%
22.7 PPNE is at 72.7% fourth-down conversion rate over 7 games; MIA is at 50% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season NE was at 72% over 17 games and MIA at 47.8% over 17 games.
TEAM RECORD
AFC EAST game: NE 2-0, MIA 1-0 in the division
DIVISIONNew England is 2-0 in the AFC East and Miami is 1-0, so neither has dropped a division game. Three combined games is a very small sample. Division familiarity tends to tighten games regardless of record. Look past these marks to the overall form and the Miami home setting.
AFTER GARY
NE -7.5 → -7.5
NOW +3.85PPGary's number was -7.5; the same book now shows -7.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKHUNTER HENRYRECEIVING YARDS OVER 43.5
Look at who Drake Maye has left to throw to. A.J. Brown is ruled out, and Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are both on IR. That leaves DeMario Douglas, Kyle Williams and Efton Chism outside, and none of them commands the ball the way a veteran tight end does when the play breaks down. Henry has been the steady option all month. He caught all seven of his targets in Chicago for 71 yards, and he has been over this number in each of the last four games with Brown in and out of the lineup.
Miami's defense has been generous to tight ends all season. Minnesota's tight ends caught every ball thrown their way against them, Kansas City's went for nearly a hundred, and Cincinnati and the Jets each got two scores out of the position. Their linebackers and safeties keep getting stressed in the middle of the field, and that is exactly where Henry lives. The drizzle and gusty wind push this offense toward shorter, safer throws over the deep shots, and that helps the tight end too. Maye has ten days of rest and a thin receiver room. I expect him to keep finding his most reliable target, and 44 yards is a modest bar for that role in this matchup.
- GARY'S PICKOLLIE GORDON IIRUSHING YARDS OVER 62.5
With De'Von Achane on IR, Gordon has turned into the engine of this Miami offense. He put up 103, 88 and 100 in his three games as the lead back, and that 100 came on only nine carries in Minnesota. Jaylen Wright gets a handful of touches but has done nothing with them, so the work keeps going back to Gordon, including the goal line. The part I trust most is that he kept getting fed against Cincinnati even when Miami was trailing by double digits. This staff does not panic out of the run.
The matchup cooperates. New England has given running backs steady production most weeks without ever shutting the position down, and Chicago and the Jets both moved the ball on the ground against them the last two games. Miami knows its best path with Malik Willis is to shorten the game, stay on schedule and keep Maye on the sideline. Losing Kadyn Proctor at left tackle hurts, but it hurts the passing game more, since Willis has struggled whenever he has had to hold the ball. Add in a wet, windy afternoon at home and I expect the Dolphins to lean on Gordon again. Eighteen or so carries should be enough to get him past this number.
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