Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
O/U 40.5 · SPREAD Las Vegas Raiders -14.5 · Allegiant Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Miami Dolphins +3 -108
- Published odds
- -108
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 13-27
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 30 moves| Market | Opened Sep 9 10:49 AM | Close Sep 13 4:06 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 (-108) | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-108) | −½ |
| TOTAL | 40.5 (-112) | 40 (-118) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Las Vegas Raiders -185 | Las Vegas Raiders -165 | +20 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 9 10:49 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 (-108) | 40.5 (-112) | Las Vegas Raiders -185 · Miami Dolphins +150 |
| Sep 9 1:13 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 (-105) | 40.5 (-112) | Las Vegas Raiders -190 · Miami Dolphins +155 |
| Sep 9 2:44 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 (-108) | 41 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -190 · Miami Dolphins +155 |
| Sep 9 4:15 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-108) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -160 · Miami Dolphins +135 |
| Sep 9 4:45 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-110) | 40 (-112) | Las Vegas Raiders -165 · Miami Dolphins +135 |
| Sep 9 4:53 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-110) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -160 · Miami Dolphins +135 |
| Sep 9 5:45 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-110) | 40 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -165 · Miami Dolphins +135 |
| Sep 9 6:16 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-112) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +145 |
| Sep 9 10:59 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-112) | 40 (-112) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +145 |
| Sep 10 6:00 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-112) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +145 |
| Sep 10 10:31 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-102) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +140 |
| Sep 10 11:01 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-115) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +145 |
| Sep 10 1:03 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-115) | 40.5 (-108) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +145 |
| Sep 11 6:00 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-115) | 40.5 (-108) | Las Vegas Raiders -165 · Miami Dolphins +140 |
| Sep 11 10:01 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-110) | 40.5 (-108) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +145 |
| Sep 11 9:22 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-108) | 40.5 (-108) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +145 |
| Sep 12 5:01 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-108) | 40.5 (-108) | Las Vegas Raiders -165 · Miami Dolphins +140 |
| Sep 13 10:14 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-115) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +145 |
| Sep 13 10:46 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-112) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +145 |
| Sep 13 11:06 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-115) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +145 |
| Sep 13 11:16 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-112) | 40.5 (-108) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +145 |
| Sep 13 11:57 AM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-112) | 40.5 (-105) | Las Vegas Raiders -175 · Miami Dolphins +140 |
| Sep 13 12:07 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-112) | 40.5 (-105) | Las Vegas Raiders -165 · Miami Dolphins +138 |
| Sep 13 12:17 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-112) | 40.5 (-105) | Las Vegas Raiders -165 · Miami Dolphins +140 |
| Sep 13 12:27 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-110) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -165 · Miami Dolphins +140 |
| Sep 13 1:25 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-112) | 40.5 (-105) | Las Vegas Raiders -165 · Miami Dolphins +140 |
| Sep 13 3:26 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-110) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -165 · Miami Dolphins +140 |
| Sep 13 3:36 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-110) | 40.5 (-110) | Las Vegas Raiders -160 · Miami Dolphins +138 |
| Sep 13 3:46 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-110) | 40.5 (-108) | Las Vegas Raiders -160 · Miami Dolphins +138 |
| Sep 13 3:56 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-112) | 40 (-118) | Las Vegas Raiders -165 · Miami Dolphins +140 |
| CLOSESep 13 4:06 PM | Las Vegas Raiders -3 (-108) | 40 (-118) | Las Vegas Raiders -165 · Miami Dolphins +138 |
The read
Las Vegas and Miami open new coaching eras at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Kirk Cousins and Malik Willis lead their new teams into an opener built around reshaped offenses.
I’m building Miami’s case around De’Von Achane. His 1,350 rushing yards and 488 receiving yards last season give this offense an established threat in both phases. Miami’s stated emphasis on screens and quarterback movement fits that versatility. I expect Achane’s involvement, alongside Willis’ movement, to help sustain possessions without requiring rookie receivers Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas to carry the offense.
The matchup on the other side is why I want the points. Brock Bowers was ruled out with a knee injury on September 11, a fresh absence removing a player who caught 64 passes for 680 yards and seven touchdowns last season. Michael Mayer provides an alternative, but I expect losing Bowers to make finishing drives harder for Cousins. Miami can challenge the protection with Zach Sieler inside and Chop Robinson off the edge. My read is that those disruptions become more consequential when Las Vegas has fewer established receiving options available.
Las Vegas has a legitimate answer: Ashton Jeanty against a Miami defense that allowed 132.4 rushing yards per game last season. The Raiders have rebuilt their offensive line, and their own defense allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per attempt in 2025. Sustained rushing success could keep Cousins comfortable while forcing Miami into a more demanding passing game. That is the strongest threat to this ticket, especially with Willis still establishing himself as a regular starter.
I give Miami’s combination of Achane’s rushing and receiving production and its defensive front enough weight to take the spread. I expect the Dolphins to sustain enough offense and interrupt enough Raiders possessions to remain competitive through the fourth quarter. That supports taking three points more strongly than requiring Miami to win outright.
Injuries noted
Miami Dolphins: Darrell Baker Jr. (PUP-R) — Baker (undisclosed) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Dolphins on Sunday.; Storm Duck (PUP-R) — Duck (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by Miami on Sunday.; Rene Konga (IR) — Undisclosed; Kenneth Grant (IR-R) — ir; Trey Moore (IR-R) — ir; Cole Turner (IR) — Turner (undisclosed) reverted to the Dolphins' injured-reserve list Thursday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.
Las Vegas Raiders: Chris Collier (IR) — Collier (undisclosed) reverted to injured reserve with the Raiders on Sunday, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.; Justin Shorter (IR) — Undisclosed; Corey Rucker (IR) — Undisclosed; Justin Pickett (IR) — ir; Chigozie Anusiem (IR) — The Raiders placed Anusiem (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Keyron Crawford (IR) — The Raiders placed Crawford (ankle) on injured reserve Sunday, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.; Brennan Jackson (IR) — ir; Carter Runyon (IR-R) — Runyon (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Raiders on Sunday with a designation to return.; Dont'e Thornton Jr. (IR) — ir; Brock Bowers (Out) — Raiders coach Klint Kubiak confirmed Friday that Bowers (knee) won't play Sunday against Miami, but Kubiak did say the tight end "will be back soon," per Levi Edwards of the Raiders' official site.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Malik Willis starts at quarterback for MIA
12.06 Y/AWillis's 2025 season line: 422 passing yards, 85.7% completions, 12.06 yards per attempt, 3-0 TD-INT over 4 games.
Kirk Cousins starts at quarterback for LV
6.4 Y/ACousins's 2025 season line: 1721 passing yards, 61.7% completions, 6.4 yards per attempt, 10-5 TD-INT over 10 games.
MIA averages +1.06 yards every time it drops back (2025 season)
1.06 Y/AMIA is at 6 yards per pass attempt over 17 games; LV is at 4.94 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
TRENCHES
MIA is +42.8 rush yards per game (2025 season)
42.8 YPGMIA produced 42.8 more rushing yards per game in the 2025 regular season, averaging 120.2 over 17 games versus LV’s 77.5 over 17. MIA brings the stronger ground-production profile, but these totals alone cannot establish who dictates the matchup’s style.
MIA gets +1.25 more yards a carry (2025 season)
1.25 Y/CMIA is at 4.64 yards per rush attempt over 17 games; LV is at 3.38 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
PASS RUSH
MIA's offense takes 1.08 fewer sacks per game (2025 season)
1.08 SACKSMIA is at 2.92 sacks taken per game over 17 games; LV is at 4 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
MIA's pocket leaks 9.5 fewer yards per game (2025 season)
9.5 YDSMIA is at 19.5 sack yards lost per game over 17 games; LV is at 29 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
PACE & SCRIPT
MIA @ LV carries a 40.5 market total
40.5The current fanduel total is 40.5, 7 points below the 47.5 median across 13 games with posted totals on this slate.
MIA is scoring +6.2 points per game (2025 season)
6.2 PPGMIA is at 20.4 points per game over 17 games; LV is at 14.2 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
MIA owns a +1.05 yards-per-play gap (2025 season)
1.05 Y/PMIA is at 5.4 yards per play over 17 games; LV is at 4.35 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
RED ZONE
MIA gets inside the 20 0.71 more times per game (2025 season)
0.71 TRIPSMIA is at 2.82 red-zone trips per game over 17 games; LV is at 2.12 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
MISMATCH
MIA's ground game against LV's — 120.2 rush yards a game to 77.5 (2025 season)
120.2 VS 77.5Miami averaged 120.2 rushing yards per game over 17 games in the 2025 regular season, while Las Vegas averaged 77.5 over 17. That offensive gap does not identify how Miami can attack the Raiders’ run defense.
REPLACEMENT
Aidan O'Connell (QB) is inactive for LV
INACTIVEO'Connell (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Raiders' emergency third quarterback against the Dolphins on Sunday. Reported Sep 13.
Brady Cook (QB) is inactive for MIA
INACTIVECook (coach's decision) will be the emergency quarterback for Sunday's game against the Raiders. Reported Sep 13.
Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR) is on injured reserve for LV
IRir Reported Sep 8.
Kyle Louis (LB) is questionable for MIA
QUESTIONABLELouis (knee) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Raiders. Reported Sep 13.
PRACTICE REPORT
Brock Bowers
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
AFTER GARY
MIA +3 → +3
NO MOVEFANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, caesars, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKDE'VON ACHANERUSHING YARDS OVER 69.5
Achane is the central piece of Miami's rebuilt offense, and the Raiders allowed 4.8 yards per carry last season. His speed creates problems even when the blocking is imperfect, and his 2025 rushing-yard results cleared this number in seven of his last 10 games. Fifteen to 18 carries gives him a strong path past 70 yards.
- THE LONG SHOTASHTON JEANTYANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
Jeanty is the engine of this offense and should own the highest-value rushing opportunities, especially with Las Vegas trying to protect Cousins in a new system. Miami ranked 26th against the run last season, while Jeanty scored 10 total touchdowns as a rookie. His workload and goal-line role make this the cleanest Raiders touchdown angle.
- GARY'S PICKKIRK COUSINSPASSING YARDS UNDER 206.5
Cousins is entering a new offense with a thin receiving group and no Brock Bowers, while Miami's front has the personnel to force shorter throws and hurried decisions. His 2025 baseline was only 172.1 passing yards per game, and he topped 206.5 in just two of his last 10. Las Vegas should lean on Jeanty early, keeping this number vulnerable.
- THE LONG SHOTDE'VON ACHANEANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
Achane accounted for 12 total touchdowns last season and remains Miami's most reliable red-zone weapon by both usage and explosiveness. The Dolphins' new offense is built around getting him touches in space, and the Raiders' run defense surrendered the third-most rushing touchdowns last season. Plus money is enough for me to take the chance that one of his touches breaks the game open.
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