Detroit Lions picks

Unbeaten Minnesota walks into Ford Field as a field-goal underdog against a Detroit team that's 3-0 at home, and the market is daring you to doubt the 6-0. I'll take the points. Strip away the records and these teams grade out almost the same, snap for snap. Minnesota gains 4.8 yards a play and allows 4.5. Detroit gains 6.0 and allows 5.6. That's roughly +0.3 against +0.4, a coin flip on a neutral field, and -3 hands Detroit the full key number for home field. Point differential leans the other way: Vikings +51, Lions +19. Detroit hasn't separated from anyone at home. The wins went 31-30 in overtime over the Saints, 31-24 over the Jets and 20-17 over the Packers, and two of those teams are 2-5. Against -3, that's a cover, a push and a loss. Minnesota's games are slow and tight. Five of six finished under 40 total points, and the Vikings held the ball for more than 39 minutes twice. Will Reichard is 18-of-19 with makes from 52, 54, 55 and 56, so any drive past midfield is points. The Lions have fumbled 10 times and lost 3. They face a defense with 11 takeaways that has allowed 3 touchdowns on 13 red-zone trips. The common opponents tilt Minnesota too. The Vikings held Tyler Shough to 96 passing yards in New Orleans; Shough threw for 410 at Ford Field. Detroit's nickel, Roger McCreary, is questionable with a foot injury. Christian Izien, next up, gave up 7 catches on 8 targets against the Jets. The risk is real. Jared Goff handles the blitz, and the blitz is how Minnesota wins. Goff has been pressured on no more than 27% of dropbacks all season and has 0 interceptions in 223 attempts. Kyler Murray's offense has 4 touchdowns in four starts. The 6-0 also has some kicking luck baked in. A 20-17 final is very live, and that's a push. Still, at the full 3, with a defense this stingy near the goal line in a short game, the points are worth more than the market is giving. Keep the stake small. If the 3 disappears, so do I.