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NFL · Sun, Oct 25 · 4:25 PM

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

O/U 55.5 · SPREAD Detroit Lions -3.5 · Ford Field

GARY'S PICK
Lions -3.5
NFLvs Packers· -108

Lions
-3.5

-108 · LOST · GB 17 · DET 20

Packers

The pick & result

Published pick
Detroit Lions -3.5 -108
Published odds
-108
Result
Lost
Final score
17-20

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 65 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 19 6:00 AM
Close
Sun 4:13 PM
Move
SPREADDetroit Lions -3.5 (+105)Detroit Lions -4 (-110)+½
TOTAL52.5 (-108)55.5 (-108)+3
MONEYLINEDetroit Lions -175Detroit Lions -210−35
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 19 6:00 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (+105)52.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 19 6:30 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-108)52.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 19 9:31 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-108)52.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145
Oct 19 10:01 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-108)53 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145
Oct 19 11:01 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)52.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 19 11:31 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)53 (-108)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 19 2:01 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-108)53 (-108)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +138
Oct 19 2:31 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-108)53 (-108)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 19 3:31 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)53 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 19 4:01 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-108)53 (-108)Detroit Lions -160 · Green Bay Packers +135
Oct 19 5:15 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)52.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -160 · Green Bay Packers +135
Oct 19 5:25 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)53 (-108)Detroit Lions -160 · Green Bay Packers +135
Oct 19 6:36 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)53 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +138
Oct 19 9:54 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)53.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +138
Oct 19 10:24 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)53.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 20 12:25 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 20 6:00 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 20 6:31 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 20 8:38 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 20 10:01 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 20 10:44 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-108)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 20 12:45 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140
Oct 20 1:46 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145
Oct 20 3:47 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +150
Oct 20 4:47 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145
Thu 9:00 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)53.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145
Thu 9:56 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145
Thu 12:28 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Green Bay Packers +150
Thu 12:58 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140
Thu 3:29 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140
Thu 6:43 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140
Fri 10:01 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140
Fri 3:02 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145
Fri 9:00 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145
Sat 12:32 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Green Bay Packers +150
Sat 1:02 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-108)53.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Green Bay Packers +150
Sat 7:03 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)54 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sat 7:33 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)54.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sat 8:34 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sat 9:04 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sat 9:34 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)54.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165
Sat 10:04 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-108)55 (-108)Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165
Sat 10:34 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55 (-108)Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165
Sun 12:34 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55 (-110)Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +160
Sun 4:45 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-108)55 (-110)Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165
Sun 6:30 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165
Sun 7:41 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-108)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165
Sun 8:12 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-108)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +160
Sun 9:42 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-108)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +160
Sun 10:20 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +160
Sun 10:50 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sun 11:20 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +160
Sun 11:30 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55 (-120)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sun 11:41 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sun 12:51 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +160
Sun 1:22 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +160
Sun 1:53 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-112)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +160
Sun 2:03 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sun 3:03 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sun 3:13 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-110)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sun 3:23 PMDetroit Lions -4 (-110)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sun 3:33 PMDetroit Lions -4 (-110)55 (-120)Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155
Sun 3:43 PMDetroit Lions -4 (-108)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -210 · Green Bay Packers +170
Sun 3:53 PMDetroit Lions -4 (-108)55 (-118)Detroit Lions -210 · Green Bay Packers +170
Sun 4:03 PMDetroit Lions -4 (-108)55 (-112)Detroit Lions -210 · Green Bay Packers +170
CLOSESun 4:13 PMDetroit Lions -4 (-110)55.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -210 · Green Bay Packers +170

The read

The Packers walk into Ford Field off a 4-2 start, and the Lions come out of their bye at home in a 4:25 division game on FOX. The record says Green Bay. The matchup says Detroit.

Detroit's offense is the best unit on the field, and it hasn't had an off week: 26 or more points in all five games, 4-for-4 in the red zone last time out, and Goff without an interception in 191 attempts. It lives in the middle of the field through Gibbs, LaPorta and St. Brown, which is exactly where Green Bay is thinnest. Parsons hasn't played. Hargrave, Ford and Cooper are on IR. Now Franklin, an every-snap linebacker last week, is out, so McDuffie and Hopper start and Riley plays for the first time since tearing an Achilles. The Packers did hold Dallas to 48 rushing yards without Hargrave and Ford, so this isn't a collapse. But Franklin's absence lands right where the Lions attack.

Green Bay's case is real. Detroit's defense has allowed 469, 446 and 445 yards and 24 or more points in four of five games, and Golden and Watson create big plays. But Branch and Ya-Sin return to that secondary, and the Lions' rush lands 7 to 12 QB hits every week. Love took 15 and 12 in the Packers' two losses.

The bigger problem is finishing drives. Green Bay has never scored more than two red-zone touchdowns in a game and has topped 23 points once, against Tyson Bagent. Jacobs returns to a run game where Lloyd has 122 yards on 48 carries. A first game back, with the workload coming from a single report, doesn't move this much.

Ignore the records. Two of the Packers' wins came against backup quarterbacks, and they've scored about as many points as they've allowed. Ignore Goff's clean turnover sheet too, because nothing is due in either direction.

The risk is plain: a Lions win by exactly 3 loses this ticket, and Detroit's defense can give up a late backdoor score. It's a lean, not a hammer. But the gap is in finishing drives, and it points to Detroit.

Injuries noted

Green Bay Packers: Luke Musgrave (PUP-R) — Packers head coach Matt Lafleur said Thursday it's "tough to say" whether Musgrave (neck) plays this season, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Micah Parsons (PUP-R) — Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said that Parsons (knee) won't practice in Week 7, Weston Hodkiewicz of the team's official site reports. "He has to clear some hurdles yet before we get to that point," LaFleur said.; Jordon Riley (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Achilles); practice: Limited. The Packers activated Riley (Achilles) from the active/PUP list Saturday.; Johnathan Baldwin II (IR) — ir; Warren Brinson (IR) — Green Bay placed Brinson (calf/groin) on injured reserve Saturday.; Collin Oliver (IR-R) — Oliver is dealing with Achilles and calf injuries. and is considered week-to-week, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Thomas Yassmin (IR) — Green Bay reverted Yassmin (undisclosed) to injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Aaron Banks (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited. Banks (knee/toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Lions, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Zach Bako-Bewele (IR) — The Packers placed Bako-Bewele (knee) on injured reserve Monday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Jayden Reed (IR) — The Packers are expected to place Reed (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Edgerrin Cooper (IR) — Cooper (Achilles) was placed on injured reserve by the Packers on Tuesday.; Chris Brooks (IR) — The Packers placed Brooks (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Skyy Moore (IR) — The Packers placed Moore (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Benjamin St-Juste (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Hamstring); practice: Limited. questionable; Javon Hargrave (IR) — The Packers placed Hargrave (Achilles) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jonathan Ford (IR) — The Packers placed Ford (calf) on injured reserve Saturday.; Bo Melton (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Back); practice: Limited. Melton (back) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Lions, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Zaire Franklin (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Shin); practice: DNP. Franklin (shin) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Lions, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.

Detroit Lions: Giovanni Manu (NFI-R) — The Lions moved Manu (knee) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday.; Kerby Joseph (PUP-R) — Lions head coach Dan Campbell stated Kerby (knee) "is in a good headspace" and expects the 25-year-old to play at some point this season, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.; Kendrick Law (IR); Isiah Pacheco (IR) — Pacheco (back) underwent surgery Monday and is expected to be out for a significant amount of time, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.; Payton Turner (IR) — ir; Damone Clark (IR) — Detroit placed Clark (undisclosed) on its injured reserve list Tuesday.; Avonte Maddox (IR) — The Lions placed Maddox (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Ben Bartch (IR) — The Lions placed Bartch (foot) on injured reserve Friday.; Thomas Harper (IR) — The Lions placed Harper (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Tom Kennedy (IR) — The Lions placed Kennedy (knee) on injured reserve Friday.; Devin White (IR) — The Lions placed White (forearm) on injured reserve Friday.; Cade Mays (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Wrist); practice: Full.; Brian Branch (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Achilles); practice: Full.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET

    7.78 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 1485 passing yards, completed 67% of his passes and averaged 7.78 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 12-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

  • Jordan Love is the projected starting quarterback for GB

    7.48 Y/A

    Through 6 games in 2026, Jordan Love threw for 1684 passing yards, completed 60% of his passes and averaged 7.48 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3381 yards, completed 66.3% and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, 23-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 11-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.

TRENCHES

  • DET: 114.2 rushing yards per game to GB's 59.8

    54.4 YPG

    Green Bay runs for just 59.8 yards a game over 6 games, half its 119.8 from last season. Detroit is at 114.2, near its 120.1 a year ago. A drop that steep suggests Green Bay has shifted away from the run or struggled to establish it, and some recovery is likely. Detroit's ground game is stable, so in this matchup the Lions are the team more likely to control things on the ground.

  • DET: 4.18 yards per rush attempt to GB's 2.8

    1.38 Y/C

    GB is at 2.8 yards per rush attempt over 6 games; DET is at 4.18 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 4.21 over 17 games and DET at 4.52 over 17 games.

PASS RUSH

  • DET: 4 sacks recorded per game to GB's 2.5

    1.5 SACKS

    Detroit is at 4 sacks a game over 5 games, while Green Bay records 2.5 across 6. Both rushes get home, Detroit's more often, though a five-game rate can drop once lines adjust. For Packers at Lions, the pressure gap points at Green Bay's quarterback, which pairs awkwardly with the Lions' weak pass defense numbers and makes the Packers' passing game a volatile read.

  • GB: 11.3 sack yards lost per game to DET's 17.4

    6.1 YDS

    GB is at 11.3 sack yards lost per game over 6 games; DET is at 17.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 16.3 over 17 games and DET at 20.3 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • DET: 32.8 points per game to GB's 21.2

    11.6 PPG

    Detroit is scoring 32.8 points a game over 5 games, up from 28.3 last season, while Green Bay is at 21.2 over 6, a bit under its 23. Detroit's offense was already strong and has climbed further, so some cooling is reasonable but it remains elite. At home, the Lions dictate pace, and the Packers will need to score more than they have been to keep up.

  • GB @ DET carries a 54.5 market total

    54.5

    The market expects this one to be the shootout of the slate, 11 points above the 43.5 median across 13 games. A total that high says both offenses are expected to score in bunches, with touchdowns rather than field goals. For it to crack, drives would have to stall in the red zone or the game would have to slow down early. If you like the under, the case rests on an early stretch of punts and field goals.

  • GB: 20.8 points allowed per game to DET's 29.6

    8.8 PPG

    GB is at 20.8 points allowed per game over 6 games; DET is at 29.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 21.2 over 17 games and DET at 24.3 over 17 games.

  • DET: 66.4 offensive plays per game to GB's 60.7

    5.7 PLAYS

    GB is at 60.7 offensive plays per game over 6 games; DET is at 66.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 59.4 over 17 games and DET at 62.5 over 17 games.

  • DET: 30:14 time of possession per game to GB's 28:03

    2:11 TOP

    GB is at 28:03 time of possession per game over 6 games; DET is at 30:14 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 29:48 over 17 games and DET at 30:33 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • DET: 0.2 turnovers committed per game to GB's 1.17

    0.97 TO

    GB is at 1.17 turnovers committed per game over 6 games; DET is at 0.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 0.76 over 17 games and DET at 0.88 over 17 games.

  • GB: 1.83 takeaways per game to DET's 1

    0.83 TO

    GB is at 1.83 takeaways per game over 6 games; DET is at 1 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

  • DET: 0 interceptions thrown per game to GB's 0.67

    0.67 INT

    GB is at 0.67 interceptions thrown per game over 6 games; DET is at 0 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 0.41 over 17 games and DET at 0.47 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • DET: 5.94 yards per play to GB's 5.4

    0.54 Y/P

    Detroit gains 5.94 yards a snap over 5 games, almost the same as last season's 5.97, so this is who it is. Green Bay is at 5.4, a small drop from 5.61. Jared Goff threw touchdowns of 39 to Jameson Williams and 38 to Sam LaPorta last game, while Jordan Love's longest gains topped out at 28. Detroit's edge has held across two seasons, and Green Bay will need to match its explosive plays in Detroit.

RED ZONE

  • DET: 77.3% red-zone scoring rate to GB's 50%

    27.3 PP

    Detroit scores on 77.3% of red-zone trips over 5 games, up from 62.5% last season. Green Bay sits at 50%, down from 57.6%. Both are pushed to extremes and red-zone rates swing on a handful of plays, so expect the gap to narrow. Detroit still has the edge in converting drives into touchdowns, which favors the Lions in a close game at home.

  • DET: 4.4 red-zone trips per game to GB's 3.67

    0.73 TRIPS

    GB is at 3.67 red-zone trips per game over 6 games; DET is at 4.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 3.47 over 17 games and DET at 3.76 over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • DET: 114.2 rush yards a game to GB's 59.8

    114.2 VS 59.8

    Green Bay runs for just 59.8 yards a game over six games, half its 119.8 last season, while Detroit is at 114.2, close to its 120.1. The Packers lean on passing when the run isn't there, and Detroit can hold a steady ground game. A drop that steep from last season suggests Green Bay's number has room to bounce back. If the Packers can't run, Detroit's defense knows what's coming.

COVERAGE

  • GB: 193.3 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 297.4

    104.1 YPG

    GB is at 193.3 passing yards allowed per game over 6 games; DET is at 297.4 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

  • GB: 4.63 yards per play allowed to DET's 5.66

    1.03 Y/P

    Green Bay allows 4.63 yards per play over 6 games, while Detroit allows 5.66 across 5. Yards per play strips out some game-script noise, so the Packers' edge looks like a real gap in defense quality. For Packers at Lions, Green Bay's offence should be more efficient per snap, though Detroit's sack rate adds risk to any long drive.

  • GB: 43.4% third downs allowed to DET's 50.7%

    7.3 PP

    GB is at 43.4% third downs allowed over 6 games; DET is at 50.7% over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • GB lead the series with DET since 2025

    2-0 SERIES

    Green Bay won both meetings last season, and neither was a coin flip: a 27-13 win at home in Sep and a 31-24 win in Detroit on Thanksgiving. The road result matters most here, since this game is back in Detroit and the Packers already won there by a touchdown. Two games is a small sample and the fact sheet carries nothing on what has changed for either roster since. Look at how each side is playing this season before leaning on last year's sweep.

REPLACEMENT

  • Luke Musgrave (TE) is pup-r for GB

    PUP-R

    Musgrave is on the physically unable to perform list with a neck injury, and Matt LaFleur said Thursday it is tough to say whether he plays this season. That is an open-ended timeline. The Packers' other tight ends carry the load against Detroit, and bettors should not expect Musgrave back anytime soon.

  • Micah Parsons (DE) is pup-r for GB

    PUP-R

    Parsons is on the physically unable to perform list with a knee injury, and Matt LaFleur said he would not practice in Week 7 because he still has hurdles to clear. He is the Packers' top pass rusher, so his absence is a real hit to their defense. Against Detroit, Green Bay has to generate pressure without him.

  • Kerby Joseph (S) is pup-r for DET

    PUP-R

    Joseph is on the physically unable to perform list with a knee injury, and Dan Campbell said he expects the 25-year-old to play at some point this season. That is a hopeful tone with no firm date. The Lions' secondary stays without him against Green Bay.

  • Skyy Moore (WR) is on injured reserve for GB

    IR

    Green Bay placed Moore on injured reserve Oct 17 with an ankle injury, so he is out for the trip to Detroit. He was a depth receiver, so the Packers' targets stay with their regular pass catchers. This barely moves the matchup.

  • Tom Kennedy (WR) is on injured reserve for DET

    IR

    Kennedy is out with a knee injury after the Lions moved him to injured reserve on Friday, Oct 17. IR means he misses this game against Green Bay and at least several more after it. The sheet does not say what his role in the offense was or who takes his snaps, so price this as a depth move at receiver for Detroit rather than a shift in the game.

  • Javon Hargrave (DT) is on injured reserve for GB

    IR

    Hargrave is out after the Packers put him on injured reserve Saturday, Oct 18, with an Achilles injury. Achilles injuries are usually long recoveries, so assume he is gone for a good while, and certainly for this game at Detroit. The sheet does not name a replacement, so Green Bay's interior line is thinner against a Lions offense that is comfortable running between the tackles.

  • Devin White (LB) is on injured reserve for DET

    IR

    The Lions placed White (forearm) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Oct 17.

  • Jonathan Ford (DT) is on injured reserve for GB

    IR

    The Packers placed Ford (calf) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 18.

  • Ben Bartch (G) is on injured reserve for DET

    IR

    The Lions placed Bartch (foot) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Oct 17.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Zaire Franklin

    Out

    Shin · Did not practice · Out

  • Cade Mays

    Questionable

    Wrist · Full practice · Questionable

  • Benjamin St-Juste

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Brian Branch

    Questionable

    Achilles · Full practice · Questionable

  • Bo Melton

    Questionable

    Back · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Jordon Riley

    Questionable

    Achilles · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Aaron Banks

    Questionable

    Knee, Toe · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Christian Watson

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Matthew Golden

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Brandon Cisse

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Anthony Campbell

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Savion Williams

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Rock Ya-Sin

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jordan Love

    FP

    Full practice

  • Lukas Van Ness

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • DET has 7 more days of rest

    7d vs 14d

    Detroit is coming off its bye with 14 days of rest, and Green Bay is on a standard week. The Lions get the fresher legs and an extra week to game plan for a division rival, at home. Bye-week edges are modest on their own, so fold it in with health and matchups.

  • GB (4-2) at DET (3-2), a division game

    +14 PT GAP

    Green Bay has won three straight but is only +2 on the year, so the 4-2 record rests on close games. Detroit is 3-2, +16 and 2-0 at home, the stronger profile of the two by margin. The Packers are 2-1 on the road, so travel has not slowed them. In a division game, Detroit's home record and better margin carry more weight than Green Bay's streak.

STREAK

  • GB has won 3 straight

    W3

    GB has won three straight and sits 4-2 heading to DET. Three wins is a short run, and the sheet doesn't say who they came against. Streaks this short tend to say more about recent results than about a team's level, so lean on the full 4-2 record and how GB matches up with DET more than on the streak itself.

AFTER GARY

  • DET -3.5 → -3.5

    GARY +0.46PP

    Gary's number was -3.5; the market closed at -3.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: caesars, draftkings, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    TUCKER KRAFTRECEPTIONS OVER 4.5
    NFLGreen Bay Packers· -114

    Tucker Kraft
    Receptions over 4.5

    -114 · LOST · ACTUAL 4

    Green Bay Packers

    Tight ends have done more damage to Detroit's defense than any other position: 51 catches and 9 touchdowns in five games. Kraft is the only tight end Green Bay has left, with Musgrave on PUP and Yassmin on IR. With Reed and Moore also out, Love's short throws go to Kraft or the backs. Kraft has seen 8, 5, 7 and 8 targets the last four weeks and caught five or six in each of the last three.

    The likely script helps him. Detroit lays 3.5 at home, and its rush lands 7 to 12 QB hits a week, so Love will need throws that come out fast. Detroit is also thin at linebacker with White and Clark on IR, which puts the underneath coverage on players who haven't held up there. Five catches is the number at -114, and Kraft's normal role gets there.

    What beats it: if Branch plays, he can carry Kraft in the spots where tight ends have been feasting. If Jacobs gets the run game going and Green Bay controls the clock, the pass count drops. And if Love keeps hunting Golden and Watson downfield against a secondary that has given up 974 yards to wideouts, the check-down to Kraft never comes.

  • GARY'S PICK
    JAHMYR GIBBSRUSHING YARDS OVER 93.5
    NFLDetroit Lions· -113

    Jahmyr Gibbs
    Rushing Yards over 93.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 116

    Detroit Lions

    This is the matchup Detroit will lean on. Green Bay has lost Hargrave and Ford to IR, Parsons still hasn't played, and Franklin is out after playing every snap last week. That leaves McDuffie and Hopper at linebacker and Riley playing for the first time since tearing an Achilles. The Lions come off a bye, at home and favored. When they've played from in front, Gibbs has carried 20 to 29 times: 156 yards against New Orleans, 99 against the Jets, 151 at Arizona. Ford Field has been his best setting.

    Green Bay has given up 9 rushing touchdowns to backs and let Atlanta run for 242. Detroit's line has run well without Bartch since Week 3, so his absence is already in the numbers. With two weeks of rest and a front this thin across from him, 93.5 is a number Gibbs clears on volume if the game goes the way the spread says.

    What beats it: the game script. In the two games Detroit trailed, at Buffalo and at Carolina, Gibbs got 16 and 15 carries and finished near 50 yards while Goff threw 38 and 52 times. Green Bay also held Dallas to 48 rushing yards last week without Hargrave and Ford, and a lopsided lead could hand the late carries to Vaki.

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