Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
O/U 55.5 · SPREAD Detroit Lions -3.5 · Ford Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Detroit Lions -3.5 -108
- Published odds
- -108
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 17-20
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 65 moves| Market | Opened Oct 19 6:00 AM | Close Sun 4:13 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Detroit Lions -3.5 (+105) | Detroit Lions -4 (-110) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 52.5 (-108) | 55.5 (-108) | +3 |
| MONEYLINE | Detroit Lions -175 | Detroit Lions -210 | −35 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 19 6:00 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (+105) | 52.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 19 6:30 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 19 9:31 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-108) | 52.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145 |
| Oct 19 10:01 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-108) | 53 (-108) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145 |
| Oct 19 11:01 AM | Detroit Lions -3 (-118) | 52.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 19 11:31 AM | Detroit Lions -3 (-112) | 53 (-108) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 19 2:01 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-108) | 53 (-108) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +138 |
| Oct 19 2:31 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-108) | 53 (-108) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 19 3:31 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-110) | 53 (-108) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 19 4:01 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-108) | 53 (-108) | Detroit Lions -160 · Green Bay Packers +135 |
| Oct 19 5:15 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-110) | 52.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -160 · Green Bay Packers +135 |
| Oct 19 5:25 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-110) | 53 (-108) | Detroit Lions -160 · Green Bay Packers +135 |
| Oct 19 6:36 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +138 |
| Oct 19 9:54 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-112) | 53.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +138 |
| Oct 19 10:24 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-112) | 53.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 20 12:25 AM | Detroit Lions -3 (-112) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 20 6:00 AM | Detroit Lions -3 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 20 6:31 AM | Detroit Lions -3 (-112) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 20 8:38 AM | Detroit Lions -3 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 20 10:01 AM | Detroit Lions -3 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 20 10:44 AM | Detroit Lions -3 (-108) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 20 12:45 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Oct 20 1:46 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-112) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145 |
| Oct 20 3:47 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-112) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +150 |
| Oct 20 4:47 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-118) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145 |
| Thu 9:00 AM | Detroit Lions -3 (-118) | 53.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145 |
| Thu 9:56 AM | Detroit Lions -3 (-118) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145 |
| Thu 12:28 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -185 · Green Bay Packers +150 |
| Thu 12:58 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-118) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Thu 3:29 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-118) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Thu 6:43 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-118) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Fri 10:01 AM | Detroit Lions -3 (-118) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -165 · Green Bay Packers +140 |
| Fri 3:02 PM | Detroit Lions -3 (-118) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145 |
| Fri 9:00 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -175 · Green Bay Packers +145 |
| Sat 12:32 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -185 · Green Bay Packers +150 |
| Sat 1:02 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -185 · Green Bay Packers +150 |
| Sat 7:03 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 54 (-110) | Detroit Lions -185 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sat 7:33 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sat 8:34 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sat 9:04 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sat 9:34 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165 |
| Sat 10:04 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-108) | 55 (-108) | Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165 |
| Sat 10:34 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55 (-108) | Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165 |
| Sun 12:34 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55 (-110) | Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +160 |
| Sun 4:45 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-108) | 55 (-110) | Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165 |
| Sun 6:30 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165 |
| Sun 7:41 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-108) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +165 |
| Sun 8:12 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-108) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +160 |
| Sun 9:42 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-108) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +160 |
| Sun 10:20 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +160 |
| Sun 10:50 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sun 11:20 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +160 |
| Sun 11:30 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55 (-120) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sun 11:41 AM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sun 12:51 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -200 · Green Bay Packers +160 |
| Sun 1:22 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +160 |
| Sun 1:53 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-112) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +160 |
| Sun 2:03 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sun 3:03 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sun 3:13 PM | Detroit Lions -3.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sun 3:23 PM | Detroit Lions -4 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sun 3:33 PM | Detroit Lions -4 (-110) | 55 (-120) | Detroit Lions -190 · Green Bay Packers +155 |
| Sun 3:43 PM | Detroit Lions -4 (-108) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -210 · Green Bay Packers +170 |
| Sun 3:53 PM | Detroit Lions -4 (-108) | 55 (-118) | Detroit Lions -210 · Green Bay Packers +170 |
| Sun 4:03 PM | Detroit Lions -4 (-108) | 55 (-112) | Detroit Lions -210 · Green Bay Packers +170 |
| CLOSESun 4:13 PM | Detroit Lions -4 (-110) | 55.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -210 · Green Bay Packers +170 |
The read
The Packers walk into Ford Field off a 4-2 start, and the Lions come out of their bye at home in a 4:25 division game on FOX. The record says Green Bay. The matchup says Detroit.
Detroit's offense is the best unit on the field, and it hasn't had an off week: 26 or more points in all five games, 4-for-4 in the red zone last time out, and Goff without an interception in 191 attempts. It lives in the middle of the field through Gibbs, LaPorta and St. Brown, which is exactly where Green Bay is thinnest. Parsons hasn't played. Hargrave, Ford and Cooper are on IR. Now Franklin, an every-snap linebacker last week, is out, so McDuffie and Hopper start and Riley plays for the first time since tearing an Achilles. The Packers did hold Dallas to 48 rushing yards without Hargrave and Ford, so this isn't a collapse. But Franklin's absence lands right where the Lions attack.
Green Bay's case is real. Detroit's defense has allowed 469, 446 and 445 yards and 24 or more points in four of five games, and Golden and Watson create big plays. But Branch and Ya-Sin return to that secondary, and the Lions' rush lands 7 to 12 QB hits every week. Love took 15 and 12 in the Packers' two losses.
The bigger problem is finishing drives. Green Bay has never scored more than two red-zone touchdowns in a game and has topped 23 points once, against Tyson Bagent. Jacobs returns to a run game where Lloyd has 122 yards on 48 carries. A first game back, with the workload coming from a single report, doesn't move this much.
Ignore the records. Two of the Packers' wins came against backup quarterbacks, and they've scored about as many points as they've allowed. Ignore Goff's clean turnover sheet too, because nothing is due in either direction.
The risk is plain: a Lions win by exactly 3 loses this ticket, and Detroit's defense can give up a late backdoor score. It's a lean, not a hammer. But the gap is in finishing drives, and it points to Detroit.
Injuries noted
Green Bay Packers: Luke Musgrave (PUP-R) — Packers head coach Matt Lafleur said Thursday it's "tough to say" whether Musgrave (neck) plays this season, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Micah Parsons (PUP-R) — Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said that Parsons (knee) won't practice in Week 7, Weston Hodkiewicz of the team's official site reports. "He has to clear some hurdles yet before we get to that point," LaFleur said.; Jordon Riley (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Achilles); practice: Limited. The Packers activated Riley (Achilles) from the active/PUP list Saturday.; Johnathan Baldwin II (IR) — ir; Warren Brinson (IR) — Green Bay placed Brinson (calf/groin) on injured reserve Saturday.; Collin Oliver (IR-R) — Oliver is dealing with Achilles and calf injuries. and is considered week-to-week, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Thomas Yassmin (IR) — Green Bay reverted Yassmin (undisclosed) to injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Aaron Banks (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Knee); practice: Limited. Banks (knee/toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Lions, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Zach Bako-Bewele (IR) — The Packers placed Bako-Bewele (knee) on injured reserve Monday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Jayden Reed (IR) — The Packers are expected to place Reed (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Edgerrin Cooper (IR) — Cooper (Achilles) was placed on injured reserve by the Packers on Tuesday.; Chris Brooks (IR) — The Packers placed Brooks (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Skyy Moore (IR) — The Packers placed Moore (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Benjamin St-Juste (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Hamstring); practice: Limited. questionable; Javon Hargrave (IR) — The Packers placed Hargrave (Achilles) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jonathan Ford (IR) — The Packers placed Ford (calf) on injured reserve Saturday.; Bo Melton (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Back); practice: Limited. Melton (back) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Lions, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Zaire Franklin (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Shin); practice: DNP. Franklin (shin) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Lions, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
Detroit Lions: Giovanni Manu (NFI-R) — The Lions moved Manu (knee) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday.; Kerby Joseph (PUP-R) — Lions head coach Dan Campbell stated Kerby (knee) "is in a good headspace" and expects the 25-year-old to play at some point this season, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.; Kendrick Law (IR); Isiah Pacheco (IR) — Pacheco (back) underwent surgery Monday and is expected to be out for a significant amount of time, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.; Payton Turner (IR) — ir; Damone Clark (IR) — Detroit placed Clark (undisclosed) on its injured reserve list Tuesday.; Avonte Maddox (IR) — The Lions placed Maddox (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Ben Bartch (IR) — The Lions placed Bartch (foot) on injured reserve Friday.; Thomas Harper (IR) — The Lions placed Harper (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Tom Kennedy (IR) — The Lions placed Kennedy (knee) on injured reserve Friday.; Devin White (IR) — The Lions placed White (forearm) on injured reserve Friday.; Cade Mays (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Wrist); practice: Full.; Brian Branch (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Achilles); practice: Full.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET
7.78 Y/AThrough 5 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 1485 passing yards, completed 67% of his passes and averaged 7.78 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 12-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.
Jordan Love is the projected starting quarterback for GB
7.48 Y/AThrough 6 games in 2026, Jordan Love threw for 1684 passing yards, completed 60% of his passes and averaged 7.48 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3381 yards, completed 66.3% and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, 23-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 11-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.
TRENCHES
DET: 114.2 rushing yards per game to GB's 59.8
54.4 YPGGreen Bay runs for just 59.8 yards a game over 6 games, half its 119.8 from last season. Detroit is at 114.2, near its 120.1 a year ago. A drop that steep suggests Green Bay has shifted away from the run or struggled to establish it, and some recovery is likely. Detroit's ground game is stable, so in this matchup the Lions are the team more likely to control things on the ground.
DET: 4.18 yards per rush attempt to GB's 2.8
1.38 Y/CGB is at 2.8 yards per rush attempt over 6 games; DET is at 4.18 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 4.21 over 17 games and DET at 4.52 over 17 games.
PASS RUSH
DET: 4 sacks recorded per game to GB's 2.5
1.5 SACKSDetroit is at 4 sacks a game over 5 games, while Green Bay records 2.5 across 6. Both rushes get home, Detroit's more often, though a five-game rate can drop once lines adjust. For Packers at Lions, the pressure gap points at Green Bay's quarterback, which pairs awkwardly with the Lions' weak pass defense numbers and makes the Packers' passing game a volatile read.
GB: 11.3 sack yards lost per game to DET's 17.4
6.1 YDSGB is at 11.3 sack yards lost per game over 6 games; DET is at 17.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 16.3 over 17 games and DET at 20.3 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
DET: 32.8 points per game to GB's 21.2
11.6 PPGDetroit is scoring 32.8 points a game over 5 games, up from 28.3 last season, while Green Bay is at 21.2 over 6, a bit under its 23. Detroit's offense was already strong and has climbed further, so some cooling is reasonable but it remains elite. At home, the Lions dictate pace, and the Packers will need to score more than they have been to keep up.
GB @ DET carries a 54.5 market total
54.5The market expects this one to be the shootout of the slate, 11 points above the 43.5 median across 13 games. A total that high says both offenses are expected to score in bunches, with touchdowns rather than field goals. For it to crack, drives would have to stall in the red zone or the game would have to slow down early. If you like the under, the case rests on an early stretch of punts and field goals.
GB: 20.8 points allowed per game to DET's 29.6
8.8 PPGGB is at 20.8 points allowed per game over 6 games; DET is at 29.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 21.2 over 17 games and DET at 24.3 over 17 games.
DET: 66.4 offensive plays per game to GB's 60.7
5.7 PLAYSGB is at 60.7 offensive plays per game over 6 games; DET is at 66.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 59.4 over 17 games and DET at 62.5 over 17 games.
DET: 30:14 time of possession per game to GB's 28:03
2:11 TOPGB is at 28:03 time of possession per game over 6 games; DET is at 30:14 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 29:48 over 17 games and DET at 30:33 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
DET: 0.2 turnovers committed per game to GB's 1.17
0.97 TOGB is at 1.17 turnovers committed per game over 6 games; DET is at 0.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 0.76 over 17 games and DET at 0.88 over 17 games.
GB: 1.83 takeaways per game to DET's 1
0.83 TOGB is at 1.83 takeaways per game over 6 games; DET is at 1 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
DET: 0 interceptions thrown per game to GB's 0.67
0.67 INTGB is at 0.67 interceptions thrown per game over 6 games; DET is at 0 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 0.41 over 17 games and DET at 0.47 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
DET: 5.94 yards per play to GB's 5.4
0.54 Y/PDetroit gains 5.94 yards a snap over 5 games, almost the same as last season's 5.97, so this is who it is. Green Bay is at 5.4, a small drop from 5.61. Jared Goff threw touchdowns of 39 to Jameson Williams and 38 to Sam LaPorta last game, while Jordan Love's longest gains topped out at 28. Detroit's edge has held across two seasons, and Green Bay will need to match its explosive plays in Detroit.
RED ZONE
DET: 77.3% red-zone scoring rate to GB's 50%
27.3 PPDetroit scores on 77.3% of red-zone trips over 5 games, up from 62.5% last season. Green Bay sits at 50%, down from 57.6%. Both are pushed to extremes and red-zone rates swing on a handful of plays, so expect the gap to narrow. Detroit still has the edge in converting drives into touchdowns, which favors the Lions in a close game at home.
DET: 4.4 red-zone trips per game to GB's 3.67
0.73 TRIPSGB is at 3.67 red-zone trips per game over 6 games; DET is at 4.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season GB was at 3.47 over 17 games and DET at 3.76 over 17 games.
MISMATCH
DET: 114.2 rush yards a game to GB's 59.8
114.2 VS 59.8Green Bay runs for just 59.8 yards a game over six games, half its 119.8 last season, while Detroit is at 114.2, close to its 120.1. The Packers lean on passing when the run isn't there, and Detroit can hold a steady ground game. A drop that steep from last season suggests Green Bay's number has room to bounce back. If the Packers can't run, Detroit's defense knows what's coming.
COVERAGE
GB: 193.3 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 297.4
104.1 YPGGB is at 193.3 passing yards allowed per game over 6 games; DET is at 297.4 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
GB: 4.63 yards per play allowed to DET's 5.66
1.03 Y/PGreen Bay allows 4.63 yards per play over 6 games, while Detroit allows 5.66 across 5. Yards per play strips out some game-script noise, so the Packers' edge looks like a real gap in defense quality. For Packers at Lions, Green Bay's offence should be more efficient per snap, though Detroit's sack rate adds risk to any long drive.
GB: 43.4% third downs allowed to DET's 50.7%
7.3 PPGB is at 43.4% third downs allowed over 6 games; DET is at 50.7% over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
GB lead the series with DET since 2025
2-0 SERIESGreen Bay won both meetings last season, and neither was a coin flip: a 27-13 win at home in Sep and a 31-24 win in Detroit on Thanksgiving. The road result matters most here, since this game is back in Detroit and the Packers already won there by a touchdown. Two games is a small sample and the fact sheet carries nothing on what has changed for either roster since. Look at how each side is playing this season before leaning on last year's sweep.
REPLACEMENT
Luke Musgrave (TE) is pup-r for GB
PUP-RMusgrave is on the physically unable to perform list with a neck injury, and Matt LaFleur said Thursday it is tough to say whether he plays this season. That is an open-ended timeline. The Packers' other tight ends carry the load against Detroit, and bettors should not expect Musgrave back anytime soon.
Micah Parsons (DE) is pup-r for GB
PUP-RParsons is on the physically unable to perform list with a knee injury, and Matt LaFleur said he would not practice in Week 7 because he still has hurdles to clear. He is the Packers' top pass rusher, so his absence is a real hit to their defense. Against Detroit, Green Bay has to generate pressure without him.
Kerby Joseph (S) is pup-r for DET
PUP-RJoseph is on the physically unable to perform list with a knee injury, and Dan Campbell said he expects the 25-year-old to play at some point this season. That is a hopeful tone with no firm date. The Lions' secondary stays without him against Green Bay.
Skyy Moore (WR) is on injured reserve for GB
IRGreen Bay placed Moore on injured reserve Oct 17 with an ankle injury, so he is out for the trip to Detroit. He was a depth receiver, so the Packers' targets stay with their regular pass catchers. This barely moves the matchup.
Tom Kennedy (WR) is on injured reserve for DET
IRKennedy is out with a knee injury after the Lions moved him to injured reserve on Friday, Oct 17. IR means he misses this game against Green Bay and at least several more after it. The sheet does not say what his role in the offense was or who takes his snaps, so price this as a depth move at receiver for Detroit rather than a shift in the game.
Javon Hargrave (DT) is on injured reserve for GB
IRHargrave is out after the Packers put him on injured reserve Saturday, Oct 18, with an Achilles injury. Achilles injuries are usually long recoveries, so assume he is gone for a good while, and certainly for this game at Detroit. The sheet does not name a replacement, so Green Bay's interior line is thinner against a Lions offense that is comfortable running between the tackles.
Devin White (LB) is on injured reserve for DET
IRThe Lions placed White (forearm) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Oct 17.
Jonathan Ford (DT) is on injured reserve for GB
IRThe Packers placed Ford (calf) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 18.
Ben Bartch (G) is on injured reserve for DET
IRThe Lions placed Bartch (foot) on injured reserve Friday. Reported Oct 17.
PRACTICE REPORT
Zaire Franklin
OutShin · Did not practice · Out
Cade Mays
QuestionableWrist · Full practice · Questionable
Benjamin St-Juste
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Brian Branch
QuestionableAchilles · Full practice · Questionable
Bo Melton
QuestionableBack · Limited practice · Questionable
Jordon Riley
QuestionableAchilles · Limited practice · Questionable
Aaron Banks
QuestionableKnee, Toe · Limited practice · Questionable
Christian Watson
LPLimited practice
Matthew Golden
LPLimited practice
Brandon Cisse
LPLimited practice
Anthony Campbell
LPLimited practice
Savion Williams
LPLimited practice
Rock Ya-Sin
FPFull practice
Jordan Love
FPFull practice
Lukas Van Ness
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
DET has 7 more days of rest
7d vs 14dDetroit is coming off its bye with 14 days of rest, and Green Bay is on a standard week. The Lions get the fresher legs and an extra week to game plan for a division rival, at home. Bye-week edges are modest on their own, so fold it in with health and matchups.
GB (4-2) at DET (3-2), a division game
+14 PT GAPGreen Bay has won three straight but is only +2 on the year, so the 4-2 record rests on close games. Detroit is 3-2, +16 and 2-0 at home, the stronger profile of the two by margin. The Packers are 2-1 on the road, so travel has not slowed them. In a division game, Detroit's home record and better margin carry more weight than Green Bay's streak.
STREAK
GB has won 3 straight
W3GB has won three straight and sits 4-2 heading to DET. Three wins is a short run, and the sheet doesn't say who they came against. Streaks this short tend to say more about recent results than about a team's level, so lean on the full 4-2 record and how GB matches up with DET more than on the streak itself.
AFTER GARY
DET -3.5 → -3.5
GARY +0.46PPGary's number was -3.5; the market closed at -3.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: caesars, draftkings, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKTUCKER KRAFTRECEPTIONS OVER 4.5
Tight ends have done more damage to Detroit's defense than any other position: 51 catches and 9 touchdowns in five games. Kraft is the only tight end Green Bay has left, with Musgrave on PUP and Yassmin on IR. With Reed and Moore also out, Love's short throws go to Kraft or the backs. Kraft has seen 8, 5, 7 and 8 targets the last four weeks and caught five or six in each of the last three.
The likely script helps him. Detroit lays 3.5 at home, and its rush lands 7 to 12 QB hits a week, so Love will need throws that come out fast. Detroit is also thin at linebacker with White and Clark on IR, which puts the underneath coverage on players who haven't held up there. Five catches is the number at -114, and Kraft's normal role gets there.
What beats it: if Branch plays, he can carry Kraft in the spots where tight ends have been feasting. If Jacobs gets the run game going and Green Bay controls the clock, the pass count drops. And if Love keeps hunting Golden and Watson downfield against a secondary that has given up 974 yards to wideouts, the check-down to Kraft never comes.
- GARY'S PICKJAHMYR GIBBSRUSHING YARDS OVER 93.5
This is the matchup Detroit will lean on. Green Bay has lost Hargrave and Ford to IR, Parsons still hasn't played, and Franklin is out after playing every snap last week. That leaves McDuffie and Hopper at linebacker and Riley playing for the first time since tearing an Achilles. The Lions come off a bye, at home and favored. When they've played from in front, Gibbs has carried 20 to 29 times: 156 yards against New Orleans, 99 against the Jets, 151 at Arizona. Ford Field has been his best setting.
Green Bay has given up 9 rushing touchdowns to backs and let Atlanta run for 242. Detroit's line has run well without Bartch since Week 3, so his absence is already in the numbers. With two weeks of rest and a front this thin across from him, 93.5 is a number Gibbs clears on volume if the game goes the way the spread says.
What beats it: the game script. In the two games Detroit trailed, at Buffalo and at Carolina, Gibbs got 16 and 15 carries and finished near 50 yards while Goff threw 38 and 52 times. Green Bay also held Dallas to 48 rushing yards last week without Hargrave and Ford, and a lopsided lead could hand the late carries to Vaki.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
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