Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
O/U 66.5 · SPREAD Detroit Lions -23.5 · State Farm Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Detroit Lions -5.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 45-21
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 60 moves| Market | Opened Oct 5 6:00 AM | Close Oct 11 4:17 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-102) | +1 |
| TOTAL | 54 (-110) | 55 (-108) | +1 |
| MONEYLINE | Detroit Lions -225 | Detroit Lions -235 | −10 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 5 6:00 AM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) | 54 (-110) | Detroit Lions -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188 |
| Oct 5 8:01 AM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-105) | 54 (-108) | Detroit Lions -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180 |
| Oct 5 3:57 PM | Detroit Lions -4 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180 |
| Oct 5 6:05 PM | Detroit Lions -4 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180 |
| Oct 5 6:22 PM | Detroit Lions -4 (-110) | 54.5 (-112) | Detroit Lions -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185 |
| Oct 5 6:33 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54 (-112) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 5 6:43 PM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) | 54 (-118) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Oct 5 8:03 PM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) | 54 (-112) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Oct 5 8:54 PM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +190 |
| Oct 5 10:24 PM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) | 54 (-112) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Oct 5 10:54 PM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) | 54 (-118) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Oct 6 12:54 AM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) | 54 (-112) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 6 9:00 AM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Oct 6 11:42 AM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) | 54 (-120) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Oct 6 2:13 PM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Oct 6 6:02 PM | Detroit Lions -4.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Oct 6 7:02 PM | Detroit Lions -5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 7 6:00 AM | Detroit Lions -5 (-110) | 54 (-118) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 7 7:30 AM | Detroit Lions -5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Oct 7 8:30 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 7 1:33 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 7 2:33 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +210 |
| Oct 7 3:33 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 7 10:07 PM | Detroit Lions -5 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 8 6:00 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 8 8:00 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195 |
| Oct 8 9:00 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-110) | 55 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 8 11:31 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 9 11:31 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 9 1:01 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 9 8:03 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 10 5:00 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 10 8:00 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 10 12:08 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 10 5:39 PM | Detroit Lions -5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 5:00 AM | Detroit Lions -5 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 6:00 AM | Detroit Lions -5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 7:00 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 7:21 AM | Detroit Lions -5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 7:31 AM | Detroit Lions -5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 7:41 AM | Detroit Lions -5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 8:42 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 9:00 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 9:11 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 10:00 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 10:20 AM | Detroit Lions -5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 10:31 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +210 |
| Oct 11 11:11 AM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +210 |
| Oct 11 1:24 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +210 |
| Oct 11 1:44 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 2:15 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 55 (-110) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 2:25 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 55 (-110) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 2:35 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-112) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 2:45 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-110) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 2:55 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-112) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 3:06 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-120) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 3:16 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-112) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 3:26 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-112) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 3:36 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 54.5 (-120) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| Oct 11 3:46 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-105) | 55 (-108) | Detroit Lions -250 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
| CLOSEOct 11 4:17 PM | Detroit Lions -5.5 (-102) | 55 (-108) | Detroit Lions -235 · Arizona Cardinals +200 |
The read
I’m backing Detroit -5.5 because its passing game is the most dependable unit in this matchup. Goff has nine touchdown passes without an interception through four games, and Arizona has allowed 11 passing touchdowns and 9.1 yards per attempt.
Detroit can move the ball even if the running game remains uneven. At the other end, the Lions have 15 sacks and now face Arizona’s replacement starters at left tackle and right guard.
That gives Detroit a credible way to stall possessions and build a lead. McBride against Detroit’s shaky coverage is the biggest danger, but I trust Goff and the Lions’ offense to create enough separation to win by at least six.
Injuries noted
Detroit Lions: Giovanni Manu (NFI-R) — The Lions moved Manu (knee) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday.; Brian Branch (PUP-R) — Branch (Achilles) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Cardinals.; Kerby Joseph (PUP-R) — The Lions placed Joseph (knee) on the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Kendrick Law (IR); Cade Mays (IR-R) — Mays (wrist) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cardinals.; Isiah Pacheco (IR) — Pacheco (back) underwent surgery Monday and is expected to be out for a significant amount of time, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.; Payton Turner (IR) — ir; Damone Clark (IR) — Detroit placed Clark (undisclosed) on its injured reserve list Tuesday.; Avonte Maddox (IR) — The Lions placed Maddox (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Ben Bartch (Out) — Bartch (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Arizona.; Thomas Harper (IR) — The Lions placed Harper (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Rock Ya-Sin (Out) — Ya-Sin (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Cardinals.; Tyleik Williams (Questionable) — questionable
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner (IR-R) — The Cardinals are placing Conner (foot) on injured reserve with a designation to return, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix reports.; Tip Reiman (PUP-R) — The Cardinals moved Reiman (ankle) from the active/PUP list to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Joey Blount (IR) — ir; Zachary Carter (IR-R) — The Cardinals placed Carter (knee) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Kaleb Proctor (IR); Chase Bisontis (IR) — ir; Trey Benson (IR) — Benson (knee) reverted to the Cardinals' injured reserve list Tuesday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.; Jameson Geers (IR) — ir; Isaiah Adams (IR) — The Cardinals placed Adams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Kitan Crawford (IR) — The Cardinals placed Crawford (ankle) on their injured reserve list Wednesday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Will Johnson (IR) — The Cardinals placed Johnson (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Andrew Wingard (Out) — Wingard (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Lions, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.; Hunter Long (IR) — The Cardinals placed Long (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Paris Johnson Jr. (IR) — The Cardinals placed Johnson (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Walter Nolen III (Questionable) — Nolen (calf) is questionable against the Lions on Sunday, Zach Gershman of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Karson Sharar (Questionable) — questionable; Marvin Harrison Jr. (Out) — A trade for Harrison will not be completed "until after Sunday's games are played," but the Cardinals "feel comfortable enough" knowing it will occur that they will deactivate him for Sunday's game against the Lions, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET
7.54 Y/AThrough 4 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 1214 passing yards, completed 67.7% of his passes and averaged 7.54 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
Jacoby Brissett is the projected starting quarterback for ARI
5.38 Y/AThrough 4 games in 2026, Jacoby Brissett threw for 818 passing yards, completed 67.8% of his passes and averaged 5.38 yards per attempt. Last season over 14 games he threw for 3366 yards, completed 64.9% and averaged 6.94 yards per attempt, 23-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-4 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.
PASS RUSH
DET: 3.75 sacks recorded per game to ARI's 2
1.75 SACKSDetroit is averaging 3.75 sacks a game over four games, ahead of Arizona at 2. The sheet does not say which lines Detroit has faced, so some of that rate could be schedule. Sack totals swing with opponents, and four games is a short run. Detroit's rush is the more likely of the two to create negative plays in this game.
ARI: 10.3 sack yards lost per game to DET's 16.3
6 YDSDET is at 16.3 sack yards lost per game over 4 games; ARI is at 10.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season DET was at 20.3 over 17 games and ARI at 24.9 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
DET @ ARI carries a 54.5 market total
54.5At 54.5, the market expects Detroit and Arizona to trade scores all game, 11 points more than the middle game on this 14-game slate. Nothing on the sheet explains why, so the number itself is the evidence: the market sees both defenses giving up points. For the under to have a chance, drives have to stall early and settle for field goals. Ask yourself whether you see two offenses running free or a game that slows down, and price it that way.
DET: 29.8 points per game to ARI's 21.8
8 PPGDET is at 29.8 points per game over 4 games; ARI is at 21.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season DET was at 28.3 over 17 games and ARI at 20.9 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
DET: 0 interceptions thrown per game to ARI's 1
1 INTDET is at 0 interceptions thrown per game over 4 games; ARI is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season DET was at 0.47 over 17 games and ARI at 0.65 over 17 games.
DET: 0.25 turnovers committed per game to ARI's 1
0.75 TODET is at 0.25 turnovers committed per game over 4 games; ARI is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season DET was at 0.88 over 17 games and ARI at 1.24 over 17 games.
ARI: 1.75 takeaways per game to DET's 1
0.75 TOArizona is forcing 1.75 turnovers a game, Detroit 1, both over four games. Turnovers are among the noisiest stats in football, and four games is not much to go on. Expect Arizona's rate to settle. For this game, it is a slight lean toward the Cardinals on the turnover battle, but not something to lean on hard.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
DET: 5.85 yards per play to ARI's 4.38
1.47 Y/PDetroit gains almost a yard and a half more per snap than Arizona, and its last game had 4 plays of 20 or more yards, led by Jared Goff's 57-yarder to Isaac TeSlaa and 49-yarder to Jameson Williams. Detroit sat at 5.97 last season, so 5.85 is normal for them. Arizona fell from 5.18 last season to 4.38 and leans on Jacoby Brissett throwing to Michael Wilson for its chunk plays. Detroit's big-play passing against an Arizona offense that moves in smaller steps is the matchup to price.
RED ZONE
DET: 72.2% red-zone scoring rate to ARI's 57.1%
15.1 PPDET is at 72.2% red-zone scoring rate over 4 games; ARI is at 57.1% over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season DET was at 62.5% over 17 games and ARI at 54.1% over 17 games.
DET: 4.5 red-zone trips per game to ARI's 3.5
1 TRIPSDET is at 4.5 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; ARI is at 3.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season DET was at 3.76 over 17 games and ARI at 3.59 over 17 games.
ARI: 69.2% red-zone scoring allowed to DET's 82.4%
13.1 PPDET is at 82.4% red-zone scoring allowed over 4 games; ARI is at 69.2% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 10.
MISMATCH
DET: 287.3 pass yards a game to ARI's 194.3
287.3 VS 194.3Detroit is throwing for 287.3 yards a game to Arizona's 194.3 over 4 games. Detroit is up from 253.1 last season, while Arizona has dropped hard from 232.6, so most of the gap comes from Arizona's slide. Expect Arizona's number to rise back toward last year. Arizona has to stay balanced and avoid falling behind early, because chasing Detroit is how this gap shows up on the scoreboard.
COVERAGE
ARI: 233.8 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 304
70.3 YPGArizona is allowing 233.8 passing yards a game, while Detroit is giving up 304, both over four games. Detroit's number is high, though pass yards allowed can climb when a defense is protecting a lead and opponents are forced to throw. Over four games both figures could shift. For this game, Arizona's passing attack has room to work against a Lions secondary that has given up a lot through the air.
ARI: 45.5% third downs allowed to DET's 52.8%
7.4 PPDET is at 52.8% third downs allowed over 4 games; ARI is at 45.5% over 4 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 10.
REPLACEMENT
Cade Mays (C) is ir-r for DET
IR-RMays is ruled out for Sunday against Arizona with a wrist injury while on the injured reserve return track. Detroit's center spot stays with the backup for another week.
Brian Branch (S) is pup-r for DET
PUP-RBranch is ruled out against Arizona while on the PUP list with an Achilles injury. He is one of Detroit's key defensive backs, and an Achilles injury usually means a long road back, so the Lions' secondary plays without him again.
Hunter Long (TE) is on injured reserve for ARI
IRLong is out against Detroit after the Cardinals moved him to injured reserve on Tuesday with a knee injury. Injured reserve means he cannot play this week and will miss a stretch of games after it. The sheet does not say who takes his tight end snaps, so check Arizona's depth chart before betting any Cardinals tight end prop.
Paris Johnson Jr. (OT) is on injured reserve for ARI
IRJohnson is out against Detroit after Arizona moved him to injured reserve Tuesday with a biceps injury. He is a starting tackle, and injured reserve rules him out for several weeks. Adams, a guard, also went on injured reserve Saturday, so Arizona will play the Lions with two linemen missing. Pass protection and the run game both take a hit.
Isaiah Adams (G) is on injured reserve for ARI
IRAdams is out against Detroit after Arizona placed him on injured reserve Saturday with an ankle injury. He is a guard. Johnson, a tackle, is also on injured reserve, so the Cardinals line will be thin against the Lions front. That makes it harder for Arizona to run the ball or give its quarterback time to throw.
PRACTICE REPORT
Ben Bartch
OutFoot · Did not practice · Out
Rock Ya-Sin
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Andrew Wingard
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Tyleik Williams
QuestionableFoot · Limited practice · Questionable
Walter Nolen III
QuestionableCalf · Limited practice · Questionable
Karson Sharar
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Budda Baker
FPFull practice
Jordan Burch
FPFull practice
Jeremiyah Love
FPFull practice
Josh Sweat
FPFull practice
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
FPFull practice
Isaac Seumalo
FPFull practice
DJ Wonnum
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
DET: 287.3 team passing yards per game to ARI's 194.3
93 YPGDetroit is throwing for 287.3 per game over four games, up from 253.1 last season. Arizona has dropped to 194.3 after 232.6 last year. The Lions look like a passing offense that has stepped up, while the Cardinals' fall is the bigger change and could reverse. Expect Detroit to dictate through the air, with Arizona's passing output a candidate to rise from here.
DET: 6.77 yards per pass attempt to ARI's 4.75
2.02 Y/ADetroit is getting 6.77 yards every time it throws, while Arizona's passing game is stuck at 4.75, well below last season's 5.61. Detroit is near its 7.09 from last season, so that level looks real. Arizona's drop is a 4-game sample and has room to bounce back some, but even last season's number trails Detroit by a lot. Detroit's passing efficiency should be the edge that shapes this game.
DET: 24.5 first downs per game to ARI's 19.8
4.8 FDDET is at 24.5 first downs per game over 4 games; ARI is at 19.8 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season DET was at 20.4 over 17 games and ARI at 19.5 over 17 games.
DET (2-2) at ARI (1-3)
-22 PT GAPDetroit is 2-2 at -8 and 0-2 on the road, so the record roughly matches the scoring and they have yet to win away. Arizona is 1-3 at -30, has lost 3 straight and is 0-1 at home in one game. The Cardinals' slide is backed by the margin. Detroit's road struggles are a two-game sample, which is too small to call a pattern.
DET: 56.8 penalty yards per game to ARI's 75
18.3 YDSDET is at 56.8 penalty yards per game over 4 games; ARI is at 75 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season DET was at 42.2 over 17 games and ARI at 49.5 over 17 games.
DET: 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game to ARI's 1
0.75 ATT/GDET is at 1.75 fourth-down attempts per game over 4 games; ARI is at 1 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season DET was at 1.82 over 17 games and ARI at 1.65 over 17 games.
STREAK
ARI has lost 3 straight
L3Arizona won once, then dropped three straight to sit at 1-3. The sheet does not say who beat them, so it is hard to judge how earned the slide is. Three games is a small sample. Hosting Detroit, the question is whether the line has moved too far off the recent losses.
AFTER GARY
DET -5.5 → -5.5
GARY +1.16PPGary's number was -5.5; the same book now shows -5.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 8, 2026 at 4:52 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJACOBY BRISSETTPASSING YARDS UNDER 266.5
I'm taking Brissett under 266.5 passing yards at -113. He's averaged 204.5 yards across four games in Arizona's current offense. Even his 52 attempts against San Francisco produced just 280 yards, which shows how much volume this line can demand.
The fresh losses of Paris Johnson Jr. and Isaiah Adams put replacement blockers against a Detroit front with 15 sacks through four games. I expect that pressure to encourage quick releases and interrupt drives.
Harrison's deactivation removes another option, although his five catches this season limit the weight I give that absence. The strongest contrary evidence is Detroit's coverage: it has allowed 327 passing yards per game across four contests. McBride and Wilson can exploit those openings, especially if Arizona spends the second half chasing Detroit.
- GARY'S PICKJACOBY BRISSETTPASSING ATTEMPTS OVER 36.5
I'm taking Brissett over 36.5 passing attempts at -121. Arizona's starting quarterback has averaged 38 attempts across four games this season, and my Detroit cover call puts Arizona in a position to throw while chasing points. Detroit's gaps between its linebackers and safeties give McBride and Wilson opportunities to sustain possessions through shorter completions.
Both have established workloads, with 45 and 44 targets respectively this season. The strongest objection is that trailing hasn't always produced enough attempts: Brissett threw 28 against Seattle and 35 against the Giants. Arizona's fresh losses at left tackle and right guard also expose him to Detroit's productive rush.
Sacks consume passing opportunities without counting toward this ticket.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery NFL game this dayThe NFL recordToday's NFL picksEvery sport this day