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NFL · Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

O/U 46.5 · SPREAD Detroit Lions -3.5 · Ford Field

GARY'S PICK
Vikings +3
NFL@ Lions· -110

Vikings
+3

-110 · LOST · MIN 15 · DET 19

Lions

The pick & result

Published pick
Minnesota Vikings +3 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Lost
Final score
15-19

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 69 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 25 7:53 PM
Close
Sun 12:43 PM
Move
SPREADDetroit Lions -3 (-108)Detroit Lions -3.5 (-102)+½
TOTAL46 (-110)46 (-110)Holds
MONEYLINEDetroit Lions -150Detroit Lions -190−40
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 25 7:53 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-108)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -150 · Minnesota Vikings +125
Oct 25 8:13 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-102)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -155 · Minnesota Vikings +130
Oct 25 8:23 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-108)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Minnesota Vikings +138
Oct 25 8:53 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Minnesota Vikings +135
Oct 25 9:23 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-108)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Minnesota Vikings +135
Oct 25 9:53 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Minnesota Vikings +135
Oct 25 10:53 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Minnesota Vikings +138
Oct 25 11:53 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Minnesota Vikings +138
Oct 26 12:23 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Minnesota Vikings +138
Oct 26 12:53 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Minnesota Vikings +140
Oct 26 6:00 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Minnesota Vikings +138
Oct 26 8:31 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +140
Oct 26 9:00 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Minnesota Vikings +140
Oct 26 9:31 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-110)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +140
Oct 26 10:31 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-112)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -165 · Minnesota Vikings +140
Oct 26 11:32 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Oct 26 3:33 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Oct 26 5:03 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-125)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Oct 26 5:15 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-130)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 27 6:00 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-125)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 27 8:31 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-130)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 27 9:31 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-125)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 27 12:01 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-130)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 27 1:01 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (+100)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 27 2:01 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Oct 27 3:01 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 27 4:02 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Oct 27 5:02 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 27 6:02 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (+100)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 27 9:05 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 27 11:05 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-130)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 28 12:06 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (+100)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 28 7:01 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-125)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 28 8:01 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-130)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 28 9:00 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Oct 28 10:01 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Oct 28 11:32 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-105)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Oct 28 1:48 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Oct 28 2:48 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-105)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Oct 28 4:48 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-105)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Thu 6:00 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-105)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Thu 8:30 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-105)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Thu 9:00 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Thu 2:48 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Thu 5:42 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Fri 9:00 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Fri 7:02 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Sat 4:45 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Sat 8:35 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Sat 9:05 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-105)45.5 (-108)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Sat 10:05 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Sat 11:05 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Sat 11:35 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Sun 6:00 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Sun 6:30 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Sun 7:01 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-125)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Sun 7:31 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-130)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155
Sun 8:31 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Sun 9:00 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Sun 9:17 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Sun 9:31 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Sun 10:11 AMDetroit Lions -3 (-125)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -185 · Minnesota Vikings +150
Sun 10:21 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Sun 10:31 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Sun 10:41 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Sun 10:51 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Sun 11:21 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-115)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Sun 11:32 AMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)45.5 (-110)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
Sun 12:00 PMDetroit Lions -3 (-118)46 (-108)Detroit Lions -175 · Minnesota Vikings +145
CLOSESun 12:43 PMDetroit Lions -3.5 (-102)46 (-110)Detroit Lions -190 · Minnesota Vikings +155

The read

Unbeaten Minnesota walks into Ford Field as a field-goal underdog against a Detroit team that's 3-0 at home, and the market is daring you to doubt the 6-0. I'll take the points.

Strip away the records and these teams grade out almost the same, snap for snap. Minnesota gains 4.8 yards a play and allows 4.5. Detroit gains 6.0 and allows 5.6. That's roughly +0.3 against +0.4, a coin flip on a neutral field, and -3 hands Detroit the full key number for home field. Point differential leans the other way: Vikings +51, Lions +19.

Detroit hasn't separated from anyone at home. The wins went 31-30 in overtime over the Saints, 31-24 over the Jets and 20-17 over the Packers, and two of those teams are 2-5. Against -3, that's a cover, a push and a loss.

Minnesota's games are slow and tight. Five of six finished under 40 total points, and the Vikings held the ball for more than 39 minutes twice. Will Reichard is 18-of-19 with makes from 52, 54, 55 and 56, so any drive past midfield is points. The Lions have fumbled 10 times and lost 3. They face a defense with 11 takeaways that has allowed 3 touchdowns on 13 red-zone trips.

The common opponents tilt Minnesota too. The Vikings held Tyler Shough to 96 passing yards in New Orleans; Shough threw for 410 at Ford Field. Detroit's nickel, Roger McCreary, is questionable with a foot injury. Christian Izien, next up, gave up 7 catches on 8 targets against the Jets.

The risk is real. Jared Goff handles the blitz, and the blitz is how Minnesota wins. Goff has been pressured on no more than 27% of dropbacks all season and has 0 interceptions in 223 attempts. Kyler Murray's offense has 4 touchdowns in four starts. The 6-0 also has some kicking luck baked in. A 20-17 final is very live, and that's a push.

Still, at the full 3, with a defense this stingy near the goal line in a short game, the points are worth more than the market is giving. Keep the stake small. If the 3 disappears, so do I.

Injuries noted

Minnesota Vikings: Jamal Adams (IR) — ir; Tyler Batty (IR) — The Vikings placed Batty (knee) on injured reserve Sunday.; Nick Samac (IR) — The Vikings placed Samac (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Josh Oliver (IR) — The Vikings placed Oliver (biceps) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Donovan Jackson (IR) — Jackson (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Vikings on Tuesday.; Michael Briscoe (Out) — The Vikings placed Briscoe (undisclosed) on their practice squad injured list Wednesday.; Jay Ward (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Harrison Smith (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Aaron Jones (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Brian O'Neill (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Christian Darrisaw (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Sat, Oct 31 DNP.; Gavin Bartholomew (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Joe Huber (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.

Detroit Lions: Giovanni Manu (NFI-R) — The Lions moved Manu (knee) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday.; Kerby Joseph (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Joseph (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Vikings.; Kendrick Law (IR); Isiah Pacheco (IR) — Lions coach Dan Campbell said Friday that Pacheco (back) has a chance to return in late December.; Payton Turner (IR) — ir; Damone Clark (IR) — Detroit placed Clark (undisclosed) on its injured reserve list Tuesday.; Avonte Maddox (IR) — The Lions placed Maddox (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Ben Bartch (IR) — The Lions placed Bartch (foot) on injured reserve Friday.; Thomas Harper (IR) — The Lions placed Harper (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Tom Kennedy (IR) — The Lions placed Kennedy (knee) on injured reserve Friday.; Devin White (IR) — The Lions placed White (forearm) on injured reserve Friday.; Roger McCreary (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: foot; practice by report day: Sat, Oct 31 Limited. McCreary (foot) is questionable for Sunday's Week 8 matchup against Minnesota.; DJ Wonnum (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Alim McNeill (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Penei Sewell (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Amon-Ra St. Brown (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Aidan Hutchinson (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jacob Saylors (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: neck; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jahmyr Gibbs (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Tyleik Williams (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: illness; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Jared Goff is the projected starting quarterback for DET

    8.02 Y/A

    Through 6 games in 2026, Jared Goff threw for 1788 passing yards, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 8.02 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4564 yards, completed 68% and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt, 34-8 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 14-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.

  • Kyler Murray is the projected starting quarterback for MIN

    6.5 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Kyler Murray threw for 812 passing yards, completed 66.4% of his passes and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt. Last season over 5 games he threw for 962 yards, completed 68.3% and averaged 5.97 yards per attempt, 6-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-2 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

PASS RUSH

  • DET: 2 sacks taken per game to MIN's 3

    1 SACKS

    MIN is at 3 sacks taken per game over 6 games; DET is at 2 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season MIN was at 4 over 17 games and DET at 3 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • MIN: 12.3 points allowed per game to DET's 27.5

    15.2 PPG

    Minnesota is giving up just 12.3 points a game over six games, a big drop from 19.6 last season, while Detroit is scoring 27.5, up from 24.3. This is a strength against strength matchup at Ford Field. A defense improving by that much in six games tends to drift back some, and DET's offense is the toughest test on that list. Bettors weighing the total have to decide which of these two six-game trends gives way first.

  • DET: 30.7 points per game to MIN's 20.8

    9.8 PPG

    MIN is at 20.8 points per game over 6 games; DET is at 30.7 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season MIN was at 20.2 over 17 games and DET at 28.3 over 17 games.

  • MIN: 32:43 time of possession per game to DET's 30:12

    2:31 TOP

    MIN is at 32:43 time of possession per game over 6 games; DET is at 30:12 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season MIN was at 28:20 over 17 games and DET at 30:33 over 17 games.

  • DET: 66.3 offensive plays per game to MIN's 60.5

    5.8 PLAYS

    MIN is at 60.5 offensive plays per game over 6 games; DET is at 66.3 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season MIN was at 56.1 over 17 games and DET at 62.5 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • MIN: 1.83 takeaways per game to DET's 1

    0.83 TO

    MIN is at 1.83 takeaways per game over 6 games; DET is at 1 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 31.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • DET: 6 yards per play to MIN's 4.65

    1.35 Y/P

    Detroit is gaining 6 yards a play, matching its 5.97 from last season, while Minnesota is at 4.65, close to its 4.82, so the gap is steady across two seasons. Both teams had four plays of 20-plus yards last game: Jared Goff hit Amon-Ra St. Brown for 40, and Kyler Murray ran for 35 for MIN. The difference is that Detroit's efficiency holds on every snap, not just the big ones. Bettors can trust the Lions' baseline more than MIN's.

RED ZONE

  • MIN: 23.1% red-zone scoring allowed to DET's 72%

    48.9 PP

    MIN is at 23.1% red-zone scoring allowed over 6 games; DET is at 72% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 31.

  • DET: 4.5 red-zone trips per game to MIN's 2.33

    2.17 TRIPS

    MIN is at 2.33 red-zone trips per game over 6 games; DET is at 4.5 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season MIN was at 3 over 17 games and DET at 3.76 over 17 games.

  • DET: 70.4% red-zone scoring rate to MIN's 50%

    20.4 PP

    MIN is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 6 games; DET is at 70.4% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season MIN was at 56.9% over 17 games and DET at 62.5% over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • DET: 282.3 pass yards a game to MIN's 162.3

    282.3 VS 162.3

    Detroit's air attack is producing 282.3 yards a game over six games, up from 253.1 last season, while Minnesota sits at 162.3, close to its 166.7 from last year. The Vikings' low number looks like who they are, and the Lions' jump has a six-game base behind it. Minnesota has to win by controlling the ball and limiting possessions. A game where Detroit gets extra drives tilts toward the Lions' volume through the air.

COVERAGE

  • MIN: 155 passing yards allowed per game to DET's 291.8

    136.8 YPG

    Minnesota has held passing offenses to 155 yards a game over 6 games, while Detroit has given up 291.8 through the air in its 6. The sheet doesn't show who either team played, so we can't tell how much of Minnesota's number comes from soft passing schedules or from teams leaning on the run. Six games is a real sample for both. With Detroit at home and leaky in coverage, the Vikings' passing game is the side with room to move the ball.

  • MIN: 28.2% third downs allowed to DET's 47.7%

    19.5 PP

    Minnesota gets off the field on most third downs, allowing conversions only 28.2% of the time over 6 games, while Detroit allows 47.7% in its 6. Third-down rates bounce around more than most stats, so Minnesota's number may come back toward normal. Detroit giving up nearly half its third downs is a real problem. Expect the Vikings to sustain more drives and control possession in this one.

  • MIN: 4.45 yards per play allowed to DET's 5.55

    1.1 Y/P

    MIN is at 4.45 yards per play allowed over 6 games; DET is at 5.55 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 31.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • MIN lead the series with DET since 2025

    2-0 SERIES

    Minnesota won both games last season: a 27-24 road win at Detroit in November and a 23-10 home win on Christmas. The Detroit game is the better guide here, since this one is back at Ford Field and that meeting came down to one score. Two games is a short sample, and nothing from this season is on the board yet.

REPLACEMENT

  • Jack Campbell (LB) is doubtful for DET

    DOUBTFUL

    Campbell is Detroit's linebacker and he hurt his neck badly enough that he is staying in a local hospital Sunday night, reported Nov 2. Doubtful usually means a player is very unlikely to suit up, and a hospital stay makes this one read close to out. The sheet does not name a replacement, so watch who Detroit lists behind him at linebacker before you size up the Vikings' run and short passing game.

  • Kyler Murray (QB) is questionable for MIN

    QUESTIONABLE

    Murray went 17 of 29 for 210 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and ran four times for 35 yards in the 19-15 loss to the Lions. He also threw a two-point conversion pass. He dealt with hamstring tightness during that game, which is why he is questionable now. He finished the game, which is a decent sign, but a tight hamstring can limit how much he runs, so his rushing yards are the number most likely to dip if he plays.

  • Isiah Pacheco (RB) is on injured reserve for DET

    IR

    Pacheco is on injured reserve for Detroit with a back injury, and Dan Campbell said Friday he has a chance to return in late December. That puts him out well beyond this game against Minnesota. For bettors, his absence is already part of how the Lions' backfield is priced, so there is no status news to wait on this week.

  • Kerby Joseph (S) is pup-r for DET

    PUP-R

    Joseph is still on the physically unable to perform list with a knee injury and is ruled out for Sunday against the Vikings, reported Oct 30. That means he is not available for this game. Detroit's secondary could get thinner, since corner Roger McCreary is also questionable for the same matchup.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Jay Ward

    Questionable

    Knee · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Roger McCreary

    Questionable

    Foot · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Christian Darrisaw

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Harrison Smith

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Gavin Bartholomew

    FP

    Full practice

  • Joe Huber

    FP

    Full practice

  • Aaron Jones Sr.

    FP

    Full practice

  • Ennis Rakestraw Jr.

    FP

    Full practice

  • Tyleik Williams

    FP

    Full practice

  • Alim McNeill

    FP

    Full practice

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown

    FP

    Full practice

  • Penei Sewell

    FP

    Full practice

  • Brian O'Neill

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jacob Saylors

    FP

    Full practice

  • DJ Wonnum

    FP

    Full practice

  • Aidan Hutchinson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jahmyr Gibbs

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • MIN (6-0) at DET (4-2), a division game

    -32 PT GAP

    Minnesota is unbeaten at 6-0, +51 on the year, and has won all three road games. Detroit is 4-2, +19, has won two straight, and is 3-0 at home, so one of those clean splits has to break. The Vikings bring the bigger margin and the longer streak, but division games tend to be tighter than season records suggest. A bettor should ask how much of Minnesota's perfect road mark is already built into the price against a home team that hasn't lost there.

  • MIN: 80% fourth-down conversion rate to DET's 61.5%

    18.5 PP

    MIN is at 80% fourth-down conversion rate over 6 games; DET is at 61.5% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season MIN was at 62.5% over 17 games and DET at 58.1% over 17 games.

STREAK

  • MIN has won 6 straight

    W6

    A 6-0 start means Minnesota has found a way to win every week so far, with no loss to point at. The sheet does not say who those six came against, so the streak tells you about results more than strength of schedule. Streaks end, and this one goes on the road to Detroit in a division game, a tougher spot than a typical week. Price the matchup on its own merits and expect the market to charge a premium for the unbeaten record.

TEAM RECORD

  • NFC NORTH game: MIN 2-0, DET 1-0 in the division

    DIVISION

    Minnesota is 2-0 in the NFC North and Detroit is 1-0, so neither has lost inside the division. Those are tiny samples, three games combined. Division games are familiar matchups and often play tighter than the overall records. With Minnesota unbeaten, expect Detroit at home to keep this closer than the streak suggests.

AFTER GARY

  • MIN +3 → +3.5

    NOW +0.5

    Gary's number was 3; the market closed at 3.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    JORDAN MASONRUSHING YARDS OVER 49.5
    NFLMinnesota Vikings· -109

    Jordan Mason
    Rushing Yards over 49.5

    -109 · LOST · ACTUAL 20

    Minnesota Vikings

    Minnesota wins by running the ball, holding it for half an hour, and making you beat that kicker. That plan matters even more at Ford Field, because the best way to slow Jared Goff is to keep him on the sideline. The Vikings have handed it to a back more than twenty times every week, and they'll do it again here.

    The question is who gets those carries, and last week answered it. Mason came off reserve and took 38 snaps. Aaron Jones had only 15, and most of that split was set before Jones hurt his knee in the fourth quarter. Mason finished with 15 carries for 68. In the opener, with both backs healthy, Mason again led with 15 carries for 59. The book has Jones at 28.5, so it sees the same pecking order I do.

    Detroit's run defense is good on a play-by-play basis, but it bends when an offense keeps leaning on it. Chuba Hubbard and James Cook both cleared a hundred against this front. The Vikings line is whole again with Darrisaw and O'Neill on the edges, and last week they created plenty of room before contact. Give Mason fifteen carries in a one-score game and fifty yards comes from simply staying on schedule. I'll take the over.

  • GARY'S PICK
    AMON-RA ST. BROWNRECEIVING YARDS UNDER 78.5
    NFLDetroit Lions· -115

    Amon-Ra St. Brown
    Receiving Yards under 78.5

    -115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 46

    Detroit Lions

    This number is built on the 153 he dropped on Green Bay last week. His usual game is in the high sixties to mid seventies, and this is the worst matchup he's had all year for a big one.

    Start with volume. Minnesota has kept the ball for 39 minutes twice this season, and opponents have often been held to the low forties or fifties in total plays. Fewer Detroit snaps means fewer dropbacks and fewer chances for anyone to stack catches.

    The defense makes it tougher. Brian Flores sends pressure from everywhere, and quarterbacks have been sacked four or more times nearly every week. Goff will get the ball out fast, and St. Brown will be his outlet, but quick throws against a blitz go for eight yards and a tackle. The explosive gains that pushed Detroit's receivers over in earlier games came against secondaries with time to break down. The Vikings haven't given up a passing touchdown since Week 1, and their receivers allowed have mostly stayed in check outside the Green Bay game.

    He'll catch plenty, but I expect a busy, short day that stalls in the sixties. I'll take the under.

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