Dallas Cowboys picks

A 2-5 Arizona team, with its quarterback under fire, walks into AT&T Stadium to face a Dallas team coming off a 38-21 Monday night win in Philadelphia. The book wants a full touchdown. I'll take it. Dallas's 3-4 record is softer than it looks. Its seven opponents are a combined 16-24-2 in their other games; Arizona's are 21-18-1. The Philadelphia win came against Tanner McKee with Jalen Hurts on IR, and the Washington win came after Jayden Daniels left at the end of the first half. Dallas has won by more than seven just twice. The real problem in Dallas is the defense. Opponents convert 54% of their third downs, run for 145.7 yards a game, and complete 68% of their passes at 7.7 yards per attempt. Dallas has allowed at least 20 points in every game and has only four takeaways. Dee Winters is out, and Kenny Clark landed on Friday's report with a bad back. That suits Arizona. The Cardinals have held the ball 30-plus minutes in five of seven games. They move it with Trey McBride, who has 59 catches on 78 targets, against Dallas linebackers and safeties who have been beaten in coverage. Long drives shorten the game, and the team getting seven wants a short game. Arizona has only six giveaways all year, so a turnover avalanche isn't likely. Average each offense's scoring with what the other defense allows and you land near Dallas 28, Arizona 23. A seven-point Dallas win is a push. The risks are real. Arizona's pass defense gives up 8.5 yards a throw, with 17 touchdowns against 3 interceptions, and Walter Nolen is out again. The Cardinals have one touchdown on their last ten red-zone trips, and Chad Ryland can only kick so many field goals. The line is thin, and Jacoby Brissett was hit 13 times last week. Watch center Hjalte Froholdt: he missed late-week practice and has no listed backup. If he sits, this gets shakier. Jeremiyah Love is back, and Michael Wilson plays. I'm taking the points, but as a small bet, not a big one.