Skip to content
GARY A.I.Get the app
NFL · Sun, Sep 27 · 4:25 PM

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

O/U 65.5 · SPREAD Baltimore Ravens -2.5 · AT&T Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Ravens -3.5
NFL@ Cowboys· -102

Ravens
-3.5

-102 · LOST · BAL 34 · DAL 31

Cowboys

The pick & result

Published pick
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 -102
Published odds
-102
Result
Lost
Final score
34-31

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 41 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 21 5:03 PM
Close
Sep 27 4:16 PM
Move
SPREADBaltimore Ravens -3 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)+½
TOTAL53 (-110)54 (-110)+1
MONEYLINEBaltimore Ravens -165Baltimore Ravens -180−15
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 21 5:03 PMBaltimore Ravens -3 (-110)53 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -165 · Dallas Cowboys +135
Sep 21 5:25 PMBaltimore Ravens -3 (-105)52.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -165 · Dallas Cowboys +135
Sep 22 12:22 AMBaltimore Ravens -3 (-105)52.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -155 · Dallas Cowboys +130
Sep 22 6:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -3 (-105)52.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -165 · Dallas Cowboys +135
Sep 22 6:30 AMBaltimore Ravens -3 (-105)52.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -155 · Dallas Cowboys +130
Sep 22 12:33 PMBaltimore Ravens -3 (-110)52.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -165 · Dallas Cowboys +135
Sep 22 4:56 PMBaltimore Ravens -3 (-110)52.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -170 · Dallas Cowboys +140
Sep 22 6:57 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)52.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 22 9:58 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)52.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 23 11:04 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)52.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -190 · Dallas Cowboys +155
Sep 24 12:52 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)52.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 24 9:48 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 24 10:48 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -190 · Dallas Cowboys +155
Sep 25 4:03 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -190 · Dallas Cowboys +155
Sep 26 12:07 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 26 2:32 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 26 4:33 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 26 5:33 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 26 9:35 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 26 10:05 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 26 10:43 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 12:44 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 5:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 6:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 8:30 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 9:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 10:00 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-105)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 10:21 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145
Sep 27 10:31 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145
Sep 27 11:12 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 11:33 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-105)Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145
Sep 27 11:43 AMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145
Sep 27 12:34 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-105)Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145
Sep 27 12:44 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145
Sep 27 1:44 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 2:45 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 2:55 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 3:06 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 3:36 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-107)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 3:55 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
Sep 27 4:06 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)53.5 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150
CLOSESep 27 4:16 PMBaltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100)54 (-110)Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150

The read

I’ll lay the 3.5. In this two-game sample, Dallas has allowed 173.5 rushing yards per game, 126 total rushing yards to quarterbacks and a 68% third-down conversion rate.

Jackson and Henry are the matchup I trust to keep Baltimore moving the ball. Dallas’ 37–20 win last week is less convincing than the score: Washington outgained the Cowboys, and Jayden Daniels left at halftime.

The case against my bet is real—Prescott can attack Baltimore’s secondary, while Ronnie Stanley is out and Zay Flowers may sit. At the posted price, I still think Baltimore’s ground-game advantage is enough to win by more than a field goal.

Injuries noted

Baltimore Ravens: Teddye Buchanan (Questionable) — questionable; Jahquez Robinson (IR) — Robinson (undisclosed) reverted to the Ravens' injured reserve list Wednesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Skylar Thompson (IR) — ir; Bilhal Kone (IR-R) — ir; Nnamdi Madubuike (Questionable) — questionable; Danny Pinter (IR) — Pinter (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Wednesday, Clifton Brown of the team's official website reports.; Adam Randall (IR-R) — Randall (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Sunday with a designation to return, Ryan Mink of the team's official website reports.; T.J. Tampa (IR) — The Ravens placed Tampa (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Zay Flowers (Questionable) — Flowers (hamstring) will participate in a pregame workout to determine his status for Sunday's game against the Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro, but the Ravens don't appear as if they expect him to play, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Ja'Kobi Lane (IR) — Coach Jesse Minter said Lane underwent wrist surgery Wednesday, and the Ravens placed the rookie wide receiver on injured reserve, Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun reports.; Trey Hendrickson (Questionable) — questionable; John Simpson (Questionable) — questionable; Ronnie Stanley (Out) — Stanley (toe) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Cowboys.; Chris Moore (Questionable) — questionable; Malaki Starks (Questionable) — questionable; Zion Young (Questionable) — questionable

Dallas Cowboys: Princeton Fant (IR) — ir; Matt Hennessy (IR) — ir; Kelvin Gilliam Jr. (IR) — Gilliam (triceps) reverted to Dallas' injured reserve Tuesday, Tommy Yarrish of the team's official site reports.; Marist Liufau (IR-R) — Liufau (forearm) was placed on injured reserve by the Cowboys on Sunday with a designation to return, Nick Eatman of the team's official website reports.; Devin Moore (IR-R) — ir; DJ Rogers (IR) — Rogers (knee) reverted to the Cowboys' injured-reserve list Monday, Joe Hoyt of The Dallas Morning News reports.; Tyler Smith (IR) — The Cowboys placed Smith (thumb) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Malik Davis (IR) — The Cowboys placed Davis (hip) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; DeMarvion Overshown (Out) — Overshown (hamstring) is not making the trip to Brazil for Sunday's matchup with the Ravens.; Malik Hooker (Out) — Hooker (forearm) has already been ruled out for Sunday's matchup with the Ravens in Brazil.; P.J. Locke (IR) — The Cowboys placed Locke (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.; Cobie Durant (Out) — Durant (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's matchup against the Ravens in Brazil.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Lamar Jackson is the projected starting quarterback for BAL

    9.98 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Lamar Jackson threw for 559 passing yards, completed 67.9% of his passes and averaged 9.98 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 2549 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 8.44 yards per attempt, 21-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

  • Dak Prescott is the projected starting quarterback for DAL

    6.99 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Dak Prescott threw for 454 passing yards, completed 73.8% of his passes and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4552 yards, completed 67.3% and averaged 7.59 yards per attempt, 30-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

TRENCHES

  • BAL: 83.5 rushing yards allowed per game to DAL's 173.5

    90 YPG

    Baltimore has allowed 83.5 rushing yards per game, while Dallas has allowed 173.5. The difference is based on 2 games for each defense, with no detail here on the run games or game scripts they faced. Baltimore has the better early run-defense number, though yards allowed can move quickly with opponent volume and score.

PASS RUSH

  • DAL: 6.5 sack yards lost per game to BAL's 25.5

    19 YDS

    Dallas has kept sack damage low through 2 games, while Baltimore has lost far more yardage on sacks than its 17.2 from last season. Dallas is also below its 16 from last season. Baltimore's passing game has less room for error in Dallas if that pressure-related gap continues, though 2 games can distort sack results.

  • DAL: 1 sack taken per game to BAL's 2.5

    1.5 SACKS

    BAL is at 2.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DAL is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 2.65 over 17 games and DAL at 2.38 over 17 games.

  • BAL: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to DAL's 1

    1.5 SACKS

    Baltimore has recorded 2.5 sacks per game, compared with Dallas at 1. The edge is based on 2 games, so a small number of sacks separates the teams. Baltimore has produced more early pressure finishes, but that is a fragile sample for any wager built around sacks or defensive control.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • BAL @ DAL carries a 52.5 market total

    52.5

    Nine points above the slate median, this game carries the clearest expectation for offense to arrive from both sides and keep the scoreboard moving. A bettor can frame BAL at DAL as a high-scoring environment, then look for game-specific news that would challenge that shared scoring expectation.

  • BAL: 31:18 time of possession per game to DAL's 25:56

    5:22 TOP

    BAL is at 31:18 time of possession per game over 2 games; DAL is at 25:56 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 29:11 over 17 games and DAL at 30:48 over 17 games.

  • BAL: 60 offensive plays per game to DAL's 53

    7 PLAYS

    BAL is at 60 offensive plays per game over 2 games; DAL is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 57.3 over 17 games and DAL at 65.9 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • DAL: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to BAL's 1

    0.5 TO

    BAL is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DAL is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 1.35 over 17 games and DAL at 1.24 over 17 games.

  • DAL: 0 fumbles lost per game to BAL's 0.5

    0.5 FUM

    BAL is at 0.5 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DAL is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 0.71 over 17 games and DAL at 0.53 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • BAL: 6.75 yards per play to DAL's 5.4

    1.35 Y/P

    Baltimore has been much more efficient per snap through 2 games and is above its 5.92 from last season. Dallas is below its 5.96 from last season. That puts Baltimore's offense in a strong early position against a Dallas unit producing less per play, though 2 games is a small sample for either side.

RED ZONE

  • DAL: 85.7% red-zone scoring rate to BAL's 66.7%

    19 PP

    BAL is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; DAL is at 85.7% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 47.5% over 17 games and DAL at 56.9% over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • DAL: 68.2% on third down to BAL's 38.9%

    68.2 VS 38.9

    Dallas has converted 68.2% of its third downs through 2 games, compared with 38.9% for Baltimore. Dallas was at 41.1% last season and Baltimore at 40.9%, which makes Dallas's current rate a major 2-game spike. Dallas can keep drives alive if that carries over; Baltimore needs to win enough third downs to keep Dallas from controlling possession and scoring chances.

COVERAGE

  • BAL: 44% third downs allowed to DAL's 68%

    24 PP

    Baltimore has allowed a 44% third-down conversion rate, compared with 68% for Dallas. Each figure covers 2 games, so the contrast comes from a short run of third-down situations. Baltimore has been better at ending drives early, while this is too small a sample to assume either rate will stay in place.

  • BAL: 4.7 yards per play allowed to DAL's 5.8

    1.1 Y/P

    BAL is at 4.7 yards per play allowed over 2 games; DAL is at 5.8 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

  • BAL: 191 passing yards allowed per game to DAL's 218

    27 YPG

    BAL is at 191 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; DAL is at 218 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

REPLACEMENT

  • Ja'Kobi Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for BAL

    IR

    Lane is on injured reserve after wrist surgery Wednesday. The rookie wide receiver is unavailable at Dallas, leaving Baltimore without him for this matchup.

  • P.J. Locke (S) is on injured reserve for DAL

    IR

    Locke is on injured reserve with a foot injury after Dallas placed him there Saturday. He is unavailable against Baltimore, with no replacement safety identified on the fact sheet.

  • T.J. Tampa (CB) is on injured reserve for BAL

    IR

    Tampa is on injured reserve after Baltimore placed him there Saturday with a knee injury. He is unavailable at Dallas, and the fact sheet names no replacement cornerback.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Ronnie Stanley

    Out

    Toe · Did not practice · Out

  • DeMarvion Overshown

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Malik Hooker

    Out

    Forearm · Did not practice · Out

  • Cobie Durant

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Zay Flowers

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

  • James Houston

    FP

    Full practice

  • Calais Campbell

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jaylinn Hawkins

    FP

    Full practice

  • Devontez Walker

    FP

    Full practice

  • Nnamdi Madubuike

    FP

    Full practice

  • Zion Young

    FP

    Full practice

  • Chris Moore

    FP

    Full practice

  • Ajani Cornelius

    FP

    Full practice

  • Trey Hendrickson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Teddye Buchanan

    FP

    Full practice

  • John Simpson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Keondre Jackson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Malaki Starks

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • BAL: 8.65 yards per pass attempt to DAL's 6.6

    2.05 Y/A

    BAL is at 8.65 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DAL is at 6.6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 6.69 over 17 games and DAL at 7 over 17 games.

  • BAL: 254 team passing yards per game to DAL's 220.5

    33.5 YPG

    BAL is at 254 team passing yards per game over 2 games; DAL is at 220.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 175.6 over 17 games and DAL at 266.3 over 17 games.

  • BAL (1-1) at DAL (1-1)

    -2 PT GAP

    Baltimore and Dallas are both 1-1, with Baltimore at +11 and Dallas at +9. Baltimore enters off a loss and Dallas off a win, while each team won its only game in the relevant venue split. The margins are nearly even through two games, so this is more about whether Dallas can extend its home form than about a meaningful gap in overall results.

AFTER GARY

  • BAL -3.5 → -3.5

    NO MOVE

    Gary's number was -3.5; the same book now shows -3.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers, fanduel.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    LAMAR JACKSONPASSING COMPLETIONS UNDER 19.5
    NFLBaltimore Ravens· -105

    Lamar Jackson
    Passing Completions under 19.5

    -105 · CASHED · ACTUAL 15

    Baltimore Ravens

    I’ll take under 19.5 completions at -105. Baltimore has a clear reason to put the ball in Jackson’s and Derrick Henry’s hands on the ground: Dallas has allowed 173.5 rushing yards per game and has struggled to contain running quarterbacks through two games.

    Jackson completed 17 and 21 passes in Baltimore’s two games, so I expect the run matchup to keep his passing volume below what this line needs. Dallas has also allowed five passing touchdowns, and its offense can force Baltimore to throw if Prescott builds a lead.

    Those are the strongest threats to this pick.

  • GARY'S PICK
    RASHOD BATEMANRECEIVING YARDS UNDER 43.5
    NFLBaltimore Ravens· -113

    Rashod Bateman
    Receiving Yards under 43.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 37

    Baltimore Ravens

    I’ll take under 43.5 receiving yards at -113. Bateman is an active Baltimore receiver, but his role has swung sharply in two games: one target and no yards in the opener, then 88 yards against New Orleans with Zay Flowers out.

    Henry and Jackson have a favorable rushing matchup against Dallas, and Mark Andrews has drawn steady targets, so I do not need Baltimore to lean heavily on Bateman to move the ball. The case against me is substantial.

    Flowers may sit again, Bateman drew nine targets in that situation last week, and Dallas is without cornerback Cobie Durant.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NFL game this dayThe NFL recordToday's NFL picksEvery sport this day