Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
O/U 65.5 · SPREAD Baltimore Ravens -2.5 · AT&T Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Baltimore Ravens -3.5 -102
- Published odds
- -102
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 34-31
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 41 moves| Market | Opened Sep 21 5:03 PM | Close Sep 27 4:16 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 53 (-110) | 54 (-110) | +1 |
| MONEYLINE | Baltimore Ravens -165 | Baltimore Ravens -180 | −15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 21 5:03 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -165 · Dallas Cowboys +135 |
| Sep 21 5:25 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105) | 52.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -165 · Dallas Cowboys +135 |
| Sep 22 12:22 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105) | 52.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -155 · Dallas Cowboys +130 |
| Sep 22 6:00 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105) | 52.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -165 · Dallas Cowboys +135 |
| Sep 22 6:30 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-105) | 52.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -155 · Dallas Cowboys +130 |
| Sep 22 12:33 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110) | 52.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -165 · Dallas Cowboys +135 |
| Sep 22 4:56 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3 (-110) | 52.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -170 · Dallas Cowboys +140 |
| Sep 22 6:57 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 52.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 22 9:58 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 52.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 23 11:04 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 52.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -190 · Dallas Cowboys +155 |
| Sep 24 12:52 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 52.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 24 9:48 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 24 10:48 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -190 · Dallas Cowboys +155 |
| Sep 25 4:03 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -190 · Dallas Cowboys +155 |
| Sep 26 12:07 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 26 2:32 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 26 4:33 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 26 5:33 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 26 9:35 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 26 10:05 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 26 10:43 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 12:44 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 5:00 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 6:00 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 8:30 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 9:00 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 10:00 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-105) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 10:21 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145 |
| Sep 27 10:31 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145 |
| Sep 27 11:12 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 11:33 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-105) | Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145 |
| Sep 27 11:43 AM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145 |
| Sep 27 12:34 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-105) | Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145 |
| Sep 27 12:44 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -175 · Dallas Cowboys +145 |
| Sep 27 1:44 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 2:45 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 2:55 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 3:06 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 3:36 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-107) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 3:55 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| Sep 27 4:06 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 53.5 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
| CLOSESep 27 4:16 PM | Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (+100) | 54 (-110) | Baltimore Ravens -180 · Dallas Cowboys +150 |
The read
I’ll lay the 3.5. In this two-game sample, Dallas has allowed 173.5 rushing yards per game, 126 total rushing yards to quarterbacks and a 68% third-down conversion rate.
Jackson and Henry are the matchup I trust to keep Baltimore moving the ball. Dallas’ 37–20 win last week is less convincing than the score: Washington outgained the Cowboys, and Jayden Daniels left at halftime.
The case against my bet is real—Prescott can attack Baltimore’s secondary, while Ronnie Stanley is out and Zay Flowers may sit. At the posted price, I still think Baltimore’s ground-game advantage is enough to win by more than a field goal.
Injuries noted
Baltimore Ravens: Teddye Buchanan (Questionable) — questionable; Jahquez Robinson (IR) — Robinson (undisclosed) reverted to the Ravens' injured reserve list Wednesday, Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Houston reports.; Skylar Thompson (IR) — ir; Bilhal Kone (IR-R) — ir; Nnamdi Madubuike (Questionable) — questionable; Danny Pinter (IR) — Pinter (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Wednesday, Clifton Brown of the team's official website reports.; Adam Randall (IR-R) — Randall (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Sunday with a designation to return, Ryan Mink of the team's official website reports.; T.J. Tampa (IR) — The Ravens placed Tampa (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Zay Flowers (Questionable) — Flowers (hamstring) will participate in a pregame workout to determine his status for Sunday's game against the Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro, but the Ravens don't appear as if they expect him to play, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Ja'Kobi Lane (IR) — Coach Jesse Minter said Lane underwent wrist surgery Wednesday, and the Ravens placed the rookie wide receiver on injured reserve, Brian Wacker of The Baltimore Sun reports.; Trey Hendrickson (Questionable) — questionable; John Simpson (Questionable) — questionable; Ronnie Stanley (Out) — Stanley (toe) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Cowboys.; Chris Moore (Questionable) — questionable; Malaki Starks (Questionable) — questionable; Zion Young (Questionable) — questionable
Dallas Cowboys: Princeton Fant (IR) — ir; Matt Hennessy (IR) — ir; Kelvin Gilliam Jr. (IR) — Gilliam (triceps) reverted to Dallas' injured reserve Tuesday, Tommy Yarrish of the team's official site reports.; Marist Liufau (IR-R) — Liufau (forearm) was placed on injured reserve by the Cowboys on Sunday with a designation to return, Nick Eatman of the team's official website reports.; Devin Moore (IR-R) — ir; DJ Rogers (IR) — Rogers (knee) reverted to the Cowboys' injured-reserve list Monday, Joe Hoyt of The Dallas Morning News reports.; Tyler Smith (IR) — The Cowboys placed Smith (thumb) on injured reserve Wednesday.; Malik Davis (IR) — The Cowboys placed Davis (hip) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; DeMarvion Overshown (Out) — Overshown (hamstring) is not making the trip to Brazil for Sunday's matchup with the Ravens.; Malik Hooker (Out) — Hooker (forearm) has already been ruled out for Sunday's matchup with the Ravens in Brazil.; P.J. Locke (IR) — The Cowboys placed Locke (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.; Cobie Durant (Out) — Durant (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's matchup against the Ravens in Brazil.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Lamar Jackson is the projected starting quarterback for BAL
9.98 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Lamar Jackson threw for 559 passing yards, completed 67.9% of his passes and averaged 9.98 yards per attempt. Last season over 13 games he threw for 2549 yards, completed 63.6% and averaged 8.44 yards per attempt, 21-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
Dak Prescott is the projected starting quarterback for DAL
6.99 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Dak Prescott threw for 454 passing yards, completed 73.8% of his passes and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4552 yards, completed 67.3% and averaged 7.59 yards per attempt, 30-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
TRENCHES
BAL: 83.5 rushing yards allowed per game to DAL's 173.5
90 YPGBaltimore has allowed 83.5 rushing yards per game, while Dallas has allowed 173.5. The difference is based on 2 games for each defense, with no detail here on the run games or game scripts they faced. Baltimore has the better early run-defense number, though yards allowed can move quickly with opponent volume and score.
PASS RUSH
DAL: 6.5 sack yards lost per game to BAL's 25.5
19 YDSDallas has kept sack damage low through 2 games, while Baltimore has lost far more yardage on sacks than its 17.2 from last season. Dallas is also below its 16 from last season. Baltimore's passing game has less room for error in Dallas if that pressure-related gap continues, though 2 games can distort sack results.
DAL: 1 sack taken per game to BAL's 2.5
1.5 SACKSBAL is at 2.5 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DAL is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 2.65 over 17 games and DAL at 2.38 over 17 games.
BAL: 2.5 sacks recorded per game to DAL's 1
1.5 SACKSBaltimore has recorded 2.5 sacks per game, compared with Dallas at 1. The edge is based on 2 games, so a small number of sacks separates the teams. Baltimore has produced more early pressure finishes, but that is a fragile sample for any wager built around sacks or defensive control.
PACE & SCRIPT
BAL @ DAL carries a 52.5 market total
52.5Nine points above the slate median, this game carries the clearest expectation for offense to arrive from both sides and keep the scoreboard moving. A bettor can frame BAL at DAL as a high-scoring environment, then look for game-specific news that would challenge that shared scoring expectation.
BAL: 31:18 time of possession per game to DAL's 25:56
5:22 TOPBAL is at 31:18 time of possession per game over 2 games; DAL is at 25:56 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 29:11 over 17 games and DAL at 30:48 over 17 games.
BAL: 60 offensive plays per game to DAL's 53
7 PLAYSBAL is at 60 offensive plays per game over 2 games; DAL is at 53 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 57.3 over 17 games and DAL at 65.9 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
DAL: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to BAL's 1
0.5 TOBAL is at 1 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; DAL is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 1.35 over 17 games and DAL at 1.24 over 17 games.
DAL: 0 fumbles lost per game to BAL's 0.5
0.5 FUMBAL is at 0.5 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; DAL is at 0 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 0.71 over 17 games and DAL at 0.53 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
BAL: 6.75 yards per play to DAL's 5.4
1.35 Y/PBaltimore has been much more efficient per snap through 2 games and is above its 5.92 from last season. Dallas is below its 5.96 from last season. That puts Baltimore's offense in a strong early position against a Dallas unit producing less per play, though 2 games is a small sample for either side.
RED ZONE
DAL: 85.7% red-zone scoring rate to BAL's 66.7%
19 PPBAL is at 66.7% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; DAL is at 85.7% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 47.5% over 17 games and DAL at 56.9% over 17 games.
MISMATCH
DAL: 68.2% on third down to BAL's 38.9%
68.2 VS 38.9Dallas has converted 68.2% of its third downs through 2 games, compared with 38.9% for Baltimore. Dallas was at 41.1% last season and Baltimore at 40.9%, which makes Dallas's current rate a major 2-game spike. Dallas can keep drives alive if that carries over; Baltimore needs to win enough third downs to keep Dallas from controlling possession and scoring chances.
COVERAGE
BAL: 44% third downs allowed to DAL's 68%
24 PPBaltimore has allowed a 44% third-down conversion rate, compared with 68% for Dallas. Each figure covers 2 games, so the contrast comes from a short run of third-down situations. Baltimore has been better at ending drives early, while this is too small a sample to assume either rate will stay in place.
BAL: 4.7 yards per play allowed to DAL's 5.8
1.1 Y/PBAL is at 4.7 yards per play allowed over 2 games; DAL is at 5.8 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.
BAL: 191 passing yards allowed per game to DAL's 218
27 YPGBAL is at 191 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; DAL is at 218 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.
REPLACEMENT
Ja'Kobi Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for BAL
IRLane is on injured reserve after wrist surgery Wednesday. The rookie wide receiver is unavailable at Dallas, leaving Baltimore without him for this matchup.
P.J. Locke (S) is on injured reserve for DAL
IRLocke is on injured reserve with a foot injury after Dallas placed him there Saturday. He is unavailable against Baltimore, with no replacement safety identified on the fact sheet.
T.J. Tampa (CB) is on injured reserve for BAL
IRTampa is on injured reserve after Baltimore placed him there Saturday with a knee injury. He is unavailable at Dallas, and the fact sheet names no replacement cornerback.
PRACTICE REPORT
Ronnie Stanley
OutToe · Did not practice · Out
DeMarvion Overshown
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Malik Hooker
OutForearm · Did not practice · Out
Cobie Durant
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Zay Flowers
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
James Houston
FPFull practice
Calais Campbell
FPFull practice
Jaylinn Hawkins
FPFull practice
Devontez Walker
FPFull practice
Nnamdi Madubuike
FPFull practice
Zion Young
FPFull practice
Chris Moore
FPFull practice
Ajani Cornelius
FPFull practice
Trey Hendrickson
FPFull practice
Teddye Buchanan
FPFull practice
John Simpson
FPFull practice
Keondre Jackson
FPFull practice
Malaki Starks
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
BAL: 8.65 yards per pass attempt to DAL's 6.6
2.05 Y/ABAL is at 8.65 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DAL is at 6.6 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 6.69 over 17 games and DAL at 7 over 17 games.
BAL: 254 team passing yards per game to DAL's 220.5
33.5 YPGBAL is at 254 team passing yards per game over 2 games; DAL is at 220.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season BAL was at 175.6 over 17 games and DAL at 266.3 over 17 games.
BAL (1-1) at DAL (1-1)
-2 PT GAPBaltimore and Dallas are both 1-1, with Baltimore at +11 and Dallas at +9. Baltimore enters off a loss and Dallas off a win, while each team won its only game in the relevant venue split. The margins are nearly even through two games, so this is more about whether Dallas can extend its home form than about a meaningful gap in overall results.
AFTER GARY
BAL -3.5 → -3.5
NO MOVEGary's number was -3.5; the same book now shows -3.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers, fanduel.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKLAMAR JACKSONPASSING COMPLETIONS UNDER 19.5
I’ll take under 19.5 completions at -105. Baltimore has a clear reason to put the ball in Jackson’s and Derrick Henry’s hands on the ground: Dallas has allowed 173.5 rushing yards per game and has struggled to contain running quarterbacks through two games.
Jackson completed 17 and 21 passes in Baltimore’s two games, so I expect the run matchup to keep his passing volume below what this line needs. Dallas has also allowed five passing touchdowns, and its offense can force Baltimore to throw if Prescott builds a lead.
Those are the strongest threats to this pick.
- GARY'S PICKRASHOD BATEMANRECEIVING YARDS UNDER 43.5
I’ll take under 43.5 receiving yards at -113. Bateman is an active Baltimore receiver, but his role has swung sharply in two games: one target and no yards in the opener, then 88 yards against New Orleans with Zay Flowers out.
Henry and Jackson have a favorable rushing matchup against Dallas, and Mark Andrews has drawn steady targets, so I do not need Baltimore to lean heavily on Bateman to move the ball. The case against me is substantial.
Flowers may sit again, Bateman drew nine targets in that situation last week, and Dallas is without cornerback Cobie Durant.
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