Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  GEORGE PICKENSRECEIVING YARDS OVER 67.5

  NFLDallas Cowboys· -113

  LOST · ACTUAL 28

  GARY'S TAKE

  Pickens made himself the focal point of this passing game last season, clearing 67.5 receiving yards in seven of his final ten outings on the way to 1,429 yards and his first Pro Bowl. He and CeeDee Lamb have spent camp saying they're the best receiving duo in football, and Pickens is the one who wins early, off the line, on the deep ball. The matchup sets up in his favor. New Giants coordinator Dennard Wilson leaned on Cover 3 and Cover 4 more than three-quarters of the time in Tennessee, and that zone-heavy approach is exactly what Dak Prescott picked apart last season. Pickens is the receiver Dallas trusts to win those matchups, and he's doing it against a secondary playing its first game together under a new system. I like the volume and I like the matchup.

  ×

  George Pickens
  Receiving Yards over 67.5

  -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 28

  Dallas Cowboys

  Read Gary’s Take

  Pickens made himself the focal point of this passing game last season, clearing 67.5 receiving yards in seven of his final ten outings on the way to 1,429 yards and his first Pro Bowl. He and CeeDee Lamb have spent camp saying they're the best receiving duo in football, and Pickens is the one who wins early, off the line, on the deep ball.

  The matchup sets up in his favor. New Giants coordinator Dennard Wilson leaned on Cover 3 and Cover 4 more than three-quarters of the time in Tennessee, and that zone-heavy approach is exactly what Dak Prescott picked apart last season. Pickens is the receiver Dallas trusts to win those matchups, and he's doing it against a secondary playing its first game together under a new system. I like the volume and I like the matchup.

• THE LONG SHOT

  JAVONTE WILLIAMSANYTIME TD OVER 0.5

  NFLDallas Cowboys· -135

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  Every storyline out of Dallas this week points to the same plan: run the ball to keep Dak Prescott off the ground against a Giants front that gets home with just four rushers. Williams is the one carrying that plan out. He put up 1,201 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns last season as a true three-down back, and he's still the clear lead back walking into this one. His workload just got safer, too. Dallas placed backup running back Malik Davis on injured reserve Saturday, leaving no real competition for touches or goal-line work behind him. I don't love laying this much price on a touchdown prop most weeks, but for the focal point of a game plan built specifically to protect his quarterback, against a Giants defense playing its first live game under a brand-new coordinator, I'm comfortable with it.

  ×

  Javonte Williams
  Anytime TD over 0.5

  -135 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2

  Dallas Cowboys

  Read Gary’s Take

  Every storyline out of Dallas this week points to the same plan: run the ball to keep Dak Prescott off the ground against a Giants front that gets home with just four rushers. Williams is the one carrying that plan out. He put up 1,201 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns last season as a true three-down back, and he's still the clear lead back walking into this one.

  His workload just got safer, too. Dallas placed backup running back Malik Davis on injured reserve Saturday, leaving no real competition for touches or goal-line work behind him. I don't love laying this much price on a touchdown prop most weeks, but for the focal point of a game plan built specifically to protect his quarterback, against a Giants defense playing its first live game under a brand-new coordinator, I'm comfortable with it.

• GARY'S PICK

  JAXSON DARTRUSHING YARDS OVER 31.5

  NFLNew York Giants· -113

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 54

  GARY'S TAKE

  Dart's legs were a real weapon as a rookie, and I think this number undersells him. He cleared 31.5 rushing yards in six of his final ten starts, averaging almost 38 a game, with four outings north of 55 on scrambles and designed runs. What I keep coming back to is Dallas's new defensive identity. Christian Parker came over from Philadelphia, where the Eagles played from light boxes on more than three-quarters of their defensive snaps a year ago. If that carries into his first game calling a Dallas defense, it opens exactly the kind of running room that helped this Giants offense score seven rushing touchdowns against light-box fronts in 2025. Dart is going to get chances to tuck it and go in his first game as the unquestioned starter, at home, under the lights.

  ×

  Jaxson Dart
  Rushing Yards over 31.5

  -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 54

  New York Giants

  Read Gary’s Take

  Dart's legs were a real weapon as a rookie, and I think this number undersells him. He cleared 31.5 rushing yards in six of his final ten starts, averaging almost 38 a game, with four outings north of 55 on scrambles and designed runs.

  What I keep coming back to is Dallas's new defensive identity. Christian Parker came over from Philadelphia, where the Eagles played from light boxes on more than three-quarters of their defensive snaps a year ago. If that carries into his first game calling a Dallas defense, it opens exactly the kind of running room that helped this Giants offense score seven rushing touchdowns against light-box fronts in 2025. Dart is going to get chances to tuck it and go in his first game as the unquestioned starter, at home, under the lights.

• THE LONG SHOT

  CAM SKATTEBOANYTIME TD OVER 0.5

  NFLNew York Giants· +115

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Skattebo's rookie year ended early, but before the injury he was scoring at an absurd rate for a part-time back, finding the end zone seven times in about half a season. He's healthy now, running behind a fullback in six-time Pro Bowler Patrick Ricard, in an offense John Harbaugh has built to be physical and downhill from his eighteen years running that identity in Baltimore. Plus money on a back who scored at that clip is a number I want, especially in a home opener where a new staff is going to want to establish its brand of football early and lean on its most physical runner to do it. Najee Harris adds depth to this backfield, but I don't think he takes away Skattebo's role at the goal line. That's still Skattebo's job in this offense.

  ×

  Cam Skattebo
  Anytime TD over 0.5

  +115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  New York Giants

  Read Gary’s Take

  Skattebo's rookie year ended early, but before the injury he was scoring at an absurd rate for a part-time back, finding the end zone seven times in about half a season. He's healthy now, running behind a fullback in six-time Pro Bowler Patrick Ricard, in an offense John Harbaugh has built to be physical and downhill from his eighteen years running that identity in Baltimore.

  Plus money on a back who scored at that clip is a number I want, especially in a home opener where a new staff is going to want to establish its brand of football early and lean on its most physical runner to do it. Najee Harris adds depth to this backfield, but I don't think he takes away Skattebo's role at the goal line. That's still Skattebo's job in this offense.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.