Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
O/U 53.5 · SPREAD Green Bay Packers -1.5 · Lambeau Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Dallas Cowboys ML -106
- Published odds
- -106
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 13-23
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 41 moves| Market | Opened Oct 13 6:00 AM | Close Oct 18 8:13 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Dallas Cowboys -0.5 (-105) | Dallas Cowboys -1 (-110) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 52.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-115) | +1 |
| MONEYLINE | Green Bay Packers -115 | Green Bay Packers -110 | +5 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 13 6:00 AM | Dallas Cowboys -0.5 (-105) | 52.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 13 7:00 AM | Dallas Cowboys +1 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 13 10:01 AM | Dallas Cowboys +1 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -120 · Dallas Cowboys +100 |
| Oct 13 1:02 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -120 · Dallas Cowboys +100 |
| Oct 13 6:32 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-115) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -125 · Dallas Cowboys +105 |
| Oct 13 8:12 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -120 · Dallas Cowboys +100 |
| Oct 14 12:34 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -125 · Dallas Cowboys +105 |
| Oct 14 10:38 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-105) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -125 · Dallas Cowboys +105 |
| Oct 14 11:08 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -125 · Dallas Cowboys +105 |
| Oct 15 12:01 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-115) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -120 · Dallas Cowboys +100 |
| Oct 15 5:15 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -120 · Dallas Cowboys +100 |
| Oct 15 8:13 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-115) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -120 · Dallas Cowboys +100 |
| Oct 15 8:23 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -120 · Dallas Cowboys +100 |
| Oct 16 9:00 AM | Dallas Cowboys +1.5 (-115) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -120 · Dallas Cowboys +100 |
| Oct 16 12:02 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 17 9:31 AM | Dallas Cowboys +1 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 17 6:33 PM | Dallas Cowboys -0.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 17 7:33 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 17 9:34 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -110 · Dallas Cowboys -110 |
| Oct 17 10:04 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 17 10:34 PM | Dallas Cowboys -0.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 18 8:01 AM | Dallas Cowboys -0.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-115) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 18 8:11 AM | Dallas Cowboys +1 (-110) | 53.5 (-115) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 18 12:13 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1 (-110) | 53 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 18 12:21 PM | Dallas Cowboys +1 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 18 12:41 PM | Dallas Cowboys -0.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 18 2:52 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 18 3:02 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -110 · Dallas Cowboys -110 |
| Oct 18 3:34 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 18 4:04 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -110 · Dallas Cowboys -110 |
| Oct 18 4:34 PM | Dallas Cowboys -0.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 18 5:04 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-110) | 54 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 18 5:20 PM | Dallas Cowboys -0.5 (-105) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -115 · Dallas Cowboys -105 |
| Oct 18 5:30 PM | Dallas Cowboys -0.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -110 · Dallas Cowboys -110 |
| Oct 18 5:40 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-115) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -105 · Dallas Cowboys -115 |
| Oct 18 6:11 PM | Dallas Cowboys -0.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -110 · Dallas Cowboys -110 |
| Oct 18 6:42 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-115) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -105 · Dallas Cowboys -115 |
| Oct 18 7:02 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-115) | 54 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -105 · Dallas Cowboys -115 |
| Oct 18 7:22 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-115) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -105 · Dallas Cowboys -115 |
| Oct 18 7:32 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-115) | 54 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -105 · Dallas Cowboys -115 |
| Oct 18 8:03 PM | Dallas Cowboys +0.5 (-115) | 53.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -105 · Dallas Cowboys -115 |
| CLOSEOct 18 8:13 PM | Dallas Cowboys -1 (-110) | 53.5 (-115) | Green Bay Packers -110 · Dallas Cowboys -110 |
The read
Clear skies, a gusty breeze and Sunday night at Lambeau. The Cowboys arrive off a sloppy Thursday loss to a winless Tampa team, while the Packers just ran the Bears off the field 31-7. Every last impression says Green Bay, and that's exactly why I'm backing Dallas to win outright.
The price makes this close to a coin flip, and the Cowboys bring the best unit on the field. Dallas ranks 7th in offensive EPA, Dak Prescott has been sacked just 6 times all season, and CeeDee Lamb practiced fully all week. That offense draws a Packers defense that just lost Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Ford up front and Benjamin St-Juste at corner. Brandon Cisse is questionable with a hip injury. Those are exactly the spots Dallas wants to attack.
Prescott has also been the steadier quarterback: 67.2% completions and a 78.9 QBR, against 60.5% and 63.5 for Jordan Love, who needed two good weeks to shake off three erratic ones. In a game where both offenses should move the ball, give me the reliable one.
Last week's results flatter Green Bay and sell Dallas short. The Bears played without Caleb Williams and gave the ball away 5 times. Dallas averaged 6.7 yards a play against Tampa and lost because of 3 giveaways. That turnover luck should even out: Dallas has just 2 takeaways all season, Green Bay has 9.
The Packers have struggled with real competition, losing 22-39 at unbeaten Minnesota and 14-35 at home to Atlanta. Dallas lost 31-34 to a 4-1 Ravens team on a long late field goal. At 2-3, Dallas has outscored opponents 27.6 to 27.2 a game. At 3-2, Green Bay has been outscored 20.8 to 22.4. The Cowboys also get 10 days of rest to Green Bay's 7.
The risk is real. Dallas owns the league's worst defense by EPA and has only 5 sacks. Its secondary is missing Cobie Durant, P.J. Locke and Jalen Thompson. Christian Watson, with 6 touchdowns on 40 targets, and Xavier McKinney, with 3 interceptions, can swing this. But in a likely shootout, I'll take the better offense and the steadier quarterback to win it.
Injuries noted
Dallas Cowboys: Princeton Fant (IR) — ir; Matt Hennessy (IR) — ir; Kelvin Gilliam Jr. (IR) — Gilliam (triceps) reverted to Dallas' injured reserve Tuesday, Tommy Yarrish of the team's official site reports.; Marist Liufau (IR-R) — Liufau (forearm) was placed on injured reserve by the Cowboys on Sunday with a designation to return, Nick Eatman of the team's official website reports.; Devin Moore (IR-R) — ir; DJ Rogers (IR); Malik Davis (IR) — The Cowboys placed Davis (hip) on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; DeMarvion Overshown (Out) — Dallas has downgraded Overshown (hamstring) to out for Sunday night's game against the Packers, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.; P.J. Locke (IR) — The Cowboys placed Locke (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.; Cobie Durant (Out) — Durant (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.; Jalen Thompson (IR) — The Cowboys placed Thompson (hamstring) on injured reserve Wednesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.; Jonathan Bullard (IR) — The Cowboys placed Bullard (calf) on injured reserve Wednesday, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports.; Drew Shelton (Out) — Shelton (hamstring) has ben ruled out for Sunday's game against the Packers, Patrik Walker of the Cowboys' official site reports.; Ameer Speed (Questionable) — questionable; LT Overton (Questionable) — questionable; Joey Porter Jr. (Questionable) — Porter (ankle) is questionable but on track to play in Sunday's game against the Packers, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.
Green Bay Packers: Luke Musgrave (PUP-R) — Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Tuesday that he's "really hopeful" Musgrave (neck) will be able to play at some point during the 2026 season, Ryan Wood of USA Today reports.; Micah Parsons (PUP-R) — The Packers aren't planning on opening Parsons' (knee) 21-day practice window this week ahead of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Jordon Riley (PUP-R) — Riley (Achilles) had his 21-day practice window opened by the Packers on Wednesday, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports.; Johnathan Baldwin II (IR) — ir; Warren Brinson (IR) — Green Bay placed Brinson (calf/groin) on injured reserve Saturday.; Collin Oliver (IR-R) — Oliver is dealing with Achilles and calf injuries. and is considered week-to-week, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Savion Williams (Questionable) — The Packers activated Williams (ankle) from injured reserve Saturday.; Thomas Yassmin (IR) — Green Bay reverted Yassmin (undisclosed) to injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Aaron Banks (Questionable) — Banks (knee/toe) is questionable for Sunday's game against Dallas.; Anthony Campbell (Questionable) — questionable; Zach Bako-Bewele (IR) — The Packers placed Bako-Bewele (knee) on injured reserve Monday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Jayden Reed (IR) — The Packers are expected to place Reed (neck) on injured reserve Wednesday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Edgerrin Cooper (IR) — Cooper (Achilles) was placed on injured reserve by the Packers on Tuesday.; Jacob Monk (Questionable) — Monk (quadriceps) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys.; Chris Brooks (IR) — The Packers placed Brooks (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Josh Jacobs (Out) — Jacobs (personal) will be removed from the Commissioner's Exempt List on Monday and be eligible to play as soon as the Packers' Week 7 game at Detroit, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Skyy Moore (IR) — The Packers placed Moore (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday.; Benjamin St-Juste (Out) — St-Juste (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against Dallas.; Javon Hargrave (IR) — The Packers placed Hargrave (Achilles) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jonathan Ford (IR) — The Packers placed Ford (calf) on injured reserve Saturday.; Brandon Cisse (Questionable) — Cisse (hip) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Dak Prescott is the projected starting quarterback for DAL
7.19 Y/AThrough 5 games in 2026, Dak Prescott threw for 1381 passing yards, completed 67.2% of his passes and averaged 7.19 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4552 yards, completed 67.3% and averaged 7.59 yards per attempt, 30-10 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 9-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.
Jordan Love is the projected starting quarterback for GB
7.61 Y/AThrough 5 games in 2026, Jordan Love threw for 1408 passing yards, completed 60.5% of his passes and averaged 7.61 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3381 yards, completed 66.3% and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, 23-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 10-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.
TRENCHES
GB: 127.6 rushing yards allowed per game to DAL's 168.4
40.8 YPGDAL is at 168.4 rushing yards allowed per game over 5 games; GB is at 127.6 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.
DAL: 3.72 yards per rush attempt to GB's 2.92
0.8 Y/CDAL is at 3.72 yards per rush attempt over 5 games; GB is at 2.92 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season DAL was at 4.59 over 17 games and GB at 4.21 over 17 games.
DAL: 81.6 rushing yards per game to GB's 60.4
21.2 YPGDAL is at 81.6 rushing yards per game over 5 games; GB is at 60.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season DAL was at 125.6 over 17 games and GB at 119.8 over 17 games.
PASS RUSH
GB: 2.8 sacks recorded per game to DAL's 1
1.8 SACKSGreen Bay gets 2.8 sacks a game and Dallas gets 1, over five games each. The Packers' rush is reaching the quarterback often, and the Cowboys' mostly isn't. Sack rates depend on the protection a team faces, which the sheet doesn't cover. Dallas' quarterback is the one more likely to be under pressure, which can kill drives and push the game toward fewer Dallas points.
DAL: 1.2 sacks taken per game to GB's 2
0.8 SACKSDAL is at 1.2 sacks taken per game over 5 games; GB is at 2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season DAL was at 2.38 over 17 games and GB at 2.07 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
DAL @ GB carries a 53.5 market total
53.5This number puts the game in the top tier of the slate for expected scoring, far above the middle of the board. The market is pricing a game where both teams trade scores rather than grind clock. For it to come in lower, one side has to win with field goals and long drives, so the early possession results tell you a lot about which script is playing out.
DAL: 27.6 points per game to GB's 20.8
6.8 PPGDAL is at 27.6 points per game over 5 games; GB is at 20.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season DAL was at 27.7 over 17 games and GB at 23 over 17 games.
GB: 22.4 points allowed per game to DAL's 27.2
4.8 PPGDAL is at 27.2 points allowed per game over 5 games; GB is at 22.4 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 17. Last season DAL was at 30.1 over 17 games and GB at 21.2 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
GB: 1.8 takeaways per game to DAL's 0.4
1.4 TOGreen Bay forces 1.8 turnovers a game and Dallas forces 0.4 over five games each. Takeaways swing a lot week to week, so both numbers tend to drift toward the middle. Dallas rarely gives its offense a short field, which matters if this game turns into a grind where one extra possession decides it.
RED ZONE
DAL: 70% red-zone scoring allowed to GB's 81.3%
11.3 PPDAL is at 70% red-zone scoring allowed over 5 games; GB is at 81.3% over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.
MISMATCH
DAL: 49.2% on third down to GB's 27.6%
49.2 VS 27.6Dallas converts 49.2% of its third downs over 5 games, Green Bay just 27.6%. Last season Green Bay was at 48.8% and Dallas at 41.1%, so the Packers' drop is the bigger move and the likelier one to bounce back. Five games of third downs is a small pile of plays. At Green Bay, Dallas extending drives is a fair expectation, but Green Bay's offense has a track record that says it should not stay this stuck.
COVERAGE
GB: 4.7 yards per play allowed to DAL's 6.42
1.72 Y/PGreen Bay gives up 4.7 yards every time an offense snaps the ball, and Dallas gives up 6.42, so drives against the Packers stall far more often. The sheet doesn't say who either team has faced, so some of this gap could be schedule. Five games is enough to take it seriously. For this game, Dallas moving the ball against Green Bay is the harder ask than the reverse.
GB: 181 passing yards allowed per game to DAL's 227
46 YPGDAL is at 227 passing yards allowed per game over 5 games; GB is at 181 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.
GB: 44.3% third downs allowed to DAL's 52.6%
8.3 PPDAL is at 52.6% third downs allowed over 5 games; GB is at 44.3% over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 17.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
DAL and GB are even since 2025
0-0-1 SERIESThe only recent meeting ended in a 40-40 tie in Dallas on Sep 28 last season. Both offenses moved the ball at will that day, and neither defense could get a stop when it mattered. One game is a thin sample, but it is the only head-to-head evidence there is, and it points toward points rather than a clear edge for either side, with this one moving to Green Bay.
REPLACEMENT
Josh Jacobs (RB) is out for GB
OUTThe out tag here reflects Jacobs sitting on the Commissioner's Exempt List for a personal matter, not an injury. The report from Oct 16 says he comes off the list Monday and could play as soon as Week 7 at Detroit, which means he will not face Dallas. If you are looking ahead to the Lions game, his return is the news to track.
Aaron Banks (G) is out for GB
OUTBanks is inactive for Sunday night against Dallas with a toe injury, so Green Bay plays without a starting guard. Losing an interior lineman changes the line protecting the quarterback and opening running lanes, and a backup steps into the spot. Toe injuries can linger, so his status from week to week is worth checking. For this game, look at whether Dallas can push the middle of the Packers' line.
Donovan Jennings (G) is out for GB
OUTGB lists Donovan Jennings as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 18.
James Houston (LB) is out for DAL
OUTDAL lists James Houston as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 18.
Alijah Clark (S) is out for DAL
OUTDAL lists Alijah Clark as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 18.
DeMarvion Overshown (LB) is out for DAL
OUTDAL lists DeMarvion Overshown as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 18.
Jager Burton (C) is out for GB
OUTGB lists Jager Burton as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 18.
Benjamin St-Juste (CB) is out for GB
OUTGB lists Benjamin St-Juste as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 18.
Drew Shelton (OT) is out for DAL
OUTOffensive tackle Drew Shelton is out for Dallas at Green Bay, per the Oct 18 report. Out means he will not play. The report gives no injury or depth detail, so if he was a starter, a backup tackle protects the quarterback against the Packers pass rush, and that matters more for sacks and pressure than for the point spread.
Cobie Durant (CB) is out for DAL
OUTDallas lists cornerback Cobie Durant as out for Sunday at Green Bay, reported Oct 18. Out means he is not playing. No injury is given, so the size of the hit comes down to his snap share, but a missing corner means someone deeper on the depth chart covers Green Bay receivers, which is the spot to think about for Packers passing numbers.
Camden Brown (WR) is out for DAL
OUTDallas has Camden Brown listed as out for the trip to Green Bay, per the Oct 18 report. Out means he will not play Sunday, so there is no game-time decision to wait on. The report gives no injury or role, so judge how much this matters by how much he has been used, and check who Dallas lists behind him at receiver before reading anything into a Dallas passing prop.
Emari Demercado (RB) is out for DAL
OUTDemercado is inactive for Sunday night in Green Bay as a coach's decision, which means he is healthy and Dallas chose to leave him off the game-day roster. That points to a depth or special-teams call more than a problem with the backfield. The carries stay with the backs who are active, so his absence should not change how Dallas runs the ball.
KaVontae Turpin (WR) is questionable for DAL
QUESTIONABLETurpin (ribs) is questionable to return to Sunday night's matchup against Green Bay, Tommy Yarrish of the Cowboys' official site reports. Reported Oct 19.
Dee Winters (LB) is questionable for DAL
QUESTIONABLEWinters (ankle) is questionable to return to Sunday night's contest against Green Bay, Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. Reported Oct 19.
Micah Parsons (DE) is pup-r for GB
PUP-RThe Packers aren't planning on opening Parsons' (knee) 21-day practice window this week ahead of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Oct 12.
Skyy Moore (WR) is on injured reserve for GB
IRThe Packers placed Moore (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 17.
Jordon Riley (DT) is pup-r for GB
PUP-RRiley (Achilles) had his 21-day practice window opened by the Packers on Wednesday, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. Reported Oct 15.
Chris Brooks (RB) is on injured reserve for GB
IRThe Packers placed Brooks (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 10.
Javon Hargrave (DT) is on injured reserve for GB
IRThe Packers placed Hargrave (Achilles) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 18.
Jonathan Ford (DT) is on injured reserve for GB
IRThe Packers placed Ford (calf) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 18.
Edgerrin Cooper (LB) is on injured reserve for GB
IRCooper (Achilles) was placed on injured reserve by the Packers on Tuesday. Reported Oct 6.
PRACTICE REPORT
Javon Hargrave
OutAchilles · Did not practice · Out
Jonathan Ford
OutCalf · Did not practice · Out
Cobie Durant
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Drew Shelton
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Benjamin St-Juste
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Skyy Moore
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Jordon Riley
DoubtfulAchilles · Limited practice · Doubtful
Aaron Banks
QuestionableKnee, Toe · Limited practice · Questionable
Brandon Cisse
QuestionableHip · Limited practice · Questionable
Savion Williams
QuestionableAnkle · Limited practice · Questionable
Ameer Speed
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
Jacob Monk
QuestionableQuadricep · Limited practice · Questionable
Joey Porter Jr.
QuestionableAnkle · Limited practice · Questionable
Anthony Campbell
QuestionableAnkle · Limited practice · Questionable
LT Overton
QuestionableFoot · Did not practice · Questionable
DeMarvion Overshown
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Keisean Nixon
LPLimited practice
Devonte Wyatt
LPLimited practice
Lukas Van Ness
FPFull practice
Shavon Revel Jr.
FPFull practice
James Houston
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Tyler Guyton
FPFull practice
Tyler Smith
FPFull practice
CeeDee Lamb
FPFull practice
Von Miller
FPFull practice
Alijah Clark
FPCoach's Decision · Full practice
Evan Williams
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
DAL: 49.2% third-down conversion rate to GB's 27.6%
21.6 PPDallas is converting 49.2% on third down over five games, up from 41.1% last season, while Green Bay has crashed to 27.6% after 48.8% last year. Third-down rates move a lot in small samples, and Green Bay's drop is too sharp to fully trust. Expect the Packers to climb back toward their norm, especially at home. Fade the idea that Green Bay simply can't sustain drives.
DAL: 23.2 first downs per game to GB's 17.2
6 FDDallas moves the chains 23.2 times a game, almost identical to last season's 23.1, so that looks like who the Cowboys are. Green Bay has dropped to 17.2 from 19.6 over five games, which leaves room for a rebound. At Lambeau, Dallas likely controls the play count, and the Packers need bigger chunk plays to keep pace.
DAL has 3 more days of rest
10d vs 7dDallas comes in with three extra days off a bye, while Green Bay is on its usual seven-day week at home. That gives the Cowboys a little more recovery and prep time to offset playing on the road. The gap is fixed by the calendar. It is a small edge, so it matters most if the matchup is otherwise close.
DAL (2-3) at GB (3-2)
-10 PT GAPGreen Bay has won two straight at 3-2, yet sits at -8, so the record runs ahead of the scoring. Dallas is 2-3 at +2, the opposite story: better margins than results. Both are 1-1 in their venue splits. These records likely drift toward each other, making this a spot where the standings make Green Bay look stronger than the numbers do.
AFTER GARY
DAL -106 → -112
GARY +1.37PPGary's number was -106; the market closed at -112.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 15, 2026 at 5:20 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKDAK PRESCOTTPASSING YARDS OVER 272.5
I'm taking Dak Prescott over 272.5 passing yards at -113. This number sits right on top of what he has done all year, and tonight's game is built for him to throw.
Prescott is averaging 276 passing yards a game on more than 38 attempts. His only clunker was 175 in the opener at New York. Since then he has gone 279, 276, 335 and 316, and that 316 came against a Tampa defense that pressured him 13 times and picked him twice. This offense throws because it has to. Javonte Williams is at 3.7 yards a carry, and Dallas sits third from the bottom in rushing. Klayton Adams said himself that the Cowboys have been punching with one hand. That hand is Dak's.
The matchup helps him. Green Bay's pass defense numbers look good, but it built them against Carson Wentz, Geno Smith, Michael Penix, an undrafted rookie in Tampa and two Chicago backups. Prescott is the first real quarterback this unit has seen, and he brings an offense that ranks third in points per drive and has faced one of the tougher schedules of defenses. The Packers also come in thinner than they were a week ago. Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Ford went to injured reserve Saturday, Benjamin St-Juste is out, and Brandon Cisse is questionable with a hip. The trusted corners are Cisse and Keisean Nixon, and CeeDee Lamb is coming off 17 catches against Houston two weeks ago.
Game script points the same way. Dallas allows 168.4 rushing yards and 7.8 net yards per pass attempt, so Jordan Love and that Watson and Golden group should score. A Cowboys team that keeps trading possessions keeps Dak dropping back into the fourth quarter.
Here's what worries me. Jonathan Gannon runs a pressure defense with one of the league's highest pressure rates, and Prescott admitted Dallas did not handle the blitz well last week. Xavier McKinney already has three interceptions and the Green Bay safeties have covered for a lot. The wind is forecast to gust past 20 at kickoff, Dak's road numbers trail his home numbers, and Adams wants more of Tyler Goodson and the run game. This line has also climbed seven yards from last week. I still see too much volume and too soft a back end to sit under it.
- GARY'S PICKPIERRE STRONG JR.RECEIVING YARDS UNDER 11.5
I'm taking Pierre Strong Jr. under 11.5 receiving yards at -110. The sample here is tiny: one game in this offense. Even so, his role and this opponent both point toward a short night through the air.
Strong debuted last week against Chicago with Chris Brooks out. He played 25 of 61 snaps and caught three of four targets for 11 yards. That's the profile: a rotational back catching short balls in the flat, with no room built in. He shares the backfield with MarShawn Lloyd, who scored twice last week and caught five passes at Tampa the week before, and Kaleb Johnson also takes carries. Green Bay's passing game runs through Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft, and Savion Williams is back off injured reserve to add another target.
The matchup matters more than anything else. Dallas has given up just 17 catches for 106 yards to running backs over five games, about 21 receiving yards a week to the entire position group. Offenses don't need to throw to backs against this defense because they can hand off. The Cowboys allow 168.4 rushing yards a game, the league's worst, and Green Bay's own coverage this week calls the game a golden opportunity to finally get the run going. When the Packers run on early downs and pick up yardage, they face fewer third and longs, and those are the downs that produce checkdown targets for a back like Strong.
Here's the strongest case against me. Green Bay's receiver room is depleted, with Jayden Reed and Skyy Moore gone. Malachi Lawrence is getting more snaps on the Dallas edge, and pressure tends to push throws to the back. If Dallas takes a lead, the Packers end up in passing downs, which is exactly where Strong plays. One designed screen can clear this number, and he finished one yard short of it last week. I'm betting the Packers lean on the ground and that his catches stay short.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
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