Cleveland Browns picks

Two 5-2 division rivals meet at Acrisure Stadium a month after Cleveland stole a 27-24 game on a 56-yard kick with 15 seconds left. Pittsburgh is laying 3.5 at home, and I'm taking the points, but only with the hook. Start with how close these teams are. Cleveland gains 5.1 yards a play and allows 5.1. Pittsburgh gains 5.2 and allows 5.0. The Steelers are a bit better and they're at home, but this number asks them to beat by more than a field goal a team that just played them to three. Cleveland's front is also healthier than the one Pittsburgh saw on Oct 1. Mason Graham left that game in the first quarter, and the Browns still sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, forced 10 bad throws and picked off two passes. Graham is back. Mike Hall Jr., who had a sack in that game, practiced fully Saturday after missing three games. Pittsburgh's line has given up five sacks in two of its last four games. Rodgers also has fewer weapons. Roman Wilson caught a touchdown and a 49-yarder in the first meeting and is now on IR along with Michael Pittman Jr. Ben Skowronek is questionable. The Steelers had no play of 20-plus yards at Tampa and scored 16 against the Saints. They're also coming home from Paris with no bye until after this game. The risks are real. Cleveland has been outscored 146-133, every win came by three or four points, and three of them came on kicks in the final 15 seconds. Tytus Howard didn't practice all week with a concussion. If the starting right tackle sits, Dawand Jones draws T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig, and Deshaun Watson has already taken 25 sacks. The Browns convert just 33% of their third downs. Nickel corner Myles Harden, whom Rodgers targeted for 117 yards and a score last time, was limited all week. If Howard and Harden are both ruled out, I'd stay away. At +3, I'd pass.