Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  ZAY FLOWERSRECEIVING YARDS OVER 57.5

  NFLBaltimore Ravens· -113

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 66

  GARY'S TAKE

  Zay Flowers over 57.5 receiving yards at -113. This number sat at 67.5 a week ago and 71.5 the week before. The book took ten yards off because Lamar Jackson is out again, and I think it cut too much. Flowers is the one Baltimore receiver a defense has to account for on every snap. Elijah Sarratt and tight end Matt Hibner are inactive, and Ja'Kobi Lane is questionable after missing four straight games, so the target tree is thin. Over the last three weeks no Raven has been thrown to more. The matchup suits him. After Trevor Lawrence carved up Cleveland's zone coverage in the opener, Mike Rutenberg moved toward man coverage and has leaned on it since, most heavily against Pittsburgh. Man coverage is where a quick separator wins, and it gives a backup quarterback a clear answer early in the down. Cleveland has allowed 826 yards to wide receivers in five games. The Browns are also without Mason Graham, Mike Hall Jr. and Kalia Davis inside, which should pull safeties toward Derrick Henry and open the middle of the field. Huntley has already shown how he uses Flowers: nine targets and eight catches at Atlanta. He also had a 26-yard grab on the tying drive that came off the board only because Baltimore accepted a 29-yard penalty. Count that catch and he clears this line comfortably. The case against is real. His three big games this season came with Jackson behind center for at least half the snaps, and Huntley is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt to Jackson's 10.1. At Atlanta the catches were short, 53 yards on eight receptions. Denzel Ward can travel with him. If Baltimore builds a lead and leans on Henry, the passing volume shrinks. I still want the most trusted target in a thin room at a line the market just dropped by ten yards.

  ×

  Zay Flowers
  Receiving Yards over 57.5

  -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 66

  Baltimore Ravens

  Read Gary’s Take

  Zay Flowers over 57.5 receiving yards at -113.

  This number sat at 67.5 a week ago and 71.5 the week before. The book took ten yards off because Lamar Jackson is out again, and I think it cut too much. Flowers is the one Baltimore receiver a defense has to account for on every snap. Elijah Sarratt and tight end Matt Hibner are inactive, and Ja'Kobi Lane is questionable after missing four straight games, so the target tree is thin. Over the last three weeks no Raven has been thrown to more.

  The matchup suits him. After Trevor Lawrence carved up Cleveland's zone coverage in the opener, Mike Rutenberg moved toward man coverage and has leaned on it since, most heavily against Pittsburgh. Man coverage is where a quick separator wins, and it gives a backup quarterback a clear answer early in the down. Cleveland has allowed 826 yards to wide receivers in five games. The Browns are also without Mason Graham, Mike Hall Jr. and Kalia Davis inside, which should pull safeties toward Derrick Henry and open the middle of the field.

  Huntley has already shown how he uses Flowers: nine targets and eight catches at Atlanta. He also had a 26-yard grab on the tying drive that came off the board only because Baltimore accepted a 29-yard penalty. Count that catch and he clears this line comfortably.

  The case against is real. His three big games this season came with Jackson behind center for at least half the snaps, and Huntley is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt to Jackson's 10.1. At Atlanta the catches were short, 53 yards on eight receptions. Denzel Ward can travel with him. If Baltimore builds a lead and leans on Henry, the passing volume shrinks. I still want the most trusted target in a thin room at a line the market just dropped by ten yards.

• GARY'S PICK

  TYLER HUNTLEYRUSHING ATTEMPTS OVER 5.5

  NFLBaltimore Ravens· -102

  LOST · ACTUAL 5

  GARY'S TAKE

  Tyler Huntley over 5.5 rushing attempts at -102. I'm laying the field goal with Baltimore today, and this prop fits that read. When Huntley has run the offense for most of a game, he has carried the ball. He had eight carries in each of his two busiest passing games last season and six at Atlanta last week, including the overtime sneak that won it. His low carry totals mostly come from partial appearances, and those are what drag his average down. Cleveland's defense creates scramble chances. Rutenberg plays a lot of man coverage, which leaves defenders with their backs to the quarterback when the pocket breaks down. Baltimore's interior line is also patched together. Rookie Vega Ioane starts at center for a third straight week, Cam Jurgens and Andrew Vorhees are inactive, and Emery Jones Jr. is questionable at right guard. Under pressure, Huntley's instinct is to get out of the pocket and run. The finish matters too. If the Ravens close this out, kneel-downs count as carries, and a road favorite with Henry grinding the clock is a good candidate to end in victory formation. Short yardage is another path: Huntley went to the sneak with the game on the line last week. The risk is plain. Henry owns the goal line and most short-yardage snaps, and he will take the bulk of the designed runs. Huntley's per-game average this season sits below this number, and a clean pocket all afternoon would take the scrambles away. If Cleveland wins, the kneel-downs disappear. At an even price, I'll take the quarterback who runs when the play breaks down, on a team I expect to be protecting a lead late.

  ×

  Tyler Huntley
  Rushing Attempts over 5.5

  -102 · LOST · ACTUAL 5

  Baltimore Ravens

  Read Gary’s Take

  Tyler Huntley over 5.5 rushing attempts at -102.

  I'm laying the field goal with Baltimore today, and this prop fits that read. When Huntley has run the offense for most of a game, he has carried the ball. He had eight carries in each of his two busiest passing games last season and six at Atlanta last week, including the overtime sneak that won it. His low carry totals mostly come from partial appearances, and those are what drag his average down.

  Cleveland's defense creates scramble chances. Rutenberg plays a lot of man coverage, which leaves defenders with their backs to the quarterback when the pocket breaks down. Baltimore's interior line is also patched together. Rookie Vega Ioane starts at center for a third straight week, Cam Jurgens and Andrew Vorhees are inactive, and Emery Jones Jr. is questionable at right guard. Under pressure, Huntley's instinct is to get out of the pocket and run.

  The finish matters too. If the Ravens close this out, kneel-downs count as carries, and a road favorite with Henry grinding the clock is a good candidate to end in victory formation. Short yardage is another path: Huntley went to the sneak with the game on the line last week.

  The risk is plain. Henry owns the goal line and most short-yardage snaps, and he will take the bulk of the designed runs. Huntley's per-game average this season sits below this number, and a clean pocket all afternoon would take the scrambles away. If Cleveland wins, the kneel-downs disappear. At an even price, I'll take the quarterback who runs when the play breaks down, on a team I expect to be protecting a lead late.

• GARY'S PICK

  TYLER HUNTLEYPASSING COMPLETIONS OVER 16.5

  NFLBaltimore Ravens· -135

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 19

  GARY'S TAKE

  Tyler Huntley over 16.5 completions at -135. Huntley went 24 of 32 at Atlanta in his first full start this year, finishing on eleven straight completions, and he was 8 of 9 in relief against Tennessee. Last December at Green Bay he went 16 of 20. His game is getting the ball out on time to the first open man, and Declan Doyle builds around that: screens to Derrick Henry, quick throws to Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, and plenty of underneath work. A quarterback who throws like that gets you completions as long as he gets attempts. The attempts should be there. The spread is three, so this projects as a one-score game deep into the fourth quarter, which keeps Baltimore balanced instead of salting it away on the ground. Cleveland's defense has faced about 39 dropbacks a game and allows nearly 240 passing yards per game. Mason Graham isn't expected to play, so Huntley should see less pressure up the middle and have more clean pockets for his quick game. Last week the market had him at 17.5. Dropping to 16.5 after a 24 completion game gives me the better number. The risk is volume. Atlanta took overtime and 72 snaps to produce those 24 completions, and his Green Bay start was exactly 16. Baltimore throws less than the situation calls for, and with Quinshon Judkins inactive and Raheim Sanders on injured reserve, Cleveland may not score enough to force the Ravens to throw late. If Baltimore leads by two scores in the second half, Henry gets the ball and this stalls in the mid-teens. Two full starts is a thin sample, and -135 is a steep price. I'll pay it. He completes what he throws, the pocket should be cleaner than usual, and a close division game keeps him throwing. Over 16.5.

  ×

  Tyler Huntley
  Passing Completions over 16.5

  -135 · CASHED · ACTUAL 19

  Baltimore Ravens

  Read Gary’s Take

  Tyler Huntley over 16.5 completions at -135.

  Huntley went 24 of 32 at Atlanta in his first full start this year, finishing on eleven straight completions, and he was 8 of 9 in relief against Tennessee. Last December at Green Bay he went 16 of 20. His game is getting the ball out on time to the first open man, and Declan Doyle builds around that: screens to Derrick Henry, quick throws to Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, and plenty of underneath work. A quarterback who throws like that gets you completions as long as he gets attempts.

  The attempts should be there. The spread is three, so this projects as a one-score game deep into the fourth quarter, which keeps Baltimore balanced instead of salting it away on the ground. Cleveland's defense has faced about 39 dropbacks a game and allows nearly 240 passing yards per game. Mason Graham isn't expected to play, so Huntley should see less pressure up the middle and have more clean pockets for his quick game. Last week the market had him at 17.5. Dropping to 16.5 after a 24 completion game gives me the better number.

  The risk is volume. Atlanta took overtime and 72 snaps to produce those 24 completions, and his Green Bay start was exactly 16. Baltimore throws less than the situation calls for, and with Quinshon Judkins inactive and Raheim Sanders on injured reserve, Cleveland may not score enough to force the Ravens to throw late. If Baltimore leads by two scores in the second half, Henry gets the ball and this stalls in the mid-teens. Two full starts is a thin sample, and -135 is a steep price.

  I'll pay it. He completes what he throws, the pocket should be cleaner than usual, and a close division game keeps him throwing. Over 16.5.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.