Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
O/U 38.5 · SPREAD Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 · Acrisure Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Cleveland Browns +3.5 -112
- Published odds
- -112
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 6-27
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 48 moves| Market | Opened Oct 25 6:01 PM | Close Sun 12:30 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-105) | Price |
| TOTAL | 39.5 (-108) | 39 (-110) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 | Pittsburgh Steelers -210 | −10 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 25 6:01 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-112) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Oct 25 7:12 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-110) | 39.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Oct 25 7:23 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-108) | 39.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Oct 25 8:53 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-108) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Oct 25 9:23 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-108) | 39.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Oct 26 12:23 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-108) | 38.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Oct 26 12:53 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-108) | 38.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Oct 26 8:31 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 38.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Oct 26 10:01 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 38.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Oct 26 11:32 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 38.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Oct 26 12:02 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 38.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Oct 26 1:02 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 38.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155 |
| Oct 26 3:03 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 38.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -185 · Cleveland Browns +155 |
| Oct 26 5:35 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 38.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155 |
| Oct 26 5:45 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 39.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155 |
| Oct 27 12:01 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155 |
| Oct 27 2:01 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-115) | 39.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · Cleveland Browns +145 |
| Oct 27 3:01 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39.5 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155 |
| Oct 27 4:02 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155 |
| Oct 27 6:02 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Oct 28 1:48 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Oct 29 12:51 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155 |
| Thu 6:30 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Thu 7:30 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Thu 9:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Thu 5:24 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Fri 8:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Fri 9:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Fri 11:37 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Fri 3:02 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Fri 6:02 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Fri 7:02 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Sat 10:01 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Sat 2:32 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Sat 4:34 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Sat 5:04 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Sat 5:34 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Sun 4:45 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Sun 6:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Sun 7:01 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Sun 7:31 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 39 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Sun 8:01 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160 |
| Sun 8:31 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Sun 9:20 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39.5 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Sun 10:41 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108) | 39 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Sun 11:52 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 39 (-108) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Sun 12:00 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 39 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165 |
| Sun 12:13 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 39 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -210 · Cleveland Browns +170 |
| CLOSESun 12:30 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-105) | 39 (-110) | Pittsburgh Steelers -210 · Cleveland Browns +170 |
The read
Two 5-2 division rivals meet at Acrisure Stadium a month after Cleveland stole a 27-24 game on a 56-yard kick with 15 seconds left. Pittsburgh is laying 3.5 at home, and I'm taking the points, but only with the hook.
Start with how close these teams are. Cleveland gains 5.1 yards a play and allows 5.1. Pittsburgh gains 5.2 and allows 5.0. The Steelers are a bit better and they're at home, but this number asks them to beat by more than a field goal a team that just played them to three.
Cleveland's front is also healthier than the one Pittsburgh saw on Oct 1. Mason Graham left that game in the first quarter, and the Browns still sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, forced 10 bad throws and picked off two passes. Graham is back. Mike Hall Jr., who had a sack in that game, practiced fully Saturday after missing three games. Pittsburgh's line has given up five sacks in two of its last four games.
Rodgers also has fewer weapons. Roman Wilson caught a touchdown and a 49-yarder in the first meeting and is now on IR along with Michael Pittman Jr. Ben Skowronek is questionable. The Steelers had no play of 20-plus yards at Tampa and scored 16 against the Saints. They're also coming home from Paris with no bye until after this game.
The risks are real. Cleveland has been outscored 146-133, every win came by three or four points, and three of them came on kicks in the final 15 seconds. Tytus Howard didn't practice all week with a concussion. If the starting right tackle sits, Dawand Jones draws T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig, and Deshaun Watson has already taken 25 sacks. The Browns convert just 33% of their third downs. Nickel corner Myles Harden, whom Rodgers targeted for 117 yards and a score last time, was limited all week. If Howard and Harden are both ruled out, I'd stay away. At +3, I'd pass.
Injuries noted
Cleveland Browns: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (PUP-R) — out; Damarri Mathis (IR) — ir; Elijah Chatman (IR) — The Browns reverted Chatman (quadriceps) to IR on Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Kalia Davis (IR) — Davis (quadriceps) will spend the rest of the 2026 season on injured reserve after his 21-day practice window expired Tuesday.; Edefuan Ulofoshio (IR) — Ulofoshio (biceps) reverted to the Browns' IR on Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Alex Wright (IR) — The Browns placed Wright on injured reserve Sunday due to a ruptured Achilles.; Teven Jenkins (IR) — The Browns placed Jenkins (back) on injured reserve Saturday.; Raheim Sanders (IR) — The Browns placed Sanders (hip) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Myles Harden (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Harden (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.; Daniel Thomas (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Thomas (ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.; Tytus Howard (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: concussion; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP.; Elgton Jenkins (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Grant Delpit (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: neck; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jared Verse (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Mike Hall Jr. (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Dylan Sampson (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Carson Schwesinger (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Mason Graham (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Daequan Hardy (IR) — Hardy (undisclosed) reverted to Pittsburgh's injured reserve Tuesday.; Cole Burgess (IR) — ir; Logan Lee (IR) — ir; Jack Driscoll (IR-R) — The Steelers placed Driscoll (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return.; Gennings Dunker (IR) — The Steelers placed Dunker (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Michael Pittman Jr. (IR) — The Steelers placed Pittman (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.; Derrick Harmon (IR) — The Steelers placed Harmon (foot) on injured reserve Monday.; Ben Skowronek (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: calf; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Skowronek (calf) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Browns.; Roman Wilson (IR) — Wilson (finger) was placed on injured reserve Saturday.; Brandin Echols (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Echols (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.; Sebastian Joseph-Day (IR) — Joseph-Day (triceps) was placed on injured reserve by the Steelers on Thursday.; Doneiko Slaughter (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Slaughter (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.; Cameron Heyward (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jalen Ramsey (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: wrist; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; T.J. Watt (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Alex Highsmith (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: groin; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Darnell Washington (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Aaron Rodgers is the projected starting quarterback for PIT
6.46 Y/AThrough 7 games in 2026, Aaron Rodgers threw for 1699 passing yards, completed 61.6% of his passes and averaged 6.46 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3322 yards, completed 65.7% and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 13-5 touchdown-to-interception line is 7 games in.
Deshaun Watson is the projected starting quarterback for CLE
7.06 Y/AThrough 7 games in 2026, Deshaun Watson threw for 1482 passing yards, completed 64.8% of his passes and averaged 7.06 yards per attempt. His 7-3 touchdown-to-interception line rounds out the current sample without turning an early-season profile into a settled one.
TRENCHES
PIT: 91 rushing yards allowed per game to CLE's 116.4
25.4 YPGPittsburgh allows 91 rushing yards a game over seven games, while Cleveland gives up 116.4 over seven. The Steelers' run defense has been stout across a fair sample. At home, that makes it harder for the Browns to lean on the ground, a useful frame for Cleveland rushing props.
PASS RUSH
CLE: 19 sack yards lost per game to PIT's 25.1
6.1 YDSCLE is at 19 sack yards lost per game over 7 games; PIT is at 25.1 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season CLE was at 20.3 over 17 games and PIT at 14.8 over 17 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
CLE @ PIT carries a 38.5 market total
38.5At 38.5, the lowest number here, 7 points under the 45.5 median, the market expects a grinding game in Pittsburgh where points come slowly and in small pieces. For that to break, someone has to hit a big play or win the turnover battle with a short field. Low totals can go over on one or two fluky scores, so a single early touchdown changes the math more than usual.
PIT: 31:38 time of possession per game to CLE's 29:27
2:11 TOPCLE is at 29:27 time of possession per game over 7 games; PIT is at 31:38 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season CLE was at 29:18 over 17 games and PIT at 28:25 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
PIT: 0.29 fumbles lost per game to CLE's 0.86
0.57 FUMCleveland is losing fumbles at more than double last season's 0.41, while Pittsburgh stays close to its 0.35. Fumble luck swings a lot over 7 games and usually settles back. Cleveland's number is more likely to fall than stay this high. Don't count on Cleveland giving Pittsburgh extra short fields.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
CLE lead the series with PIT since 2025
2-1 SERIESThe home team has won all three meetings. Cleveland edged Pittsburgh 27-24 on Oct 1 and won a 13-6 grinder in December, both in Cleveland, while Pittsburgh's lone win was a 23-9 rout at home in October of last season. This one is in Pittsburgh, the building where the Steelers handled the Browns last time. Two of the three games were one-score fights, so a close, lower-scoring game is the base case here.
REPLACEMENT
Kalia Davis (DT) is on injured reserve for CLE
IRKalia Davis is done for the season. The 21-day practice window expired with Davis still on injured reserve, so Davis stays on IR for the rest of the year with a quadriceps injury. Cleveland was already playing without Davis, so the Pittsburgh matchup looks the same as it did last week.
Sebastian Joseph-Day (DT) is on injured reserve for PIT
IRPittsburgh placed Joseph-Day on injured reserve Thursday with a triceps injury, reported Oct 23, so he is out against Cleveland. Injured reserve means a multi-week absence for a defensive tackle. The sheet does not say who rotates in for him up front.
Teven Jenkins (G) is on injured reserve for CLE
IRThe Browns put Jenkins on injured reserve Saturday with a back injury, reported Oct 24, so he will not play at Pittsburgh. Losing a guard thins the interior of Cleveland's line for at least several weeks. The sheet does not name his replacement, so consider how Pittsburgh's front attacks the middle of that line.
PRACTICE REPORT
Brandin Echols
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Doneiko Slaughter
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Ben Skowronek
QuestionableCalf · Limited practice · Questionable
Tytus Howard
QuestionableConcussion · Did not practice · Questionable
Myles Harden
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Daniel Thomas
QuestionableAnkle · Limited practice · Questionable
Mason Graham
LPLimited practice
Dylan Sampson
FPFull practice
Alex Highsmith
FPFull practice
Carson Schwesinger
FPFull practice
Mike Hall Jr.
FPFull practice
Grant Delpit
FPFull practice
Jalen Ramsey
FPFull practice
Jared Verse
FPFull practice
Darnell Washington
FPFull practice
T.J. Watt
FPFull practice
Cameron Heyward
FPFull practice
Elgton Jenkins
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
CLE (5-2) at PIT (5-2), a division game
+28 PT GAPThese teams share a 5-2 record, but the scoring tells two different stories: Pittsburgh is +15 and Cleveland is -13. A team winning five of seven while being outscored is usually winning close games, and that kind of record tends to drift back toward the margin. Pittsburgh is 3-0 at home and has won three straight, while Cleveland is 2-2 on the road. The identical records can hide which team has been better.
STREAK
PIT has won 3 straight
W3Pittsburgh has won three in a row and sits at 5-2, so they are playing well right now. The sheet does not say who those three wins came against, so how much of the streak was earned against good teams is unclear. A three-game run is a short sample, and streaks this length often end without much warning. For this game, start with the 5-2 record, which covers seven games, and weigh the streak less than the full season.
TEAM RECORD
PIT is 3-0 at home; CLE is 2-2 on the road
3-0The site split favours PIT: PIT has played 3 games at home this season and CLE 4 games away from it. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-31.
AFC NORTH game: CLE 2-0, PIT 1-1 in the division
DIVISIONThese two share the AFC NORTH. CLE is 2-0 against it, PIT is 1-1. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-31.
AFTER GARY
CLE +3.5 → +3.5
NOW +1.61PPGary's number was 3.5; the market closed at 3.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKQUINSHON JUDKINSRUSHING YARDS UNDER 46.5
The Pittsburgh front has been choking off running backs for a month. The Saints backs got 11 yards on 14 carries in Paris, Tampa's backs managed 63, and Jonathan Taylor and the Colts backs finished with 61. Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt got a rest day Wednesday and were full by Thursday, so this front shows up fresh at home.
Judkins also no longer has the backfield to himself. Dylan Sampson came off IR last week, played almost half the snaps and turned six carries into 45 yards. Cleveland will keep feeding him. Right tackle Tytus Howard didn't practice once this week with a concussion, so Dawand Jones likely starts against this edge group.
When Judkins saw this defense in October he needed 17 carries to reach 53 yards, and nobody was splitting his work that night. Now he has fewer carries against a front that has gotten stingier. Cleveland is also the road underdog and may spend the second half throwing. I like him to finish short of this number.
- GARY'S PICKAARON RODGERSPASSING YARDS OVER 217.5
Rodgers threw for 299 yards on 40 attempts in the first meeting, and the Browns never found an answer for the slot. Myles Harden gave up 117 yards in coverage that night. He is questionable with a hamstring after three limited practices. The next man at nickel, Noah Igbinoghene, has been inactive the last two weeks. Whichever of them plays, Rodgers gets a target worth testing.
The receiving group is intact. Metcalf and Germie Bernard have both had big target days since Pittman went down. Darnell Washington was only resting this week. Pat Freiermuth gives Rodgers a reliable underneath option. Rodgers has cleared this line in nearly all of his starts. The 212 against New Orleans came in a 15 mph wind in a game Pittsburgh was sitting on, and the New England game was a mess from the opening drive.
This is a division game with a field goal spread, so I expect it to stay close and keep him throwing into the fourth quarter. The forecast is calm and dry, so the weather won't cut into his passing. Cleveland got home five times on him in October, and that is the risk. Even so, he still threw for nearly 300 in that game. I'll take the over at a fair price.
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