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NFL · Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

O/U 38.5 · SPREAD Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 · Acrisure Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Browns +3.5
NFL@ Steelers· -112

Browns
+3.5

-112 · LOST · CLE 6 · PIT 27

Steelers

The pick & result

Published pick
Cleveland Browns +3.5 -112
Published odds
-112
Result
Lost
Final score
6-27

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 48 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 25 6:01 PM
Close
Sun 12:30 PM
Move
SPREADPittsburgh Steelers -4 (-112)Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-105)Price
TOTAL39.5 (-108)39 (-110)−½
MONEYLINEPittsburgh Steelers -200Pittsburgh Steelers -210−10
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 25 6:01 PMPittsburgh Steelers -4 (-112)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Oct 25 7:12 PMPittsburgh Steelers -4 (-110)39.5 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Oct 25 7:23 PMPittsburgh Steelers -4 (-108)39.5 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Oct 25 8:53 PMPittsburgh Steelers -4 (-108)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Oct 25 9:23 PMPittsburgh Steelers -4 (-108)39.5 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Oct 26 12:23 AMPittsburgh Steelers -4 (-108)38.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Oct 26 12:53 AMPittsburgh Steelers -4 (-108)38.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Oct 26 8:31 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)38.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160
Oct 26 10:01 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)38.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Oct 26 11:32 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)38.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160
Oct 26 12:02 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)38.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Oct 26 1:02 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)38.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155
Oct 26 3:03 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)38.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -185 · Cleveland Browns +155
Oct 26 5:35 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)38.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155
Oct 26 5:45 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)39.5 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155
Oct 27 12:01 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155
Oct 27 2:01 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3 (-115)39.5 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -175 · Cleveland Browns +145
Oct 27 3:01 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39.5 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155
Oct 27 4:02 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155
Oct 27 6:02 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160
Oct 28 1:48 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Oct 29 12:51 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +155
Thu 6:30 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160
Thu 7:30 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Thu 9:00 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Thu 5:24 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Fri 8:00 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Fri 9:00 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Fri 11:37 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Fri 3:02 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Fri 6:02 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Fri 7:02 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Sat 10:01 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160
Sat 2:32 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Sat 4:34 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160
Sat 5:04 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160
Sat 5:34 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160
Sun 4:45 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160
Sun 6:00 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -190 · Cleveland Browns +160
Sun 7:01 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Sun 7:31 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105)39 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Sun 8:01 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +160
Sun 8:31 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Sun 9:20 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39.5 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Sun 10:41 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-108)39 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Sun 11:52 AMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)39 (-108)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Sun 12:00 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)39 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Cleveland Browns +165
Sun 12:13 PMPittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110)39 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -210 · Cleveland Browns +170
CLOSESun 12:30 PMPittsburgh Steelers -4 (-105)39 (-110)Pittsburgh Steelers -210 · Cleveland Browns +170

The read

Two 5-2 division rivals meet at Acrisure Stadium a month after Cleveland stole a 27-24 game on a 56-yard kick with 15 seconds left. Pittsburgh is laying 3.5 at home, and I'm taking the points, but only with the hook.

Start with how close these teams are. Cleveland gains 5.1 yards a play and allows 5.1. Pittsburgh gains 5.2 and allows 5.0. The Steelers are a bit better and they're at home, but this number asks them to beat by more than a field goal a team that just played them to three.

Cleveland's front is also healthier than the one Pittsburgh saw on Oct 1. Mason Graham left that game in the first quarter, and the Browns still sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, forced 10 bad throws and picked off two passes. Graham is back. Mike Hall Jr., who had a sack in that game, practiced fully Saturday after missing three games. Pittsburgh's line has given up five sacks in two of its last four games.

Rodgers also has fewer weapons. Roman Wilson caught a touchdown and a 49-yarder in the first meeting and is now on IR along with Michael Pittman Jr. Ben Skowronek is questionable. The Steelers had no play of 20-plus yards at Tampa and scored 16 against the Saints. They're also coming home from Paris with no bye until after this game.

The risks are real. Cleveland has been outscored 146-133, every win came by three or four points, and three of them came on kicks in the final 15 seconds. Tytus Howard didn't practice all week with a concussion. If the starting right tackle sits, Dawand Jones draws T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig, and Deshaun Watson has already taken 25 sacks. The Browns convert just 33% of their third downs. Nickel corner Myles Harden, whom Rodgers targeted for 117 yards and a score last time, was limited all week. If Howard and Harden are both ruled out, I'd stay away. At +3, I'd pass.

Injuries noted

Cleveland Browns: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (PUP-R) — out; Damarri Mathis (IR) — ir; Elijah Chatman (IR) — The Browns reverted Chatman (quadriceps) to IR on Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Kalia Davis (IR) — Davis (quadriceps) will spend the rest of the 2026 season on injured reserve after his 21-day practice window expired Tuesday.; Edefuan Ulofoshio (IR) — Ulofoshio (biceps) reverted to the Browns' IR on Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Alex Wright (IR) — The Browns placed Wright on injured reserve Sunday due to a ruptured Achilles.; Teven Jenkins (IR) — The Browns placed Jenkins (back) on injured reserve Saturday.; Raheim Sanders (IR) — The Browns placed Sanders (hip) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Myles Harden (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Harden (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.; Daniel Thomas (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Thomas (ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers.; Tytus Howard (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: concussion; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP.; Elgton Jenkins (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Grant Delpit (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: neck; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jared Verse (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Mike Hall Jr. (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Dylan Sampson (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Carson Schwesinger (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Mason Graham (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Daequan Hardy (IR) — Hardy (undisclosed) reverted to Pittsburgh's injured reserve Tuesday.; Cole Burgess (IR) — ir; Logan Lee (IR) — ir; Jack Driscoll (IR-R) — The Steelers placed Driscoll (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return.; Gennings Dunker (IR) — The Steelers placed Dunker (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Michael Pittman Jr. (IR) — The Steelers placed Pittman (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.; Derrick Harmon (IR) — The Steelers placed Harmon (foot) on injured reserve Monday.; Ben Skowronek (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: calf; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Skowronek (calf) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Browns.; Roman Wilson (IR) — Wilson (finger) was placed on injured reserve Saturday.; Brandin Echols (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Echols (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.; Sebastian Joseph-Day (IR) — Joseph-Day (triceps) was placed on injured reserve by the Steelers on Thursday.; Doneiko Slaughter (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Slaughter (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Browns.; Cameron Heyward (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jalen Ramsey (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: wrist; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; T.J. Watt (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Alex Highsmith (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: groin; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Darnell Washington (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Aaron Rodgers is the projected starting quarterback for PIT

    6.46 Y/A

    Through 7 games in 2026, Aaron Rodgers threw for 1699 passing yards, completed 61.6% of his passes and averaged 6.46 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3322 yards, completed 65.7% and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 13-5 touchdown-to-interception line is 7 games in.

  • Deshaun Watson is the projected starting quarterback for CLE

    7.06 Y/A

    Through 7 games in 2026, Deshaun Watson threw for 1482 passing yards, completed 64.8% of his passes and averaged 7.06 yards per attempt. His 7-3 touchdown-to-interception line rounds out the current sample without turning an early-season profile into a settled one.

TRENCHES

  • PIT: 91 rushing yards allowed per game to CLE's 116.4

    25.4 YPG

    Pittsburgh allows 91 rushing yards a game over seven games, while Cleveland gives up 116.4 over seven. The Steelers' run defense has been stout across a fair sample. At home, that makes it harder for the Browns to lean on the ground, a useful frame for Cleveland rushing props.

PASS RUSH

  • CLE: 19 sack yards lost per game to PIT's 25.1

    6.1 YDS

    CLE is at 19 sack yards lost per game over 7 games; PIT is at 25.1 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season CLE was at 20.3 over 17 games and PIT at 14.8 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • CLE @ PIT carries a 38.5 market total

    38.5

    At 38.5, the lowest number here, 7 points under the 45.5 median, the market expects a grinding game in Pittsburgh where points come slowly and in small pieces. For that to break, someone has to hit a big play or win the turnover battle with a short field. Low totals can go over on one or two fluky scores, so a single early touchdown changes the math more than usual.

  • PIT: 31:38 time of possession per game to CLE's 29:27

    2:11 TOP

    CLE is at 29:27 time of possession per game over 7 games; PIT is at 31:38 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season CLE was at 29:18 over 17 games and PIT at 28:25 over 17 games.

TURNOVERS

  • PIT: 0.29 fumbles lost per game to CLE's 0.86

    0.57 FUM

    Cleveland is losing fumbles at more than double last season's 0.41, while Pittsburgh stays close to its 0.35. Fumble luck swings a lot over 7 games and usually settles back. Cleveland's number is more likely to fall than stay this high. Don't count on Cleveland giving Pittsburgh extra short fields.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • CLE lead the series with PIT since 2025

    2-1 SERIES

    The home team has won all three meetings. Cleveland edged Pittsburgh 27-24 on Oct 1 and won a 13-6 grinder in December, both in Cleveland, while Pittsburgh's lone win was a 23-9 rout at home in October of last season. This one is in Pittsburgh, the building where the Steelers handled the Browns last time. Two of the three games were one-score fights, so a close, lower-scoring game is the base case here.

REPLACEMENT

  • Kalia Davis (DT) is on injured reserve for CLE

    IR

    Kalia Davis is done for the season. The 21-day practice window expired with Davis still on injured reserve, so Davis stays on IR for the rest of the year with a quadriceps injury. Cleveland was already playing without Davis, so the Pittsburgh matchup looks the same as it did last week.

  • Sebastian Joseph-Day (DT) is on injured reserve for PIT

    IR

    Pittsburgh placed Joseph-Day on injured reserve Thursday with a triceps injury, reported Oct 23, so he is out against Cleveland. Injured reserve means a multi-week absence for a defensive tackle. The sheet does not say who rotates in for him up front.

  • Teven Jenkins (G) is on injured reserve for CLE

    IR

    The Browns put Jenkins on injured reserve Saturday with a back injury, reported Oct 24, so he will not play at Pittsburgh. Losing a guard thins the interior of Cleveland's line for at least several weeks. The sheet does not name his replacement, so consider how Pittsburgh's front attacks the middle of that line.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Brandin Echols

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Doneiko Slaughter

    Out

    Hamstring · Did not practice · Out

  • Ben Skowronek

    Questionable

    Calf · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Tytus Howard

    Questionable

    Concussion · Did not practice · Questionable

  • Myles Harden

    Questionable

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Daniel Thomas

    Questionable

    Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Mason Graham

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Dylan Sampson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Alex Highsmith

    FP

    Full practice

  • Carson Schwesinger

    FP

    Full practice

  • Mike Hall Jr.

    FP

    Full practice

  • Grant Delpit

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jalen Ramsey

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jared Verse

    FP

    Full practice

  • Darnell Washington

    FP

    Full practice

  • T.J. Watt

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cameron Heyward

    FP

    Full practice

  • Elgton Jenkins

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • CLE (5-2) at PIT (5-2), a division game

    +28 PT GAP

    These teams share a 5-2 record, but the scoring tells two different stories: Pittsburgh is +15 and Cleveland is -13. A team winning five of seven while being outscored is usually winning close games, and that kind of record tends to drift back toward the margin. Pittsburgh is 3-0 at home and has won three straight, while Cleveland is 2-2 on the road. The identical records can hide which team has been better.

STREAK

  • PIT has won 3 straight

    W3

    Pittsburgh has won three in a row and sits at 5-2, so they are playing well right now. The sheet does not say who those three wins came against, so how much of the streak was earned against good teams is unclear. A three-game run is a short sample, and streaks this length often end without much warning. For this game, start with the 5-2 record, which covers seven games, and weigh the streak less than the full season.

TEAM RECORD

  • PIT is 3-0 at home; CLE is 2-2 on the road

    3-0

    The site split favours PIT: PIT has played 3 games at home this season and CLE 4 games away from it. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-31.

  • AFC NORTH game: CLE 2-0, PIT 1-1 in the division

    DIVISION

    These two share the AFC NORTH. CLE is 2-0 against it, PIT is 1-1. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-31.

AFTER GARY

  • CLE +3.5 → +3.5

    NOW +1.61PP

    Gary's number was 3.5; the market closed at 3.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    QUINSHON JUDKINSRUSHING YARDS UNDER 46.5
    NFLCleveland Browns· -115

    Quinshon Judkins
    Rushing Yards under 46.5

    -115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 25

    Cleveland Browns

    The Pittsburgh front has been choking off running backs for a month. The Saints backs got 11 yards on 14 carries in Paris, Tampa's backs managed 63, and Jonathan Taylor and the Colts backs finished with 61. Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt got a rest day Wednesday and were full by Thursday, so this front shows up fresh at home.

    Judkins also no longer has the backfield to himself. Dylan Sampson came off IR last week, played almost half the snaps and turned six carries into 45 yards. Cleveland will keep feeding him. Right tackle Tytus Howard didn't practice once this week with a concussion, so Dawand Jones likely starts against this edge group.

    When Judkins saw this defense in October he needed 17 carries to reach 53 yards, and nobody was splitting his work that night. Now he has fewer carries against a front that has gotten stingier. Cleveland is also the road underdog and may spend the second half throwing. I like him to finish short of this number.

  • GARY'S PICK
    AARON RODGERSPASSING YARDS OVER 217.5
    NFLPittsburgh Steelers· -111

    Aaron Rodgers
    Passing Yards over 217.5

    -111 · LOST · ACTUAL 172

    Pittsburgh Steelers

    Rodgers threw for 299 yards on 40 attempts in the first meeting, and the Browns never found an answer for the slot. Myles Harden gave up 117 yards in coverage that night. He is questionable with a hamstring after three limited practices. The next man at nickel, Noah Igbinoghene, has been inactive the last two weeks. Whichever of them plays, Rodgers gets a target worth testing.

    The receiving group is intact. Metcalf and Germie Bernard have both had big target days since Pittman went down. Darnell Washington was only resting this week. Pat Freiermuth gives Rodgers a reliable underneath option. Rodgers has cleared this line in nearly all of his starts. The 212 against New Orleans came in a 15 mph wind in a game Pittsburgh was sitting on, and the New England game was a mess from the opening drive.

    This is a division game with a field goal spread, so I expect it to stay close and keep him throwing into the fourth quarter. The forecast is calm and dry, so the weather won't cut into his passing. Cleveland got home five times on him in October, and that is the risk. Even so, he still threw for nearly 300 in that game. I'll take the over at a fair price.

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