Cincinnati Bengals picks

The Titans walk into Paycor four days after trading Jeffery Simmons, without Carnell Tate, and getting 12.5 from a Bengals team with one eye on Madrid. The number says blowout. I say Cincinnati hasn't been built to clear it. The Bengals are 4-2, but they've won by 13 or more just twice: by 14 over Houston and by 22 over a Ravens team playing without Lamar Jackson. Through six games they've gained 2,071 yards and allowed 2,080. That's a team winning on turnovers and red-zone finishing, not domination. And they let people back in. They led Tampa by 18 and won by 6. They led Miami 28-10 and won by 7 after giving up 14 in the fourth. Opponents are converting 38 of 79 third downs against this defense. With Chase Brown at 3.5 yards a carry and never topping 80 in a game, they can't sit on a lead with the run. Tennessee is 1-6, but five of those seven games were decided by fewer than 12.5. They play short games, 8 to 11 drives a side, and three times they've found a fourth-quarter touchdown while trailing by 12 to 20. This is their last game before the bye. Cincinnati flies to Madrid Tuesday, has a Ring of Honor ceremony at halftime, and gave its defensive tackles rest days this week. Up 20 in the fourth, I don't see Burrow staying out there to pad it. Blend each offense with the other defense. Bump Cincy for losing Simmons, who had 4 of the Titans' 17 sacks. Dock Tennessee for losing Tate, who has 34 catches for 413 yards. I land around Bengals -10 to -11. That's an edge, not a heist. The risks are real. This Titans defense gave up 399 and 491 yards the last two weeks with Simmons on the field, and Burrow has 8 touchdowns and no picks over his last two games. Cam Ward is at 5.7 yards per attempt with 4 TDs and 5 INTs, and without Tate the big plays get scarcer. A couple of giveaways and this turns into the Houston game. If John Franklin-Myers is inactive, I'd bet smaller, but I'm not laying 12.5 with Cincinnati. Titans +12.5. Small stake.