Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals
O/U 45.5 · SPREAD Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 · Paycor Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Tennessee Titans +12.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 36-43
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 66 moves| Market | Opened Oct 25 6:01 PM | Close Sun 12:53 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 (-108) | +3 |
| TOTAL | 47 (-105) | 46.5 (-108) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Cincinnati Bengals -600 | Cincinnati Bengals -1000 | −400 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 25 6:01 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 47 (-105) | Cincinnati Bengals -600 · Tennessee Titans +450 |
| Oct 25 7:23 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 47 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -625 · Tennessee Titans +450 |
| Oct 25 8:23 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 47 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -600 · Tennessee Titans +450 |
| Oct 25 9:23 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10 (-112) | 47 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -600 · Tennessee Titans +450 |
| Oct 25 10:53 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10 (-112) | 47 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 26 12:23 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 47 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -600 · Tennessee Titans +450 |
| Oct 26 12:53 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10 (-112) | 47 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -600 · Tennessee Titans +450 |
| Oct 26 8:31 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-108) | 47 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -600 · Tennessee Titans +450 |
| Oct 26 11:01 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-112) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 26 11:32 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 26 2:03 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 26 3:03 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -600 · Tennessee Titans +450 |
| Oct 27 10:31 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 27 2:01 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 27 3:01 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 27 9:05 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -525 · Tennessee Titans +400 |
| Oct 28 11:02 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-112) | Cincinnati Bengals -525 · Tennessee Titans +400 |
| Oct 28 11:32 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -525 · Tennessee Titans +400 |
| Oct 28 12:17 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-112) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 28 1:48 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-112) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 28 2:48 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-112) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 28 3:48 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10 (-112) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 28 4:48 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Oct 28 5:48 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Thu 8:00 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Thu 9:00 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-112) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Thu 10:01 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Thu 11:02 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -10.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -550 · Tennessee Titans +425 |
| Thu 11:32 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -11.5 (-110) | 47 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -650 · Tennessee Titans +500 |
| Thu 1:02 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -11.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -650 · Tennessee Titans +500 |
| Thu 1:29 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -11.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -650 · Tennessee Titans +475 |
| Thu 2:02 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -11.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-112) | Cincinnati Bengals -650 · Tennessee Titans +500 |
| Thu 2:32 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -11.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-112) | Cincinnati Bengals -625 · Tennessee Titans +475 |
| Thu 4:36 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -11.5 (-108) | 47 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -625 · Tennessee Titans +475 |
| Thu 5:06 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -11.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-112) | Cincinnati Bengals -625 · Tennessee Titans +475 |
| Fri 12:28 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -11.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -650 · Tennessee Titans +500 |
| Fri 1:55 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -700 · Tennessee Titans +525 |
| Fri 6:00 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -700 · Tennessee Titans +525 |
| Fri 7:00 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -700 · Tennessee Titans +525 |
| Fri 9:00 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -750 · Tennessee Titans +550 |
| Fri 11:37 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -750 · Tennessee Titans +550 |
| Fri 12:38 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -12 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -700 · Tennessee Titans +525 |
| Fri 3:02 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -12 (-118) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -750 · Tennessee Titans +550 |
| Sat 4:45 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -750 · Tennessee Titans +550 |
| Sat 9:00 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -750 · Tennessee Titans +550 |
| Sat 5:34 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -12 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -750 · Tennessee Titans +575 |
| Sat 6:35 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -750 · Tennessee Titans +575 |
| Sat 10:35 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -750 · Tennessee Titans +550 |
| Sat 11:35 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -750 · Tennessee Titans +575 |
| Sun 12:05 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -750 · Tennessee Titans +575 |
| Sun 6:00 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -800 · Tennessee Titans +600 |
| Sun 6:30 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-108) | 46 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -800 · Tennessee Titans +600 |
| Sun 7:01 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -800 · Tennessee Titans +600 |
| Sun 8:01 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-110) | 46 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -800 · Tennessee Titans +600 |
| Sun 8:31 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -12.5 (-110) | 46 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -800 · Tennessee Titans +600 |
| Sun 10:31 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -13 (-105) | 46 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -800 · Tennessee Titans +600 |
| Sun 10:51 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -13 (-108) | 46 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -800 · Tennessee Titans +600 |
| Sun 11:01 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -13 (-108) | 46 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -900 · Tennessee Titans +650 |
| Sun 11:11 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 (-108) | 46 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -900 · Tennessee Titans +625 |
| Sun 11:32 AM | Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 (-105) | 46 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -900 · Tennessee Titans +625 |
| Sun 12:00 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 (-105) | 46 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -900 · Tennessee Titans +625 |
| Sun 12:13 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -900 · Tennessee Titans +650 |
| Sun 12:23 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -900 · Tennessee Titans +650 |
| Sun 12:30 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 (-105) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -900 · Tennessee Titans +650 |
| Sun 12:33 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-110) | Cincinnati Bengals -900 · Tennessee Titans +650 |
| Sun 12:43 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -1000 · Tennessee Titans +675 |
| CLOSESun 12:53 PM | Cincinnati Bengals -13.5 (-108) | 46.5 (-108) | Cincinnati Bengals -1000 · Tennessee Titans +700 |
The read
The Titans walk into Paycor four days after trading Jeffery Simmons, without Carnell Tate, and getting 12.5 from a Bengals team with one eye on Madrid. The number says blowout. I say Cincinnati hasn't been built to clear it.
The Bengals are 4-2, but they've won by 13 or more just twice: by 14 over Houston and by 22 over a Ravens team playing without Lamar Jackson. Through six games they've gained 2,071 yards and allowed 2,080. That's a team winning on turnovers and red-zone finishing, not domination. And they let people back in. They led Tampa by 18 and won by 6. They led Miami 28-10 and won by 7 after giving up 14 in the fourth. Opponents are converting 38 of 79 third downs against this defense. With Chase Brown at 3.5 yards a carry and never topping 80 in a game, they can't sit on a lead with the run.
Tennessee is 1-6, but five of those seven games were decided by fewer than 12.5. They play short games, 8 to 11 drives a side, and three times they've found a fourth-quarter touchdown while trailing by 12 to 20. This is their last game before the bye. Cincinnati flies to Madrid Tuesday, has a Ring of Honor ceremony at halftime, and gave its defensive tackles rest days this week. Up 20 in the fourth, I don't see Burrow staying out there to pad it.
Blend each offense with the other defense. Bump Cincy for losing Simmons, who had 4 of the Titans' 17 sacks. Dock Tennessee for losing Tate, who has 34 catches for 413 yards. I land around Bengals -10 to -11. That's an edge, not a heist.
The risks are real. This Titans defense gave up 399 and 491 yards the last two weeks with Simmons on the field, and Burrow has 8 touchdowns and no picks over his last two games. Cam Ward is at 5.7 yards per attempt with 4 TDs and 5 INTs, and without Tate the big plays get scarcer. A couple of giveaways and this turns into the Houston game. If John Franklin-Myers is inactive, I'd bet smaller, but I'm not laying 12.5 with Cincinnati.
Titans +12.5. Small stake.
Injuries noted
Tennessee Titans: Jaylen Harrell (IR) — ir; Jaren Kanak (IR) — ir; Kendell Brooks (IR) — Brooks (undisclosed) reverted to Tennessee's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Milo Eifler (IR) — ir; Tanoh Kpassagnon (IR) — The Titans placed Kpassagnon (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Dorian Mausi (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: foot; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Full · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full. Mausi (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bengals.; Fernando Carmona (IR) — The Titans placed Carmona (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Jackson Slater (IR) — The Titans placed Slater (foot) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Calvin Ridley (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: hip; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Full. Ridley (hip) is in line to play in Sunday's game against the Bengals.; Tyjae Spears (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Spears (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bengals.; Tommy Townsend (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Townsend (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bengals.; Carnell Tate (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: shoulder; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Tate (shoulder) will not play against the Bengals on Sunday but is expected to be back in action following the Titans' bye for Week 10 against the Jaguars on Sunday, Nov. 15.; John Franklin-Myers (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: groin, back; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited. Franklin-Myers (groin) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Bengals.; Jaylon Jones (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: knee; practice by report day: Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Tony Pollard (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 Full.
Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Parker II (IR-R) — ir; Ja'Sir Taylor (IR-R) — The Bengals placed Taylor (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return.; Andrei Iosivas (IR) — Iosivas (thumb) is making good progress in his rehab.; Jalen Davis (IR) — The Bengals placed Davis (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Swayze Bozeman (IR) — The Bengals placed Bozeman on injured reserve Monday due to a fractured forearm.; Tanner Hudson (IR) — Hudson (pectoral) was placed on injured reserve by the Bengals on Monday.; Erick All Jr. (IR) — Bengals head coach Zac Taylor confirmed Wednesday that All has been diagnosed with a torn ACL in his right knee and will require season-ending surgery.; Kyle Dugger (Out) — Official report, Wk 8: quadricep; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 DNP. Dugger (quadriceps) won't play in Sunday's game against the Titans.; Josh Kattus (Out) — The Bengals placed Kattus (undisclosed) on their practice-squad injured list Tuesday.; Joe Giles-Harris (Questionable) — Official report, Wk 8: calf; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 DNP · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.; Jonathan Allen (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 DNP.; B.J. Hill (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 DNP.; Dexter Lawrence (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player; practice by report day: Sat, Oct 31 DNP.; Ja'Marr Chase (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: not injury related - resting player, ankle; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 DNP · Thu, Oct 29 Full · Sat, Oct 31 Full.; Jordan Battle (No game designation) — Official report, Wk 8: hamstring; practice by report day: Wed, Oct 28 Limited · Thu, Oct 29 Limited · Sat, Oct 31 Limited.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN
5.67 Y/AThrough 7 games in 2026, Cam Ward threw for 1179 passing yards, completed 62% of his passes and averaged 5.67 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3169 yards, completed 59.8% and averaged 5.87 yards per attempt, 15-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-5 touchdown-to-interception line is 7 games in.
Joe Burrow is the projected starting quarterback for CIN
7.55 Y/AThrough 6 games in 2026, Joe Burrow threw for 1653 passing yards, completed 71.7% of his passes and averaged 7.55 yards per attempt. Last season over 8 games he threw for 1809 yards, completed 66.8% and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt, 17-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 15-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 6 games in.
PASS RUSH
CIN: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to TEN's 2.43
1.07 SACKSCincinnati is getting 3.5 sacks a game over six games, against 2.43 for Tennessee over seven. Both units are getting pressure, and the Bengals have done it in one fewer game. At home, Cincinnati's rush gives it the better chance to stall Titans drives, which is the lens for sack props and Tennessee's offensive totals.
PACE & SCRIPT
CIN: 27.2 points per game to TEN's 15.4
11.7 PPGCincinnati is scoring 27.2 a game over six games, up from 24.4 last season, while Tennessee sits at 15.4, close to its 16.7 from last year. Both numbers line up with each team's history, so the gap looks real. TEN's offense has stayed at this level for a season and a half, which makes a sudden jump less likely. Bettors weighing the spread can lean on the idea that TEN needs CIN to stall to keep this close.
CIN: 29:59 time of possession per game to TEN's 24:41
5:18 TOPTEN is at 24:41 time of possession per game over 7 games; CIN is at 29:59 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season TEN was at 29:08 over 17 games and CIN at 30:08 over 17 games.
CIN: 60.5 offensive plays per game to TEN's 54.3
6.2 PLAYSTEN is at 54.3 offensive plays per game over 7 games; CIN is at 60.5 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 31. Last season TEN was at 59.1 over 17 games and CIN at 62.2 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
CIN: 1.5 takeaways per game to TEN's 1
0.5 TOTEN is at 1 takeaways per game over 7 games; CIN is at 1.5 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 31.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
CIN: 5.75 yards per play to TEN's 4.56
1.19 Y/PCincinnati gains 5.75 yards a play over six games to Tennessee's 4.56 over seven. Both are near or above last season, 5.23 for the Bengals and 4.38 for the Titans, so this gap looks real. Joe Burrow found Tee Higgins for 44 and 43 yards last game, while Tennessee's big plays came from a 36-yard Tony Pollard touchdown run and a 26-yard Cam Ward pass. The Bengals look like the team that can hit big shots at home, with the Titans needing longer drives to keep up.
RED ZONE
CIN: 35% red-zone scoring allowed to TEN's 60%
25 PPCincinnati allows scores on just 35% of red-zone trips over 6 games, while Tennessee gives up 60% in its 7. Red-zone rates swing on a few plays, so Cincinnati's number will probably rise some. For now, Tennessee drives deep into Bengals territory are more likely to end in field goals than touchdowns.
MISMATCH
CIN: 264 pass yards a game to TEN's 157.4
264 VS 157.4Cincinnati throws for about a hundred more yards a game than Tennessee, and both teams are moving in opposite directions from last season: the Bengals were at 235.6, the Titans at 166.1. Six and seven games is enough to call it a trend for both. Tennessee's offense is not built to win a shootout, so its path is to run, shorten the game and keep Cincinnati's passing attack on the sideline. If the Titans fall behind early, that plan breaks.
COVERAGE
TEN: 40.7% third downs allowed to CIN's 48.1%
7.4 PPTennessee lets opponents convert 40.7% of third downs over seven games, while Cincinnati allows 48.1% over six. The Bengals are giving up a lot of extended drives. On the road, the Titans' offense should find chances to stay on the field, which matters for time of possession and Tennessee's totals.
REPLACEMENT
Andrei Iosivas (WR) is on injured reserve for CIN
IRIosivas is on injured reserve with a thumb injury, and the latest report says his rehab is making good progress. That points toward a return down the road, but he remains on IR for now with no date set, so Cincinnati's receiver rotation against Tennessee goes on without him.
Dorian Mausi (LB) is ir-r for TEN
IR-RMausi is designated to return from injured reserve with a foot injury but has been ruled out Sunday against the Bengals. Tennessee goes with its current linebackers again, and his return remains a later-week question.
Erick All Jr. (TE) is on injured reserve for CIN
IRAll tore the ACL in his right knee and needs season-ending surgery, his coach confirmed Wednesday. The Bengals lose a tight end for the rest of the year, and that work goes to the remaining tight ends from here on, starting with Tennessee. For bettors, any Cincinnati tight end production now flows to whoever is left at the position.
Tanner Hudson (TE) is on injured reserve for CIN
IRThe Bengals put Hudson on injured reserve Monday with a pectoral injury, reported Oct 19, so he is out against Tennessee. Injured reserve means a multi-week absence. The sheet does not say who picks up his tight end work, so expect Cincinnati to lean on its other options at the position.
PRACTICE REPORT
Carnell Tate
OutShoulder · Did not practice · Out
Tommy Townsend
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Tyjae Spears
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Kyle Dugger
OutQuadricep · Did not practice · Out
Calvin Ridley
QuestionableHip · Full practice · Questionable
Joe Giles-Harris
QuestionableCalf · Limited practice · Questionable
Jaylon Jones
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
John Franklin-Myers
QuestionableGroin, Back · Limited practice · Questionable
B.J. Hill
DNPDid not practice
Dexter Lawrence II
DNPDid not practice
Jonathan Allen
DNPDid not practice
Jordan Battle
LPLimited practice
Ja'Marr Chase
FPFull practice
Tony Pollard
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
TEN (1-6) at CIN (4-2)
+89 PT GAPTennessee is 1-6 and -48, and Cincinnati is 4-2 and +41 with two straight wins, a wide gap on paper. The Titans have been slightly more competitive away from home at 1-2, and the Bengals are just 1-1 at home, so Cincinnati's edge comes from its overall body of work more than this building. A bettor should judge this on the season-long margins, which strongly favor the Bengals.
AFTER GARY
TEN +12.5 → +13.5
NOW +1Gary's number was 12.5; the market closed at 13.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 29, 2026 at 4:20 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKCAM WARDPASSING YARDS UNDER 192.5
The obvious case for the over is game script: Tennessee is a big underdog and should be throwing late. I've watched this offense trail all year, and it doesn't turn into yardage. Against Houston, Ward was buried by three scores most of the afternoon, threw 36 times and finished with 170. His best day of the season was 222 in Baltimore, and he's spent most weeks stuck in the 170s and 180s. The yards per attempt just aren't there.
Now take away Carnell Tate. Tate has been the one receiver who stretches the field for Ward. He had the 145 yard game against the Ravens and most of the team's chunk catches. Calvin Ridley is back from a hip injury that kept him out last week, but his snap counts were uneven even when he was healthy. After that it's Wan'Dale Robinson underneath and Elic Ayomanor, who barely gets targets. That's a short passing game.
Cincinnati's front gets home with numbers: three or four sacks almost every week, with Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe all producing. The Titans line allowed 15 pressures to Houston, and Ward stalls when he's pushed off his spot. Expect check downs to Pollard, a few sacks eating into the total, and a line that's set around what this offense does with Tate on the field.
- GARY'S PICKTEE HIGGINSRECEIVING YARDS OVER 70.5
Higgins is the Bengals receiver who's been getting behind defenses. Last week in Baltimore he caught 43 and 44 yard balls on his way to 148, and he went for 157 against Jacksonville and 90 in Pittsburgh. The Miami game was a short outlier where Burrow spread it to the tight ends and backs near the goal line. When Burrow pushes the ball downfield, it's mostly going to Higgins.
The matchup sets up well. Wide receivers have run up big yardage on this Tennessee secondary nearly every week, and Marcus Harris gave up six catches on six targets for 115 yards to Cleveland. And the one player who made quarterbacks uncomfortable is gone. Jeffery Simmons was traded to Chicago on Thursday and had six pressures by himself in Indianapolis. Without him, the interior is Nazir Stackhouse, Solomon Thomas and a waiver claim, and John Franklin-Myers is questionable with groin and back problems. Burrow should have time to wait on routes that develop.
The risk is a blowout that sends the starters to the bench early. Burrow played 50 of 53 snaps in a 22 point win last week, though, so Cincinnati hasn't been pulling him early. Ja'Marr Chase will draw the safety help, and Higgins should get his deep shots against single coverage early, enough to clear this number.
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