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NFL · Sun, Sep 27 · 1:00 PM

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

O/U 63.5 · SPREAD Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 · Acrisure Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Steelers +3.5
NFLvs Bengals· -120

Steelers
+3.5

-120 · CASHED · CIN 27 · PIT 30

Bengals

The pick & result

Published pick
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 -120
Published odds
-120
Result
Won
Final score
27-30

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 43 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 21 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 27 12:54 PM
Move
SPREADCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -3 (-118)−½
TOTAL42.5 (-110)42.5 (-108)Price
MONEYLINECincinnati Bengals -185Cincinnati Bengals -165+20
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 21 6:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -185 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 21 9:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -175 · Pittsburgh Steelers +145
Sep 21 11:01 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -175 · Pittsburgh Steelers +150
Sep 21 12:32 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -185 · Pittsburgh Steelers +150
Sep 21 1:02 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 21 5:15 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -185 · Pittsburgh Steelers +150
Sep 21 5:25 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -185 · Pittsburgh Steelers +150
Sep 21 7:27 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -185 · Pittsburgh Steelers +150
Sep 22 6:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 22 8:30 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 22 10:32 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 22 3:56 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 22 6:57 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-112)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 22 8:58 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-112)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 22 9:58 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 22 10:58 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 23 6:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 23 2:05 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 23 5:06 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 23 8:07 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +160
Sep 24 2:53 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 25 6:05 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (+100)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -185 · Pittsburgh Steelers +150
Sep 25 7:05 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-105)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 25 9:05 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-102)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -185 · Pittsburgh Steelers +150
Sep 25 11:06 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-105)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -185 · Pittsburgh Steelers +150
Sep 26 10:43 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-108)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -200 · Pittsburgh Steelers +165
Sep 27 8:30 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-105)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -200 · Pittsburgh Steelers +165
Sep 27 9:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-102)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -200 · Pittsburgh Steelers +160
Sep 27 9:17 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-102)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +160
Sep 27 9:31 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-102)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -200 · Pittsburgh Steelers +160
Sep 27 10:21 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-102)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +160
Sep 27 10:31 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-102)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +160
Sep 27 10:41 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-102)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +160
Sep 27 11:01 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-102)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +160
Sep 27 11:33 AMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-112)42.5 (-112)Cincinnati Bengals -185 · Pittsburgh Steelers +150
Sep 27 11:43 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-102)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 27 11:53 AMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-118)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 27 12:00 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (+100)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 27 12:04 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-118)42.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 27 12:14 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-108)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -175 · Pittsburgh Steelers +145
Sep 27 12:30 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-110)42 (-118)Cincinnati Bengals -175 · Pittsburgh Steelers +145
Sep 27 12:34 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-120)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -190 · Pittsburgh Steelers +155
Sep 27 12:44 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-115)42 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -160 · Pittsburgh Steelers +135
CLOSESep 27 12:54 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-118)42.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -165 · Pittsburgh Steelers +135

The read

This is a spot play on a home divisional dog, and the number gives me the hook. The total is 42.5 — an unusually low number that tells me the market itself projects a tight, low-scoring AFC North game. In a game expected to land near 23-20, laying -3.5 on the road is a bad position: the favorite has to win by a full four to hurt me, and a field-goal margin (or any Pittsburgh outright win) cashes. Getting +3.5 rather than +3 matters precisely because so many of these games land on 3.

The matchup supports the close projection. Pittsburgh's defense is legitimately good — 16.5 ppg allowed, 7 sacks, 4 takeaways, and an opponent passer rating of 63.7 with a 59.1% completion rate allowed through two games. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith (3 sacks each) can get after Burrow behind a Cincinnati line that has already surrendered 6 sacks. At home, that defense can hold Cincinnati to the 17-20 range, which is exactly the window where Pittsburgh covers.

The offense should also look better than the 3-point New England debacle suggests. That game came against the #1 scoring defense in the league (8.0 ppg allowed); this week Pittsburgh faces a Cincinnati defense allowing 359 yards and 284.5 pass yards per game. Against a far weaker Atlanta defense in Week 1, Pittsburgh put up 20. The market agrees this isn't a blowout spot: the line opened at Bengals -3.5 and held there all week with only price drift, despite Cincinnati sitting 2-0 and the public piling onto the road favorite after Pittsburgh's embarrassing loss. If the market truly believed the Bengals were a touchdown better, it would have moved to -4 or -4.5. It didn't.

Hold the bear case honestly: Pittsburgh's offense has been genuinely broken — Rodgers at 59.5%, 5.17 YPA, 1 TD/1 INT, QBR 33.2, a 20% third-down conversion rate, lost Dowdle (OUT), and a banged-up Warren. Cincinnati's defense is better than its yardage suggests (red-zone success allowed 21.1%), and if Burrow gets the Bengals up early, Pittsburgh's 3.5 ppg second-half scoring and 0% comeback rate make a rally unlikely. That's the risk. But it's a fresh divisional game, not a fourth-quarter deficit yet, and at home with a good defense and a field-goal cushion against a 42.5 total, the value sits on the dog.

Injuries noted

Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Parker II (IR-R) — ir; Ja'Sir Taylor (IR-R) — The Bengals placed Taylor (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Geoff Hobson of the team's official site reports.; B.J. Hill (Doubtful) — doubtful; Andrei Iosivas (IR) — The Bengals placed Iosivas (thumb) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jonathan Allen (Questionable) — Allen (knee) did not participate at practice Wednesday.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Daequan Hardy (IR) — Undisclosed; Cole Burgess (IR) — Undisclosed; Donte Kent (PUP-R) — The Steelers placed Kent (undisclosed) on the reserve/PUP list Monday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.; Logan Lee (IR) — ir; Jack Driscoll (IR-R) — The Steelers placed Driscoll (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.; DeShon Elliott (IR-R) — ir; Joey Porter Jr. (Questionable) — Porter (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bengals, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.; Gennings Dunker (IR) — The Steelers placed Dunker (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Michael Pittman Jr. (Questionable) — Pittman (foot) is expected to play in Sunday's contest against the Bengals, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Rico Dowdle (Out) — Dowdle (toe) was not spotted during the open viewing window of Friday's practice, Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.; Jaylen Warren (Questionable) — Warren (shoulder), who is listed as questionable for Week 3, is expected to play Sunday versus the Bengals, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Jamel Dean (Questionable) — Dean (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bengals, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Aaron Rodgers is the projected starting quarterback for PIT

    5.17 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Aaron Rodgers threw for 408 passing yards, completed 59.5% of his passes and averaged 5.17 yards per attempt. Last season over 16 games he threw for 3322 yards, completed 65.7% and averaged 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 1-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

  • Joe Burrow is the projected starting quarterback for CIN

    6.99 Y/A

    Through 2 games in 2026, Joe Burrow threw for 461 passing yards, completed 68.2% of his passes and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt. Last season over 8 games he threw for 1809 yards, completed 66.8% and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt, 17-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.

TRENCHES

  • CIN: 74.5 rushing yards allowed per game to PIT's 128

    53.5 YPG

    Cincinnati has allowed 74.5 rushing yards per game, while Pittsburgh has allowed 128. Both figures come from 2 games, and the sheet gives no run-volume or game-script context. Cincinnati has the better early run-defense number, while rushing-yards angles should allow for a quick change as opponents' play calling shifts.

PASS RUSH

  • CIN: 4 sacks recorded per game to PIT's 3.5

    0.5 SACKS

    CIN is at 4 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; PIT is at 3.5 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • CIN: 26.5 points per game to PIT's 11.5

    15 PPG

    Cincinnati has opened with a much stronger scoring pace, while Pittsburgh is well below its 23.4 points per game last season. Cincinnati's 26.5 is also above its 24.4 last-season number, but this is a 2-game sample. The useful matchup lens is whether Pittsburgh can slow the game enough to keep Cincinnati from turning its early scoring edge into a volume edge.

TURNOVERS

  • CIN: 0 fumbles lost per game to PIT's 1

    1 FUM

    CIN is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season CIN was at 0.41 over 17 games and PIT at 0.35 over 17 games.

  • CIN: 0.5 turnovers committed per game to PIT's 1.5

    1 TO

    CIN is at 0.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season CIN was at 1.41 over 17 games and PIT at 0.88 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • CIN: 5.05 yards per play to PIT's 3.8

    1.25 Y/P

    Cincinnati is moving the ball efficiently while Pittsburgh has had a hard time creating the same consistent offense through two games. The Bengals are close to last season's level, while Pittsburgh sits well below its 17-game mark, and Burrow found Chase and Higgins on multiple explosive throws last game. Pittsburgh's two-game output can move quickly, but Cincinnati has the cleaner early offensive profile.

RED ZONE

  • PIT: 0% red-zone scoring allowed to CIN's 25%

    25 PP

    Pittsburgh has not allowed a red-zone score through 2 games, while Cincinnati has allowed scores on 25% of trips. The Steelers own the stronger early result, though two games are too few to expect the zero to last.

  • CIN: 3 red-zone trips per game to PIT's 1.5

    1.5 TRIPS

    CIN is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 2 games; PIT is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season CIN was at 3.18 over 17 games and PIT at 3 over 17 games.

  • CIN: 50% red-zone scoring rate to PIT's 33.3%

    16.7 PP

    CIN is at 50% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; PIT is at 33.3% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season CIN was at 66.7% over 17 games and PIT at 58.8% over 17 games.

MISMATCH

  • CIN: 44.8% on third down to PIT's 20%

    44.8 VS 20

    Cincinnati has converted 44.8% of its third downs through 2 games, while Pittsburgh is at 20%. Cincinnati is close to its 43.4% rate last season, but Pittsburgh has fallen from 40%, which makes its early number the less stable one. Cincinnati can extend drives and limit Pittsburgh's chances; Pittsburgh needs to get back on schedule on third down to keep the possession gap from growing.

COVERAGE

  • PIT: 154.5 passing yards allowed per game to CIN's 253.5

    99 YPG

    Pittsburgh has allowed less passing production than Cincinnati through 2 games, while Cincinnati has given up more through the air. That is a two-game sample without opponent or game-script context, so the gap can move quickly. In this matchup, use it to frame passing-volume expectations rather than label either secondary.

  • PIT: 25% third downs allowed to CIN's 37%

    12 PP

    CIN is at 37% third downs allowed over 2 games; PIT is at 25% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 26.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • CIN and PIT are even since 2025

    1-1 SERIES

    Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have split the last two meetings, so there is no series edge to chase. Cincinnati won 33-31 at home, then Pittsburgh answered with a 34-12 home win. The current game returns to Pittsburgh, matching the site of the more lopsided result, though the sample is only two games. Home-field context matters more here than an even series record.

REPLACEMENT

  • Andrei Iosivas (WR) is on injured reserve for CIN

    IR

    Iosivas is on injured reserve with a thumb injury after Cincinnati placed him there Saturday. He is unavailable for the Bengals' game at Pittsburgh. No replacement or workload split is supplied, leaving the effect on Cincinnati's receiver usage unresolved.

  • Gennings Dunker (G) is on injured reserve for PIT

    IR

    Dunker is on injured reserve with a knee injury after Pittsburgh placed him there Saturday. He is unavailable against Cincinnati, and no replacement guard is listed on the fact sheet.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Rico Dowdle

    Out

    Toe · Did not practice · Out

  • B.J. Hill

    Doubtful

    Achilles · Did not practice · Doubtful

  • Jaylen Warren

    Questionable

    Shoulder · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Joey Porter Jr.

    Questionable

    Not injury related - other · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Jamel Dean

    Questionable

    Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Michael Pittman Jr.

    Questionable

    Foot · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Dexter Lawrence II

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Samaje Perine

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Joe Burrow

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cameron Heyward

    FP

    Full practice

  • Troy Fautanu

    FP

    Full practice

  • Dax Hill

    FP

    Full practice

  • Shemar Stewart

    FP

    Full practice

  • Darnell Washington

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jonathan Allen

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jalen Ramsey

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cole Holcomb

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • CIN: 44.8% third-down conversion rate to PIT's 20%

    24.8 PP

    Cincinnati has kept drives alive at about last season's level, while Pittsburgh's 20% rate is far below its 40% mark last season. Both samples cover 2 games, so the Steelers' number can move quickly. This matchup pits a steady chain-moving offense against a defense that benefits if it can force early stops.

  • CIN (2-0) at PIT (1-1), a division game

    -30 PT GAP

    Cincinnati has the cleaner start, with a 2-0 record and a +20 point margin, while Pittsburgh is 1-1 and -10. The Bengals also won their only road game, and the Steelers won their only home game, so each side has one result that fits this setting. In an AFC North game, the early margins favor Cincinnati, while the home sample gives Pittsburgh a reason to stay competitive.

  • CIN: 5.95 yards per pass attempt to PIT's 4.05

    1.9 Y/A

    CIN is at 5.95 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; PIT is at 4.05 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season CIN was at 5.81 over 17 games and PIT at 5.99 over 17 games.

  • CIN: 213.5 team passing yards per game to PIT's 175

    38.5 YPG

    CIN is at 213.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; PIT is at 175 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season CIN was at 235.6 over 17 games and PIT at 202.4 over 17 games.

  • CIN: 19 first downs per game to PIT's 15.5

    3.5 FD

    CIN is at 19 first downs per game over 2 games; PIT is at 15.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 26. Last season CIN was at 20.7 over 17 games and PIT at 17.7 over 17 games.

AFTER GARY

  • PIT +3.5 → +3

    GARY +0.5

    Gary's number was 3.5; the market closed at 3.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 4:27 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    JA'MARR CHASERECEPTIONS UNDER 6.5
    NFLCincinnati Bengals· +108

    Ja'Marr Chase
    Receptions under 6.5

    +108 · LOST · ACTUAL 9

    Cincinnati Bengals

    I’m taking under 6.5 receptions at +108. Chase has seven catches across Cincinnati’s two games, with four and nine targets. Pittsburgh has allowed wide receivers 12 catches across its two games, giving me a matchup reason to take the plus price on six or fewer. The strongest case against me is Chase’s established role: he averaged more than eight catches across the ten listed games from last season, and Iosivas going on injured reserve could send more work his way.

  • GARY'S PICK
    ERICK ALL JR.RECEIVING YARDS OVER 6.5
    NFLCincinnati Bengals· -109

    Erick All Jr.
    Receiving Yards over 6.5

    -109 · 1:00 PM ET

    Cincinnati Bengals

    I’m taking over 6.5 receiving yards at -109. Pittsburgh has given up 70 yards to tight ends on four catches through two games, so one useful gain can clear this line. All drew three targets in his one recorded game, enough involvement for me to take the small number. The strongest case against me is his uncertain role: those two catches gained only five yards, and Gesicki drew seven targets in his recorded game.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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