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NFL · Sun, Oct 25 · 1:00 PM

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

O/U 46.5 · SPREAD Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 · M&T Bank Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Bengals -2.5
NFL@ Ravens· -120

Bengals
-2.5

-120 · CASHED · CIN 35 · BAL 13

Ravens

The pick & result

Published pick
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 -120
Published odds
-120
Result
Won
Final score
35-13

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 62 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 19 6:00 AM
Close
Sun 12:41 PM
Move
SPREADCincinnati Bengals +3 (-118)Cincinnati Bengals -3 (-108)Price
TOTAL51 (-108)46.5 (-110)−4½
MONEYLINECincinnati Bengals +130Cincinnati Bengals -165−295
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 19 6:00 AMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-118)51 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals +130 · Baltimore Ravens -160
Oct 19 6:30 AMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-118)51 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 19 9:31 AMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-118)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +130 · Baltimore Ravens -160
Oct 19 3:31 PMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-118)51 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 19 4:01 PMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-118)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 19 5:35 PMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-125)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 19 10:24 PMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-118)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +130 · Baltimore Ravens -155
Oct 20 12:25 AMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-125)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 20 6:00 AMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-118)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 20 6:31 AMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-125)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 20 7:32 AMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-125)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 20 8:38 AMCincinnati Bengals +2.5 (-102)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 20 10:44 AMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-125)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 20 11:44 AMCincinnati Bengals +2.5 (-102)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 20 12:45 PMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-125)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 20 2:46 PMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-118)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 20 4:47 PMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-118)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 20 7:47 PMCincinnati Bengals +2.5 (-105)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 21 12:32 PMCincinnati Bengals +3 (-115)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +125 · Baltimore Ravens -150
Oct 21 1:32 PMCincinnati Bengals +2.5 (-110)50.5 (-112)Cincinnati Bengals +110 · Baltimore Ravens -135
Oct 21 2:32 PMCincinnati Bengals +1 (-112)49 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -105 · Baltimore Ravens -112
Oct 21 3:32 PMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-110)48.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -118 · Baltimore Ravens -102
Oct 21 5:32 PMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-108)48.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -118 · Baltimore Ravens -102
Oct 21 9:21 PMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-108)48.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -118 · Baltimore Ravens -102
Oct 21 9:51 PMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-108)48.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -118 · Baltimore Ravens -102
Thu 9:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-108)48.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -118 · Baltimore Ravens -102
Thu 12:28 PMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-108)48.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -115 · Baltimore Ravens -105
Thu 12:58 PMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-110)48 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -120 · Baltimore Ravens +100
Thu 1:29 PMCincinnati Bengals +1.5 (-110)49 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals +100 · Baltimore Ravens -120
Thu 1:59 PMCincinnati Bengals +1.5 (-110)49 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +105 · Baltimore Ravens -120
Thu 2:59 PMCincinnati Bengals +1.5 (-108)49 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals +100 · Baltimore Ravens -120
Thu 3:59 PMCincinnati Bengals +1.5 (-108)49 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +105 · Baltimore Ravens -125
Thu 5:23 PMCincinnati Bengals +1.5 (-108)49 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals +100 · Baltimore Ravens -120
Thu 6:03 PMCincinnati Bengals +1.5 (-108)49 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +100 · Baltimore Ravens -120
Fri 6:00 AMCincinnati Bengals +1.5 (-110)49 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +100 · Baltimore Ravens -120
Fri 9:00 AMCincinnati Bengals +1.5 (-110)48.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals +100 · Baltimore Ravens -120
Fri 1:32 PMCincinnati Bengals +1.5 (-108)49 (-112)Cincinnati Bengals +100 · Baltimore Ravens -120
Fri 2:02 PMCincinnati Bengals +1 (-115)48.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -108 · Baltimore Ravens -110
Fri 4:59 PMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-102)48.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -110 · Baltimore Ravens -108
Fri 5:59 PMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-105)48.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -112 · Baltimore Ravens -108
Fri 7:00 PMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-108)48 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -118 · Baltimore Ravens -102
Sat 9:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-110)48 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -120 · Baltimore Ravens +100
Sat 10:32 AMCincinnati Bengals -1 (-110)48 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -120 · Baltimore Ravens +100
Sat 4:02 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)47.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Baltimore Ravens +125
Sat 4:32 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-112)47 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Baltimore Ravens +120
Sat 5:03 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-112)47 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -150 · Baltimore Ravens +125
Sat 5:33 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-115)47 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -145 · Baltimore Ravens +125
Sat 7:03 PMCincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-125)46.5 (-108)Cincinnati Bengals -155 · Baltimore Ravens +130
Sat 7:33 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-102)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -160 · Baltimore Ravens +135
Sat 9:04 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-102)46.5 (-112)Cincinnati Bengals -160 · Baltimore Ravens +130
Sat 9:34 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-102)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -175 · Baltimore Ravens +140
Sat 10:04 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-102)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -165 · Baltimore Ravens +140
Sat 11:04 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-105)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -165 · Baltimore Ravens +140
Sun 4:45 AMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-108)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -175 · Baltimore Ravens +140
Sun 7:21 AMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-108)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -160 · Baltimore Ravens +135
Sun 7:41 AMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-108)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -160 · Baltimore Ravens +130
Sun 8:12 AMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-108)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -160 · Baltimore Ravens +135
Sun 11:30 AMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-102)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -160 · Baltimore Ravens +130
Sun 11:41 AMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-108)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -160 · Baltimore Ravens +135
Sun 12:00 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-108)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -160 · Baltimore Ravens +130
Sun 12:21 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-108)46.5 (-112)Cincinnati Bengals -160 · Baltimore Ravens +130
Sun 12:30 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-108)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -160 · Baltimore Ravens +130
CLOSESun 12:41 PMCincinnati Bengals -3 (-108)46.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -165 · Baltimore Ravens +138

The read

A clear, calm October afternoon in Baltimore, and the Ravens hand the ball to Tyler Huntley for a third straight start while Joe Burrow arrives off a bye with no Bengals player carrying a game status. Cincinnati laying 2.5 on the road tells you the market has already priced Lamar Jackson's absence. The question is whether there's still a gap left to bet. I think there is.

Start with Baltimore under Huntley. They were 23-23 in regulation at Atlanta, then lost 10-13 at Cleveland, scoring all 10 points in the first quarter and punting seven times. Huntley has 429 yards on 72 throws, about six a throw, and took seven sacks in those two starts. That offense lives on Derrick Henry, and when the run stalls, it stalls. Burrow is throwing for over seven a pass with 11 touchdowns, and Higgins and Chase are both off the report.

The Ravens' injuries land in the wrong places. Safety Jaylinn Hawkins, an 87% snap player last week, is out. Cornerback T.J. Tampa is doubtful, and edge Tavius Robinson is done for the year. Up front, Cam Jurgens makes a Ravens debut at center on a line already missing Ethan Pocic and Jovaughn Gwyn to IR. Across from them is a Bengals front with 17 sacks in five games.

The Ravens are live. Cincinnati has gained 1,714 yards and allowed 1,721, and its point differential leans on turnovers. The run defense gave up 217 yards to Miami. If Baltimore wins, it looks like Henry, long drives and Burrow stuck on the sideline. But Henry is averaging about four yards a carry this year, so that path isn't reliable.

Tune out the Hendrickson revenge story, the 4-2 record (three of those wins came with Jackson), and the weather.

At -120 there's real juice, so this is a measured play, not a hammer. Better quarterback, healthier roster, extra rest. Bengals -2.5.

Injuries noted

Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Parker II (IR-R) — ir; Ja'Sir Taylor (IR-R) — The Bengals placed Taylor (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Geoff Hobson of the team's official site reports.; Andrei Iosivas (IR) — The Bengals placed Iosivas (thumb) on injured reserve Saturday.; Jalen Davis (IR) — The Bengals placed Davis (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday.; Swayze Bozeman (IR) — The Bengals placed Bozeman on injured reserve Monday due to a fractured forearm, Ben Baby of ESPN.com reports.; Tanner Hudson (IR) — Hudson (pectoral) was placed on injured reserve by the Bengals on Monday.

Baltimore Ravens: Jahquez Robinson (IR); Skylar Thompson (IR) — ir; Bilhal Kone (IR-R) — ir; Danny Pinter (IR) — Pinter (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Wednesday, Clifton Brown of the team's official website reports.; Adam Randall (IR-R) — Randall (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Sunday with a designation to return, Ryan Mink of the team's official website reports.; T.J. Tampa (Doubtful) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Doubtful (Knee); practice: Limited. The Ravens designated Tampa (toe/ankle) to return from injured reserve Wednesday.; Jovaughn Gwyn (IR) — The Ravens moved Gwyn (ankle) to injured reserve Saturday.; Ethan Pocic (IR) — Baltimore placed Pocic (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Lamar Jackson (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Ankle); practice: Limited. Jackson (ankle) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Bengals.; Durham Smythe (IR) — The Ravens placed Smythe (Achilles) on their injured reserve list Wednesday, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports.; Broderick Washington Jr. (Questionable) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Questionable (Ankle); practice: Limited. Washington (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bengals.; Jaylinn Hawkins (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Knee); practice: DNP. Hawkins (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bengals, Cordell Woodland of 105.7 The Fan Baltimore reports.; Tavius Robinson (Out) — Official injury report, Wk 7: Out (Pectoral); practice: DNP. The Ravens placed Robinson (pectoral) on injured reserve Saturday.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Joe Burrow is the projected starting quarterback for CIN

    7.2 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Joe Burrow threw for 1361 passing yards, completed 71.4% of his passes and averaged 7.2 yards per attempt. Last season over 8 games he threw for 1809 yards, completed 66.8% and averaged 6.99 yards per attempt, 17-5 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 11-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

  • Tyler Huntley is the projected starting quarterback for BAL

    5.96 Y/A

    Through 3 games in 2026, Tyler Huntley threw for 429 passing yards, completed 70.8% of his passes and averaged 5.96 yards per attempt. Last season over 5 games he threw for 426 yards, completed 77.6% and averaged 6.36 yards per attempt, 2-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 3-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 3 games in.

TRENCHES

  • BAL: 100.5 rushing yards allowed per game to CIN's 123

    22.5 YPG

    CIN is at 123 rushing yards allowed per game over 5 games; BAL is at 100.5 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

PASS RUSH

  • CIN: 3.4 sacks recorded per game to BAL's 2.5

    0.9 SACKS

    Cincinnati gets 3.4 sacks a game over 5 games, and Baltimore gets 2.5 over 6. Sack totals are streaky and five games is a small sample, so the Bengals number could cool. For now both fronts get home, with Cincinnati the more aggressive. In this game, expect pressure on both quarterbacks, which leans toward sacks props and drives stalling on obvious passing downs.

TURNOVERS

  • CIN: 1.6 takeaways per game to BAL's 1

    0.6 TO

    Cincinnati forces 1.6 turnovers a game over five games, and Baltimore forces 1 over six. Takeaways swing a lot from week to week, so a gap this size over five or six games can close fast. The sheet doesn't show who threw those picks or lost those fumbles, so this tells you less about the matchup than the yardage numbers do. Count it as a small lean toward Cincinnati winning the turnover battle, nothing you'd build a game around.

  • BAL: 0.67 turnovers committed per game to CIN's 1.2

    0.53 TO

    CIN is at 1.2 turnovers committed per game over 5 games; BAL is at 0.67 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season CIN was at 1.41 over 17 games and BAL at 1.35 over 17 games.

  • BAL: 0.17 interceptions thrown per game to CIN's 0.6

    0.43 INT

    CIN is at 0.6 interceptions thrown per game over 5 games; BAL is at 0.17 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season CIN was at 1 over 17 games and BAL at 0.65 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • BAL: 5.98 yards per play to CIN's 5.5

    0.48 Y/P

    Baltimore gains about half a yard more per snap than Cincinnati, and that gap looks a lot like last season, when the Ravens sat at 5.92 and the Bengals at 5.23. The Bengals have climbed to 5.5 over 5 games, and their last game ran through one shot play, a 45-yard Burrow touchdown to Ja'Marr Chase. Baltimore's 5.98 over 6 games is close to its full-season level, so it should hold up. At home, the Ravens have the steadier offense, while Cincinnati leans on Chase hitting chunk plays.

RED ZONE

  • BAL: 71.4% red-zone scoring rate to CIN's 52.9%

    18.5 PP

    CIN is at 52.9% red-zone scoring rate over 5 games; BAL is at 71.4% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season CIN was at 66.7% over 17 games and BAL at 47.5% over 17 games.

  • CIN: 41.2% red-zone scoring allowed to BAL's 57.9%

    16.7 PP

    CIN is at 41.2% red-zone scoring allowed over 5 games; BAL is at 57.9% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

MISMATCH

  • BAL: 151.5 rush yards a game to CIN's 82.8

    151.5 VS 82.8

    Baltimore runs for 151.5 yards a game over six games, right in line with 156.6 last season, while Cincinnati manages 82.8, below its 93.6. The Ravens' ground game is who they are, and it lets them control the clock and keep the Bengals' offense on the sideline. Since both numbers track last season, this gap looks real. A Baltimore team leaning on the run tends to shorten the game and limit Cincinnati's chances to catch up.

COVERAGE

  • BAL: 5 yards per play allowed to CIN's 5.68

    0.68 Y/P

    Baltimore gives up 5 yards every time an offense snaps it, and Cincinnati allows 5.68, so the Ravens are the tighter defense through six games while the Bengals have five. The sheet doesn't say who either team faced, so part of this gap could be schedule. Six games is a real sample for yards per play, which tends to hold steadier than points. For this game, it points to Baltimore's offense finding more room than Cincinnati's does.

  • BAL: 39.5% third downs allowed to CIN's 46%

    6.5 PP

    CIN is at 46% third downs allowed over 5 games; BAL is at 39.5% over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 24.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • CIN and BAL are even since 2025

    1-1 SERIES

    The 1-1 split hides two lopsided games. Cincinnati won 32-14 in Baltimore on Nov 27, then Baltimore shut them out 24-0 in Cincinnati on Dec 14. Each team won on the road by a wide score, so home field did little in this pairing. Two games that swung that hard tell you the series is volatile, which argues for caution on any big spread in this Baltimore home game.

REPLACEMENT

  • T.J. Tampa (CB) is ir-r for BAL

    IR-R

    Baltimore opened the return window for cornerback T.J. Tampa on Wednesday, Oct 22, bringing him back from injured reserve after a toe and ankle injury. Being designated to return means he can practice again; it does not mean he plays Sunday against Cincinnati. Check whether the Ravens activate him to the roster before counting him in this game.

  • Tanner Hudson (TE) is on injured reserve for CIN

    IR

    Hudson went on injured reserve Monday with a pectoral injury, so he misses at least the next several games, including this one at Baltimore. The Bengals other tight ends pick up his snaps. His absence mostly affects depth at the position, with no usage numbers here to suggest a big target hole.

  • Tavius Robinson (LB) is on injured reserve for BAL

    IR

    The Ravens put Robinson on injured reserve Saturday with a pectoral injury, so he is out for Sunday against Cincinnati and at least several weeks beyond. The sheet does not say who takes his linebacker snaps, so look for the depth chart to settle that.

  • Swayze Bozeman (LB) is on injured reserve for CIN

    IR

    The Bengals placed Bozeman on injured reserve Monday with a fractured forearm, reported Oct 12. He will not play at Baltimore, and a fracture suggests a longer absence. The sheet does not name his role, so his loss is more depth than headline for this game.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Lamar Jackson

    Out

    Ankle · Limited practice · Out

  • Jaylinn Hawkins

    Out

    Knee · Did not practice · Out

  • Broderick Washington Jr.

    Questionable

    Ankle · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Jonathan Allen

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Calais Campbell

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Dexter Lawrence II

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • B.J. Hill

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Ronnie Stanley

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Trey Hendrickson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Matt Hibner

    FP

    Full practice

  • John Simpson

    FP

    Full practice

  • Rashod Bateman

    FP

    Full practice

  • Olaivavega Ioane

    FP

    Full practice

  • Kyle Dugger

    FP

    Full practice

  • Cam Jurgens

    FP

    Full practice

  • Mark Andrews

    FP

    Full practice

  • Andrew Vorhees

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • CIN has 7 more days of rest

    14d vs 7d

    Cincinnati had the bye and gets 14 days before this trip, while Baltimore is on a normal 7. The Bengals get extra time to scheme for a division rival they already know well. Baltimore is at home and on regular rest, so this is a mild prep edge and the Ravens are not working at a disadvantage.

  • CIN: 50% third-down conversion rate to BAL's 38.2%

    11.8 PP

    Cincinnati is moving the chains on half its third downs, and Baltimore is closer to four in ten. Cincinnati sat at 43.4% last season over 17 games, so 50% over 5 games is a jump that probably cools some. Baltimore's 38.2% is a dip from 40.9% last season. If Cincinnati keeps drives alive in Baltimore, it controls the clock and the play count, so think about how this game's pace changes if that edge holds.

  • CIN: 75% fourth-down conversion rate to BAL's 40%

    35 PP

    CIN is at 75% fourth-down conversion rate over 5 games; BAL is at 40% over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season CIN was at 70% over 17 games and BAL at 60% over 17 games.

  • CIN: 260 team passing yards per game to BAL's 216.2

    43.8 YPG

    CIN is at 260 team passing yards per game over 5 games; BAL is at 216.2 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 24. Last season CIN was at 235.6 over 17 games and BAL at 175.6 over 17 games.

  • CIN (3-2) at BAL (4-2), a division game

    +5 PT GAP

    These teams are close on paper: Cincinnati is 3-2 at +19, Baltimore is 4-2 at +24. Baltimore lost its last game and is 1-1 at home, while the Bengals are 2-1 on the road. Neither record looks inflated, since both have positive margins to back them. With split home and road results and similar point totals, this division game shapes up as close as the records suggest.

TEAM RECORD

  • AFC NORTH game: CIN 0-1, BAL 0-1 in the division

    DIVISION

    These two share the AFC NORTH. CIN is 0-1 against it, BAL is 0-1. Current-2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

AFTER GARY

  • CIN -2.5 → -3

    GARY +0.5

    Gary's number was -2.5; the same book now shows -3.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 22, 2026 at 4:21 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: caesars, draftkings, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    TEE HIGGINSRECEIVING YARDS OVER 62.5
    NFLCincinnati Bengals· -115

    Tee Higgins
    Receiving Yards over 62.5

    -115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 148

    Cincinnati Bengals

    Tee Higgins over 62.5 receiving yards at -115.

    The book has Higgins 18 yards below Ja'Marr Chase, and this season says the order should run the other way. Higgins has more targets than Chase, 43 to 38, and has gone for 90 or more three times: 95 at Houston, 90 at Pittsburgh and 157 against Jacksonville. Even on the road he's averaging 69 a game. Burrow comes in off a bye with his full receiver room healthy, and the Bengals have no one on the injury report who matters to the passing game.

    Baltimore's secondary is where this game gets attacked. Wide receivers have caught 80 balls for 1,054 yards against the Ravens in six games, about 176 a week to the position. Now safety Jaylinn Hawkins is out after playing 87% of the snaps last week, and cornerback T.J. Tampa is doubtful coming off injured reserve. Thinner coverage behind a pass rush that just lost Tavius Robinson means more clean throws, and Higgins is the receiver Burrow has been feeding when the ball comes out on time. Chase draws the attention, and Higgins gets the matchups that are left.

    What beats it is the Miami script. In that game Cincinnati ran it 31 times, Burrow threw only 32 passes, and Higgins saw four targets for 22 yards. If the Bengals jump ahead and Huntley can't answer, Cincinnati could lean on Chase Brown and Samaje Perine and let the clock run. A big day from Chase that eats the volume would do it too. I'll take the number with the better receiver this year against a short-handed back end.

  • GARY'S PICK
    TYLER HUNTLEYPASSING YARDS UNDER 197.5
    NFLBaltimore Ravens· -112

    Tyler Huntley
    Passing Yards under 197.5

    -112 · LOST · ACTUAL 298

    Baltimore Ravens

    Tyler Huntley under 197.5 passing yards at -112.

    Huntley has two full starts. At Atlanta he threw for 201 yards, and it took 32 attempts and an overtime period to get there. At Cleveland he threw for 165 on 31 attempts, and Baltimore didn't score after the first quarter. He's completing his throws, but they're short ones, about six yards a pass this season. The Ravens' passing game runs through Zay Flowers underneath and Mark Andrews, who has 181 yards on 33 targets all year. Nobody in this offense is stretching the field off Huntley's arm.

    The protection makes it harder. Huntley was sacked seven times in those two starts, and the interior line is down Ethan Pocic and Jovaughn Gwyn. Cincinnati brings a front with 17 sacks in five games. At home with a backup quarterback, Baltimore's plan is Derrick Henry, and that keeps the dropbacks down. It takes a Huntley game with more throws and more yards per throw than either of his starts to get over this line.

    What beats it is volume. Cincinnati's pass defense has given up real yardage to starting quarterbacks, and if the Bengals get two scores up early, Huntley could throw 40 times, and even six a throw gets home from there. One busted coverage to Flowers in the open field changes the math as well. I'm betting on the version of this offense we've watched for two weeks: short completions, sacks, and Henry carries.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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