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NFL · Sun, Sep 13 · 1:00 PM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

O/U 62.5 · SPREAD Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 · Paycor Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Buccaneers +3.5
NFL@ Bengals· -104
LOST · TB 27 · CIN 33

Buccaneers
+3.5

-104 · LOST · TB 27 · CIN 33

Bengals

The pick & result

Published pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 -104
Published odds
-104
Result
Lost
Final score
27-33

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

FANATICS · 23 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 9 10:49 AM		Close
Sep 13 12:37 PM		Move
SPREADCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)Price
TOTAL50.5 (-105)50 (-110)−½
MONEYLINECincinnati Bengals -205Cincinnati Bengals -200+5
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 9 10:49 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-105)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 9 2:14 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 9 2:44 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-105)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 9 5:20 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 9 7:47 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-105)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 9 8:58 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 9 10:59 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-105)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 10 6:30 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 10 9:00 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-105)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 10 6:06 PMCincinnati Bengals -4 (-110)50.5 (-105)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 10 7:07 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-105)Cincinnati Bengals -200 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +165
Sep 10 8:08 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -200 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +165
Sep 10 8:18 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 11 12:02 PMCincinnati Bengals -4 (-110)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 11 2:02 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 12 5:01 AMCincinnati Bengals -4 (-110)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 12 7:30 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 12 8:30 AMCincinnati Bengals -4 (-110)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 12 11:34 AMCincinnati Bengals -4 (-110)51 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 13 10:14 AMCincinnati Bengals -4 (-110)50.5 (-105)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 13 10:36 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -205 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +170
Sep 13 11:26 AMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50.5 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -200 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +165
Sep 13 12:27 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-115)50 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -200 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +165
CLOSESep 13 12:37 PMCincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110)50 (-110)Cincinnati Bengals -200 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers +165

The read

Sunday afternoon at Paycor Stadium opens a new season for two teams that missed the playoffs. Both spent the offseason rebuilding their defenses; now those changes get their first regular-season test.

Tampa Bay’s returning offensive line is the foundation of my bet. Last season, the Buccaneers allowed an 8.7% quarterback-hit rate compared with Cincinnati’s 14.5%. That does not settle this year’s protection matchup, but the continuity gives me a concrete reason to trust Tampa Bay’s offense to function on the road. Baker Mayfield has Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr. and Cade Otton, plus receiving options in Bucky Irving and Kenny Gainwell. My read is that those options can keep Tampa Bay answering across four quarters.

There is evidence of scoring upside, too. Tampa Bay generated explosive plays on 9.7% of its offensive snaps last season, while Cincinnati allowed them on 11.8%. Cincinnati’s defensive additions could change that considerably. The Buccaneers’ case rests on their returning protection and available playmakers giving them ways to sustain possessions and create chunk gains even against an improved front.

Cincinnati’s strongest counterargument is finishing drives. Its offense converted 66.7% of red-zone possessions into touchdowns last season, while Tampa Bay allowed 69.8%. With Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins available, that is a credible path to separation: Cincinnati finishes possessions in the end zone while Tampa Bay settles for kicks. The Buccaneers’ own 54.0% red-zone touchdown rate makes that the biggest threat to this ticket.

I give Tampa Bay’s ability to keep generating offense enough weight to take the points against that finishing advantage. I expect the Buccaneers to remain involved through sustained possessions and explosive opportunities; I am not counting on favorable fumble recoveries or preseason results. The spread fits that conviction better than the moneyline. Tampa Bay can make this competitive throughout without needing to establish control of the game.

Injuries noted

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalen McMillan (Doubtful) — McMillan (knee) is doubtful for Sunday's game at Cincinnati, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.; Josh Hayes (IR-R) — ir; Mohamed Kamara (IR) — Kamara (knee) reverted to the Buccaneers' injured reserve list Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Deshawn McKnight (IR) — The Buccaneers placed McKnight (hamstring) on injured reserve Tuesday, Scott Smith of the team's official site reports.; Sean Tucker (Doubtful) — Tucker (hamstring) is doubtful for Sunday's game at Cincinnati, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.; Christian Rozeboom (Questionable) — Rozeboom (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bengals.; Justin Skule (Doubtful) — doubtful

Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Parker II (IR-R) — ir; Ja'Sir Taylor (IR-R) — The Bengals placed Taylor (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Geoff Hobson of the team's official site reports.; Shemar Stewart (Doubtful) — Stewart (knee) is officially designated as doubtful for Sunday's game versus the Buccaneers, Charlie Goldsmith of the Dayton Daily News reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Baker Mayfield starts at quarterback for TB

    6.8 Y/A

    Baker Mayfield produced 3,693 passing yards over 17 games while averaging 6.8 yards per attempt, with a 63.2% completion rate and 26-11 TD-INT line. The facts do not show what kind of test CIN presents for that profile.

  • Joe Burrow starts at quarterback for CIN

    6.99 Y/A

    Joe Burrow paired 1,809 passing yards over 8 games with 66.8% completions and 6.99 yards per attempt, while posting a 17-5 TD-INT line. No TB defensive facts are supplied to define tonight’s test.

  • CIN's passing game is +29.7 yards per game (2025 season)

    29.7 YPG

    TB is at 205.9 team passing yards per game over 17 games; CIN is at 235.6 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

TRENCHES

  • TB is +20.9 rush yards per game (2025 season)

    20.9 YPG

    TB is at 114.5 rushing yards per game over 17 games; CIN is at 93.6 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • TB @ CIN carries a 62.5 market total

    62.5

    TB-CIN’s 62.5 total sits 15 points above the 47.5 median across 13 games with posted totals, marking it as a high-scoring environment relative to this slate. That expectation cracks if scoring proves far more muted than the market total implies.

  • TB's defense gives up 4.8 fewer points per game (2025 season)

    4.8 PPG

    TB is at 24.2 points allowed per game over 17 games; CIN is at 28.9 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

TURNOVERS

  • TB commits 0.47 fewer turnovers per game (2025 season)

    0.47 TO

    TB is at 0.94 turnovers committed per game over 17 games; CIN is at 1.41 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

RED ZONE

  • CIN's red-zone scoring rate is 12.7 percentage points higher (2025 season)

    12.7 PP

    TB is at 54% red-zone scoring rate over 17 games; CIN is at 66.7% over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

MISMATCH

  • TB's defense against CIN's — TB allows 24.2 a game, CIN 28.9 (2025 season)

    24.2 VS 28.9

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: pts allowed / g — TB 24.2, CIN 28.9, over 17 and 17 game samples from the 2025 regular season.

REPLACEMENT

  • Jacob Parrish (CB) is questionable for TB

    QUESTIONABLE

    Parrish (back) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Bengals, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.

  • Christian Rozeboom (LB) is questionable for TB

    QUESTIONABLE

    Rozeboom (foot) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Bengals. Reported Sep 11.

  • Jalen McMillan (WR) is inactive for TB

    INACTIVE

    McMillan (knee) is listed as inactive Sunday at Cincinnati, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.

  • Sean Tucker (RB) is inactive for TB

    INACTIVE

    Tucker (hamstring) is inactive for Sunday's game at Cincinnati, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Justin Skule

    Doubtful

    Oblique · Limited practice · Doubtful

  • Shemar Stewart

    Doubtful

    Knee · Did not practice · Doubtful

  • Jalen McMillan

    Doubtful

    Knee · Limited practice · Doubtful

  • Sean Tucker

    Doubtful

    Hamstring · Limited practice · Doubtful

  • Christian Rozeboom

    Questionable

    Foot · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Ja'Marr Chase

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • Dexter Lawrence II

    DNP

    Did not practice

  • DJ Turner II

    LP

    Limited practice

  • B.J. Hill

    FP

    Full practice

  • Tee Higgins

    FP

    Full practice

  • Rueben Bain Jr.

    FP

    Full practice

  • Billy Schrauth

    FP

    Coach's Decision · Full practice

  • Emeka Egbuka

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jonathan Allen

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • CIN's fourth-down conversion rate is 25.2 percentage points higher (2025 season)

    25.2 PP

    TB is at 44.8% fourth-down conversion rate over 17 games; CIN is at 70% over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.

AFTER GARY

  • TB +3.5 → +3.5

    GARY +0.94PP

    FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, caesars, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

4
  • THE LONG SHOT
    JA'MARR CHASEANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
    NFLCincinnati Bengals· -115
    1:00 PM ET

    Ja'Marr Chase
    Anytime TD over 0.5

    -115 · 1:00 PM ET

    Cincinnati Bengals

    Chase remains Cincinnati's most reliable scoring threat, especially with Burrow back and both players fully healthy. Tampa's young outside corners face a difficult assignment, and Chase's combination of red-zone separation and yards after the catch gives him multiple ways to find the end zone.

  • GARY'S PICK
    BAKER MAYFIELDRUSHING YARDS OVER 15.5
    NFLTampa Bay Buccaneers· -113
    ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 30

    Baker Mayfield
    Rushing Yards over 15.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 30

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Cincinnati's new front should create pressure, and Mayfield is at his best when he can turn broken pockets into first downs. He cleared this number in seven of his last eight games, and the matchup sets up for another few timely scrambles.

  • GARY'S PICK
    CHASE BROWNRUSHING RECEIVING YARDS OVER 84.5
    NFLCincinnati Bengals· -115
    LOST · ACTUAL 78

    Chase Brown
    Rushing Receiving Yards over 84.5

    -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 78

    Cincinnati Bengals

    Brown is the engine Cincinnati wants to feature as it builds a more balanced offense around Joe Burrow. He topped this number in nine of his last ten, and his receiving role gives him a second path to the over if Tampa's improved run defense limits the early carries.

  • THE LONG SHOT
    TEE HIGGINSANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
    NFLCincinnati Bengals· +120
    1:00 PM ET

    Tee Higgins
    Anytime TD over 0.5

    +120 · 1:00 PM ET

    Cincinnati Bengals

    Higgins is the matchup problem that can get overlooked when all the attention goes to Chase. His size, body control and red-zone role fit perfectly against Tampa's young corners, and plus-money is enough compensation for backing Cincinnati's second featured receiver to score.

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