Atlanta Falcons picks

Rain and wind roll into Raymond James for a division game between two teams whose records don't tell the whole story. The forecast calls for drizzle turning to rain with gusts to 29 mph. In that weather I want the team that wins in the trenches, and that's Tampa. Start on the ground. Tampa's run defense hasn't allowed more than 106 rushing yards in any game this season. Atlanta's has given up 208, 98 and 123 over its last three, and now it plays without LB Divine Deablo and nickel Billy Bowman Jr. The Bucs just ran for 258 at Carolina and 241 at Dallas. Atlanta leans on Bijan Robinson, who managed 63 yards on 20 carries last week, and Brian Robinson Jr. is out. Atlanta's recent results flatter it. The Falcons were outgained 1,159 to 919 over their last three games. They beat San Francisco while being outgained 400 to 295, thanks to 4 takeaways. They had 5 takeaways in their other six games combined, so don't count on that again. Tampa is better than 2-5. All five losses came by 7 or fewer, and the Bucs are +11 in point differential despite three Jalon Daniels starts. Antoine Winfield Jr. returns after missing three games. Chase McLaughlin is 16-of-16 on field goals, and at -2.5 a field-goal win still cashes. In this wind, that's a real outcome. The risks are real too. Emeka Egbuka is out, Luke Goedeke is questionable at right tackle, and Baker Mayfield threw only 11 passes last week while managing a thumb issue. Michael Penix Jr. has 9 touchdowns against 1 interception, and Atlanta averages 31 points with Penix starting. If the deep ball works through the wind, the Falcons can cover. Atlanta also heads to Madrid next week, which can pull a team's focus. I'll lay the 2.5 at this price. At -3, I'd pass.