Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
O/U 53.5 · SPREAD Baltimore Ravens -6.5 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Atlanta Falcons -3.5 +100
- Published odds
- +100
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 30-23
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 63 moves| Market | Opened Oct 6 12:24 AM | Close Oct 11 8:01 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Atlanta Falcons +3 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | +½ |
| TOTAL | 45 (-110) | 44 (-110) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | Atlanta Falcons +135 | Atlanta Falcons -180 | −315 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENOct 6 12:24 AM | Atlanta Falcons +3 (-110) | 45 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons +135 · Baltimore Ravens -165 |
| Oct 6 12:54 AM | Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons +120 · Baltimore Ravens -145 |
| Oct 6 9:00 AM | Atlanta Falcons +2.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons +115 · Baltimore Ravens -140 |
| Oct 6 9:41 AM | Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (-115) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -140 · Baltimore Ravens +120 |
| Oct 6 10:42 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3 (+100) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -150 · Baltimore Ravens +125 |
| Oct 6 12:43 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3 (-110) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -155 · Baltimore Ravens +130 |
| Oct 6 2:13 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3 (-115) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 6 3:14 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -180 · Baltimore Ravens +150 |
| Oct 6 4:02 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -180 · Baltimore Ravens +150 |
| Oct 6 8:03 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -180 · Baltimore Ravens +150 |
| Oct 6 10:03 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -180 · Baltimore Ravens +150 |
| Oct 7 6:00 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -180 · Baltimore Ravens +150 |
| Oct 7 2:33 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -190 · Baltimore Ravens +155 |
| Oct 7 4:35 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -190 · Baltimore Ravens +155 |
| Oct 7 7:36 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -180 · Baltimore Ravens +150 |
| Oct 7 9:36 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 8 6:00 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -180 · Baltimore Ravens +150 |
| Oct 8 9:00 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 8 12:02 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 8 10:47 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3 (-115) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 9 6:00 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 9 1:01 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -180 · Baltimore Ravens +150 |
| Oct 9 2:01 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 9 4:02 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 9 5:02 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 9 7:02 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 9 10:03 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 9 11:03 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-115) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 10 7:00 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 10 9:00 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-105) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 10 11:01 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 10 1:08 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 10 2:08 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 10 4:08 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 10 6:39 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 10 7:09 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 10 8:09 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 10 10:09 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 10 10:39 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 12:39 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 7:41 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 7:52 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 8:02 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-105) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 8:22 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 8:32 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 8:42 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 10:00 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 10:31 AM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110) | 43.5 (-105) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 10:41 AM | Atlanta Falcons -4 (+100) | 43.5 (-105) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 11:52 AM | Atlanta Falcons -4 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 12:53 PM | Atlanta Falcons -4 (+100) | 43.5 (-105) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 1:34 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+105) | 43.5 (-105) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 1:54 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3 (-120) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 2:25 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 4:06 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 4:57 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 6:11 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 43.5 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 6:31 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -175 · Baltimore Ravens +145 |
| Oct 11 6:41 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -170 · Baltimore Ravens +140 |
| Oct 11 6:51 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -170 · Baltimore Ravens +140 |
| Oct 11 7:11 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -170 · Baltimore Ravens +140 |
| Oct 11 7:21 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-105) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -170 · Baltimore Ravens +140 |
| Oct 11 7:50 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3 (-120) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -170 · Baltimore Ravens +140 |
| CLOSEOct 11 8:01 PM | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (+100) | 44 (-110) | Atlanta Falcons -180 · Baltimore Ravens +150 |
The read
I'm backing Atlanta -3.5. Penix's return has given the Falcons an offense that can hurt defenses through the air and on the ground.
Against New Orleans, they sustained touchdown drives and answered scores, showing more than a reliance on big plays. Robinson and London can test Baltimore's recurring tackling and coverage problems, while Atlanta's stout run defense can make Huntley carry more of the offense on passing downs.
Baltimore has the weapons to keep this close, but I trust Atlanta's balance to produce a win by more than a field goal.
Injuries noted
Baltimore Ravens: Jahquez Robinson (IR); Skylar Thompson (IR) — ir; Bilhal Kone (IR-R) — ir; Danny Pinter (IR) — Pinter (knee) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Wednesday, Clifton Brown of the team's official website reports.; Adam Randall (IR-R) — Randall (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Ravens on Sunday with a designation to return, Ryan Mink of the team's official website reports.; T.J. Tampa (IR) — The Ravens placed Tampa (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Zay Flowers (Questionable) — Flowers (foot) is slated to play in Sunday night's game in Atlanta, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Ja'Kobi Lane (IR) — Ravens coach Jesse Minter said Friday that Lane (wrist) is "doing really well" and "has put himself in a great position to be ready to roll when the time permits."; Trey Hendrickson (Out) — Hendrickson (finger) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Falcons, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.; Jovaughn Gwyn (IR) — The Ravens moved Gwyn (ankle) to injured reserve Saturday.; Ethan Pocic (IR) — Baltimore placed Pocic (knee) on injured reserve Saturday.; Lamar Jackson (Out) — Jackson (ankle), who has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Falcons, has a "real chance" to return to action next week against Cleveland, pending how he responds to rehab, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Marlon Humphrey (Questionable) — Humphrey (calf/hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.; Durham Smythe (IR) — The Ravens placed Smythe (Achilles) on their injured reserve list Wednesday, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports.; Cam Jurgens (Out) — Jurgens (concussion) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Falcons, Adam Caplan of SiriusXM NFL Radio reports.
Atlanta Falcons: Storm Norton (PUP-R) — out; DeAngelo Malone (PUP-R) — The Falcons placed Malone (undisclosed) on the reserve/PUP list Tuesday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; James Pearce Jr. (Reserve-Sus) — reserve-sus; JD Bertrand (IR) — The Falcons placed Bertrand (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Beaux Collins (IR-R) — The Falcons placed Collins (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return during the season, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Trey Sermon (IR) — ir; Cameron Williams (IR) — The Falcons placed Williams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Da'Shawn Hand (IR) — The Falcons placed Hand (quadriceps) on injured reserve Wednesday, William McFadden of the team's official site reports.; A.J. Terrell Jr. (IR) — The Falcons placed Terrell (groin) on injured reserve Tuesday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.; Divine Deablo (Questionable) — Deablo (hamstring) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the Ravens, Will McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports.; Samson Ebukam (Questionable) — questionable; Yasir Abdullah (IR) — The Falcons placed Abdullah (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.; Za'Darius Smith (Out) — Smith (concussion/neck) has been downgraded to out for Sunday's game against the Ravens, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.; Jake Matthews (Questionable) — Matthews (groin) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Ravens.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Tyler Huntley is the projected starting quarterback for BAL
7 Y/AIn his first 2026 game, Tyler Huntley threw for 63 passing yards, completed 88.9% of his passes and averaged 7 yards per attempt. Last season over 5 games he threw for 426 yards, completed 77.6% and averaged 6.36 yards per attempt, 2-0 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 0-0 touchdown-to-interception line is 1 game in.
Michael Penix Jr. is the projected starting quarterback for ATL
10.64 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 479 passing yards, completed 73.3% of his passes and averaged 10.64 yards per attempt. Last season over 9 games he threw for 1982 yards, completed 60.1% and averaged 7.18 yards per attempt, 9-3 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 2-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
TRENCHES
ATL: 48.3 rushing yards allowed per game to BAL's 100
51.8 YPGAtlanta is allowing just 48.3 rushing yards a game, less than half of Baltimore's 100, both over four games. The sheet does not show which offenses Atlanta faced, and a low number can come from opponents falling behind and passing instead of running. Expect it to rise. Against Baltimore, a team built around the run, this Falcons front faces a much tougher test than most, so do not assume the Ravens get shut down on the ground.
PACE & SCRIPT
BAL: 29 points per game to ATL's 24
5 PPGBAL is at 29 points per game over 4 games; ATL is at 24 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season BAL was at 24.9 over 17 games and ATL at 20.8 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
BAL: 1.25 takeaways per game to ATL's 0.75
0.5 TOBaltimore has forced 1.25 takeaways a game, Atlanta 0.75, both across four games. Takeaways bounce around week to week, and four games means the difference is two turnovers total. That kind of gap often closes. It is a modest point in Baltimore's favor at Atlanta, best weighed lightly against the yardage and efficiency numbers.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
BAL: 6.58 yards per play to ATL's 5.88
0.7 Y/PBaltimore gains 6.58 yards a play, up from 5.92 last season. Atlanta is up too, to 5.88 from 5.38. Both offenses are running hotter than last season over 4 games, so some cooling is likely, but Baltimore has the edge in efficiency either way. Two improved offenses can push the scoring pace up.
RED ZONE
BAL: 3.75 red-zone trips per game to ATL's 2.5
1.25 TRIPSBAL is at 3.75 red-zone trips per game over 4 games; ATL is at 2.5 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season BAL was at 3.47 over 17 games and ATL at 2.94 over 17 games.
MISMATCH
BAL: 0.5 turnovers a game to ATL's 2
0.5 VS 2Baltimore is giving the ball away 0.5 times a game, Atlanta 2 times, over 4 games. Last season Baltimore was at 1.35 and Atlanta at 1.06, so this gap is mostly four-game noise in both directions. Turnovers swing a lot week to week and should move back toward those marks. Atlanta's job is simple: protect the ball, because extra short fields for Baltimore are how this one gets away.
COVERAGE
BAL: 215.3 passing yards allowed per game to ATL's 264.8
49.5 YPGBaltimore allows 215.3 passing yards a game, Atlanta 264.8, both across four games. Passing yards against can inflate when a defense plays with a lead and opponents throw late, so the gap may say as much about scripts as coverage. The opposing quarterbacks aren't on the sheet. Atlanta's bigger number is the one to weigh if Baltimore's passing game gets room to work at Atlanta.
REPLACEMENT
Andrew Vorhees (G) is out for BAL
OUTBaltimore is without guard Andrew Vorhees for Sunday night at Atlanta, inactive with a foot injury as of Oct 11. Inactive is final: he will not dress. The fact sheet does not name his replacement, so the open question is who fills that interior line spot and how a reshuffled front holds up in pass protection and the run game.
Za'Darius Smith (DE) is out for ATL
OUTSmith carries two problems, a concussion and a neck injury, and the downgrade to out on Oct 11 removes any guesswork for Sunday against Baltimore. Out means he will not play. A concussion has its own return protocol, so his status beyond this week depends on how he clears it. The sheet does not name who takes his edge snaps, so look at Atlanta's pass rush depth before backing any sack or pressure angle against the Ravens.
Christian Harris (LB) is out for ATL
OUTATL lists Christian Harris as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 11.
Aeneas Peebles (DT) is out for BAL
OUTBAL lists Aeneas Peebles as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 11.
Trey Hendrickson (LB) is out for BAL
OUTBAL lists Trey Hendrickson as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 11.
Robert Longerbeam (CB) is out for ATL
OUTATL lists Robert Longerbeam as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 11.
Malcolm DeWalt IV (CB) is out for ATL
OUTATL lists Malcolm DeWalt IV as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 11.
Ethan Onianwa (OT) is out for ATL
OUTATL lists Ethan Onianwa as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 11.
Cam Jurgens (C) is out for BAL
OUTBAL lists Cam Jurgens as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 11.
Elijah Sarratt (WR) is out for BAL
OUTBaltimore lists Sarratt as out for the game in Atlanta. The report gives no injury detail or timeline, and with Lamar Jackson also out, the Ravens' passing game is thin at more than one spot this week.
Jack Strand (QB) is out for ATL
OUTAtlanta lists Strand as out for Sunday against Baltimore. No injury or timeline is given, and as a quarterback outside the starting picture his absence should not change much for this game.
Lamar Jackson (QB) is out for BAL
OUTJackson is Baltimore's quarterback and the center of its offense, so an out tag is as big as absences get for this team. The report gives no injury detail or timeline, and the sheet does not name who starts in his place. Expect the Ravens' numbers in Atlanta to look different from what they show with him under center.
Cooper Rush (QB) is out for ATL
OUTRush is inactive for Sunday against the Ravens as a coach's decision, which means no injury. He will serve as Atlanta's emergency quarterback, so he only sees the field if things go badly wrong at the position.
Matt Hibner (TE) is questionable for BAL
QUESTIONABLEHibner (hand) is questionable to return to Sunday night's contest against the Falcons. Reported Oct 12.
Ja'Kobi Lane (WR) is on injured reserve for BAL
IRRavens coach Jesse Minter said Friday that Lane (wrist) is "doing really well" and "has put himself in a great position to be ready to roll when the time permits." Reported Oct 9.
Durham Smythe (TE) is on injured reserve for BAL
IRThe Ravens placed Smythe (Achilles) on their injured reserve list Wednesday, Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official site reports. Reported Oct 7.
Yasir Abdullah (LB) is on injured reserve for ATL
IRThe Falcons placed Abdullah (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports. Reported Oct 11.
Ethan Pocic (C) is on injured reserve for BAL
IRBaltimore placed Pocic (knee) on injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 4.
Jovaughn Gwyn (G) is on injured reserve for BAL
IRThe Ravens moved Gwyn (ankle) to injured reserve Saturday. Reported Oct 4.
PRACTICE REPORT
Yasir Abdullah
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Lamar Jackson
OutAnkle · Did not practice · Out
Trey Hendrickson
OutFinger · Did not practice · Out
Cam Jurgens
OutConcussion · Did not practice · Out
Za'Darius Smith
QuestionableConcussion, Neck · Limited practice · Questionable
Samson Ebukam
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Jake Matthews
QuestionableGroin · Full practice · Questionable
Divine Deablo
QuestionableHamstring · Limited practice · Questionable
Zay Flowers
QuestionableFoot · Limited practice · Questionable
Andrew Vorhees
QuestionableFoot · Limited practice · Questionable
Marlon Humphrey
QuestionableHamstring, Calf · Limited practice · Questionable
Durham Smythe
DNPAchilles · Did not practice
Calais Campbell
DNPDid not practice
Ronnie Stanley
LPLimited practice
Mark Andrews
FPFull practice
Kyle Hamilton
FPFull practice
Rashod Bateman
FPFull practice
John Simpson
FPFull practice
Chris Moore
FPFull practice
Michael Jerrell
FPFull practice
Cameron Thomas
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
BAL: 241.5 team passing yards per game to ATL's 179.5
62 YPGBaltimore throws for about 62 more yards a game than Atlanta over 4 games. That is a big shift for Baltimore, which was at 175.6 last season, while Atlanta dropped from 207.2. Baltimore leaning on the pass this much is new, and game script from 4 games can inflate it. Watch whether the Ravens keep throwing in Atlanta or return to their old balance.
BAL: 8.85 yards per pass attempt to ATL's 7.15
1.7 Y/ABAL is at 8.85 yards per pass attempt over 4 games; ATL is at 7.15 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 10. Last season BAL was at 6.69 over 17 games and ATL at 6.21 over 17 games.
BAL (3-1) at ATL (2-2)
-16 PT GAPBoth teams come in on two-game win streaks, but Baltimore is +20 and 2-0 on the road while Atlanta is just +4. The Falcons' 2-2 is about who they are on the margin, and their 0-1 home mark is one game. The Ravens have the stronger profile, though a 16-point differential gap is modest. Think of this as a closer matchup than the record gap implies.
AFTER GARY
ATL -3.5 → -3.5
NO MOVEGary's number was -3.5; the same book now shows -3.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 8, 2026 at 4:52 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKRASHOD BATEMANRECEIVING YARDS OVER 16.5
I'm backing Bateman over 16.5 receiving yards at -115. He needs 17 yards, a manageable total even with Huntley replacing Jackson. Atlanta's stout run defense should push Baltimore toward passing, and the secondary has an opening: Mike Hughes has allowed 221 yards on 21 coverage targets this season. That gives Baltimore somewhere to attack without assuming a specific defender follows Bateman. Bateman has produced 46, 37 and 88 yards in his last three games, including useful yardage on just two catches in each of the latest two.
The strongest concern is opportunity. Bateman played fewer than half Baltimore's offensive snaps last week and received only two targets. Flowers is expected to play, and Andrews remains another established option. Those three productive games came with Jackson starting, so I expect a reduction in passing efficiency. The low threshold still leaves enough room for a small receiving contribution to cash.
- GARY'S PICKTYLER HUNTLEYPASSING COMPLETIONS OVER 17.5
I'm taking Huntley over 17.5 completions at -132. Atlanta's run defense gives Baltimore a reason to throw more often: the Falcons have allowed just 2.7 yards per carry through four games. Their ability to generate pressure with four rushers also makes quick completions a sensible response. Flowers' movement around the formation and Andrews' steady involvement give Huntley options for those throws. With Huntley starting the entire game and Atlanta my pick to cover, I expect enough passing volume to reach 18 completions.
The strongest objection is his previous starting workload. Huntley completed 16 passes against Green Bay and 17 against Chicago last season, both below this line. Atlanta's large passing totals allowed also reflect opponents chasing leads, rather than consistently easy throws. His eight completions in relief last week establish little about a full game. At this price, I'm making a modest bet on increased attempts.
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