Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
O/U 43.5 · SPREAD Green Bay Packers -4.5 · Lambeau Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Atlanta Falcons +4.5 -104
- Published odds
- -104
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 35-14
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 54 moves| Market | Opened Sep 20 7:52 PM | Close Sep 24 3:53 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Green Bay Packers -7 (-105) | Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-110) | −2½ |
| TOTAL | 44.5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | −1½ |
| MONEYLINE | Green Bay Packers -325 | Green Bay Packers -250 | +75 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 20 7:52 PM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +260 |
| Sep 20 8:22 PM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +270 |
| Sep 20 8:52 PM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-110) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +270 |
| Sep 20 9:22 PM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-110) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -350 · Atlanta Falcons +280 |
| Sep 20 9:52 PM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +270 |
| Sep 20 11:23 PM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-110) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +270 |
| Sep 21 6:00 AM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +270 |
| Sep 21 7:30 AM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +270 |
| Sep 21 8:00 AM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +260 |
| Sep 21 8:30 AM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +270 |
| Sep 21 9:31 AM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-110) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +260 |
| Sep 21 10:01 AM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-108) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +260 |
| Sep 21 11:01 AM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-108) | 44 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +260 |
| Sep 21 11:31 AM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-108) | 44 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +270 |
| Sep 21 12:01 PM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-102) | 44 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +270 |
| Sep 21 12:32 PM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-105) | 44 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +270 |
| Sep 21 4:33 PM | Green Bay Packers -7 (-102) | 44 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -325 · Atlanta Falcons +270 |
| Sep 21 5:03 PM | Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-108) | 44 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -285 · Atlanta Falcons +230 |
| Sep 21 5:15 PM | Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110) | 44 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -295 · Atlanta Falcons +240 |
| Sep 21 9:20 PM | Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110) | 44 (-112) | Green Bay Packers -295 · Atlanta Falcons +240 |
| Sep 21 10:51 PM | Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-105) | Green Bay Packers -295 · Atlanta Falcons +240 |
| Sep 22 12:22 AM | Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -295 · Atlanta Falcons +240 |
| Sep 22 6:00 AM | Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -285 · Atlanta Falcons +230 |
| Sep 22 1:47 PM | Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-105) | 44 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -275 · Atlanta Falcons +225 |
| Sep 22 2:55 PM | Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-105) | 44 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -275 · Atlanta Falcons +230 |
| Sep 22 3:56 PM | Green Bay Packers -6 (-108) | 44.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -295 · Atlanta Falcons +240 |
| Sep 22 4:56 PM | Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110) | 44.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -295 · Atlanta Falcons +240 |
| Sep 22 5:57 PM | Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-105) | 44.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -295 · Atlanta Falcons +240 |
| Sep 22 6:57 PM | Green Bay Packers -6 (-108) | 43.5 (-112) | Green Bay Packers -285 · Atlanta Falcons +230 |
| Sep 22 8:58 PM | Green Bay Packers -6 (-110) | 44 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -285 · Atlanta Falcons +230 |
| Sep 22 9:58 PM | Green Bay Packers -5.5 (-110) | 44 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -275 · Atlanta Falcons +220 |
| Sep 23 12:58 AM | Green Bay Packers -5.5 (-110) | 44 (-105) | Green Bay Packers -275 · Atlanta Falcons +225 |
| Sep 23 5:01 AM | Green Bay Packers -5.5 (-108) | 44 (-105) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +210 |
| Sep 23 8:00 AM | Green Bay Packers -5.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +210 |
| Sep 23 8:59 AM | Green Bay Packers -5.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +210 |
| Sep 23 9:49 AM | Green Bay Packers -5.5 (-108) | 43.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -235 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 23 11:04 AM | Green Bay Packers -5 (-110) | 43 (-112) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 23 12:04 PM | Green Bay Packers -5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +210 |
| Sep 23 2:05 PM | Green Bay Packers -5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -275 · Atlanta Falcons +210 |
| Sep 23 3:05 PM | Green Bay Packers -5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 23 4:06 PM | Green Bay Packers -5 (-108) | 43 (-108) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 23 5:06 PM | Green Bay Packers -5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -235 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 23 8:07 PM | Green Bay Packers -5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 23 8:38 PM | Green Bay Packers -5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -275 · Atlanta Falcons +220 |
| Sep 23 10:09 PM | Green Bay Packers -5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +210 |
| Sep 24 5:00 AM | Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +210 |
| Sep 24 6:30 AM | Green Bay Packers -5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +210 |
| Sep 24 9:00 AM | Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-110) | 42.5 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -235 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 24 9:31 AM | Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-110) | 43 (-105) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 24 10:31 AM | Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -235 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 24 11:00 AM | Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 24 12:22 PM | Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-105) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 24 2:53 PM | Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-108) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 24 3:23 PM | Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -275 · Atlanta Falcons +210 |
| CLOSESep 24 3:53 PM | Green Bay Packers -4.5 (-110) | 43 (-110) | Green Bay Packers -250 · Atlanta Falcons +210 |
The read
The bet is Atlanta +4.5 at -104. The main question is whether Green Bay's offense, as it's built this week, can beat anyone by more than a field goal. Nothing so far says it can. Through two games the Packers have -0.195 EPA per play and a 35.9% success rate. They convert 19% of third downs (3-of-12 in Week 1). They average 3.3 yards per carry with no rushing touchdown, and they have -0.442 EPA on 18 red-zone snaps. Tucker Kraft said it himself: drives 'fizzle out' and they settle for threes. They won last week with 199 total yards and still needed overtime against the Jets.
This week the line in front of Love is thinner than the one that let him get hit 18 times in two games (8.97% sack rate). Bako-Bewele is out for the year, so rookie Belton starts at right tackle. Left guard Banks is out, and Jennings, who started in his place in Week 1, is questionable with a hand injury. Reed is out as well, so the passing game narrows to Watson, Golden and Kraft. Reporting says Ulbrich's defense blitzes a lot and plays mostly single-high man coverage. That's the kind of pressure that swung the Minnesota game once Love had no time to throw. Add a league-high 26 penalties and you get an offense that stalls and gives away free yards. Teams like that win close games, not 5-point games.
Second, Atlanta's 8 points per game came from Cooper Rush and an undrafted rookie. The 7 giveaways, 9.3% interception rate and 4.0 yards per attempt describe that quarterback room, not this whole roster. Penix is back, and Rees says he's 'moving well' and has 'looked sharp without many limitations.' LaFleur expects Atlanta's offense 'to look a little bit different.' The Falcons' defense has been fine. It allows -0.084 EPA per play and a 30% success rate in the red zone. It held Pittsburgh to 20 in a game that included a pick-six. Against Carolina, three of the first four drives ended in giveaways (two turnovers and a turnover on downs), and the defense still kept it 10-0 after the first quarter. Green Bay has only 1 takeaway in two games, so the defense isn't built to punish a returning quarterback. Bijan Robinson gives Atlanta a floor, and the new screen game is designed to take pressure off Penix.
The market is pricing Atlanta as a team ranked 31st, coming off a 34-3 embarrassment with backups at QB. I think the quarterback change is worth more than that, and Green Bay's name and home-opener streak are holding up more of this number than its offense has earned.
The risk is real. Penix hasn't taken a live snap in more than 10 months, and he's making that return on the road in prime time. The front he faces allows 2.85 yards per carry, and Van Ness is coming off a 9-pressure game. Atlanta hasn't run a single red-zone snap this year. Its 10.8% sack rate, with Jawaan Taylor questionable at right tackle, could mean more turnovers. Ebukam and Terrell are also gone from the defense this week. If Penix is rusty and gives the ball away, this game gets away from Atlanta. Even so, Green Bay hasn't shown it can turn its edges into margin. The 4.5 points cover the 3- and 4-point results that a game between two sputtering offenses tends to produce, and -104 is the better price. The +210 moneyline is tempting, but I'll take the points.
Injuries noted
Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr. (Questionable) — The Falcons announced that Penix (knee) has been named the team's starting quarterback for Thursday's game against the Packers, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.; Billy Bowman Jr. (Questionable) — Bowman (Achilles) is officially listed as questionable for Thursday's game at Green Bay, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.; Storm Norton (PUP-R) — out; DeAngelo Malone (PUP-R) — Undisclosed; Anterio Thompson (NFI-R) — The Falcons moved Thompson (undisclosed) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Jalon Walker (IR) — Knee - ACL; James Pearce Jr. (Reserve-Sus) — reserve-sus; JD Bertrand (IR) — The Falcons placed Bertrand (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Beaux Collins (IR-R) — The Falcons placed Collins (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return during the season, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Trey Sermon (IR) — ir; Tua Tagovailoa (Questionable) — Tagovailoa (ankle) was estimated as a limited participant in Monday's walk-through practice, Marc Raimondi of ESPN.com reports.; Cameron Williams (IR) — The Falcons placed Williams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Da'Shawn Hand (IR) — The Falcons placed Hand (quadriceps) on injured reserve Wednesday, William McFadden of the team's official site reports.; A.J. Terrell Jr. (IR) — The Falcons placed Terrell (groin) on injured reserve Tuesday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.; Jawaan Taylor (Questionable) — Taylor (ribs) was listed as limited on the Falcons' estimated injury report Monday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports.; Samson Ebukam (Out) — Ebukam (hamstring) is officially listed as out for Thursday's game against the Packers, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.; Brandon Dorlus (Questionable) — Dorlus (thumb) was a limited participant in Monday's estimated practice, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.; Nick Muse (Questionable) — Muse (shoulder) was a limited participant in Monday's estimated practice, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.; Brian Robinson Jr. (Questionable) — Robinson was listed as a limited participant in Monday's walkthrough practice due to an ankle injury, Marc Raimondi of ESPN.com reports.
Green Bay Packers: Luke Musgrave (PUP-R) — Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Tuesday that he's "really hopeful" Musgrave (neck) will be able to play at some point during the 2026 season, Ryan Wood of USA Today reports.; Micah Parsons (PUP-R) — Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Tuesday that Parsons (knee) could return from the PUP list when first eligible in Week 5, Ryan Wood of USA Today reports. "We have a pretty good idea once we get out of that four-game window we're going to be pretty close," Gutekunst said.; Jordon Riley (PUP-R) — out; Johnathan Baldwin II (IR) — ir; Marlon Jones (IR) — Undisclosed; Warren Brinson (Out) — Brinson (calf) has been ruled out ahead of Thursday night's game against the Falcons, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Trey Dean III (IR) — Dean (undisclosed) reverted to the Packers' injured-reserve list Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Collin Oliver (IR-R) — Oliver is dealing with Achilles and calf injuries. and is considered week-to-week, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Savion Williams (IR-R) — ir; Thomas Yassmin (IR) — Green Bay reverted Yassmin (undisclosed) to injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Aaron Banks (Out) — Banks (toe) has been ruled out ahead of Thursday night's game against the Falcons, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Anthony Campbell (Questionable) — Campbell (ankle) was listed as a non-participant in Monday's estimated practice report, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.; Brandon Cisse (Questionable) — questionable; Zach Bako-Bewele (Out) — Bako-Bewele said he sustained a complete tear of his right patellar tendon in Sunday's 20-17 overtime win over the Jets and will undergo season-ending surgery Thursday, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports.; Javon Hargrave (Questionable) — Hargrave (concussion/knee) is listed as questionable ahead of Thursday night's game against the Falcons, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reported Wednesday.; Benjamin St-Juste (Questionable) — out; Jayden Reed (Out) — Reed (neck) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Falcons, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Donovan Jennings (Questionable) — Jennings (hand) did not participate in Monday's estimated practice, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.; Edgerrin Cooper (Questionable) — Cooper (shoulder) was listed as a limited participant on the Packers' estimated injury report Monday.; Anthony Belton (Questionable) — questionable
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Michael Penix Jr. is the projected starting quarterback for ATL
7.18 Y/AIn 2025, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 1982 passing yards, completed 60.1% of his passes and averaged 7.18 yards per attempt. His 9-3 touchdown-to-interception line puts that prior-season passing production in the context of his ball security over the same sample.
Jordan Love is the projected starting quarterback for GB
7.49 Y/AThrough 2 games in 2026, Jordan Love threw for 532 passing yards, completed 52.1% of his passes and averaged 7.49 yards per attempt. Last season over 15 games he threw for 3381 yards, completed 66.3% and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, 23-6 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 4-1 touchdown-to-interception line is 2 games in.
TRENCHES
ATL: 63 rushing yards allowed per game to GB's 87
24 YPGATL is at 63 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; GB is at 87 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 23.
PASS RUSH
GB: 3.5 sacks recorded per game to ATL's 2
1.5 SACKSGreen Bay is averaging 3.5 sacks a game, and Atlanta is at two. That comes from two games, and sack totals depend on which offensive lines each defense faced, which the sheet doesn't show. Pass rush holds up better than most early-season stats, so Green Bay probably has a real edge. For this game, pressure on Atlanta's quarterback can stall drives, which is worth weighing on his passing props.
PACE & SCRIPT
GB: 21 points per game to ATL's 8
13 PPGATL is at 8 points per game over 2 games; GB is at 21 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 23. Last season ATL was at 20.8 over 17 games and GB at 23 over 17 games.
ATL: 30:48 time of possession per game to GB's 27:00
3:49 TOPATL is at 30:48 time of possession per game over 2 games; GB is at 27:00 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 23. Last season ATL was at 30:00 over 17 games and GB at 29:48 over 17 games.
TURNOVERS
GB: 0.5 interceptions thrown per game to ATL's 2.5
2 INTATL is at 2.5 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; GB is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 23. Last season ATL was at 0.47 over 17 games and GB at 0.41 over 17 games.
GB: 1.5 turnovers committed per game to ATL's 3.5
2 TOATL is at 3.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; GB is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 23. Last season ATL was at 1.06 over 17 games and GB at 0.76 over 17 games.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
GB: 5.15 yards per play to ATL's 4.25
0.9 Y/PGreen Bay has picked up more per snap, but read the details. Two of Love's three 20+ yard plays last game were defensive pass interference penalties on incompletions to Golden. Atlanta's 4.25 over 2 games is well below its 5.38 last season, with Cooper Rush at quarterback and only one 20+ yard play, a 25-yarder to London. Both teams sit below last season's pace, so expect some movement back up. Atlanta's offense under Rush is the part to watch.
RED ZONE
ATL: 50% red-zone scoring allowed to GB's 85.7%
35.7 PPATL is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 2 games; GB is at 85.7% over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 23.
MISMATCH
GB: 244.5 pass yards a game to ATL's 123.5
244.5 VS 123.5Through two games, Green Bay has thrown for about twice as many yards as Atlanta, and most of that gap comes from Atlanta falling off. The Falcons threw for 207.2 a game last season, so 123.5 looks like a two-game slump more than their real level. Green Bay's 244.5 is only a bit above its 212.8 from last season. Expect Atlanta's passing to move back toward last season's number, so the real gap in this game is probably smaller than the headline suggests.
COVERAGE
ATL: 33.3% third downs allowed to GB's 47.1%
13.7 PPAtlanta has let opponents convert 33.3% of third downs, and Green Bay has allowed 47.1%, both over 2 games. Third-down rates are among the noisiest early numbers because they rest on only a couple dozen snaps, so both should drift toward the middle. For this game, Falcons drives look more likely to stay alive than Packers drives.
GB: 175 passing yards allowed per game to ATL's 239
64 YPGATL is at 239 passing yards allowed per game over 2 games; GB is at 175 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 23.
GB: 3.95 yards per play allowed to ATL's 4.9
0.95 Y/PATL is at 4.9 yards per play allowed over 2 games; GB is at 3.95 over 2 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Sep 23.
REPLACEMENT
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) is questionable for ATL
QUESTIONABLEPenix carries a questionable tag for a knee issue, but the Falcons already named him their starter for Thursday in Green Bay. Questionable usually means a real chance a player sits, and here the team has told you he is playing. The tag matters less than it looks, though keep an eye on whether the knee limits how much he moves around.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) is questionable for ATL
QUESTIONABLETagovailoa has an ankle injury, and on Monday he was estimated as limited, which means the team held a walk-through and guessed what he could have done in a real practice. Questionable means roughly a coin flip to play. The sheet does not name a backup, so check the final injury report before Thursday's game at Green Bay. If he sits or is limited, lean away from Atlanta passing props.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB) is questionable for ATL
QUESTIONABLERobinson has an ankle injury and was listed as limited in Monday's walk-through. That was an estimate from a light session, not a full practice. Questionable leaves his status for Thursday at Green Bay open, and a running back with a sore ankle can play and still get fewer carries. Wait for the final report before backing his rushing numbers.
Cooper Rush (QB) is inactive for ATL
INACTIVERush is inactive for Thursday's game at Green Bay as a coach's decision, which means the team chose to sit him and no injury is listed. He will not play in this one, and nothing on the sheet points to a change in Atlanta's plan at quarterback.
Jack Strand (QB) is inactive for ATL
INACTIVEStrand is inactive for Thursday's game against the Packers as a coach's decision, with no injury listed. He will not suit up, so this is a depth move and does not signal a change for Atlanta's starter.
Nick Muse (TE) is questionable for ATL
QUESTIONABLEMuse has a shoulder injury and was estimated as limited on Monday, so it was a guess from a light session. He is questionable for Thursday at Green Bay. The sheet does not show how much Atlanta uses him, so this matters most to anyone betting on Falcons tight ends.
Jawaan Taylor (OT) is questionable for ATL
QUESTIONABLETaylor (ribs) was listed as limited on the Falcons' estimated injury report Monday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 22.
Billy Bowman Jr. (CB) is questionable for ATL
QUESTIONABLEBowman (Achilles) is officially listed as questionable for Thursday's game at Green Bay, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 23.
Brandon Dorlus (DT) is questionable for ATL
QUESTIONABLEDorlus (thumb) was a limited participant in Monday's estimated practice, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 21.
Edgerrin Cooper (LB) is questionable for GB
QUESTIONABLECooper is being evaluated for a possible concussion and is questionable to return to Thursday's game against the Falcons. Reported Sep 25.
Javon Hargrave (DT) is questionable for GB
QUESTIONABLEHargrave (concussion/knee) is listed as questionable ahead of Thursday night's game against the Falcons, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reported Wednesday. Reported Sep 23.
Donovan Jennings (G) is questionable for GB
QUESTIONABLEJennings (hand) did not participate in Monday's estimated practice, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. Reported Sep 22.
Anthony Belton (OT) is questionable for GB
QUESTIONABLEGB lists Anthony Belton as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 22.
Benjamin St-Juste (CB) is questionable for GB
QUESTIONABLEGB lists Benjamin St-Juste as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
Brandon Cisse (CB) is questionable for GB
QUESTIONABLEGB lists Brandon Cisse as questionable on the injury report. Reported Sep 21.
Samson Ebukam (DE) is inactive for ATL
INACTIVEEbukam (hamstring) is officially listed as out for Thursday's game against the Packers, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports. Reported Sep 23.
Anthony Campbell (DT) is inactive for GB
INACTIVECampbell (ankle) is inactive for Thursday Night Football against the Falcons, Mike Spofford of the Packers' official site reports. Reported Sep 24.
Jayden Reed (WR) is inactive for GB
INACTIVEGB lists Jayden Reed as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 24.
Warren Brinson (DT) is inactive for GB
INACTIVEBrinson (calf) has been ruled out ahead of Thursday night's game against the Falcons, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports. Reported Sep 24.
Aaron Banks (G) is inactive for GB
INACTIVEBanks (toe) has been ruled out ahead of Thursday night's game against the Falcons, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports. Reported Sep 24.
A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB) is on injured reserve for ATL
IRThe Falcons placed Terrell (groin) on injured reserve Tuesday, Tori McElhaney of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 22.
Robert Longerbeam (CB) is inactive for ATL
INACTIVEATL lists Robert Longerbeam as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 24.
Ethan Onianwa (OT) is inactive for ATL
INACTIVEATL lists Ethan Onianwa as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 24.
Malcolm DeWalt IV (CB) is inactive for ATL
INACTIVEATL lists Malcolm DeWalt IV as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 24.
Zach Bako-Bewele (OT) is inactive for GB
INACTIVEGB lists Zach Bako-Bewele as inactive on the injury report. Reported Sep 24.
Cameron Williams (OL) is on injured reserve for ATL
IRThe Falcons placed Williams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 12.
Da'Shawn Hand (DT) is on injured reserve for ATL
IRThe Falcons placed Hand (quadriceps) on injured reserve Wednesday, William McFadden of the team's official site reports. Reported Sep 17.
PRACTICE REPORT
Warren Brinson
OutCalf · Did not practice · Out
Samson Ebukam
OutHamstring · Did not practice · Out
Aaron Banks
OutKnee, Toe · Did not practice · Out
Jayden Reed
OutNeck · Did not practice · Out
Zach Bako-Bewele
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Billy Bowman Jr.
QuestionableAchilles · Full practice · Questionable
Javon Hargrave
QuestionableKnee, Concussion · Limited practice · Questionable
Anthony Campbell
QuestionableAnkle · Limited practice · Questionable
Za'Darius Smith
DNPDid not practice
Ty'Ron Hopper
LPLimited practice
Lukas Van Ness
LPLimited practice
Donovan Jennings
LPLimited practice
Barryn Sorrell
LPLimited practice
Chris Lindstrom
LPLimited practice
Kendal Daniels
LPLimited practice
Edgerrin Cooper
LPHead · Limited practice
Devonte Wyatt
LPLimited practice
Anthony Belton
FPFull practice
Brandon Dorlus
FPFull practice
LaCale London
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
ATL: 67.5 penalty yards per game to GB's 115.5
48 YDSATL is at 67.5 penalty yards per game over 2 games; GB is at 115.5 over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 23. Last season ATL was at 48.2 over 17 games and GB at 48.1 over 17 games.
ATL: 50% fourth-down conversion rate to GB's 0%
50 PPATL is at 50% fourth-down conversion rate over 2 games; GB is at 0% over 2 games. Those are this season's games through Sep 23. Last season ATL was at 50% over 17 games and GB at 56% over 17 games.
ATL (0-2) at GB (1-1)
+24 PT GAPAtlanta is 0-2 and has been outscored by 38, including a road loss. Green Bay is 1-1 and minus 14, and it has yet to play at home. Both point totals are in the red, so the 24-point gap here separates a bad start from a mediocre one. Two games is too few to call either team who it is. The Packers' first home game is the unknown worth pricing in.
ATL is on a short week
4d vs 4dATL and GB both come in on 4 days since their last games, so the schedule is even. Both staffs had less time to prepare, which usually means simpler game plans. Rest is not an edge for either side here.
AFTER GARY
ATL +4.5 → +4.5
GARY +0.24PPGary's number was 4.5; the same book now shows 4.5.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 24, 2026 at 10:34 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, fanatics, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJORDAN LOVEPASSING COMPLETIONS UNDER 20.5
I'm taking Jordan Love under 20.5 completions at -165. The price implies about 62%, and I think the number sits a completion or two above where this game settles.
Start with the two games he has played this season. He completed 21 of 42 in Minnesota and 16 of 29 against the Jets, which is 37 of 71, or 52.1%. The 21 only happened because he threw 42 times while the Vikings ran off 29 straight points and forced him to chase. Even with all that volume, it would have lost this bet by half a completion. His 2025 closing stretch tells the same story: 18.8 completions a game over his last 10, with only 3 of those 10 clearing 20.5. At a 52% clip he needs close to 40 attempts to get over, and the attempts line is 32.5.
The matchup pushes completions down further. The line in front of him is weaker than the one that allowed 18 hits in Week 1 and an 8.97% sack rate over two games. Zach Bako-Bewele is out for the year, so rookie Anthony Belton is making his first start at right tackle after taking 56 snaps in relief. Aaron Banks is out at left guard, and Donovan Jennings, who filled in there in Week 1, is questionable with a hand injury. Jayden Reed is out too. He's the slot receiver who catches the quick, high-percentage throws, and the targets left over go to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, who win vertically. That makes for fewer easy completions and more incompletions downfield. Green Bay is also 3.5 points favored at home in the script I expect, a tight game where the Packers aren't forced into a 40-attempt comeback.
The strongest case against this bet is Atlanta's secondary. A.J. Terrell went on injured reserve Tuesday, so C.J. Henderson takes his spot, and Billy Bowman is questionable. Opposing quarterbacks already have a 97.8 rating against this defense across two games. If Penix returns sharp and Atlanta takes an early lead, Love could get pushed back toward 40 attempts, the same way he did in Minneapolis. It's also a two-game sample for 2026. I'll still take the under, because even the Week 1 blowout script came up short of 21.
- GARY'S PICKCHRIS BROOKSRECEPTIONS UNDER 1.5
I'm taking Chris Brooks under 1.5 receptions at -167. To cash, he needs one catch or none, and that's what he has done in most of his games.
Brooks is the RB2 behind MarShawn Lloyd. He played 46% of the offensive snaps against the Jets and has drawn 1.5 targets a game this season. His catches in 2026 are 0 in Week 1 and 1 in Week 2, on 5.5 carries a game. Last season his six recorded games went 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, so he reached two catches twice and never got a third. Green Bay's backfield also has more mouths to feed than it did a month ago. Kaleb Johnson arrived by trade in late August, and Lloyd is the lead back. Brooks fights both of them for the few running back targets this offense throws, and in the Week 1 shootout, where Love threw 42 passes, no Green Bay back caught a ball. The featured targets are Watson and Golden, with 19 and 18 targets through two games, and Tucker Kraft behind them.
The case against is real, and it's the reason my conviction is modest. Reed is out, and that takes away a short-area option, so some of those checkdowns could go to a back. The line is shaky, with a rookie at right tackle and backups at guard, and pressure tends to push a quarterback toward the flat. Brooks's snap share could come from pass protection work on third down, and that role can turn into a checkdown when the rush gets home. After Week 1, Green Bay also said getting backs involved as receivers was an area it wanted to explore. Two catches is a low bar, and one scripted screen plus one dumpoff clears it. Still, one catch or none has been his typical game across eight tracked games, and I'll lay the price on that.
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