Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
O/U 33.5 · SPREAD Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 · Acrisure Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Atlanta Falcons +6.5 -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 13-20
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
CAESARS · 26 moves| Market | Opened Sep 9 10:49 AM | Close Sep 13 11:36 AM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-109) | +3 |
| TOTAL | 41.5 (-118) | 40.5 (-114) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 | Pittsburgh Steelers -310 | −128 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 9 10:49 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 41.5 (-118) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 9 4:45 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 42 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 9 6:06 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-104) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 9 6:16 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 42 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 9 7:07 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-105) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 9 7:27 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 42 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 9 11:59 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 42 (-113) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 10 12:29 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-106) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 10 12:59 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 42 (-113) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 10 9:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 42.5 (-105) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 10 11:32 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 42 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 10 1:33 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-105) | 42 (-113) | Pittsburgh Steelers -182 · Atlanta Falcons +152 |
| Sep 10 2:33 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-117) | 41.5 (-117) | Pittsburgh Steelers -200 · Atlanta Falcons +169 |
| Sep 10 3:33 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4 (-110) | 41.5 (-117) | Pittsburgh Steelers -209 · Atlanta Falcons +174 |
| Sep 10 4:03 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-113) | Pittsburgh Steelers -225 · Atlanta Falcons +183 |
| Sep 10 4:33 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-113) | Pittsburgh Steelers -225 · Atlanta Falcons +185 |
| Sep 10 5:46 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-113) | Pittsburgh Steelers -225 · Atlanta Falcons +186 |
| Sep 10 6:26 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -225 · Atlanta Falcons +186 |
| Sep 10 6:46 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 (-110) | 41.5 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -235 · Atlanta Falcons +191 |
| Sep 11 6:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 (-114) | 41.5 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -235 · Atlanta Falcons +191 |
| Sep 11 1:02 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 (-108) | 41.5 (-109) | Pittsburgh Steelers -245 · Atlanta Falcons +200 |
| Sep 11 2:02 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (-108) | 41.5 (-106) | Pittsburgh Steelers -265 · Atlanta Falcons +215 |
| Sep 11 3:02 PM | Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (-108) | 41 (-112) | Pittsburgh Steelers -265 · Atlanta Falcons +215 |
| Sep 12 5:01 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -6 (-108) | 41 (-113) | Pittsburgh Steelers -265 · Atlanta Falcons +215 |
| Sep 13 10:14 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-109) | 40.5 (-117) | Pittsburgh Steelers -295 · Atlanta Falcons +235 |
| Sep 13 11:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-109) | 40.5 (-117) | Pittsburgh Steelers -310 · Atlanta Falcons +245 |
| CLOSESep 13 11:36 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (-109) | 40.5 (-114) | Pittsburgh Steelers -310 · Atlanta Falcons +245 |
The read
Sunday afternoon at Acrisure Stadium opens a new coaching era for both teams. Pittsburgh begins at home with Aaron Rodgers, while Atlanta arrives with its quarterback plans changed late in the week.
I’m taking Atlanta’s points because its strongest offensive piece remains available, and Pittsburgh has a substantial protection challenge of its own. Bijan Robinson finished last season with 1,478 rushing yards and 820 receiving yards. His contribution in both phases gives Atlanta a credible way to sustain possessions without making its replacement quarterback carry the offense. Kyle Pitts Sr. offers another option against a Pittsburgh defense that allowed opposing tight ends 6.4 receptions per game last season. Those numbers describe last year, but the returning Atlanta playmakers give that route relevance today.
Pittsburgh’s offensive line is where I see Atlanta’s opportunity to keep this competitive through four quarters. The projected group enters with 91 combined NFL starts, with only the center returning at the same starting position. Atlanta produced 57 sacks last season under returning defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. With 5 of 7 projected front-seven starters new, I’m not assuming that production repeats. Still, the documented pressure approach presents a concrete execution test for Pittsburgh’s rearranged line. Interrupting drives would make it harder for the Steelers to build and maintain separation.
The strongest argument against Atlanta is the fresh quarterback disruption. Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out on September 11, and Cooper Rush’s limited 2025 work produced no touchdown passes and four interceptions. Turnovers that hand Pittsburgh short fields could undo Atlanta’s possession game. Rodgers also has a direct answer to pressure: his 2.52-second average release last season supports Pittsburgh’s ability to get the ball out before the rush arrives.
I expect Robinson’s involvement and Atlanta’s pressure approach to keep the Falcons within reach into the fourth quarter. That is enough for me to take +6.5. The quarterback disadvantage keeps my conviction in the spread rather than the outright upset.
Injuries noted
Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr. (Out) — Penix (knee) will be out for Sunday's season opener in Pittsburgh but is targeting Week 2 or 3 for his 2026 debut, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Billy Bowman Jr. (Out) — Bowman (Achilles) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Steelers, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.; Storm Norton (PUP-R) — out; DeAngelo Malone (PUP-R) — Undisclosed; Anterio Thompson (NFI-R) — The Falcons moved Thompson (undisclosed) to the reserve/non-football injury list Sunday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Jalon Walker (IR) — Knee - ACL; James Pearce Jr. (Reserve-Sus) — reserve-sus; JD Bertrand (IR) — The Falcons placed Bertrand (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Beaux Collins (IR-R) — The Falcons placed Collins (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return during the season, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.; Trey Sermon (IR) — ir; Za'Darius Smith (Questionable) — Smith (shoulder), who is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Steelers, is expected to play, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Tua Tagovailoa (Out) — Tagovailoa (oblique) has been ruled out for Sunday's game at Pittsburgh, Tori McElhaney of the Falcons' official site reports.; Cameron Williams (IR) — The Falcons placed Williams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday, Will McFadden of the team's official site reports.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Daequan Hardy (IR) — Undisclosed; Cole Burgess (IR) — Undisclosed; Donte Kent (PUP-R) — The Steelers placed Kent (undisclosed) on the reserve/PUP list Monday, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.; Logan Lee (IR) — ir; Jack Driscoll (IR-R) — The Steelers placed Driscoll (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Teresa Varley of the team's official site reports.; DeShon Elliott (IR-R) — ir; Joey Porter Jr. (Questionable) — Porter (back) remains listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Falcons but isn't expected to play, Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter of ESPN report.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Michael Penix Jr. starts at quarterback for ATL
7.18 Y/AMichael Penix Jr. has 1,982 passing yards with 60.1% completions and 7.18 yards per attempt over 9 games, plus a 9-3 TD-INT line. No PIT defensive facts are supplied to define how ATL @ PIT tests that profile.
Aaron Rodgers starts at quarterback for PIT
6.67 Y/ARodgers's 2025 season line: 3322 passing yards, 65.7% completions, 6.67 yards per attempt, 24-7 TD-INT over 16 games.
TRENCHES
ATL is +22.5 rush yards per game (2025 season)
22.5 YPGATL is at 125.8 rushing yards per game over 17 games; PIT is at 103.3 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
PASS RUSH
ATL's offense takes 0.53 fewer sacks per game (2025 season)
0.53 SACKSATL is at 1.86 sacks taken per game over 17 games; PIT is at 2.38 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
PACE & SCRIPT
ATL @ PIT carries a 33.5 market total
33.5ATL-PIT’s 33.5 total is 14 points below the 47.5 median across 13 games with posted totals, marking a low-scoring environment relative to the slate. That expectation cracks if scoring rises substantially beyond the market’s level.
REPLACEMENT
Drew Allar (QB) is inactive for PIT
INACTIVEAllar (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Falcons. Reported Sep 13.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) is inactive for ATL
INACTIVEinactive Reported Sep 13.
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) is inactive for ATL
INACTIVEPenix (knee) will be out for Sunday's season opener in Pittsburgh but is targeting Week 2 or 3 for his 2026 debut, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 13.
Will Howard (QB) is inactive for PIT
INACTIVEHoward (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Steelers' emergency third quarterback against the Falcons on Sunday. Reported Sep 13.
PRACTICE REPORT
Billy Bowman Jr.
OutAchilles · Limited practice · Out
Tua Tagovailoa
OutOblique · Did not practice · Out
Michael Penix Jr.
OutKnee · Full practice · Out
Za'Darius Smith
QuestionableShoulder · Full practice · Questionable
Joey Porter Jr.
QuestionableBack · Limited practice · Questionable
Jake Matthews
DNPDid not practice
Kendal Daniels
FPFull practice
Zachariah Branch
FPFull practice
Kyle Hinton
FPFull practice
Jawaan Taylor
FPFull practice
Da'Shawn Hand
FPKnee · Full practice
Brandon Dorlus
FPFull practice
SITUATIONAL
PIT's third-down conversion rate is 6.7 percentage points higher (2025 season)
6.7 PPATL is at 33.3% third-down conversion rate over 17 games; PIT is at 40% over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
AFTER GARY
ATL +6.5 → +6.5
NO MOVEFANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKPAT FREIERMUTHRECEPTIONS OVER 2.5
Atlanta’s defense is aggressive, and Aaron Rodgers has historically answered pressure with quick, efficient completions. Freiermuth is positioned to work underneath coverage, while Pittsburgh’s tight-end usage should stress a Falcons defense that has had trouble containing this position. Three catches is a reasonable floor.
- GARY'S PICKKYLE PITTS SR.RECEIVING YARDS OVER 35.5
Pitts is the matchup piece I want here. Pittsburgh has the size to challenge him, but Atlanta’s quarterback situation points toward defined, quick throws, and Pitts remains one of the safest ways to keep the offense on schedule. A modest 36-yard target is well within his normal workload.
- THE LONG SHOT
BIJAN ROBINSONANYTIME TD OVER 0.5Atlanta’s offense has to run through Robinson, especially with Cooper Rush stepping in on short notice. He can score in multiple ways, and the Falcons should keep him involved near the goal line regardless of game script. This is the clearest touchdown path in Atlanta’s lineup.
- THE LONG SHOTRICO DOWDLEANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
Dowdle gives Pittsburgh the downhill element it needs behind a newly assembled line. If the Steelers establish control at home, his workload should grow in the red zone and late in the game. At plus money, I’m willing to back his scoring opportunity.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery NFL game this dayThe NFL recordToday's NFL picksEvery sport this day