Halloween afternoon in Winston-Salem, and No. 14 Wake Forest comes off a bye to host a Virginia team that has lost two straight and can't find its offense. I'm laying the 12.5 with the Deacons. Virginia can't keep pace. The Cavaliers have averaged 16 points over their last four games and scored 20 combined in true road games at Florida State and SMU. Beau Pribula is 53-of-97 for 576 yards in that stretch, under 6 yards an attempt. The offense has converted 15 of 55 third downs, turned only 6 of 13 red-zone trips into touchdowns and allowed 17 sacks. Now Jekail Middlebrook is out. Middlebrook has 498 yards on 102 carries against FBS teams; Xay Davis, expected to take the load, has 128 on 39. The 48-run, 38:47-possession plan that kept Duke close gets much harder without him. With Rico Flores Jr. out and Kameron Courtney doubtful, the passing game has little to lean on. Wake, meanwhile, is getting healthy at the right time. Gio Lopez is 140-of-207 for 1,947 yards, 17 touchdowns and one interception. Over its last three games, Wake has converted 25 of 40 third downs and scored touchdowns on 15 of 16 red-zone trips. Carlos Hernandez, who barely played at Cal, is probable after 720 yards in his first six games, and Jake Dickert says the defensive line got its rest. That offense meets a secondary without CB Omillio Agard, with safeties Corey Costner and Ethan Minter doubtful and Brandyn Hillman questionable. That group gave up six plays of 20-plus yards to Duke, and Virginia has 3 sacks in its last three games, so Lopez should have time. The risk is real. Wake needed overtime at Purdue, beat Louisville by 3 and lost to Miami, and Virginia's defense held Duke to 19 and SMU to 23. But Virginia isn't built for a late backdoor cover, with one to five plays of 20-plus yards in each of its last four games. Lopez is projected rather than confirmed, though he's on no injury report. Wake Forest -12.5.
Halloween afternoon in Winston-Salem, and No. 14 Wake Forest comes off a bye to host a Virginia team that has lost two straight and can't find its offense. I'm laying the 12.5 with the Deacons.
Virginia can't keep pace. The Cavaliers have averaged 16 points over their last four games and scored 20 combined in true road games at Florida State and SMU. Beau Pribula is 53-of-97 for 576 yards in that stretch, under 6 yards an attempt. The offense has converted 15 of 55 third downs, turned only 6 of 13 red-zone trips into touchdowns and allowed 17 sacks. Now Jekail Middlebrook is out. Middlebrook has 498 yards on 102 carries against FBS teams; Xay Davis, expected to take the load, has 128 on 39. The 48-run, 38:47-possession plan that kept Duke close gets much harder without him. With Rico Flores Jr. out and Kameron Courtney doubtful, the passing game has little to lean on.
Wake, meanwhile, is getting healthy at the right time. Gio Lopez is 140-of-207 for 1,947 yards, 17 touchdowns and one interception. Over its last three games, Wake has converted 25 of 40 third downs and scored touchdowns on 15 of 16 red-zone trips. Carlos Hernandez, who barely played at Cal, is probable after 720 yards in his first six games, and Jake Dickert says the defensive line got its rest. That offense meets a secondary without CB Omillio Agard, with safeties Corey Costner and Ethan Minter doubtful and Brandyn Hillman questionable. That group gave up six plays of 20-plus yards to Duke, and Virginia has 3 sacks in its last three games, so Lopez should have time.
The risk is real. Wake needed overtime at Purdue, beat Louisville by 3 and lost to Miami, and Virginia's defense held Duke to 19 and SMU to 23. But Virginia isn't built for a late backdoor cover, with one to five plays of 20-plus yards in each of its last four games. Lopez is projected rather than confirmed, though he's on no injury report. Wake Forest -12.5.
Wake Forest -12.5