Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  GIO LOPEZRUSHING YARDS OVER 17.5

  NCAAFWake Forest· -115

  LOST · ACTUAL -8

  GARY'S TAKE

  This is the same lever I leaned on for the spread. Miami's havoc is almost entirely a secondary product — 0.062 up front against Wake's 0.110 — and they've got three sacks through two games. That's a front seven that doesn't get home, which is exactly the profile that a play-extending quarterback eats alive. Lopez led Wake in carries back at Purdue, he's off to 101 yards on 17 carries through two weeks here, and the whole premise of my read on this game is that he keeps drives alive against zone coverage by using his legs when the first read isn't there. Seventeen and a half is a number I expect him to clear on broken plays and third-down scrambles alone, without needing a single designed run to hit for real yardage.

  ×

  Gio Lopez
  Rushing Yards over 17.5

  -115 · LOST · ACTUAL -8

  Wake Forest

  Read Gary’s Take

  This is the same lever I leaned on for the spread. Miami's havoc is almost entirely a secondary product — 0.062 up front against Wake's 0.110 — and they've got three sacks through two games.

  That's a front seven that doesn't get home, which is exactly the profile that a play-extending quarterback eats alive. Lopez led Wake in carries back at Purdue, he's off to 101 yards on 17 carries through two weeks here, and the whole premise of my read on this game is that he keeps drives alive against zone coverage by using his legs when the first read isn't there.

  Seventeen and a half is a number I expect him to clear on broken plays and third-down scrambles alone, without needing a single designed run to hit for real yardage.

• GARY'S PICK

  DARIAN MENSAHPASSING YARDS OVER 289.5

  NCAAFMiami· -115

  LOST · ACTUAL 220

  GARY'S TAKE

  Miami's offense is built to stay on schedule, not to hit home runs — first in the country in success rate, only 38th in explosiveness — and that shows up as a lot of completions adding up to a lot of yards rather than a couple of long scores. Wake's defense is letting opponents succeed at a 50% clip, 132nd nationally, which is the exact matchup for a high-percentage passer to compile yardage drive after drive. The risk is the leash — Mensah hasn't thrown a second-half pass all season because Miami has been up by four touchdowns at half both weeks. But my own case on the spread is that Wake keeps this closer than that this time, which means less reason for Cristobal to pull him early. If the game is still live into the third quarter the way I expect, 289.5 is well within reach.

  ×

  Darian Mensah
  Passing Yards over 289.5

  -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 220

  Miami

  Read Gary’s Take

  Miami's offense is built to stay on schedule, not to hit home runs — first in the country in success rate, only 38th in explosiveness — and that shows up as a lot of completions adding up to a lot of yards rather than a couple of long scores. Wake's defense is letting opponents succeed at a 50% clip, 132nd nationally, which is the exact matchup for a high-percentage passer to compile yardage drive after drive.

  The risk is the leash — Mensah hasn't thrown a second-half pass all season because Miami has been up by four touchdowns at half both weeks. But my own case on the spread is that Wake keeps this closer than that this time, which means less reason for Cristobal to pull him early.

  If the game is still live into the third quarter the way I expect, 289.5 is well within reach.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.