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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:45 PM

Virginia Cavaliers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

O/U 48.5 · SPREAD Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC

GARY'S PICK
Wake Forest -12.5
NCAAFvs Virginia· -110

Wake Forest
-12.5

-110 · CASHED · UVA 7 · WAKE 51

Virginia

The pick & result

Published pick
Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Won
Final score
7-51

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 51 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 25 12:31 PM
Close
Sat 3:17 PM
Move
SPREADWake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-110)−½
TOTAL49.5 (-110)47.5 (-115)−2
MONEYLINEWake Forest Demon Deacons -550Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525+25
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 25 12:31 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5 (-108)49.5 (-110)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -550 · Virginia Cavaliers +425
Oct 25 1:31 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5 (-108)49.5 (-112)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -550 · Virginia Cavaliers +425
Oct 25 2:31 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-110)49.5 (-110)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -600 · Virginia Cavaliers +450
Oct 25 3:31 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-110)49.5 (-110)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -625 · Virginia Cavaliers +475
Oct 25 4:31 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-110)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -625 · Virginia Cavaliers +475
Oct 26 6:00 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-110)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -650 · Virginia Cavaliers +475
Oct 26 9:31 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-110)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -625 · Virginia Cavaliers +475
Oct 26 10:31 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-108)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -625 · Virginia Cavaliers +475
Oct 26 7:03 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -550 · Virginia Cavaliers +425
Oct 27 6:00 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Oct 27 8:01 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Oct 27 12:01 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12 (-108)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Oct 27 6:02 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12 (-110)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Oct 27 6:33 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-112)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Oct 27 9:05 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-108)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Oct 28 6:00 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-108)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Oct 28 1:48 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-108)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Oct 28 2:18 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-108)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Oct 28 6:18 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-108)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Oct 28 10:21 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-108)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Thu 11:02 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-110)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -550 · Virginia Cavaliers +425
Thu 11:32 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -550 · Virginia Cavaliers +425
Thu 12:02 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Thu 1:02 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Thu 3:02 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-108)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Thu 3:33 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-108)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Thu 4:36 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)49.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Thu 5:06 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Thu 5:36 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Thu 7:36 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)48.5 (-120)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Thu 9:06 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)49.5 (-110)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Thu 10:07 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)49.5 (-105)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Fri 11:01 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)48.5 (-112)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Fri 4:02 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)48.5 (-110)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Fri 4:17 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)47.5 (-118)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Fri 7:23 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)48.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Fri 8:21 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)47.5 (-118)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 4:45 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)48.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 6:30 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-108)48.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -500 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 7:00 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)48.5 (-108)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 8:00 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)47.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 9:00 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110)47.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 10:01 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-112)47.5 (-118)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 10:31 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108)47.5 (-118)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 10:51 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108)47.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 11:33 AMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108)47.5 (-118)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 12:00 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108)47.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 12:34 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108)47.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 2:05 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-112)47.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 2:56 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-110)47.5 (-118)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
Sat 3:07 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-110)47.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -500 · Virginia Cavaliers +400
CLOSESat 3:17 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-110)47.5 (-115)Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Virginia Cavaliers +400

The read

Halloween afternoon in Winston-Salem, and No. 14 Wake Forest comes off a bye to host a Virginia team that has lost two straight and can't find its offense. I'm laying the 12.5 with the Deacons.

Virginia can't keep pace. The Cavaliers have averaged 16 points over their last four games and scored 20 combined in true road games at Florida State and SMU. Beau Pribula is 53-of-97 for 576 yards in that stretch, under 6 yards an attempt. The offense has converted 15 of 55 third downs, turned only 6 of 13 red-zone trips into touchdowns and allowed 17 sacks. Now Jekail Middlebrook is out. Middlebrook has 498 yards on 102 carries against FBS teams; Xay Davis, expected to take the load, has 128 on 39. The 48-run, 38:47-possession plan that kept Duke close gets much harder without him. With Rico Flores Jr. out and Kameron Courtney doubtful, the passing game has little to lean on.

Wake, meanwhile, is getting healthy at the right time. Gio Lopez is 140-of-207 for 1,947 yards, 17 touchdowns and one interception. Over its last three games, Wake has converted 25 of 40 third downs and scored touchdowns on 15 of 16 red-zone trips. Carlos Hernandez, who barely played at Cal, is probable after 720 yards in his first six games, and Jake Dickert says the defensive line got its rest. That offense meets a secondary without CB Omillio Agard, with safeties Corey Costner and Ethan Minter doubtful and Brandyn Hillman questionable. That group gave up six plays of 20-plus yards to Duke, and Virginia has 3 sacks in its last three games, so Lopez should have time.

The risk is real. Wake needed overtime at Purdue, beat Louisville by 3 and lost to Miami, and Virginia's defense held Duke to 19 and SMU to 23. But Virginia isn't built for a late backdoor cover, with one to five plays of 20-plus yards in each of its last four games. Lopez is projected rather than confirmed, though he's on no injury report. Wake Forest -12.5.

Injuries noted

Virginia Cavaliers: Noah Vaughn (questionable) — RB #3 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Corey Costner (doubtful) — S #4 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report; Kameron Courtney (doubtful) — WR #5 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report; Brandyn Hillman (questionable) — S #6 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Rico Flores Jr. (out) — WR #11 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Tim Hamann (out) — K #14 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jae'Oyn Williams (out) — ATH #17 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Dylan Cope (questionable) — WR #19 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Omillio Agard (out) — CB #20 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jekail Middlebrook (out) — RB #21 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Keke Adams (questionable) — S #21 listed Questionable on the ACC Update 2 report; Triston Ward (out) — WR #23 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Caleb Hardy (out) — LB #26 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Alex Dunn (out) — DB #27 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Ethan Minter (doubtful) — S #30 listed Doubtful on the ACC Update 2 report; Jack Stevens (out) — RB #37 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Isaiah Reese (out) — LB #42 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Chase Morrison (out) — DT #46 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Tyler Simmons (out) — DT #56 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Noah Hartsoe (out) — OL #58 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Grant Ellinger (out) — OL #65 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Justin Zames (out) — TE #87 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jason Hammond (out) — DT #91 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Bull Richardson (out) — DT #96 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Devon Baxter (out) — DE #99 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report

Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Carlos Hernandez (probable) — WR #8 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Tyler Walton (probable) — DL #14 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report; Devin Cook (out) — DB #15 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Elijah Otieno (out) — WR #20 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Dalton DeBoer (out) — OL #69 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report; Jack Hines (probable) — OL #78 listed Probable on the ACC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Beau Pribula is UVA's confirmed starter

    7.51 Y/A

    Beau Pribula is UVA's confirmed starting quarterback. Virginia's depth chart for the Wake Forest game lists Beau Pribula as the starter and Eli Holstein as the top backup. Head coach Tony Elliott said the team is sticking with Pribula even though the offense has struggled lately. The Oct. 30 matchup preview also treats Pribula as Virginia's quarterback, and Elliott has defended him. None of the opened sources reports an injury to Pribula in Virginia's last game or a limited practice this week. That covers only these sources and does not mean he is confirmed healthy. 2026 line: 1375 passing yards, 65.0% completions, 7.51 yards per attempt, 13-2 TD-INT over 8 games.

  • Gio Lopez is WAKE's projected starter

    9.42 Y/A

    Gio Lopez is WAKE's projected starting quarterback. Gio Lopez is projected, not confirmed. An Oct. 30 preview from a Virginia-focused outlet calls him Wake Forest's quarterback, and an Oct. 29 preview lists him as the team's passing leader (1,947 yards, 17 TDs). Neither source says he starts. I found no dated statement from Wake Forest, its depth chart or its coach saying he starts. No opened source reports an injury to Lopez in Wake's last game (Oct. 17 at Cal, before the bye) or a limited practice this week. That covers only these sources and does not mean he is confirmed healthy. 2026 line: 1903 passing yards, 67.8% completions, 9.42 yards per attempt, 16-1 TD-INT over 7 games.

TRENCHES

  • WAKE: 92 rushing yards allowed per game to UVA's 142.5

    50.5 YPG

    Wake Forest holds opponents to 92 rushing yards a game across 7 games, while Virginia allows 142.5 across 8. That's a sustained gap, not a one-week blip. Virginia will likely struggle to lean on the run at Wake, and Wake's own runners face the more forgiving defense in this game.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • WAKE: 37.4 points per game to UVA's 28.3

    9.2 PPG

    UVA is at 28.3 points per game over 8 games; WAKE is at 37.4 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 30. Last season UVA was at 30.8 over 14 games and WAKE at 28.1 over 13 games.

MISMATCH

  • WAKE: 284 pass yards a game to UVA's 200

    284 VS 200

    Wake Forest is throwing for 284 yards a game over seven games, up from 237.7 last season, while Virginia is at 200, down from 239.1. Wake's passing game has stepped forward and Virginia's has slipped. Wake can attack through the air at home and Virginia has to find another way to move the ball. Both moves came over a real sample, so the passing edge should carry into this game.

REPLACEMENT

  • Rico Flores Jr. (WR) is out for UVA

    OUT

    WR #11 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Tim Hamann (PK) is out for UVA

    OUT

    K #14 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Jae'Oyn Williams (QB) is out for UVA

    OUT

    ATH #17 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Omillio Agard (CB) is out for UVA

    OUT

    CB #20 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Jekail Middlebrook (RB) is out for UVA

    OUT

    RB #21 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Triston Ward (WR) is out for UVA

    OUT

    WR #23 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Caleb Hardy (LB) is out for UVA

    OUT

    LB #26 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Alex Dunn (DB) is out for UVA

    OUT

    DB #27 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Jack Stevens (RB) is out for UVA

    OUT

    RB #37 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Isaiah Reese (LB) is out for UVA

    OUT

    LB #42 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Chase Morrison (DT) is out for UVA

    OUT

    DT #46 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Tyler Simmons (DT) is out for UVA

    OUT

    DT #56 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Noah Hartsoe (OL) is out for UVA

    OUT

    OL #58 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Grant Ellinger (OL) is out for UVA

    OUT

    OL #65 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Justin Zames (TE) is out for UVA

    OUT

    TE #87 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Jason Hammond (DT) is out for UVA

    OUT

    DT #91 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Bull Richardson (DT) is out for UVA

    OUT

    DT #96 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Devon Baxter (DE) is out for UVA

    OUT

    DE #99 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Devin Cook (DB) is out for WAKE

    OUT

    DB #15 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Elijah Otieno (WR) is out for WAKE

    OUT

    WR #20 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

  • Dalton DeBoer (OL) is out for WAKE

    OUT

    OL #69 listed Out on the ACC Update 2 report ACC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-30 20:00:00 ET) (2026-10-30)

SITUATIONAL

  • WAKE has 6 more days of rest

    8d vs 14d

    Wake Forest hosts with 14 days of rest behind it, and Virginia arrives on 8. The extra week gives Wake more time for injuries and game prep, while Virginia is on a regular schedule. A 6-day gap is a mild edge for the home side, one factor to add on top of the matchup itself.

  • UVA: 46.9 penalty yards per game to WAKE's 84.1

    37.3 YDS

    UVA is at 46.9 penalty yards per game over 8 games; WAKE is at 84.1 over 7 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 30. Last season UVA was at 44.1 over 14 games and WAKE at 69.5 over 13 games.

TEAM RECORD

  • ACC game: UVA 2-3, WAKE 4-1 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the ACC. UVA is 2-3 against it, WAKE is 4-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-31.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 31, 2026 at 8:16 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betrivers, betmgm, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

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