Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack

Injuries noted

Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Tyler Walton (out) — DL; condition undisclosed.; Devin Cook (out) — DB; condition undisclosed.; Elijah Otieno (out) — WR; condition undisclosed.; Dalton DeBoer (out) — OL; condition undisclosed.; Jack Hines (questionable) — OL; Thursday designation only. Subsequent status was not verified from reporting with an exact original publication date.; Matt Herron (probable) — DL; Thursday designation only; condition undisclosed.

NC State Wolfpack: Jayden Scott (out) — RB; condition undisclosed.; Tristan Teasdell (out) — Safety; condition undisclosed.; Vander Ploog (out) — TE; condition undisclosed.; Isaiah Crowell (out) — Nickel; condition undisclosed.; AJ Richardson (out) — ILB; condition undisclosed.; Rylan Vann (out) — OL; condition undisclosed.; Yousef Mugharbil (out) — OL; condition undisclosed.; Spike Sowells Jr. (out for season) — Center; Doeren confirmed October 8 that rehabilitation had not progressed sufficiently and surgical repair was planned.; Ian Flynt (out) — TE; condition undisclosed.; Nick Konieczynski (out) — Kicker; condition undisclosed.; Carmelo McKenzie (out) — NG; condition undisclosed.; Joshisa Trader (questionable) — WR; condition undisclosed.; Adrian Farrow (questionable) — DL; condition undisclosed.; Jimarion McCrimon (questionable) — OL; condition undisclosed.; Kamen Smith (questionable) — OT; condition undisclosed.

QUARTERBACK

• CJ Bailey is NCSU's projected starter

  8.35 Y/A

  CJ Bailey is NCSU's projected starting quarterback. The October 8 matchup report discusses Bailey leading the offense against Wake Forest. It does not explicitly confirm the October 10 starter; this projection is based on game-specific reporting, not passing totals. 2026 line: 1253 passing yards, 65.3% completions, 8.35 yards per attempt, 8-4 TD-INT over 5 games.

• Gio Lopez is WAKE's projected starter

  9.13 Y/A

  Gio Lopez is WAKE's projected starting quarterback. The October 6 game preview identifies Lopez as the catalyst of Wake Forest's offense entering the October 10 NC State matchup. It does not explicitly confirm the game-day starter; this projection is based on the preview's discussion of his role, not passing totals. 2026 line: 1333 passing yards, 65.1% completions, 9.13 yards per attempt, 9-1 TD-INT over 5 games.

TRENCHES

• NCSU: 205.2 rushing yards per game to WAKE's 156

  49.2 YPG

  NC State runs for 205.2 yards a game through 5 games, a jump from 146.5 last season, while Wake Forest is at 156, matching last year's 156.2 almost exactly. Wake's number is steady; NC State's is the new piece and could cool. If the Wolfpack can keep running at home, they control the pace, which tends to shorten games and keep scoring lower.

PACE & SCRIPT

• WAKE @ NCSU carries a 57.5 market total

  57.5

  The current fanduel total is 57.5, 6 points above the 51.5 median across 27 games with posted totals on this slate.

• NCSU: 33:37 time of possession per game to WAKE's 27:45

  5:52 TOP

  NC State holds the ball 33:37 a game through 5 games, up from 29:57 last season, while Wake Forest sits at 27:45, down from 29:03. That lines up with NC State's heavier ground game. If the Wolfpack control the clock again, fewer possessions usually mean a slower game and fewer total points.

TURNOVERS

• WAKE: 0.6 turnovers committed per game to NCSU's 1.6

  1 TO

  Wake Forest is turning it over just 0.6 times a game, way down from 1.62 last season, while NC State is at 1.6, up from 1. Turnover rates swing a lot, and five games is a small window, so expect both to move back toward last season. On the road at NC State, Wake's clean ball security is helping now, but don't lean on it holding all year.

• NCSU: 1.6 takeaways per game to WAKE's 0.6

  1 TO

  NC State has forced 1.6 turnovers a game across 5 games, Wake Forest 0.6. That is one extra possession a game in NC State's favour so far, though turnover numbers this early tend to even out. In this rivalry spot, NC State has the better chance to steal a short field, which helps more if the game is expected to be close.

MISMATCH

• WAKE: 0.6 turnovers a game to NCSU's 1.6

  0.6 VS 1.6

  Wake Forest has 0.6 turnovers a game through 5 games, NC State 1.6. Last season it was nearly flipped: Wake at 1.62, NC State at 1. Turnover rates swing a lot over five games, so both teams likely move back toward the middle. If NC State cleans it up at home, Wake loses the hidden edge it has had so far, so do not price this game as if those numbers are locked in.

COVERAGE

• NCSU: 30.6% third downs allowed to WAKE's 43.5%

  12.8 PP

  NC State allows conversions on 30.6% of third downs over five games, while Wake Forest allows 43.5% over five. Five games is enough to take seriously, though the sheet does not show the opponents, so schedule strength is an open question for both. At home, NC State has the defense more likely to end drives, and a bettor weighing this game can expect Wake to need longer, cleaner drives to score.

REPLACEMENT

• Spike Sowells Jr. (OL) is out for the season for NCSU

  OUT FOR SEASON

  Starting center; October 9 reporting attributes to Dave Doeren confirmation that rehabilitation was unsuccessful and surgical repair is required. Backing The Pack: Spike Sowells officially out for remainder of 2026 (2026-10-09)

• Tyler Walton (DL) is out for WAKE

  OUT

  Defensive lineman; Thursday report. ACC Injury Report: Pitt QB Heintschel Out, NC State Down 11 (2026-10-08)

• Devin Cook (DB) is out for WAKE

  OUT

  Defensive back; Thursday report. ACC Injury Report: Pitt QB Heintschel Out, NC State Down 11 (2026-10-08)

• Elijah Otieno (WR) is out for WAKE

  OUT

  Wide receiver; Thursday report. ACC Injury Report: Pitt QB Heintschel Out, NC State Down 11 (2026-10-08)

• Dalton DeBoer (OL) is out for WAKE

  OUT

  Offensive lineman; Thursday report. ACC Injury Report: Pitt QB Heintschel Out, NC State Down 11 (2026-10-08)

• Yousef Mugharbil (OL) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  Starting left guard ruled out against Wake Forest after leaving the Louisville game injured; diagnosis undisclosed. PackInsider: NC State Hit Hard by Injuries Ahead of Wake Forest: 4 Starters Out, 3 More Questionable (2026-10-07) Backing The Pack: Wake Forest vs. NC State injury report: Well it’s not good (2026-10-08)

• Tristan Teasdell (S) is out for NCSU

  OUT

  Starting safety ruled out against Wake Forest; diagnosis undisclosed. PackInsider: NC State Hit Hard by Injuries Ahead of Wake Forest: 4 Starters Out, 3 More Questionable (2026-10-07) Backing The Pack: Wake Forest vs. NC State injury report: Well it’s not good (2026-10-08)

SITUATIONAL

• NCSU: 51.2 penalty yards per game to WAKE's 84.8

  33.6 YDS

  WAKE is at 84.8 penalty yards per game over 5 games; NCSU is at 51.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 9. Last season WAKE was at 69.5 over 13 games and NCSU at 53.8 over 13 games.

TEAM RECORD

• ACC game: WAKE 2-1, NCSU 1-1 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the ACC. WAKE is 2-1 against it, NCSU is 1-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-10.