Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
O/U 54.5 · SPREAD Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Stanford Cardinal +13.5 +108
- Published odds
- +108
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 3-57
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
BETMGM · 38 moves| Market | Opened Sep 27 4:03 PM | Close Oct 3 11:59 AM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14.5 (-110) | +2 |
| TOTAL | 54.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Price |
| MONEYLINE | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -475 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -650 | −175 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 27 4:03 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -475 · Stanford Cardinal +375 |
| Sep 27 8:05 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -500 · Stanford Cardinal +380 |
| Sep 27 9:05 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -500 · Stanford Cardinal +380 |
| Sep 28 12:05 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 28 6:00 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108) | 53.5 (-115) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -500 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 28 7:01 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108) | 54.5 (-105) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 28 8:01 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-110) | 53.5 (-115) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 28 1:46 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 28 6:18 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108) | 53.5 (-108) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 28 9:18 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 29 7:30 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -500 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 29 12:03 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108) | 53.5 (-108) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 29 1:04 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-108) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -500 · Stanford Cardinal +380 |
| Sep 29 2:04 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -500 · Stanford Cardinal +380 |
| Sep 29 3:04 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-108) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 30 4:34 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 30 5:35 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Sep 30 6:35 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Oct 1 7:30 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5 (-112) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Oct 1 8:00 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -500 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Oct 1 11:02 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -525 · Stanford Cardinal +400 |
| Oct 1 1:33 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5 (-112) | 53.5 (-112) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -550 · Stanford Cardinal +425 |
| Oct 1 2:34 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -550 · Stanford Cardinal +425 |
| Oct 1 3:04 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-112) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -550 · Stanford Cardinal +425 |
| Oct 1 4:04 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -550 · Stanford Cardinal +425 |
| Oct 1 4:34 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-108) | 53.5 (-112) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -600 · Stanford Cardinal +450 |
| Oct 1 5:04 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-108) | 53.5 (-112) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -550 · Stanford Cardinal +425 |
| Oct 1 5:35 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-110) | 53.5 (-110) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -600 · Stanford Cardinal +450 |
| Oct 2 5:21 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-112) | 53.5 (-112) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -625 · Stanford Cardinal +475 |
| Oct 2 11:04 PM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-120) | 53.5 (-112) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -625 · Stanford Cardinal +475 |
| Oct 3 5:00 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14 (-120) | 53.5 (-115) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -600 · Stanford Cardinal +450 |
| Oct 3 6:00 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-105) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -600 · Stanford Cardinal +450 |
| Oct 3 8:00 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14.5 (-108) | 53.5 (-115) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -625 · Stanford Cardinal +475 |
| Oct 3 8:31 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -15 (-108) | 54.5 (-105) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -650 · Stanford Cardinal +500 |
| Oct 3 9:00 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -650 · Stanford Cardinal +500 |
| Oct 3 9:08 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -625 · Stanford Cardinal +475 |
| Oct 3 9:18 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-108) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -650 · Stanford Cardinal +500 |
| Oct 3 10:18 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14.5 (-108) | 54.5 (-108) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -650 · Stanford Cardinal +500 |
| CLOSEOct 3 11:59 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14.5 (-110) | 54.5 (-105) | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -650 · Stanford Cardinal +500 |
The read
Stanford is a West Coast team playing a noon Eastern kickoff, and it has lost 12 consecutive road games. Wake Forest comes home after a field goal blocked with 18 seconds left beat No. 16 Louisville.
The case for Wake is real, and I take it seriously. Brandon Nicholson went down against Georgia Tech last week. Five cornerbacks are now on the out list for a defense that mostly plays man coverage. Carlos Hernandez has 28 catches for 496 yards, and he just posted 194 at Louisville, including a 77-yard score. Stanford allows 5.000 points every time an opponent reaches its 40. The market has already priced all of this: the line moved from 11.5 to 13.5, and Wake's side now costs -132.
What I keep coming back to is how Wake Forest wins. Its two wins over power-conference teams came 38-36 in overtime at Purdue and 30-27 at Louisville. The only time Wake has won by more than this number was against Akron. Miami beat the Deacons by 13. Wake's defense allows a 46.8% success rate but only 1.054 in explosiveness. That is a bend-but-don't-break unit, and it gives an underdog long, patient drives in the second half.
Wake is also missing Ny Carr and Elijah Otieno, which leaves less help around Hernandez. Penalties are a concern too: Wake committed 10 at Louisville, and Dickert made cleaning that up the priority this week.
On Stanford's side, Davis Warren has thrown 143 straight passes without an interception. The Cardinal have committed 1 turnover in four games and forced 4. Two-touchdown spreads usually get covered on short fields and giveaways, and Stanford hasn't been handing those out. Warren threw for 396 yards and 3 touchdowns against Georgia Tech, and the defense shut Georgia Tech out in the third quarter as Stanford came back from a halftime deficit.
The risk is clear. On passing downs Stanford's offense converts only 25.3% of the time. Wake's front of Langston Hardy and Gabe Kirschke has 9 sacks, and it piled up 4 sacks and 9 tackles for loss at Louisville. Stanford will also be without three offensive linemen, and it was blown out at Duke and against Miami.
The ratings are SP+ 3.7 for Wake and -8.4 for Stanford. That gap lands just short of this number on a neutral field, before home field is added. Wake Forest's own results point to close games. At +108 I need Stanford to cover less than half the time, and that is a better price than paying -132 for a team that hasn't shown it can separate from power-conference opponents.
Injuries noted
Stanford Cardinal: Dylan Stephenson (out) — Outside linebacker; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Brandon Nicholson (out) — Cornerback; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Jason Hill Jr. (out) — Cornerback; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Zaiden McDonald (out) — Defensive back; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Chris Garland (out) — Cornerback; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Breylan Thompson (out) — Cornerback; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Jack Duckworth (out) — Cornerback; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Aidan Kilstrom (out) — Offensive lineman; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Nathan Mejia (out) — Offensive lineman; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Brendan Delaney (out) — Defensive lineman; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Dara Adeyemi (out) — Offensive lineman; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Reiman Zebert (out) — Tight end; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Jahsiah Galvan (questionable) — Inside linebacker; remains questionable in Friday's report. Reason undisclosed.; Jacobi Murray (probable) — Defensive lineman; Friday update changes his designation from questionable to probable. Reason undisclosed.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Ny Carr (out) — Wide receiver; Friday update lists him out for Stanford. Reason undisclosed.; Devin Cook (out) — Defensive back; Friday update lists him out. Reason undisclosed.; Tyler Walton (out) — Defensive lineman; Friday update rules him out. Reason undisclosed.; Elijah Otieno (out) — Wide receiver; Friday update rules him out. Reason undisclosed.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Gio Lopez is WAKE's projected starter
8.97 Y/AGio Lopez is WAKE's projected starting quarterback. The October 2 game preview discusses Lopez leading Wake Forest's offense against Stanford; it does not explicitly confirm the game-day starter. 2026 line: 1068 passing yards, 63.0% completions, 8.97 yards per attempt, 7-1 TD-INT over 4 games.
Davis Warren is STAN's confirmed starter
7.49 Y/ADavis Warren is STAN's confirmed starting quarterback. Stanford's September 28 preview for the October 3 Wake Forest game explicitly identifies Warren as a starting quarterback. 2026 line: 1071 passing yards, 58.0% completions, 7.49 yards per attempt, 5-0 TD-INT over 4 games.
PACE & SCRIPT
WAKE: 31.5 points per game to STAN's 21
10.5 PPGWake Forest is scoring 31.5 points a game through four games, up from 28.1 last season, while Stanford is at 21, up slightly from 18.8. Both numbers sit near last season's levels, so the gap looks real, not a sample fluke. At home, Wake has the more reliable offense and the edge in setting the pace, so Stanford likely needs to keep this one slow and low-scoring.
MISMATCH
WAKE: 145.8 rush yards a game to STAN's 102.5
145.8 VS 102.5Wake Forest runs for 145.8 yards a game through four, Stanford 102.5. Wake was at 156.2 last season, so its run game is steady, and Stanford is up from 84.5 but still well behind. This gap looks durable on both sides. Wake leaning on the ground at home and Stanford needing to throw to keep pace is the likely shape of this game.
REPLACEMENT
Jason Hill Jr. (CB) is out for STAN
OUTCornerback; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Brandon Nicholson (CB) is out for STAN
OUTCornerback; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Dylan Stephenson (LB) is out for STAN
OUTOutside linebacker; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Elijah Otieno (WR) is out for WAKE
OUTWide receiver; Friday update rules him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Tyler Walton (DL) is out for WAKE
OUTDefensive lineman; Friday update rules him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Devin Cook (DB) is out for WAKE
OUTDefensive back; Friday update lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Ny Carr (WR) is out for WAKE
OUTWide receiver; Friday update lists him out for Stanford. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Reiman Zebert (TE) is out for STAN
OUTTight end; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Dara Adeyemi (OL) is out for STAN
OUTOffensive lineman; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Brendan Delaney (DL) is out for STAN
OUTDefensive lineman; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Nathan Mejia (OL) is out for STAN
OUTOffensive lineman; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Aidan Kilstrom (OL) is out for STAN
OUTOffensive lineman; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Jack Duckworth (CB) is out for STAN
OUTCornerback; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Breylan Thompson (CB) is out for STAN
OUTCornerback; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Chris Garland (CB) is out for STAN
OUTCornerback; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
Zaiden McDonald (DB) is out for STAN
OUTDefensive back; October 2 report lists him out. Reason undisclosed. Wake Forest Football vs. Stanford: Kickoff Time, TV Channel, Injuries & What to Know — publisher displays publication as three days ago; updated October 2, 2026, 11:24 p.m. (2026-09-30)
TEAM RECORD
ACC game: STAN 1-2, WAKE 1-1 in conference
CONFERENCEStanford has played three ACC games and lost two, while Wake Forest has split two. Stanford's three games is the biggest league sample in this group, and a 1-2 mark points to a team that has had a harder time closing out conference opponents. Wake is at home with an even record. This sets up as a game between two middle-of-the-pack league teams, so the margin is likely to come down to the details.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored October 3, 2026 at 8:09 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKCADEN HIGHANYTIME TOUCHDOWN OVER 0.5
I'm on Stanford +13.5 because I think the Cardinal stay close, and staying close means scoring. When Stanford finds the end zone, Caden High has been the one catching it. He has 15 catches for 226 yards and 3 touchdowns in three games. Davis Warren has 5 touchdown passes this season, so High has 3 of the 5. At +240 the book is asking me to believe he scores about 29% of the time. I have him a little above that.
The game script helps him. Stanford is a two-touchdown road underdog, so Warren is going to throw. He threw for 396 yards against Georgia Tech last week and hasn't thrown an interception in 143 attempts, so those drives aren't ending in giveaways. Wake's defense allows a 46.8% success rate but very few explosive plays. Against a defense like that, you don't score on 60-yard bombs. You get long drives that finish inside the 20, and that's where a quarterback looks for the receiver he trusts. High averages 15 yards a catch, so he can win down the field, but his touchdown count tells me he's also Warren's choice near the goal line.
I passed on the other Stanford options. Micah Ford has 4 rushing touchdowns, but at -141 I'm paying a favorite's price for a running back on a road underdog that is missing three offensive linemen, and that shortage hurts the run game near the goal line first. Sedrick Irvin hasn't scored on 29 carries. On the Wake side, Carlos Hernandez has a great matchup against a depleted secondary, but -159 for a receiver is too expensive.
The risk is protection. Langston Hardy and Gabe Kirschke have 9 sacks between them, Stanford converts only 25.3% on passing downs, and some drives will stall at midfield. I'm not saying High is likely to score. I'm saying +240 underprices the player who has caught most of Stanford's touchdowns in a game where Stanford has to throw.
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