Halloween night in Austin: a 6:30 kickoff, 72 degrees, and Mississippi State walks into DKR without Kamario Taylor and without a named starter. Jeff Lebby won't say until game night whether it's walk-on Billy Puckett or App State transfer AJ Swann. Texas is laying 20.5. I'm taking the points, and this is about Texas more than the Bulldogs. Texas doesn't blow out real teams. Against five power-conference opponents, the margins are +1, +3, −3, −3 and +7. The only 21-plus wins came against Texas State and UTSA. The offense stalls, especially after halftime. Texas is 11-of-49 on third down in four SEC games and has scored 6 third-quarter points in its last six games. Ole Miss turned 24-3 into 24-24 last week, and Steve Sarkisian is publicly asking for an end to the second-half slumps. Texas also gives points away. It has 8 giveaways in four SEC games, and Arch Manning threw two interceptions in each of the last two. Texas has allowed four non-offensive touchdowns in those four games: a punt return, a blocked punt, a pick-six and a fumble return. One of those turns a 24-point win into a 17-point win. Then there's the comparison. Oklahoma beat Texas 27-24 on a neutral field, then won 23-15 in Starkville while missing three field goals. Make those kicks and it's a 17-point game. Give Texas credit for home field and Mississippi State's new injuries, and I still land in the high teens. Why it's only a lean: Mississippi State's offense without Taylor is rough. It was shut out at LSU and went 1-for-11 on third down against Oklahoma. The defense has allowed 56, 31 and 23 points in its last three games. LB Jalen Smith is out for the season, and LB Tyler Lockhart and S Isaac Smith are doubtful. Texas gets Hollywood Smothers, Cam Coleman and Kaliq Lockett back, and Raleek Brown just ran for 157 yards. A blowout is on the table. But Texas leans on the run, with 40 carries last week, and its games have had between 9 and 15 drives. Fewer possessions make three touchdowns of separation hard to build. This team has also handed opponents a cheap touchdown in three of its last four SEC games. Watch the quarterback announcement and the final availability report before kickoff.
Halloween night in Austin: a 6:30 kickoff, 72 degrees, and Mississippi State walks into DKR without Kamario Taylor and without a named starter. Jeff Lebby won't say until game night whether it's walk-on Billy Puckett or App State transfer AJ Swann. Texas is laying 20.5. I'm taking the points, and this is about Texas more than the Bulldogs.
Texas doesn't blow out real teams. Against five power-conference opponents, the margins are +1, +3, −3, −3 and +7. The only 21-plus wins came against Texas State and UTSA.
The offense stalls, especially after halftime. Texas is 11-of-49 on third down in four SEC games and has scored 6 third-quarter points in its last six games. Ole Miss turned 24-3 into 24-24 last week, and Steve Sarkisian is publicly asking for an end to the second-half slumps.
Texas also gives points away. It has 8 giveaways in four SEC games, and Arch Manning threw two interceptions in each of the last two. Texas has allowed four non-offensive touchdowns in those four games: a punt return, a blocked punt, a pick-six and a fumble return. One of those turns a 24-point win into a 17-point win.
Then there's the comparison. Oklahoma beat Texas 27-24 on a neutral field, then won 23-15 in Starkville while missing three field goals. Make those kicks and it's a 17-point game. Give Texas credit for home field and Mississippi State's new injuries, and I still land in the high teens.
Why it's only a lean: Mississippi State's offense without Taylor is rough. It was shut out at LSU and went 1-for-11 on third down against Oklahoma. The defense has allowed 56, 31 and 23 points in its last three games. LB Jalen Smith is out for the season, and LB Tyler Lockhart and S Isaac Smith are doubtful. Texas gets Hollywood Smothers, Cam Coleman and Kaliq Lockett back, and Raleek Brown just ran for 157 yards. A blowout is on the table.
But Texas leans on the run, with 40 carries last week, and its games have had between 9 and 15 drives. Fewer possessions make three touchdowns of separation hard to build. This team has also handed opponents a cheap touchdown in three of its last four SEC games.
Watch the quarterback announcement and the final availability report before kickoff.
Mississippi State +20.5