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NCAAF · Sat, Sep 19 · 8:00 PM

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas Longhorns

O/U 58.5 · SPREAD Texas Longhorns -24.5

GARY'S PICK
Texas -30.5
NCAAFvs UTSA· -102

Texas
-30.5

-102 · LOST · UTSA 6 · TEX 30

UTSA

The pick & result

Published pick
Texas Longhorns -30.5 -102
Published odds
-102
Result
Lost
Final score
6-30

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 77 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 14 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 19 7:14 PM
Move
SPREADTexas Longhorns -30 (-110)Texas Longhorns -30 (-108)Price
TOTAL58.5 (-105)58.5 (-112)Price
MONEYLINETexas Longhorns -10000Texas Longhorns -5000+5000
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 14 6:00 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-110)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -10000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2800
Sep 14 8:01 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-110)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -10000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2500
Sep 14 9:00 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-110)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -10000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2500
Sep 14 6:33 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-110)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -10000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2500
Sep 14 7:33 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -10000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2500
Sep 15 8:30 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-110)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -10000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2500
Sep 16 11:31 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -10000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2500
Sep 16 2:31 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-110)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 16 3:32 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 16 4:32 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 17 1:02 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 17 2:32 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 17 4:02 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 17 5:11 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-118)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 17 5:21 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 17 5:41 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 17 6:01 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 17 6:51 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 17 9:01 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-118)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 17 9:31 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 17 11:01 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 7:30 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 9:00 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 9:31 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 10:31 AMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-118)58.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 12:32 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 3:03 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-118)58.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 4:30 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 5:00 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-118)58.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 5:20 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 9:02 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-118)58.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 9:32 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 10:32 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-118)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 18 11:02 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 5:00 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 8:00 AMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 8:30 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 8:40 AMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 8:51 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 9:00 AMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 9:11 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 9:31 AMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-118)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 9:52 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 10:11 AMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 10:22 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 10:32 AMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 10:42 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 10:53 AMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 11:00 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 11:03 AMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 11:15 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 11:27 AMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 11:30 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 11:40 AMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 11:50 AMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 12:01 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 12:13 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 12:48 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 12:56 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 1:00 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 1:08 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-115)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 1:57 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 1:58 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-118)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 2:08 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 2:31 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 2:49 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 3:01 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 3:17 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 3:19 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 3:29 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 4:10 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-110)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 4:15 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 4:52 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 6:03 PMTexas Longhorns -29.5 (-118)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 6:15 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 7:03 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
Sep 19 7:07 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-112)58.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200
CLOSESep 19 7:14 PMTexas Longhorns -30 (-108)58.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -5000 · UTSA Roadrunners +2200

The read

Saturday night in Austin brings unbeaten UTSA into the home of the newly crowned No. 1 Longhorns. Both teams arrive after comeback wins, with Texas coming off its Ohio State escape.

I’m laying the points because UTSA’s defensive problems give Texas a credible route to sustained scoring. The Roadrunners allowed Texas State 289 rushing yards, and Jeff Traylor identified incorrect run fits and tackling breakdowns. Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown can test those weaknesses, giving Steve Sarkisian opportunities to build the passing game around favorable situations for Arch Manning, Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman.

Finishing possessions is the clearest separation in the early results. Texas has averaged 5.846 points per scoring opportunity; UTSA has averaged 3.727. Those are drives reaching the opponent’s 40. Texas has also allowed only 2.308 points per opportunity. I expect that combination—Texas converting its advances into touchdowns while making UTSA work harder to finish—to matter more than UTSA’s advantage in raw offensive efficiency.

The defensive assignment is to disrupt UTSA before its tempo establishes a rhythm. Owen McCown has completed 72.5% of his passes without an interception, so this is a legitimate obstacle. But UTSA’s success rate falls from 62.9% on standard downs to 29.7% on passing downs. Texas’s four sacks and 13 tackles for loss offer evidence that its front can create the difficult situations UTSA has struggled to overcome.

The risk is real: Manning has thrown two interceptions, UTSA has generated takeaways, and a few stalled Texas possessions could protect the underdog’s cushion. Texas’s own running game has also been stopped at or behind the line on 21.3% of carries. I’m nevertheless backing its offense to exploit the specific defensive mistakes UTSA is trying to repair, with Texas’s substantially tougher opening schedule strengthening that judgment. That is my case for laying this spread.

Injuries noted

Texas Longhorns: Nick Townsend (doubtful) — Sarkisian said the tight end likely would not play against UTSA after suffering a knee injury on punt coverage against Ohio State.; Derrek Cooper (probable) — Sarkisian said he expected the running back to return against UTSA after an ankle injury kept him out against Ohio State.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Owen McCown is UTSA's confirmed starter

    7.09 Y/A

    Owen McCown is UTSA's confirmed starting quarterback. UTSA’s official Texas-week depth chart lists McCown first at quarterback, ahead of Brandon Tennison, without an OR designation. 2026 line: 489 passing yards, 72.5% completions, 7.09 yards per attempt, 4-0 TD-INT over 2 games.

  • Arch Manning is TEX's confirmed starter

    7.83 Y/A

    Arch Manning is TEX's confirmed starting quarterback. Current-week coverage identifies Manning as Texas’ second-year starter, and the official UTSA game notes feature him as the Longhorns’ quarterback. No quarterback competition or availability concern was reported. 2026 line: 501 passing yards, 67.2% completions, 7.83 yards per attempt, 5-2 TD-INT over 2 games.

TRENCHES

  • TEX's front holds runners to 105.5 fewer yards per game

    105.5 YPG

    UTSA is at 233 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; TEX is at 127.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-18.

  • UTSA is +47 rush yards per game

    47 YPG

    UTSA is at 195 rushing yards per game over 2 games; TEX is at 148 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

TURNOVERS

  • UTSA commits 1.5 fewer turnovers per game

    1.5 TO

    UTSA is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; TEX is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

MISMATCH

  • TEX on the money downs — 64.5% on third down to UTSA's 25%

    64.5 VS 25

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: 3rd down % — UTSA 25, TEX 64.5, over 2 and 2 game samples.

SITUATIONAL

  • TEX gives away 91.5 fewer penalty yards per game

    91.5 YDS

    UTSA is at 115 penalty yards per game over 2 games; TEX is at 23.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-18.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 19, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betmgm, fanatics, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

1
  • GARY'S PICK
    HOLLYWOOD SMOTHERSRECEIVING YARDS OVER 15.5
    NCAAFTexas· -118

    Hollywood Smothers
    Receiving Yards over 15.5

    -118 · LOST · ACTUAL 14

    Texas

    I’m taking Smothers over 15.5 receiving yards because the threshold is modest for a back who has already produced six catches for 57 yards through two games. UTSA’s run-fit and tackling problems should encourage Texas to isolate Smothers in space with screens and quick throws, particularly if the Roadrunners crowd the box to slow the rushing attack. A potential blowout creates a volume concern, but this number can be cleared with two productive receptions and does not require Smothers to remain heavily involved deep into the second half.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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