Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma Sooners

Injuries noted

Texas Longhorns: Kaliq Lockett (out) — WR #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Justus Terry (questionable) — DL #15 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Jordan Coleman (out) — OL #78 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Zion Williams (out) — DL #96 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

Oklahoma Sooners: Taylor Heim (out) — LB #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Trell Harris (out) — WR #11 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Xavier Robinson (out) — RB #21 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Trynae Washington (out) — TE #22 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Eli Bowen (questionable) — DB #23 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Jacobe Johnson (out) — DB #24 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Eddy Pierre-Louis (doubtful) — OL #55 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report; Michael Fasusi (out) — OL #56 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Fred Hinton (out) — OL #72 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jack Van Dorselaer (probable) — TE #88 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report

QUARTERBACK

• John Mateer is OU's projected starter

  8.10 Y/A

  John Mateer is OU's projected starting quarterback. SI (Oct. 7, 2026) quotes Brent Venables during the bye week: 'John's our starting quarterback.' SI expects Mateer to take the first offensive drive but says a change 'could come at any moment' Saturday. Mateer has 883 passing yards, 8 TD and 4 INT, plus 2 lost fumbles (FOX Sports, Oct. 6). None of the opened sources contains a game-day starter announcement. No current reporting was found on Whitt Newbauer, Jett Niu or Bowe Bentley. 2026 line: 883 passing yards, 66.1% completions, 8.10 yards per attempt, 8-4 TD-INT over 4 games.

• Arch Manning is TEX's projected starter

  7.47 Y/A

  Arch Manning is TEX's projected starting quarterback. FOX Sports (Oct. 6, 2026) describes Manning as the 'field general leading an undefeated Texas team' and treats him as Texas's quarterback for the Red River Rivalry. He has 862 passing yards and 7 TD and is called an early-season Heisman contender. None of the opened sources contains an official game-day starter announcement. None of the opened availability reports (Oct. 8-9) lists a Texas quarterback. No current reporting was found on MJ Morris, Karle Lacey Jr., Luke Dunham or Dia Bell. 2026 line: 866 passing yards, 63.8% completions, 7.47 yards per attempt, 7-3 TD-INT over 4 games.

TRENCHES

• TEX: 146.3 rushing yards per game to OU's 99

  47.3 YPG

  TEX is at 146.3 rushing yards per game over 4 games; OU is at 99 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 9. Last season TEX was at 137.8 over 13 games and OU at 118.5 over 13 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

• TEX @ OU carries a 39.5 market total

  39.5

  The current fanduel total is 39.5, 12 points below the 51.5 median across 27 games with posted totals on this slate.

• TEX: 33.3 points per game to OU's 22

  11.3 PPG

  Texas is scoring 33.3 a game, a bit above its 30.5 last season, while Oklahoma has dropped to 22 from 26.2, both over four games. Texas looks steady and Oklahoma's dip could bounce back with a small sample. On the road at Oklahoma, Texas brings the more dependable offense, and this rivalry spot means both teams' scoring numbers can swing.

TURNOVERS

• TEX: 1 turnover committed per game to OU's 2.5

  1.5 TO

  Oklahoma has turned it over 2.5 times a game this season, up from 1.23 last season, over just four games. Texas is at 1, close to last season's 0.69. The OU number should come down as the season goes, but turnovers in a rivalry game can swing things fast.

MISMATCH

• TEX: 1 turnovers a game to OU's 2.5

  1 VS 2.5

  Texas is giving the ball away once a game over four games, up a bit from 0.69 last season, while Oklahoma is at 2.5, double last season's 1.23. Turnover rates swing a lot over four games, so Oklahoma's number is likely to come down. In a rivalry game, those giveaways can decide it. Oklahoma has to protect the ball to stay in this game.

REPLACEMENT

• Kaliq Lockett (WR) is out for TEX

  OUT

  WR #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Jordan Coleman (OL) is out for TEX

  OUT

  OL #78 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Zion Williams (DL) is out for TEX

  OUT

  DL #96 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Taylor Heim (LB) is out for OU

  OUT

  LB #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Trell Harris (WR) is out for OU

  OUT

  WR #11 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Xavier Robinson (RB) is out for OU

  OUT

  RB #21 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Trynae Washington (TE) is out for OU

  OUT

  TE #22 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Jacobe Johnson (DB) is out for OU

  OUT

  DB #24 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Michael Fasusi (OL) is out for OU

  OUT

  OL #56 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Fred Hinton (OL) is out for OU

  OUT

  OL #72 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

• Eddy Pierre-Louis (OL) is doubtful for OU

  DOUBTFUL

  OL #55 listed Doubtful on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-09 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-09)

SITUATIONAL

• TEX: 50% third-down conversion rate to OU's 34%

  16 PP

  Texas is moving the chains on half its third downs through 4 games, while Oklahoma sits at 34%. Last season the two were nearly even, 39.2% for Texas and 38.6% for Oklahoma, so both teams have drifted far from their norm in a short sample. Expect some pull back toward the high thirties on each side. In this matchup, Texas extending drives is the edge to watch, but price it as a modest gap rather than the full 16 points.

• TEX: 23 first downs per game to OU's 16.3

  6.8 FD

  TEX is at 23 first downs per game over 4 games; OU is at 16.3 over 4 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 9. Last season TEX was at 19 over 13 games and OU at 18.5 over 13 games.

TEAM RECORD

• SEC game: TEX 1-0, OU 0-1 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the SEC. TEX is 1-0 against it, OU is 0-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-10.

AFTER GARY

• TEX -7.5 → -8.5

  GARY +1

  Gary's number was -7.5; the same book now shows -8.5.