Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns

Injuries noted

Florida Gators: Vernell Brown III (questionable) — WR #1 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Bailey Stockton (questionable) — WR #3 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Aaron Philo (questionable) — QB #12 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Duke Clark (out) — RB #20 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

Texas Longhorns: Kaliq Lockett (out) — WR #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Justus Terry (probable) — DL #15 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Jaydon Chatman (out) — OL #75 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jordan Coleman (probable) — OL #78 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report

QUARTERBACK

• Arch Manning is TEX's projected starter

  7.66 Y/A

  Arch Manning is TEX's projected starting quarterback. Florida's October 16 game preview discusses Manning as Texas' quarterback against Florida; it does not explicitly announce the game-day starter. 2026 line: 1126 passing yards, 63.3% completions, 7.66 yards per attempt, 10-5 TD-INT over 5 games.

• Tramell Jones Jr. is FLA's projected starter

  8.69 Y/A

  Tramell Jones Jr. is FLA's projected starting quarterback. October 16, 7:34 p.m. ET: CBS sources indicated Jones was trending toward his first start. 2026 line: 252 passing yards, 79.3% completions, 8.69 yards per attempt, 2-2 TD-INT over 4 games.

TRENCHES

• FLA: 197.8 rushing yards per game to TEX's 141.4

  56.4 YPG

  Florida is running for 197.8 a game, way up from 136.8 last season, while Texas is basically where it was at 141.4 versus 137.8. Florida's surge over 6 games could cool against a better defense, and Texas at home is a stiffer test. If Florida can keep the ground game going, it controls tempo, but expect the gap to shrink.

PACE & SCRIPT

• TEX: 16 points allowed per game to FLA's 29

  13 PPG

  Texas is allowing 16 points a game over five games, down from 20.3 last season. Florida has gone the other way, from 24 to 29 over six. The trend runs in Texas's favor on both sides of this matchup. At home, the Texas defense is the side setting the tone, and Florida's defense has not shown it can hold down scoring.

• FLA: 41.7 points per game to TEX's 31.4

  10.3 PPG

  Florida is scoring 41.7 points per game over 6 games, nearly double its 21.6 from last season, while Texas is at 31.4 over 5, right in line with last season's 30.5. Texas looks like the same offense; Florida's jump is the one to question, since six games can be padded by soft opponents. A trip to Texas is a real test of whether that scoring is new identity or early schedule.

MISMATCH

• TEX: 16 points allowed a game to FLA's 29

  16 VS 29

  Texas allows 16 points a game over five games, while Florida gives up 29 over six. Both moved in opposite directions from last season, with Texas improving from 20.3 and Florida slipping from 24. Six games is enough that Florida's leaky defense looks like a real problem. On the road at Texas, Florida probably has to win a high-scoring game, which is a hard ask against a defense this stingy.

COVERAGE

• TEX: 168.4 passing yards allowed per game to FLA's 268.7

  100.3 YPG

  Texas allows 168.4 passing yards a game over 5 games, so opponents haven't thrown well against them. Florida gives up 268.7 over 6. The sheet doesn't list opponents, so we can't tell how much passing volume they faced. At home, Texas's pass defense is the stronger unit, and the Gators' secondary is the one more likely to give up big plays.

• TEX: 30.9% third downs allowed to FLA's 46.7%

  15.9 PP

  Texas lets opponents convert 30.9% of third downs over five games, and Florida allows 46.7% over six. That means Texas gets off the field and Florida keeps drives alive for opponents. We don't know who either team faced, so this could shrink against better offenses. Florida's offense likely faces longer drives that stall, while Texas should get extra plays, which tilts toward Texas controlling the clock.

REPLACEMENT

• Duke Clark (RB) is out for FLA

  OUT

  RB #20 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

• Kaliq Lockett (WR) is out for TEX

  OUT

  WR #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

• Jaydon Chatman (OL) is out for TEX

  OUT

  OL #75 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-16 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-16)

TEAM RECORD

• SEC game: FLA 2-2, TEX 1-1 in conference

  CONFERENCE

  These two share the SEC. FLA is 2-2 against it, TEX is 1-1. 2026 standings through 2026-10-17.

AFTER GARY

• TEX -11.5 → -13.5

  GARY +2

  Gary's number was -11.5; the same book now shows -13.5.