Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  ARCH MANNINGPASSING YARDS UNDER 251.5

  NCAAFTexas· -114

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 201

  GARY'S TAKE

  The book is pricing the Manning who opened the season. I'm betting on the Manning of the last two weeks. His passing yardage has fallen every week: 305, then 196, then 164. That works out to about 222 a game, and only the opener cleared this number. In the second half against UTSA, after he took a hard hit, he went 5 of 16 for 45 yards. Getting to 252 would take his best game of the season, and he would have to play it in his first road start of the year, in the building Sarkisian himself called probably the loudest in the country. The matchup points the same way. Texas ranks 107th in offensive explosiveness, and Tennessee ranks 13th at limiting explosive plays. A passer who has not been hitting chunk plays will struggle to pile up yardage against a defense that takes them away. He would need a long, patient day of completions, and Tennessee's offense will not leave him many snaps. The Vols run for nearly 300 yards a game, and ball control shortens the game for the opposing quarterback. The total has dropped from 57.5 to 54.5 this week, so the market expects the same kind of game. I see the risk. Dylan Lewis and Edrees Farooq are both out, which leaves the Tennessee secondary thin, and Wingo and Coleman are good enough to punish that. If Texas falls behind early, Manning will throw more. That is why I'm not betting this heavily. Even so, a crowd this loud, a defense that limits explosive plays and a quarterback whose yardage has dropped three straight weeks make the under at 251.5 the right side. It also fits with Tennessee plus the points.

  ×

  Arch Manning
  Passing Yards under 251.5

  -114 · CASHED · ACTUAL 201

  Texas

  Read Gary’s Take

  The book is pricing the Manning who opened the season. I'm betting on the Manning of the last two weeks.

  His passing yardage has fallen every week: 305, then 196, then 164. That works out to about 222 a game, and only the opener cleared this number. In the second half against UTSA, after he took a hard hit, he went 5 of 16 for 45 yards. Getting to 252 would take his best game of the season, and he would have to play it in his first road start of the year, in the building Sarkisian himself called probably the loudest in the country.

  The matchup points the same way. Texas ranks 107th in offensive explosiveness, and Tennessee ranks 13th at limiting explosive plays. A passer who has not been hitting chunk plays will struggle to pile up yardage against a defense that takes them away. He would need a long, patient day of completions, and Tennessee's offense will not leave him many snaps. The Vols run for nearly 300 yards a game, and ball control shortens the game for the opposing quarterback. The total has dropped from 57.5 to 54.5 this week, so the market expects the same kind of game.

  I see the risk. Dylan Lewis and Edrees Farooq are both out, which leaves the Tennessee secondary thin, and Wingo and Coleman are good enough to punish that. If Texas falls behind early, Manning will throw more. That is why I'm not betting this heavily. Even so, a crowd this loud, a defense that limits explosive plays and a quarterback whose yardage has dropped three straight weeks make the under at 251.5 the right side. It also fits with Tennessee plus the points.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.