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NCAAF · Sat, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM

Ole Miss Rebels at Texas Longhorns

O/U 53.5 · SPREAD Texas Longhorns -3.5 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

GARY'S PICK
Ole Miss +3.5
NCAAF@ Texas· -122

Ole Miss
+3.5

-122 · LOST · MISS 27 · TEX 34

Texas

The pick & result

Published pick
Ole Miss Rebels +3.5 -122
Published odds
-122
Result
Lost
Final score
27-34

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 66 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 18 1:02 PM
Close
Sat 7:00 PM
Move
SPREADTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-102)Texas Longhorns -3 (-112)−½
TOTAL52.5 (-108)54.5 (-115)+2
MONEYLINETexas Longhorns -160Texas Longhorns -155+5
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 18 1:02 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-102)52.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Oct 18 2:02 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-105)52.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Oct 18 4:03 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Oct 18 5:03 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Oct 18 6:03 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-108)52.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Oct 18 7:04 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-110)52.5 (-102)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 18 9:04 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-110)52.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 19 12:34 AMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-110)52.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 19 6:00 AMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-108)52.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 19 11:31 AMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-105)52.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 19 12:31 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-105)52.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Oct 19 1:31 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-108)52.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 19 2:31 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-108)52.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Oct 19 4:31 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-108)54.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Oct 19 5:31 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-102)53.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 19 6:31 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-118)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 19 11:25 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-115)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Oct 20 12:25 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-118)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 20 6:31 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-118)53.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 20 10:01 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-118)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 20 1:46 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-118)53.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 20 4:47 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-115)53.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 20 6:47 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-115)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 20 8:17 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-108)53.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 20 9:47 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-118)54.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 21 6:01 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-118)54.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 21 7:30 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-118)54.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 21 12:32 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-102)54.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 21 2:02 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-102)54.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 21 4:32 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-105)54.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 21 5:02 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-102)54.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Oct 21 11:22 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-105)54.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Thu 12:28 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-102)54.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Thu 12:58 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-105)54.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +140
Thu 5:23 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-105)54.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Thu 7:54 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-102)54.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Thu 8:24 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-105)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Thu 9:54 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-102)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Fri 6:31 AMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-102)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Fri 12:02 PMTexas Longhorns -3.5 (-102)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Fri 1:32 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-115)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Fri 2:32 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-115)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -165 · Ole Miss Rebels +138
Fri 4:28 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Fri 4:39 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Fri 5:10 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +135
Fri 7:30 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Fri 8:12 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 12:35 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 8:30 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 9:00 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)54.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 9:21 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 9:41 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)54.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 10:01 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 10:21 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)54.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 10:32 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 10:48 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)54.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 10:53 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-112)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 11:33 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)54.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 11:43 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)53.5 (-120)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 11:53 AMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)54.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 12:24 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)54.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 3:46 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-110)54.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
Sat 5:29 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-110)54.5 (-108)Texas Longhorns -150 · Ole Miss Rebels +125
Sat 6:19 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-110)54.5 (-105)Texas Longhorns -150 · Ole Miss Rebels +125
Sat 6:29 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-110)54.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -150 · Ole Miss Rebels +125
Sat 6:39 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)54.5 (-110)Texas Longhorns -160 · Ole Miss Rebels +130
CLOSESat 7:00 PMTexas Longhorns -3 (-112)54.5 (-115)Texas Longhorns -155 · Ole Miss Rebels +130

The read

It's Saturday night in Austin, 83 degrees under an overcast sky. A Texas team coming off back-to-back losses is laying 3.5 to the No. 7 team in the country.

Friday night's injury report is why I'm on Ole Miss. Colin Simmons is out, and so is fellow edge rusher Richard Wesley. Simmons has 10.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss in six games, more than half of what this pass rush has produced. Texas's defense is the whole case for Texas: it held Tennessee, Oklahoma and Florida to 155 passing yards or fewer each. Now it loses its best player against an offense built to punish exactly that. Ole Miss hasn't allowed more than two sacks in any game, Patrick Kutas is off the injury report, and Trinidad Chambliss threw for 363 yards against an LSU defense allowing 16.2 points a game.

Then there's the gap between the offenses. Ole Miss has piled up yards against everyone: 498 against Missouri, 426 against LSU, 488 against Louisville. Texas managed 272 against a Florida defense ranked 113th in points allowed. It ran for 61 yards on 36 carries at Tennessee, and it went 2-of-10, 3-of-14 and 3-of-12 on third down over its last three games. Arch Manning is efficient with time to throw, but the Texas line gave up 6 sacks at Tennessee and 5 against Florida, and Jaydon Chatman is out again.

Don't read too much into the losing streak. Texas moved the ball better than Oklahoma and lost to a pick-six and a blocked-punt touchdown. This is a great defense with a below-average offense, and the great defense just got thinner.

Hollywood Smothers being out matters little, since Raleek Brown has matched his production. Texas's real path is Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V against an Ole Miss secondary missing safeties Edwin Joseph, MJ Preston and Nascar McCoy. Missouri threw for 339 yards on that secondary last week, which is why this isn't a max play. But Joseph and McCoy missed that game too, and Ole Miss still held Missouri to 3 points.

The storylines are already in the number: Manning playing the school his grandfather and uncle starred at, a desperate Texas, Kewan Lacy coming home. I make this closer to Texas -1 or -2. Even at -122, Ole Miss +3.5 is the side.

Injuries noted

Ole Miss Rebels: Izaiah Hartrup (out) — WR #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Edwin Joseph (out) — S #14 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; MJ Preston (out) — S #19 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Ant Davis Jr. (out) — LB #26 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Pat Broomfield (out) — CB #27 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Kervin Johnson Jr. (out) — WR #27 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Nascar McCoy (out) — S #46 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Terez Davis (questionable) — OL #55 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Brycen Sanders (probable) — OL #62 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Emanuel Faulkner (out) — OL #71 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

Texas Longhorns: Colin Simmons (out) — EDG #1 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Hollywood Smothers (out) — RB #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Derrek Cooper (probable) — RB #5 listed Probable on the SEC Update 2 report; Kaliq Lockett (out) — WR #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jaydon Chatman (out) — OL #75 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report; Jackson Christian (questionable) — OL #76 listed Questionable on the SEC Update 2 report; Richard Wesley (out) — EDG #99 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Trinidad Chambliss is MISS's projected starter

    7.98 Y/A

    Trinidad Chambliss is MISS's projected starting quarterback. Ole Miss's October 23 game preview discusses Chambliss as its quarterback for the Texas matchup, but the retrieved school preview does not explicitly declare the starter. 2026 line: 1676 passing yards, 67.6% completions, 7.98 yards per attempt, 14-4 TD-INT over 6 games.

  • Arch Manning is TEX's confirmed starter

    7.78 Y/A

    Arch Manning is TEX's confirmed starting quarterback. On October 19, Sarkisian explicitly said Manning would remain the starting quarterback against Ole Miss. Backup KJ Lacey was receiving first-team practice repetitions. 2026 line: 1299 passing yards, 64.1% completions, 7.78 yards per attempt, 11-5 TD-INT over 6 games.

TRENCHES

  • TEX: 106.7 rushing yards allowed per game to MISS's 153.5

    46.8 YPG

    MISS is at 153.5 rushing yards allowed per game over 6 games; TEX is at 106.7 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 23.

MISMATCH

  • MISS: 290.7 pass yards a game to TEX's 227

    290.7 VS 227

    Ole Miss throws for 290.7 yards a game through six games, down a bit from 313.3 last season but still well ahead of Texas at 227, which fell from 250.7. Both offenses throw a little less than last season, but Ole Miss remains the stronger passing team. The gap looks stable given last season's numbers. On the road at Texas, Ole Miss will likely lean on the pass, and Texas needs to slow it down to keep the game manageable.

COVERAGE

  • TEX: 166.2 passing yards allowed per game to MISS's 236.5

    70.3 YPG

    MISS is at 236.5 passing yards allowed per game over 6 games; TEX is at 166.2 over 6 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 23.

REPLACEMENT

  • Izaiah Hartrup (WR) is out for MISS

    OUT

    WR #12 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Edwin Joseph (S) is out for MISS

    OUT

    S #14 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • MJ Preston (S) is out for MISS

    OUT

    S #19 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Ant Davis Jr. (LB) is out for MISS

    OUT

    LB #26 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Pat Broomfield (CB) is out for MISS

    OUT

    CB #27 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Kervin Johnson Jr. (WR) is out for MISS

    OUT

    WR #27 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Nascar McCoy (S) is out for MISS

    OUT

    S #46 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Emanuel Faulkner (OL) is out for MISS

    OUT

    OL #71 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Colin Simmons (EDGE) is out for TEX

    OUT

    EDG #1 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Hollywood Smothers (RB) is out for TEX

    OUT

    RB #2 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Kaliq Lockett (WR) is out for TEX

    OUT

    WR #7 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Jaydon Chatman (OL) is out for TEX

    OUT

    OL #75 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

  • Richard Wesley (EDGE) is out for TEX

    OUT

    EDG #99 listed Out on the SEC Update 2 report SEC availability report (Update 2, published 2026-10-23 19:10:00 CT) (2026-10-23)

SITUATIONAL

  • No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas

    #7 VS #19

    Voters have Ole Miss near the top at 5-1, while Texas slid twelve spots after a second loss and sits at 4-2 with 440 points to Ole Miss's 1360. That is a wide respect gap for two teams separated by one loss, and Texas's drop reads as voters punishing recent results more than a full rethink. Texas at home with a ranking to protect is the classic spot where a falling team's price can be softer than its talent.

  • MISS: 290.7 team passing yards per game to TEX's 227

    63.7 YPG

    MISS is at 290.7 team passing yards per game over 6 games; TEX is at 227 over 6 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 23. Last season MISS was at 313.3 over 15 games and TEX at 250.7 over 13 games.

TEAM RECORD

  • SEC game: MISS 3-1, TEX 1-2 in conference

    CONFERENCE

    These two share the SEC. MISS is 3-1 against it, TEX is 1-2. 2026 standings through 2026-10-24.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 24, 2026 at 8:11 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, caesars, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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